We're changing our WunderBlogs. Learn more about this important update on our FAQ page.

Gordon's remains trouble Ireland; Helene generating big waves; 96L no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on September 21, 2006

A strong tropical wave with a well-defined surface circulation is near 12N 34W, about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave was officially designated as "Invest 96L" by the Hurricane Center yesterday. The storm is under about 10 knots of vertical wind shear and is over warm ocean waters of about 28C, so some slow development is possible over the next few days as it moves northwest over the open Atlantic. Shower activity has decreased with the system this morning, though, and the models are less enthusiastic about developing it than they were yesterday. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows winds of just 15-20 mph surrounding the low. The long range GFS model predicts that this system will turn north and recurve out to sea in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. It is pretty unlikely 96L will ever be a threat to any land areas. The next wave that emerges off the coast of Africa this weekend has a better chance of making it across the Atlantic to threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands, though, according to the latest runs of the GFS model.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 96L.

Hurricane Helene headed out to sea
Hurricane Helene has begun her expected turn towards the north, and is on track to recurve harmlessly out to sea. Helene has weakened more, thanks to wind shear from a trough to her west. However, Helene's winds have blown long enough and strong enough over a vast area of ocean to cause large swells that have arrived along the East Coast of the U.S., prompting the issuance of rip current advisories from Florida to Maryland. Bermuda is also seeing some impressive huge waves today along its shores. The animation of the wave forecast from the Global Wave Model shows that these waves should die down beginning Sunday.

Gordon is gone, but don't tell the golfers that!
Hurricane Gordon degenerated to potent extratropical low yesterday, bringing heavy rain and high winds to Spain. The remnants of Gordon are headed to Ireland today, where the storm's wind and rains will play havoc with practice rounds for golf's famed Ryder Cup tournament. The tournament begins Friday. Radar imagery from the Irish Meteorological Service shows plenty of heavy rain over the island, and storm warnings for sustained winds of 50 mph, gusting to 75 mph have been issued for the waters off the west coast of Ireland. However, the tournament is being played in Straffan on the eastern end of the island, where the weather should be considerably better. Winds at Dublin Airport near Straffan were 26 mph at 9:30am local time this morning. The golf course where the tournament is to be played was closed this morning, due to wind gusts of 40 mph. Several trees were blown down on the course by the winds.


Figure 2. Hurricane Gordon as a Category 1 hurricane at 18:15 GMT, Sept. 17, 2006, as seen from the Space Shuttle Atlantis. Image credit: NASA.

Second warmest summer on record for the U.S.
Temperatures in August in the U.S. cooled down a bit compared to July, but were still well above average. According to the National Climatic Data Center, August 2006 ranked as the 11th warmest August on record. The record warmest August was 1983. The summer of 2006 (June, July, and August) ranks as the second warmest summer ever recorded. Only the summer of 1936 was hotter, by just 0.2F. The summer heat wave this year killed more than 200 people, 160 of them in California. For the period January through August, 2006 beats out 1934 as the warmest year on record in the U.S. by a huge margin, nearly 3F. With weak El Nino conditions expected to keep temperatures warmer than average across the northern 2/3 of the country this winter, it appears likely that 2006 will be the warmest year on record in the U.S.

Nationally, precipitation was above-normal for August, ranking as the 17th wettest August in the 112-year record (1895-2006). This year's January-August precipitation ranks it as the 26th driest period in the 112-year record.

Third warmest summer on record globally
June-August marked the third warmest summer globally, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The summer of 1998 was the warmest on record, 0.64C (1.15F) warmer than 2006. For the year to date, January-August, 2006 ranks as the 6th warmest such period globally.

Arctic sea ice recovers a bit
June and July saw the record lowest amount of Arctic sea ice ever recorded for those months, due to unusually warm conditions near the North Pole. However, temperatures near the pole were 1 to 2C cooler than average in August, which slowed down the melting rate. Arctic sea ice extent for August was slightly higher than the record low August coverage measured in 2005.

