Huge 99L Generating 55 mph Winds, But Remains Disorganized

By: Jeff Masters , 10:13 PM GMT on August 24, 2016

A huge and powerful tropical wave (Invest 99L) is generating winds of tropical storm force near the Virgin Islands, and could become a tropical storm at any time over the next two days as it heads west-northwest at 15 mph towards The Bahamas. If 99L develops a well-defined surface circulation, it will be called Tropical Storm Hermine. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was investigating 99L early Wednesday afternoon and found sustained surface winds of 50 - 55 mph just to the northeast of St. Croix in the Virgin Islands. The storm has brought widespread rainfall amounts of 1” to Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands as estimated by San Juan radar, with a one area of northwest Puerto Rico receiving over 3”. A flash flood watch continues for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands until midnight Wednesday.

Satellite loops late Wednesday afternoon showed a dramatic west-northwestward expansion of 99L’s heavy thunderstorm activity, and this sprawling tropical wave was spreading heavy rains across a 1000-mile wide stretch of ocean, from the southeast Bahama Islands to Barbados in the southern Lesser Antilles Islands. It will be difficult for such a massive storm to develop a well-defined surface circulation, and multiple swirls separated by hundreds of miles have been evident in the system during the day. By Wednesday afternoon, wind shear had increased by 10 knots in 24 hours over 99L’s northern flank, to a high 15 - 35 knots. This wind shear was prohibiting the storm from getting organized, as was dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were favorable for development: 29°C (84°F), about 1°C above average.


Figure 1. At 4:45 pm EDT Wednesday, 99L sprawled out over a area 1,000 miles across. Two swirls in the cloud pattern were evident, and 99L did not have a single well-defined circulation center. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 2. Tropical storm-force winds of 55 mph in 99L as seen from an altitude of 600 feet during Wednesday afternoon’s hurricane hunter flight. Image credit: ARWO 1st LT Carpenter, Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Thanks go to wunderground member Saltydogbwi1 for posting this image in the blog comments.

Forecast for 99L still uncertain
Since 99L has not yet formed a well-defined circulation center, it has been difficult for models to agree on its future track and intensity. This situation will likely continue until at least Thursday afternoon, when the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. This drop in shear will potentially allow 99L to organize into a tropical storm and give the models something more substantial to chew on.

A strong upper-level ridge now covering much of the Southeast U.S. and northern Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through the weekend, which should keep 99L on its general west-northwest track through at least Friday. Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical genesis, the ECMWF and UKMET, continued to show development of 99L into a tropical storm by Friday in their latest 12Z Wednesday runs. These models brought 99L across or near South Florida on Sunday and into the Gulf of Mexico, with a second landfall occurring on the Florida Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Our other reliable tropical cyclone genesis model, the GFS, continued to insist that 99L would not develop through Sunday. In their 2 pm EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 99L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 60% and 80%, respectively.

We’ll be back with a full analysis on Thursday morning. The Hurricane Hunters have flights scheduled every six hours into the storm. Wunderblogger Steve Gregory offers his take on 99L in his Wednesday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters




The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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1655. K8eCane
1:13 AM GMT on August 26, 2016
Quoting 1606. FrancesJeanne:



Yeah, somewhere in the 2005-2006 range sounds about right. He was around for a good while in one form or another. Man, things used to get ugly on a regular basis in those days lol. Glad so many of the other old-timers have stuck around sharing their wisdom all these years, though!


I was very worried about StormTop because he kept calling all the storms to go to New Orleans and finally one did, and then no one heard from ST for a while. I hear hes ok tho
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1654. K8eCane
1:07 AM GMT on August 26, 2016
Is Liz Here??
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1653. Dakster
11:49 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1637. Grothar:

Let me know when you want the Doc to come on?


Hey Gro!!! How's Florida life treating you? I see you are still forecasting the blobs and storms.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1652. LBAR
11:19 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
GFS was right yet again with this particular non-forming entity, and I hope it stays non-forming (although we could use the rain here in South Carolina). I was certain Hermine was going to form 3 days ago, but not so much anymore. Wasn't the EURO the one that was hyping all the hurricanes last year?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1650. IDTH
5:42 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1649. IDTH
5:37 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
HWRF out to 102 hours out

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1648. IDTH
5:32 PM GMT on August 25, 2016



99L is racing to get away from the shear, the ultimate question being, how long can this persist?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1647. GatorWX
5:13 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Dry, sinking air mass. Most else a go. That is all.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1646. GatorWX
5:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Bla, bla, bla.... Not really worth making any assessment or analysis on 99. Starting to think the streak will continue. 10 yrs and counting, but there's time.

Here's Gaston.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1645. IDTH
5:11 PM GMT on August 25, 2016

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1644. IDTH
5:04 PM GMT on August 25, 2016



Yet another reason why the further west track to me seems more likely.

By the way, I leave for about 2 hours and the blog is already saying 99L isn't going to amount to anything (or at least that's the perception I'm getting). I don't know if you all knew this or not, but 99L was supposed to struggle up until it reached the Bahamas. There is still a great amount of Vorticity associated with this center and that is why no one on this blog can let their guard down.



Please don't make a mistake and not be ready, 99L wasn't supposed to do anything today when it had 20 to 30 knots of shear over it. The fact the center is still surviving is what worries me. It's normally the one's that end up surviving the harsh conditions only to end up in a very favorable environment that end up becoming significant.



I will preach this again and again, DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN, no matter how weak it may look now, things could very well change.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1643. nola70119
4:53 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
99L has struggled during the day, blossomed at night........looks like the trend is continuing.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1642. nola70119
4:50 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1630. thetwilightzone:

if the NHC where too drop the odds i think it would be a good idea too drop the odds too 30/70 for the next 48hrs i realy dont see march of any thing happening for the next 24hrs or so


Too close to Florida to let anyone's guard done.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1641. thetwilightzone
4:48 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1640. wunderkidcayman:



however this could be just a regular low level mission




yep they went home there nothing on the recon pages right now


Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1640. wunderkidcayman
4:47 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1639. wunderkidcayman:



you sure because now it looks even more like a LL Synoptic surveillance mission




however this could be just a regular low level mission

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1639. wunderkidcayman
4:43 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1632. thetwilightzone:


looks like there heading home


you sure because now it looks even more like a LL Synoptic surveillance mission

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1638. wunderkidcayman
4:41 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 25 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-091

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 26/1400Z
B. AFXXX 05EEA INVEST
C. 26/1145Z
D. 23.0N 75.0W
E. 26/1330Z TO 26/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 74
A. 26/2330Z, 27/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0608A CYCLONE
C. 26/2000Z
D. 23.6N 75.8W
E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75
A. 27/1130Z, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 0708A CYCLONE
C. 27/0815Z
D. 24.0N 71.0W
E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR 28/0000Z.

3. REMARKS:
A. MISSION FOR 25/2330Z AND 26/0530Z CANCELED.
B. MISSION FOR 26/1130Z AND 26/1730Z CHANGED TO FLIGHT
ONE ABOVE.
C. NOAA'S P-3 (NOAA 43)WILL CONTINUE RESEARCH MISSIONS
INTO THIS SYSTEM EVERY 12 HOURS WITH TAKEOFFS AT 0600Z
AND 1800Z.
D. GLOBAL HAWK RESEARCH MISSION AROUND HURRICANE GASTON
DEPARTING 26/2200Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. 80 DROPS.


there you go a little less cluttered

Quoting 1635. thetwilightzone:

NOUS42 KNHC 251546
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 25 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-091

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 74
A. 26/1400Z A. 26/2330Z, 27/0530Z
B. AFXXX 05EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0608A CYCLONE
C. 26/1145Z C. 26/2000Z
D. 23.0N 75.0W D. 23.6N 75.8W
E. 26/1330Z TO 26/1730Z E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75
A. 27/1130Z, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 0708A CYCLONE
C. 27/0815Z
D. 24.0N 71.0W
E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR 28/0000Z.

3. REMARKS:
A. MISSION FOR 25/2330Z AND 26/0530Z CANCELED.
B. MISSION FOR 26/1130Z AND 26/1730Z CHANGED TO FLIGHT
ONE ABOVE.
C. NOAA'S P-3 (NOAA 43)WILL CONTINUE RESEARCH MISSIONS
INTO THIS SYSTEM EVERY 12 HOURS WITH TAKEOFFS AT 0600Z
AND 1800Z.
D. GLOBAL HAWK RESEARCH MISSION AROUND HURRICANE GASTON
DEPARTING 26/2200Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. 80 DROPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1637. Grothar
4:37 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Let me know when you want the Doc to come on?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1636. DavidHOUTX
4:32 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
That ULL heading down the Carolina coastline may just put a fork in 99L
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1635. thetwilightzone
4:31 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
NOUS42 KNHC 251546
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 25 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-091

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 74
A. 26/1400Z A. 26/2330Z, 27/0530Z
B. AFXXX 05EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0608A CYCLONE
C. 26/1145Z C. 26/2000Z
D. 23.0N 75.0W D. 23.6N 75.8W
E. 26/1330Z TO 26/1730Z E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75
A. 27/1130Z, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 0708A CYCLONE
C. 27/0815Z
D. 24.0N 71.0W
E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR 28/0000Z.

3. REMARKS:
A. MISSION FOR 25/2330Z AND 26/0530Z CANCELED.
B. MISSION FOR 26/1130Z AND 26/1730Z CHANGED TO FLIGHT
ONE ABOVE.
C. NOAA'S P-3 (NOAA 43)WILL CONTINUE RESEARCH MISSIONS
INTO THIS SYSTEM EVERY 12 HOURS WITH TAKEOFFS AT 0600Z
AND 1800Z.
D. GLOBAL HAWK RESEARCH MISSION AROUND HURRICANE GASTON
DEPARTING 26/2200Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. 80 DROPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1634. DavidHOUTX
4:30 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Canadian Model takes this right into the TX/LA border in 5 days.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1633. thetwilightzone
4:29 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
yep looks like recon is done and heading home
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1632. thetwilightzone
4:26 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1631. wunderkidcayman:

yeah this looks more like a low level synoptic mission or the flight back home to Keesler AFB



looks like there heading home
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1631. wunderkidcayman
4:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
yeah this looks more like a low level synoptic mission or the flight back home to Keesler AFB

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1630. thetwilightzone
4:22 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
if the NHC where too drop the odds i think it would be a good idea too drop the odds too 30/70 for the next 48hrs i realy dont see march of any thing happening for the next 24hrs or so
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1629. wunderkidcayman
4:20 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1624. Sfloridacat5:



I see a clear WNW movement when I watch the visible satellite. Really need to look at the overall movement of the system and not just a few images.
Time will tell if the system does change direction (in the long term) or if its just a quick wobble.


that's why I said more frames needed to make it so

the bigger point I was trying to make spin not looks as good as before
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1628. Stormwatch247
4:20 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Although 99L is very disorganized, it should be watched closely - especially if you live anywhere in Florida and the Gulf Coast. It is a large system, and moving WNW.

If 99L survives the wind shear and mountains of Hispaniola - as the latest model runs suggest, it has a chance to strengthen, and move into the Gulf. It is late August, and the Gulf waters are very warm.


Now is the time to get a hurricane plan.




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1627. wunderkidcayman
4:17 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1622. Sfloridacat5:

12Z GFS takes 99L right down the spine of Cuba. So that's really what we need to watch for. If 99L does take a path over Cuba then I would have to go with the GFS and trash the Euro.

But if 99L stays north of Cuba, I will toss the GSF run in the garbage.


not really
GFS has it riding along the N coast of Cuba pretty much paralleling it then into the GOM

but its just drop this scenario on the table for theoretical idea here

it crosses cuba into the NW Caribbean paralleling the S Coast of Cuba
it will be in less shear higher SSTs the highest TCHP in the whole basin

it could get pretty nasty pretty quickly if it were to do that

this is just a thought not saying it will happen but just saying if it were to happen then yikes
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1626. washingaway
4:12 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1609. nash36:

So far, the 12z GFS drags the low over the entirety of Cuba. It actually dropped it for several hours, before hour 54. Ya know, sometimes I think the GFS is standing in a big puddle of crap and it doesn't have the shoes for it.

Blasphemy
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1625. weathermanwannabe
4:10 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
We fret on here with all these issues (to form or not to form), which is fine for us weather geeks, but at the end of the day, most of the general public is waiting on the official NHC 3 and 5 day cones, after a storm actually forms, before taking action no matter how long or short it takes for one to spin up.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1624. Sfloridacat5
4:08 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1623. wunderkidcayman:

looking on this hi-res Rapid Scan vis of 99L looks like Spin has become a little more disorganized and changed direction from WNW 294 now moving W 270 in the last 3 or so frames unconfirmed need more frames to confirm

Link


I see a clear WNW movement when I watch the visible satellite. Really need to look at the overall movement of the system and not just a few images.
Time will tell if the system does change direction (in the long term) or if its just a quick wobble.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1623. wunderkidcayman
4:06 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
looking on this hi-res Rapid Scan vis of 99L looks like Spin has become a little more disorganized and changed direction from WNW 294 now moving W 270 in the last 3 or so frames unconfirmed need more frames to confirm

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1622. Sfloridacat5
4:03 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
12Z GFS takes 99L right down the spine of Cuba. So that's really what we need to watch for. If 99L does take a path over Cuba then I would have to go with the GFS and trash the Euro.

But if 99L stays north of Cuba, I will toss the GSF run in the garbage.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1621. wunderkidcayman
3:57 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1613. wpb:

303 recon is beginning there recon at 1000 ft finding some strong wins.
anyone know what happened to noaa gulfstream jet it has not flown in
months.


303 is finding strong winds
like what I'm not seeing strong wind on RECON data


hmm I don't know maybe gulfstream is under major repairs I guess

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1620. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT
3:57 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1595. ajcamsmom2:

1567. tiggeriffic
10:27 AM

I think you are right. I guess I will go ahead and book 3 rooms while I am at it just in case. We have several displaced family members from all the recent flooding. Everything that can be salvaged has to come out. Sheetrock and flooring, gone. Appliances gone. We are being told that it will be at least a year before they can return home. What a mess!

I am not sure if you know but there is a quoting button next to the ignoring button.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1619. thetwilightzone
3:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
if 99L dos not do march of any thing today i think 99L could vary well this DISSIPATED 99L shoud have been a named storm or TD by now

well have too see what 99L in the next 24hrs or so but if it dos not start doing some in soon 99L could this vary well DISSIPATED
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1618. wunderkidcayman
3:53 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1596. thetwilightzone:



that was noaa that was heading home not the recon the recon is still in there


NOAA is already home

its AF308 that's heading home now 308 is the one that was just in 99L

Quoting 1604. Patrap:

AFR HH tail #303 en route to 99L




are you sure
it might be

Quoting 1609. nash36:

So far, the 12z GFS drags the low over the entirety of Cuba. It actually dropped it for several hours, before hour 54. Ya know, sometimes I think the GFS is standing in a big puddle of crap and it doesn't have the shoes for it.


GFS might be on to something
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1617. SELAliveforthetropic
3:51 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1510. Patrap:




Looks like some dry in front as well.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1616. Sfloridacat5
3:50 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1577. Mikla:


Don't think so. Shear has expanded a little west. Go here, click the invest icon, check shear.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#



Yes, it looks like the shear is expanding to the west, but I think 99L will out run it. The shear is also moving west in the GOM creating a very favorable environment in the eastern GOM.
So I believe conditions will just improve for the system down the road.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1615. n3qtrtme
3:50 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1478. DoubleBranchGuy:

Since "lurkers" are getting love on here this morning...I've been lurking for so long I can't remember the actual start date. 2004? The reason people like me mostly lurk is because of the valuable resource this blog is to those of us that live among these storms. For me, I don't feel I should post non-educated opinion clogging up all the great info this blog provides. So...I shut up and learn. I'm a vet of Hugo and a great many smaller storms. I live in a major flood zone north of Tampa. Thank you to all of you regulars. I watch your posts very carefully. A favorite is - Nash. i like your no nonsense all science approach.


Been lurking since the beginning too. Back then we lived NW of Houston and endured the freak season of Katrina and Rita. We sold the ranch to buy a boat then spent this spring cruising the Bahamas. Many days were spent in Long Island helping recovery efforts from Joaquin. Now, we are on a mooring ball in Boot Key Harbor and I'm watching this "naked swirl" like a hawk. Thanks to Bahamas provisioning I have tons of canned goods. Still, hoping they are not needed. Thanks for everyone's observations and feedback. This is the most updated info I find that I can clearly understand without a degree in meteorology.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1614. wpb
3:48 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1608. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Gaston, located about 1200 miles east of the
Leeward Island.

1. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
centered just southeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The wave
is producing gale-force winds over water to the north of
Hispaniola, however, satellite images indicate that the shower and
thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of lowest
pressure. Surface data also indicate that the low continues to
lack a well-defined center. Although upper-level winds are only
marginally conducive for development during the next day or so,
they are expected to become a little more favorable by the weekend,
and this system could become a tropical depression during the next
couple of days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the wave later this morning.

Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over Puerto Rico
today, and strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely over portions
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and
central Bahamas during the next couple of days. These rains could
lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please consult products issued
by your local meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from
the National Weather Service for further details.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since it is increasing likely that
some impacts, at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur
beginning this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Brown/Brennan

little old
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1613. wpb
3:48 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
303 recon is beginning there recon at 1000 ft finding some strong wins.
anyone know what happened to noaa gulfstream jet it has not flown in
months.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1612. wunderkidcayman
3:47 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1589. reedzone:



2nd mission underway!


