The U.S. Summer is Off to a Record-Hot Start

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters , 4:58 PM GMT on July 12, 2016

Last month was the warmest June in 122 years of U.S. recordkeeping, beating out June 1933, according to the monthly climate roundup released on Wednesday by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Each of the 48 contiguous states came in above its average temperature for June, with Arizona and Utah setting all-time June records for heat. Thirteen other states had a top-ten-warmest June, stretching across the nation from California to Florida.


Figure 1. Statewide rankings for average temperature during June 2016, as compared to each June since 1895. Darker shades of orange indicate higher rankings for warmth, with 1 denoting the coldest month on record and 122 the warmest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 2. Statewide rankings for average precipitation during June 2016, as compared to each June since 1895. Darker shades of green indicate higher rankings for moisture, with 1 denoting the driest month on record and 122 the wettest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

The nation’s biggest weather calamity of June was the catastrophic flash flood in West Virginia that took at least 23 lives and destroyed more than 1500 homes. In contrast, the month as a whole was marked by unusual dryness across most of the country: it was the 14th driest of the 122 Junes on record. Only one state (Wyoming) had a top-ten-driest June, but the general lack of moisture was most evident across the northern Great Basin, the northern and central Great Plains, and the states from New Jersey and Pennsylvania northeastward. Grand Island, Nebraska, saw just 0.05” of rain, smashing its dry-June record of 0.43” from 1922.

Could this end up as the hottest summer in U.S. history?
In line with a global climate that’s being warmed by greenhouse gases, the contiguous United States has seen six of its ten warmest summers on record in just the last 15 years. On that basis alone, 2016 has a reasonable shot at becoming our hottest summer yet, especially with the head start provided by a record-warm June. On the other hand, there is plenty of inherent variability from week to week and month to month, even in weather that’s averaged across the country.


Figure 3. Top ten hottest summers (June-August) for contiguous U.S., with the rankings of each month and the summer as a whole for the period 1895-2015 (1 = hottest). Data courtesy NOAA/NCEI.

At right, Figure 3 shows how each month played out during our ten warmest summers on record. Each of those blazing summers had at least one month that fell below the top-ten list for that respective month, showing how difficult it is to maintain the kind of unusual warmth we saw in June for an entire summer.


Figure 4. Departures from average temperature (anomalies) across the contiguous U.S. for the period July 1-10, 2016. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

As shown in Figure 4 (right), the first third of July was relatively cool across the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, and New England, with above-average heat continuing across the South and much of the West. This week should continue on the mild side across the northern U.S. as an unusually potent upper-level low for midsummer progresses eastward. This low has already generated a wild variety of weather over the last several days, including a round of torrential rains, flash floods, and tornadoes on Monday centered in Minnesota and Wisconsin. A phenomenal 24-hour rainfall total of 10” reported on Tuesday morning at Wascott, WI, isn’t too far from the state’s 24-hour record of 11.72”, set in 1946. The storms were fueled by extremely high amounts of atmospheric moisture: the dew point at Sioux Falls, SD, hit 82°F on Monday, apparently setting a new all-time record high dew point for the city (h/t to Minnesota meteorologist Paul Douglas for this statistic). On its way to the Midwest, the upper low delivered a blitz of accumulating snowfall and freezing temperatures to the northern Rockies, including parts of Yellowstone National Park and the Grand Tetons above 7000 feet.

As for next week, the ECMWF and GFS models have been remarkably consistent on developing a very strong upper-level high sprawling across much of the nation during the latter half of July. It’s too soon to know exactly how fierce the heat will be, or where its epicenter will be located, but the models suggest that temperatures may challenge the 100°F mark as far north as the Dakotas by later next week, with 90s enveloping most of the nation east of the Rockies for what could be an extended period. The 8-14 day outlook from the NWS Weather Prediction Center shows high odds for above-average temperatures over the entire contiguous U.S. except for the Pacific Northwest, with odds favoring below-average precipitation for most of the Plains and mid-South. If the heat manifests as expected, it may be enough to counterbalance the northern mildness so far in July and keep 2016 in the running for warmest U.S. summer on record, particularly if August stays on the hot side.


Figure 5. An ominous cloud associated with fast-moving thunderstorms sweeps across Aberdeen, South Dakota, on Monday, July 11, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer stuswan.