Tonight: the Barometer Bob Show
I'll be a guest once more tonight on the Barometer Bob Show. Bob will be interviewing me about my flight into Hurricane Hugo with the Hurricane Hunters 17 years ago. I'm lucky to be alive to tell the story!

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

You be able to leave comments on this blog.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 525 - 475

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

524. 1900hurricane
11:25 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
That's a cool loop.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
523. WPBHurricane05
11:25 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
New York Hurricane....Hasnt happend yet, but it could happen tomorrow...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
520. CybrTeddy
11:24 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
sandcrab39565
Please i dont want for u to start a fight it was
my opinion!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
519. hurricane23
11:23 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Ok guys here is animated GIF of Hurricane Isabel's eye...


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
518. 1900hurricane
11:23 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Hi STORMTOP!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
517. sandcrab39565
11:23 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
"New york dont wish that to happen this year or next" Wishcasting? No Sick? good possibility. Childish? very much so.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
516. WPBHurricane05
11:22 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
i see 96L is heading west (westcaster)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
514. 1900hurricane
11:22 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
The sun is now coming up over Yagi.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
513. CybrTeddy
11:20 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Posted By: sandcrab39565 at 11:18 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

Then cyberT I suggest you never wish anything like Katrina on anyone until you know first hand what you are wishing for.


OMG i never want SOMETHING LIKE THAT TO HAPPENI HATTED KATRINA!!
SO STOP CALLING ME A WISHCASTER!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
512. 1900hurricane
11:20 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Oh. OK.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
511. WPBHurricane05
11:19 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
the Labor Day Hurricane (hehehe) just kiding
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
510. 1900hurricane
11:19 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
The super typhoon looks like it's getting sick.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
509. CybrTeddy
11:18 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Posted By: 1900hurricane at 11:17 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

CyberTeddy is from Orlando (It says on her blog).


That needs to be uptated i just move to Tampa
in April
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
508. sandcrab39565
11:18 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Then cyberT I suggest you never wish anything like Katrina on anyone until you know first hand what you are wishing for.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
507. ILoveHurricanes
11:18 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
the great hurricane of 1900 Hurricane23....go :D
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
506. 1900hurricane
11:18 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Africa/Europe WV
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
505. CybrTeddy
11:18 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:15 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

I'll tell you what name me a hurricane past or present and i will post you a pic.


Plz do so
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
504. 1900hurricane
11:17 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
CyberTeddy is from Orlando (It says on her blog).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
503. sandcrab39565
11:16 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Traggic yes Cool NO
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
502. HurricaneMyles
11:16 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
WPBhurricane05...Yea, that 'cold' front was much more then a dividing line between moist and dry air. It felt better today because of the lower humidity, but it was still 90.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
501. CybrTeddy
11:15 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Florida and from a tropical wave thats coming off of africa
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
500. hurricane23
7:14 PM EDT on September 21, 2006
I'll tell you what name me a hurricane past or present and i will post you a pic.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
499. 1900hurricane
6:13 PM CDT on September 21, 2006
Posted By: sandcrab39565 at 6:11 PM CDT on September 21, 2006.

Example: not cool looking out the second story window while your car headlights turn on and trunk pops open while underwater. Not cool to watch boats float by you halfway up that 2nd story. Not cool having friends call you from their cell phones while in thier attics trapped and pleading for help. Not cool seeing everything you use to know no longer exist.


Ya, that's not so cool.

: (
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
498. ryang
11:09 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
cybrteddy where will it develop on sunday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
497. ILoveHurricanes
11:12 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Its a traggic thing indeed sandcrab, but thats the chance you take when you live in an area like that. Of course, flash floods happen all over the us all the time.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
496. sandcrab39565
6:12 PM CDT on September 21, 2006
Cyberteddy, Were are you from?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
495. hurricane23
7:13 PM EDT on September 21, 2006
Ok one more IR image on wilma...