I'm not sure if this is a low level mission into 99L or a Synoptic Surveillance mission

I'm thinking it might be the latter

if it was the first one we would see

AF303 Mission # 04 into INVEST
TYPE: Low Level Reconnaissance

but instead we see

AF303 Mission #4 into SURV
Type: Unknown

which is still odd and makes me wonder because it still don't make sense
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1611. thetwilightzone
3:47 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1608. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Gaston, located about 1200 miles east of the
Leeward Island.

1. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
centered just southeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The wave
is producing gale-force winds over water to the north of
Hispaniola, however, satellite images indicate that the shower and
thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of lowest
pressure. Surface data also indicate that the low continues to
lack a well-defined center. Although upper-level winds are only
marginally conducive for development during the next day or so,
they are expected to become a little more favorable by the weekend,
and this system could become a tropical depression during the next
couple of days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the wave later this morning.

Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over Puerto Rico
today, and strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely over portions
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and
central Bahamas during the next couple of days. These rains could
lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please consult products issued
by your local meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from
the National Weather Service for further details.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since it is increasing likely that
some impacts, at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur
beginning this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Brown/Brennan




old stuff we all ready no thanks
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1610. Icantthinkofausernam
3:46 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1561. Joe21:

I live in south central FL and According to most people on this page, it looks like this won't develop and threatened FL. I'm only going based off of what people are posting on here. Looks like FL has a shield around this state I guess. I know I'm not going to pay attention to this or any other storm in the future. I'm not preparing for any more storm threats because they seem to never hit us after all. I know that's harsh but I'm so tired of being told to prepare and get hyped then nothing happens. I'm starting to a hurricane won't hit us again.
I only go by what people post and everyone is saying that the storm won't form and threatened FL as a tropical storm or weak hurricane


That's the spirit!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1609. nash36
3:45 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
So far, the 12z GFS drags the low over the entirety of Cuba. It actually dropped it for several hours, before hour 54. Ya know, sometimes I think the GFS is standing in a big puddle of crap and it doesn't have the shoes for it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1608. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT
3:45 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Gaston, located about 1200 miles east of the
Leeward Island.

1. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
centered just southeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The wave
is producing gale-force winds over water to the north of
Hispaniola, however, satellite images indicate that the shower and
thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of lowest
pressure. Surface data also indicate that the low continues to
lack a well-defined center. Although upper-level winds are only
marginally conducive for development during the next day or so,
they are expected to become a little more favorable by the weekend,
and this system could become a tropical depression during the next
couple of days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the wave later this morning.

Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over Puerto Rico
today, and strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely over portions
of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and
central Bahamas during the next couple of days. These rains could
lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please consult products issued
by your local meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from
the National Weather Service for further details.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since it is increasing likely that
some impacts, at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur
beginning this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Brown/Brennan
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1607. tiggeriffic
3:42 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1595. ajcamsmom2:

1567. tiggeriffic
10:27 AM

I think you are right. I guess I will go ahead and book 3 rooms while I am at it just in case. We have several displaced family members from all the recent flooding. Everything that can be salvaged has to come out. Sheetrock and flooring, gone. Appliances gone. We are being told that it will be at least a year before they can return home. What a mess!


if you ever are able to fit in in your budget...we have a hi-lo camper...like a pop up with hard sides...but even a pop up is better than nothing...low to the ground for pulling, etc...if you have to evac...you load it up, close it down and go...when you get back...if your house is destroyed, at least you have a place to lay your head and your important stuff is safe and dry with you...we have a few tents in our camper as well...JIC... sorry for all that you lost... and be sure to grab a few boxes of big garbage bags as well.... cant hurt
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1606. FrancesJeanne
3:42 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1594. OviedoWatcher:



Stormtop! Now that's a name I haven't heard for a while! That was what, 2005 or so?


Yeah, somewhere in the 2005-2006 range sounds about right. He was around for a good while in one form or another. Man, things used to get ugly on a regular basis in those days lol. Glad so many of the other old-timers have stuck around sharing their wisdom all these years, though!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1605. AtlanticP
3:41 PM GMT on August 25, 2016
Quoting 1561. Joe21:

I live in south central FL and According to most people on this page, it looks like this won't develop and threatened FL. I'm only going based off of what people are posting on here. Looks like FL has a shield around this state I guess. I know I'm not going to pay attention to this or any other storm in the future. I'm not preparing for any more storm threats because they seem to never hit us after all. I know that's harsh but I'm so tired of being told to prepare and get hyped then nothing happens. I'm starting to a hurricane won't hit us again.
I only go by what people post and everyone is saying that the storm won't form and threatened FL as a tropical storm or weak hurricane


LOL! Epic post.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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