Figure 6. Enhanced infrared image of Hurricane Celia (left) and the smaller Tropical Storm Darby (right) as of 1530Z (11:30 AM EDT) Tuesday, July 12, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Celia weakens; Darby develops
The procession of tropical cyclones across the eastern North Pacific that began with the formation of Tropical Storm Agatha on July 2, followed by Hurricane Blas (named on July 3) and Hurricane Celia (named on July 8), continued on Tuesday morning with the formation of Tropical Storm Darby. As of 11 AM EDT Tuesday, Darby was located about 500 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west at 10 mph with top sustained winds of 40 mph. Although it will be heading west atop very warm sea-surface temperatures, Darby may also encounter cold water churned up in the wake of Hurricanes Blas and Celia. The National Hurricane Center outlook brings Darby to Category 1 strength by Friday, then weakens it by the weekend.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Celia is now a Category 1 storm, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of southern Baja California as of 11 AM EDT Tuesday, with top sustained winds of 90 mph. Celia topped out as a Category 2 hurricane with peak winds of 100 mph on Monday night. Now angling toward the northwest at 12 mph, Celia is expected to gradually bend back westward while slowly weakening over cooler waters during the next couple of days. Based on long-range runs of the GFS and ECMWF models, there is still a chance that a weakened Celia or its remnants could pass just north of the Hawaiian Islands early next week, bringing some high surf and a chance of squalls, but it is too soon to assign any confidence to this possibility.

Both the European and GFS models show an area of disturbed weather will develop several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico by the end of this week, and this disturbance has the potential to intensify into a tropical storm over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this future disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 60%, respectively. Both Darby and the next potential storm (which would be named Estelle) are expected to follow paths similar to Agatha, Blas, and Celia--generally west to west-northwest, away from Mexico. If the Eastern Pacific manages to spit out a Tropical Storm Frank before the end of the month--which is quite possible, given the long-range forecasts of the continued presence of the MJO over the Eastern Pacific into the end of July--this would give us six named storms for the month, which would approach the July record (from 1985) of seven named storms forming in the Eastern Pacific, according to NHC hurricane scientist Eric Blake.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 515 - 465

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11Blog Index

515. ariot
9:20 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 490. NativeSun:

Sorry, but the climate changes all the time,



This is the absolute worst pretext to talk about human climate forcing and population.

The climate does not change all the time, unless you view it on a deep time scale.

The climate moves slow enough to guide evolution, unless forced by something like an off world impact or volcanic activity for thousands of years that are the size of Siberia (literally).

I'm glad people like you post missives like that "climate always changes" becuase it shows you are not interested in the scientific method.

Try this one on for size: "Trees grow all the time, a 100 year old oak popped up in my driveway while I was eating dinner."

Or this one: : "I enjoy watching rock weathering while I sip coffee in the morning. It happens all the time. Just today a 400 ton boulder turned to dust as I enjoyed a spot of Sumatra."
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
514. CaneFreeCR
8:53 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 400. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

city was even having power issues today some areas were browning out blacking out high demand for electric for all the ac's I figure
that worries me what happens if the grid crashes in this heat and all lose ac place will go nuts I will go nuts heat makes me crazy
I don't like the extreme heat either -- it's why I live near the equator (but at an elevation of 4000 feet), where the daytime temps and the nighttime temps are ideal for me: comfy shirt-sleeve days and I sleep under a blanket and a quilt most nights. But it does rain sometimes -- it's thundering right now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
513. vis0
8:18 PM GMT on July 14, 2016

Quoting 397. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

wait till they see 108 later this month into august
[stated with respect to KEEPEROFTHEGATE]

uh yer making the assumption that people today give a hoot. Today  If it reaches 108F...in seconds people will blast On their AC to the area on the AC dial that reads per industrial rev. Arctic temperature.  If their is a brown.or black out they'll not think, just complain.
(i've never had an AC, mom wanted one and at age 80ish i got her a 8k BTU...Dad hates ACs.)

Now 45 + years ago people still had a moral conscience (NOT RELIGIOUS just not lying to themselves as what is right or wrong in a golden rule sort of way.  if you do something to another person if that other person where you would you be upset if "it" was done to you?, If you would be upsweat**** i mean upset then case closed you would not disrespect others, PERIOD.

If it reaches 108F (specially after a previous hot day) in NYc, odds are you'll see a major brown out if lucky, blackout if not lucky as those at control central where too busy playing pokemon go...no i mean GO! get out of here! compu'r generated thing that seems to get more luv/respect than real people.


[stated with respect to KEEPEROFTHEGATE...cause i know  KEEPEROFTHEGATE understands times have changed...hopefully the pendulum will swing** towards a more complete manner of thinking]


**
with the constant sharing of knowledge and that sharing done with respect to all even skeptic$.(try to not get upset when sharing knowledge even if 99 of 100 do not listen, otherwise the focus will shift to ones emotions instead of learning and you'll loose the attention of that 1 person.

**** "upsweat"
though i meant upset watch in 40 years upsweat will have a meaning.  As in its so hot the sweat is running UP my body, thus i'm upsweating.

Why are humans emotions in the past 40-50 yrs on their sleeves (A.D.D. like) read my zilly blog to find out, i might be banned but i'm just trying to alert society of the worst crime in the past 50 yrs. Weather related? once this artificially introduced ADD "problem" is solved humans will begin to pay attention to their conscience and care thus have a higher chance of taking care of their true home sweet home, as you have to get people to FIRST care before they take care of anything.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
512. Sfloridacat5
6:10 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Beach cam on Marco Island looking at the storms out in the GOM just off shore S.W. Florida.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
511. OKsky
5:14 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 510. gunhilda:


Mass migrations of humanity from flooding coastal areas will create huge problems for the future. Just look at the current refugee crisis caused by war in Syria. The evacuation of New Orleans after Katrina had a ripple effect for many states, many cities. Think of the potential effects resulting from the mass exodus of countries like Bangladesh and the low-lying areas of Asia. Do you really think India will welcome 100 million refugees? Do you think they can support 100 million refugees? Do you really think it's all going to be hunky-dory when the population of Miami goes looking for someplace else to live? Then multiply those problems by every coastal city and town around the world that can't find or afford an engineering fix to preserve their location.

Rising waters will cause movement of the masses. That in turn will cause strife. If you don't think such dramatic changes will cause serious problems on a global scale, you have a terrible grasp of history. We will have plenty to worry about when millions and millions of people globally no longer have a place to live.


Not to take away anything from your main point which I 100% agree with (or from the tragedy of Katrina), but I think the influx of people from New Orleans is one of the best things I have seen happen to my city for several reasons. (Im in OKC)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
510. gunhilda
4:59 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 434. MahFL:



Remember though the Earth has been a lot warmer than it is now, subtropical forests used to grow in the Arctic.
Now if we had global cooling and a 3 mile high glacier was on top of your house you'd have a lot more to worry about.

Mass migrations of humanity from flooding coastal areas will create huge problems for the future. Just look at the current refugee crisis caused by war in Syria. The evacuation of New Orleans after Katrina had a ripple effect for many states, many cities. Think of the potential effects resulting from the mass exodus of countries like Bangladesh and the low-lying areas of Asia. Do you really think India will welcome 100 million refugees? Do you think they can support 100 million refugees? Do you really think it's all going to be hunky-dory when the population of Miami goes looking for someplace else to live? Then multiply those problems by every coastal city and town around the world that can't find or afford an engineering fix to preserve their location.

Rising waters will cause movement of the masses. That in turn will cause strife. If you don't think such dramatic changes will cause serious problems on a global scale, you have a terrible grasp of history. We will have plenty to worry about when millions and millions of people globally no longer have a place to live.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
509. Naga5000
4:52 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 490. NativeSun:

Sorry, but the climate changes all the time, and humans are a part of the problem. 7 Billion people on a planet is not good for anything, so yes we humans to help with the problems, but how much is only a guess. What I want to know is how much the sun affects the ocean temps, lets say over a few thousand years, and how long does it take to release this heat from the oceans, after all it's the oceans that control the atmosphere, and world wide temps.


You continue to display a base lack of understanding of how the system works. For the oceans, "a paper published in Nature Geoscience by Andrew Schurer, Simon Tett, and Gabriele Hegerl investigates the sun's influence on global climate changes over the past 1,000 years. Although we know the sun can't be causing the current global warming because solar activity has declined slightly over the past 50 years, "it's the sun" nevertheless remains one of the most popular climate contrarian arguments. However, in recent years, research has pointed in the direction of a relatively small solar impact on the Earth's climate changes.