Katrina...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
494. WPBHurricane05
7:11 PM EDT on September 21, 2006
o yes that 'cool' front that moved over south florida is retreating to the north and will wash out over my house, so long 'cool' air!! high of 90 today, 91 without it!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
493. 1900hurricane
6:11 PM CDT on September 21, 2006
Posted By: tornadodude at 6:09 PM CDT on September 21, 2006.

here is a good radar image of the storm


Ahhh! It's going through an Eyewall Repalcaement Cycle!

Not!
: )
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
492. HurricaneMyles
11:08 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
cyclonebuster...The warm front is gone. It's occuluded with the cold front for the most part and whats left is moving west near the Ten/Kentucky border. The cold front 1900 was talking about is a new developing front from the system over the rockies. It's very impressive, expecially since it has a 90-100kt jetstream following behind it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
491. CybrTeddy
11:06 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Ok this is my senerio for the worst cane ever.
A Frontal Bontry comes off of the east cost.
It spins off a Low Perrsure System off of Florida. the system devolps into a cold core
stalled out tropical deppersion over 94F waters
The next day it would exploded and become a CAT-3. The rest of the frontal bondry pulls it
up (Barley) and she gets even stronger
cause its still over warm waters. It becomes a CAT-4 and then the system being pushed back to the west very rapidly would come up to NYC
as a CAT-3 or CAT-2 It would hit and be as bad as Katrina. I dont wish to see that happen this or next year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
490. sandcrab39565
6:08 PM CDT on September 21, 2006
Example: not cool looking out the second story window while your car headlights turn on and trunk pops open while underwater. Not cool to watch boats float by you halfway up that 2nd story. Not cool having friends call you from their cell phones while in thier attics trapped and pleading for help. Not cool seeing everything you use to know no longer exist.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
489. 1900hurricane
6:10 PM CDT on September 21, 2006
Wow, I didn't think the next storm system was so developed...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
488. 1900hurricane
6:07 PM CDT on September 21, 2006
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 6:06 PM CDT on September 21, 2006.
I think that cold front has turned into a warm front now that it is heading back North towards the new cold front entering the NW gulf.


Ya, that right! The strong cold front that moved through my area a few days ago IS now a warm front. I should know because it moved back through this morning. But, I am human. Thanks for reminding me!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
487. tornadodude
11:07 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
here is a good radar image of the storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
486. 1900hurricane
6:06 PM CDT on September 21, 2006
Posted By: sandcrab39565 at 6:04 PM CDT on September 21, 2006.

1900, it may be cool if it is not in your area. I can ashure you its not good out your own door


That's probably true...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
485. CybrTeddy
11:06 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Posted By: ryang at 11:05 PM GMT on September 21, 2006.

cybrteddy what will develop on sunday


Issac
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
482. 1900hurricane
6:02 PM CDT on September 21, 2006
Posted By: ryang at 6:02 PM CDT on September 21, 2006.

1990hurricane do you think the wave behind 96l will develop?


I'm not really sure at this point. To me, at this point, it looks pretty hostile, but conditions may change over time.

IR loop off Africa

Also, great first four letters of your handle!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
481. ryang
11:02 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
cybrteddy what will develop on sunday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
480. ILoveHurricanes
11:05 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Hurricane Mitch formed on October 22nd, 180 mph winds. Killed over 18,000 people :(


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1c/TRCmitch299H_G8.jpg/800px-TRCmitch299H_G8.jpg
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
479. tornadodude
11:04 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
hey everyone. check this out. one nice looking early fall storm system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
478. sandcrab39565
6:03 PM CDT on September 21, 2006
1900, it may be cool if it is not in your area. I can ashure you its not good out your own door
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
477. 1900hurricane
6:01 PM CDT on September 21, 2006
That would be really cool to get some really good footage from a major hurricane...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
476. ryang
10:58 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
1990hurricane do you think the wave behind 96l will develop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
475. CybrTeddy
11:00 PM GMT on September 21, 2006
Ok lets play the guessing game
When do u think TD-9 will form
i say sunday
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 525 - 475

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice