Tropical Depression Chris?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on August 03, 2006

Here's a quick update on still Tropical Storm Chris.

From the National Hurricane Center discussion:
"The combination of dry low- to mid-level air and shear...associated with an upper-level cyclone that dropped southward into Chris...has taken its toll on the tropical cyclone. Chris is devoid of deep convection within about 75 N mi radius of the center."

Again in the 2006 Hurricane Season, shear rules. The GFS model continues to forecast shear over the westerly path is which Chris is moving.

With that said, eyes will be glued to this cyclone. If shear relaxes a bit, the storm could intensify. With the current shear trend, the storm might completely dissipate.

Hopefully the rule of King Shear will continue, making the residents of Florida and the Islands breathe a bit easier.

Figure 1. The long range radar from San Juan, Puerto Rico showing the showers and thunderstorms of Chris.


-John Celenza in for Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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144. Melagoo
4:52 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Weather is so wonderfully unpredictable, I love that the most!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
143. benirica
4:50 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
This storm gave a fight from the start, making itself get noticed when the models were already not showing it. Sooner or later it had to go, and now was its time. If theres one thing to say about Chris is that its a survivor.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
142. bigdrvr
4:50 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Chris still has quite a low level circulation. This storm is not over yet, it is just on hold. Being that the surface reflection is so strong, once it gets over to a more favorable enviroment, I believe it will regain convection. I don't see it making it to hurricane status ever, but a TS again is not out of the cards.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
141. musicallydeclined
4:46 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
SJ- From what I understood was this storm was a relatively "short" storm at most of convection below 25,000 feet. The higher level of this storm has really taken the brunt of all the obsticales it has faced until this occurred and the "top" flew south. The mets are now counting this system out yet. Do you agree this is possible? Is there a recon flight planned? Thanks in advance.
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140. ridesthestorms
4:43 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Lets the saddle out and loosens the reins But I am still watching Chris. Thanks for all the good info!!!!
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139. StormJunkie
4:41 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
New blog is up
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138. RedMosquito
4:39 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Thanks SJ, that makes sense to me. I dont have much weathersense, but I can see what you are saying.
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137. 1900hurricane
4:36 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
I would like to thank everyone who has made a website to help amutures like me. they are all very good and helpfull.
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136. HurricaneRoman
4:36 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
rapid, i have been watching it .... i wonder if this will continue
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134. hurricane23
4:33 PM GMT on August 03, 2006

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133. NeptuneRising
4:32 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
the one in a million chance did not happen
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131. 1900hurricane
4:31 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
seems reasoable SJ
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130. NeptuneRising
4:30 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Wow, that was better than the Superbowl. However, sadly our team is going to lose eventually in this Climate Change lottery. The strong storms we have made more likely will appear, if not this year, then the next, or maybe the next.

That area just below Cuba would bad place for something to get started, it would have easy access to the gulf. And in some ways that is the weakness in the shear defense. If the system always finds away that looks like a hotspot.

I think we know that pretty much anything hot core making into the gulf is a high risk. Oil prices spiked by over a dollar when Chris was a TS trying to be a hurricane. They dropped by over a dollar today as Chris was torn apart.

It's fun to watch the energy you guys give to these storms. I concede that the fundamentals held this time, the one in million chance did happen. It's encouraging that we are understanding hurricanes better. It beats watching a windsock on the beach.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
129. rapidintensify
4:30 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Note the bit of a convection firing up closer to the center in the last couple oLinkf images.
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128. StormJunkie
4:30 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
1900, the dry air is associated with the building high that I speculate pushed the midlevel circulation to the S, which had all the convection. If I am wrong here, someone chime in.

Thanks
SJ
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
127. StormJunkie
4:28 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Red, I think that what happened is the high that came down pushed the mid level circulation in a southerly direction, but allowed the low level to continue tracking WNW. I think this could only happen because it was a weak system at the time. I think this could also lead to some of the discrepancies that we have seen in the model runs.

See ya'll later
SJ
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
126. 1900hurricane
4:27 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
I think the main reason for Chris's weakining is that it it is sucking up sooooo much dry air. Check it out on the WV Loop.
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125. StormJunkie
4:26 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Chris is still tracking just N of W.

Ok, lunch is over. See ya'll later
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124. HurricaneRoman
4:25 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
YEA 1900... it keeps building..
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123. 1900hurricane
4:24 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Here is a sattilite loop that shows Chris rapidly losing organization

Link
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122. RedMosquito
4:23 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Can anyone explain something to me?

All the talk about shear and the shear maps shows very little to be found (10-15 from what I can tell). Wouldn't it be fair to say this was not much of a contributing factor considering the rapid deintensification of the storm?

I want to be clear, I am only trying to learn not point out anything other than that.
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121. HurricaneRoman
4:21 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
I don't think Chris will disspipate... i think it will stay a TD
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120. southbeachdude
4:21 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
thks ike
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119. IKE
4:20 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
I think the cone continues until it's last breath is takin.
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118. 1900hurricane
4:19 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
I see it HurricaneRoman. Not very quickly, but still, there is a small amount of moisture trying to get close to the center. Chris doesn't want to die.
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117. IKE
4:19 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Yeah...I think it's over for Christopher, although the NAM model......uh...forget it.
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116. southbeachdude
4:19 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
hello all...will the NCH cone of error continue even if it is a tropical depression again?
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115. StormJunkie
4:18 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
007, on this page the last link in the models section has the long range.
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114. Jebekarue
4:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Thanks stormjunkie, not that I want it to form, but when I hear GOM and possible storm especially something coming over the peninsula of Florida its close to me, I just want to be ready for anything.
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112. ricanboy1984
4:15 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
though right now, this season reminds me of the 1997 season, when el nio was in place.
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111. HurricaneRoman
4:14 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
I think chris is trying to fight back
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110. StormJunkie
4:14 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
benirica, I think so, but have not checked the models lately. Also note it is the CMC (Canadian model)
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108. IKE
4:13 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Click on the Caribbean/West Atlantic water vapor loop. You can clearly see an upper level low diving southwest toward Chris. That and the one just east of south Florida are this storms death notice.

Nice try Chris...shouldn't you be getting ready for school anyway?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
107. StormJunkie
4:13 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
What is up 007? Good to see ya!

StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, storm video, and much more.
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106. ricanboy1984
4:12 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
hopefully it will...
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105. 1900hurricane
4:12 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
I will not write Chris off, but it will be almost insurmountable to restrenthen back to a strong TS. I will not write Chris off though.
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104. StormJunkie
4:12 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Those things take a lot of time to transition to warm core jeb. It is fairly unlikely, but not out of the question.
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103. HurricaneRoman
4:11 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
I don't lkno if u guys are seeing this...but mositure( very little amount) is slowly creeping towards the center
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100. benirica
4:09 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Are the GFS and CMS showing the same system even if the one on CMS is comming up in 24 hours and the GFS more or less by Sunday?
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99. Chicklit
4:09 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Does anyone know what direction that band of thunderstorms previously known as Chris is heading?
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98. CaneWatcher06
4:09 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
look like t-storm are pop back up the mb has drop 1 mb from 1012 to 1011mb its on the nay site i saw it so it may be makeing a come back
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97. Weatherwatcher007
4:08 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Does this site still have the long range gfs model for the US. I would appreciate it if someone gave me the link.
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96. ricanboy1984
4:08 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
yawns. what a boring season so far.
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95. Jebekarue
4:07 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
I guess my earlier question got missed so I will ask again...What are the chances of the ULL over Burmuda when it moves into the GOM forming when it hits the eddy's?
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94. swlaaggie
4:06 PM GMT on August 03, 2006
Couldn't have said it better myself Gams.

Good job!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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