It's important to realize that while the Earth is bombarded by a lot of heat from the sun, the amount of solar energy reaching the planet is relatively stable. According to the best recent estimates, it's only increased by about 0.1 percent over the past 300 years, causing a radiative forcing less than 10 percent as large as the human-caused forcing over that period."

and

"Over the last 3 decades the sun has seen a very slight decrease in the amount of solar radiation it puts out. In spite of this, there has been a tremendous build-up of heat in the ocean (see Figure 2), especially the deep ocean (Levitus [2012], Nuccitelli [2012], Balmaseda [2013]). Given that the heating of the oceans is almost entirely due to sunlight (in the form of shortwave radiation) entering the surface layers, this raises the question of how this ocean warming is possible. Why are the oceans warming so much when the main source of heat input into the upper ocean has diminished slightly?

As discussed in this SkS post, and the Real Climate post by Professor Peter Minnett it is based upon, the oceans are warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect. The oceans are heated from sunlight entering the surface, and because they are typically warmer than the overlying air, the net flow of heat is from the warmer surface ocean to the cooler atmosphere above. Turbulence is suppressed at the ocean-atmosphere boundary, so heat has to travel through a conductive layer within the cool-skin - the thin surface layer of ocean in contact with the atmosphere. The rate of heat flow is, therefore, determined by the thermal gradient through the cool-skin layer (Saunders [1967], Grassl [1976].

As additional greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere, they trap more heat (longwave radiation) and reflect more of it back toward the ocean surface. Strong absorption of longwave radiation occurs in the cool-skin, but is compensated by the powerful emission (loss) of longwave radiation to the atmosphere at the ocean surface (e.g. Konda [2004]) This blocks heat from reaching the ocean below the cool-skin, but it does warm the upper portion of the cool-skin layer and the thermal gradient through the layer is therefore reduced. In doing so, this lowered thermal gradient slows the flow of heat out of the ocean and causes the oceans to grow ever warmer over time. So, in a similar manner to that where greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere by reducing heat lost to space, they carry out a similar function in warming the surface oceans by reducing heat lost to the atmosphere."

In other words, it still aint the sun.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
508. bigwes6844
4:45 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
507. Naga5000
4:45 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 479. MahFL:



I was not talking about any time period, I do actually believe in global warming, but I think the so called problems it brings are often over exaggerated. Indeed the experts cannot even agree on how much sea level rise would occur.



Where is this disagreement? Different methods do produce different results, but they add to a dynamic understanding of sea level rise with a range. BY definition, the longer the projection, the larger the range of probability. If we had measurements from the future, I'm sure we would use them. Currently, SLR is at the top end of IPCC projections.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
506. justmehouston
4:44 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 497. ChiThom:



The Germans are working it without us... and the Dutch, and the Danes, not to mention the Chinese... even the Arabs who are sitting atop all the oil are investing in solar energy! You said "We all have to work together..." so what's wrong with us in this picture? What's wrong with U.S.?


Whats wrong with the US?
We just want to throw a lot of imaginary money around and talk like we are doing something
No game plan, and with the way that we structure our legislation I dont see anything credible happening in the near future
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
505. Astrometeor
4:42 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Thunderstorms inbound for Nashville. Have to go bring the camera inside. Mom's Scarlet Hibiscus of the Rose Mallow started blooming. One flower came out yesterday. Really pretty.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
504. Astrometeor
4:41 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 486. Loduck:

Has anybody checked to see if the earth has gotten closer to the sun or vice-versa? I dunno how much more stress my garden can take. NO rain since Colin and not much even with that and it is hell hot here in NE Fl


Closest approach to the sun occurs in the Northern Hemisphere's winter. That's a 3.1 million mile difference between winter and summer for the USA. January 2 was closest approach, and July 4 was the farthest from the Sun that the Earth gets.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
503. 3SeaHorses
4:39 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 500. Patrap:

Breaking,Trump picks Indiana Gov. Mike Pence for V P.


within that statement holds many of them :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
502. WunderAlertBot
4:38 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
501. 69Viking
4:37 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 482. MahFL:
Hmmm, MJO in the western Atlantic by tomorrow ?



So MJO is represented by the orange and red colors?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
500. Patrap
4:33 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Breaking,Trump picks Indiana Gov. Mike Pence for V P.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
499. weathermanwannabe
4:32 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
The best layman's explanation that I got, from a co-worker a few years ago, that made me really tune into the global warming issue was the following and quite easy for the layman to understand. His comment was along the lines of the following. The Earth "naturally' recycled carbon over millions of years, under the earth, in coal and oil deposits buried deep underground over geologic time. Then modern man comes along and in the period of the last 150 years or so, unearths the coal and oil, burns it (for the sake of industrialization), and quickly releases millions of years of buried carbon deposits into the atmosphere in a rapid compressed timeframe; something has got to give........That makes perfect sense to me.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
498. 69Viking
4:31 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 466. ClimateChange:


Yeah, was looking at Twitter. Sounds like you guys are having a rough time of it. The official government numbers don't show any drought, but the farmers are reporting a lot of heat & drought stress. Sounds like it went from an all-out, globally-warmed deluge in May to 45 consecutive days without any substantial rain. I don't buy the government figures at all - they are obsolete in today's highly carbonized atmosphere. They just finally added drought here in Ohio, and it's been scorching hot and dry since May. Less than half the normal rainfall, with temps well above normal.


They don't show any drought in NW Florida but I can tell you it's been a few weeks for an substantial rain right along he coast in most cases. Inland there's been plenty of Sea Breeze thunderstorms but right along the coast we've been hot and dry. Our sandy soil dries up quick, we need rain.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
497. ChiThom
4:30 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 433. Autistic2:

(snip)
>My point, we now know this is a small planet that is tied together money wise and climate wise. Any one nation could cut their greenhouse emissions back to zero and go broke and make no difference. We will all have to work together or it just aint going to work. As Mr Putin said. We all breath the same air.

I don't see the major global economies working together until the s___ hits the fan FOR REAL. I think it was my fathers and mine generation that are leaving one big mess for our kids and grandkids. Kind of strange that the ones that created the problem are not going to live long enough to see the real results.

Solution.............got nothing...........hopefully some Americans, Russians, Chinese, etc. ALOT smarter than me.



The Germans are working it without us... and the Dutch, and the Danes, not to mention the Chinese... even the Arabs who are sitting atop all the oil are investing in solar energy! You said "We all have to work together..." so what's wrong with us in this picture? What's wrong with U.S.?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
496. Gearsts
4:30 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
495. 69Viking
4:25 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 463. bigwes6844:
Here comes the MJO


How does one read a MJO chart? Anyone have a link to a tutorial?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
494. islander101010
4:20 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
model says mjo moving into town see it to believe it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
493. ClimateChange
4:20 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 486. Loduck:

Has anybody checked to see if the earth has gotten closer to the sun or vice-versa? I dunno how much more stress my garden can take. NO rain since Colin and not much even with that and it is hell hot here in NE Fl


I think the Clean Air Act is contributing to the recent trend towards hotter and drier weather in the summertime. When I was a kid, the sky here in Ohio would always be a milky white on the hot days with limited visibilities. I remember reading studies showing a significant decline in pan evaporation rates from the past due to the haze. Heck, it was such a fact of life, that summer days were referred to as "hazy, hot and humid" as if it were some sort of natural phenomenon that accompanied the heat and humidity. This was the case up until about the late 2000s or 2010. Nowadays, the sky is blue most days. Although their still is occasionally some smog/haze, it's not anything like it used to be. I can look out my window right now (a day with temps in the 80s, dewpoints near 70), and it's a deep, deep tropical blue punctuated by vibrant white cumulus. 10, 20, 30 years ago that would've never been possible.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
492. IDTH
4:19 PM GMT on July 14, 2016

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
491. ChiThom
4:19 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 453. Poconos22:



RitaEvac - Methane is cleaner than coal when burned, but fracking - both the process and transport of fuel through the pipelines and compressor stations, releases a lot of unburned methane into the atmosphere, and methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas in the short term (20 years) than CO2. Cornell scientist Robert Howarth, who has studied hydro-fracking in the Marcellus shale play, says that fracked gas, as it is currently produced, is dirtier than coal given the unburned methane released in the process. Here is a link to a press release about his paper, and there is a link to the paper as well:
http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/2011/04/frack ing-leaks-may-make-gas-dirtier-coal


Thanks for the info, Poconos22, and welcome to the blog.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
490. NativeSun
4:19 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 443. ariot:



Humans can't relate to the geologic time scale of previous climate changes. You speak of subtropical forests in the Arctic. I'm aware of a 2012 study that found similar plant evidence in Antarctica from 52 million years ago.

No human can relate to that timescale. It is irrelevant to a human lifetime.

You speak of 3 mile ice sheets that existed when civilization hadn't really started, let's say 70,000 years ago.

No human can relate to that timescale.

Now, my grandfather was born in 1888. Since then human activity has acted as a climate force.

Anyone can relate to that timescale. A man I knew well as a child lived when the earth's atmosphere had a different chemistry that allowed for a different climate.

Assume I have a grandson, born in 2025.

He will speak of the climate of his grandfather being cooler when he becomes an adult, and he will likely know where the sea level once allowed for thriving cities but no longer does.

That is how we relate to AGW.

It's simple. It's basic, and we don't have to struggle with deep time or dismiss it as "the climate always changes."

The climate only changes when a force acts upon it.

The fact we can actually observe a change in a lifetime should be troubling to everyone.


Sorry, but the climate changes all the time, and humans are a part of the problem. 7 Billion people on a planet is not good for anything, so yes we humans to help with the problems, but how much is only a guess. What I want to know is how much the sun affects the ocean temps, lets say over a few thousand years, and how long does it take to release this heat from the oceans, after all it's the oceans that control the atmosphere, and world wide temps.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
489. 3SeaHorses
4:17 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 440. Patrap:

Facts elude the weak minded.


statement of the century...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
488. Climate175
4:07 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 482. MahFL:

Hmmm, MJO in the western Atlantic by tomorrow ?


It would appear so, but since there is no low that wants to form or no low pressure within that area that wants to take advantage of that upward motion, no system can form there now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
487. ChiThom
4:05 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 436. ILwthrfan:



I got rolled just south of you yesterday. I'm 30 minutes south of Champaign. Picked up 1.6" of rain. 1.2" of t fell in just 15 minutes. Numerous Tree damage all over town here. Anywhere from 1 to 3 foot diameter trees. Even have some siding from some structures scattered about as well. Corn just west of town flattened in a lot of areas.


We lost the top fifteen feet of a 35 ft. tall Tulip Poplar yesterday. :-(
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
486. Loduck
4:00 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Has anybody checked to see if the earth has gotten closer to the sun or vice-versa? I dunno how much more stress my garden can take. NO rain since Colin and not much even with that and it is hell hot here in NE Fl
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
485. ProPoly
3:59 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 454. washingtonian115:




Let's not have any Ivan track storms.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
484. weathermanwannabe
3:54 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
From the US Department of Commerce (April 2016): Page 35

http://trade.gov/topmarkets/pdf/Renewable_Energy_ Top_Markets_Report.pdf


China is both the world’s largest producer and
consumer of renewable energy technologies. In 2016-
2017, its rapid capacity growth will account for over 40
percent of all renewable energy capacity installed
outside the United States, with at least 100 GW added
in the solar, wind, and hydropower sectors combined
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
483. Loduck
3:52 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 415. HurricaneFan:


August has produced some powerful storms before. I would not be surprised if sometime next month, we see a very strong hurricane, possibly even a major hurricane landfall in the U.S.
I really don't know what the actual percentages would be but one either will or won't so that would be 50/50 so your odds of being right are 50 percent which is either good or bad depending on how much you bet
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
482. MahFL
3:50 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Hmmm, MJO in the western Atlantic by tomorrow ?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
481. PedleyCA
3:49 PM GMT on July 14, 2016

Some improvement, but not locally.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
480. weathermanwannabe
3:46 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 476. OviedoWatcher:



As the three biggest players in the wind power market are Siemens, GE and Vestas, none of which are Chinese, to say that 'most nations who are... buying...from the Chinese' is not strictly accurate.


As for GE, they off-shored their manufacturing to Asia in terms of most consumer goods (corporate profit motive) previously made in the US and have kept some domestic production particularly with regard to military contracts; many related to the Navy and electric technologies for submarines and the like that they were not able to export because of national security concerns. Does not change my earlier comment; the Chinese are way ahead and secure worldwide contracts, with other nations in the world, to provide infrastructure projects that include energy related products. I don't know where the Corps are headed/owned in terms of Siemans and Vestas.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
479. MahFL
3:45 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 439. Naga5000:



...which implies the first scenario is better than a cooling scenario in the current time period as you directly reference the current time and another users place of residence...


I was not talking about any time period, I do actually believe in global warming, but I think the so called problems it brings are often over exaggerated. Indeed the experts cannot even agree on how much sea level rise would occur.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
478. RitaEvac
3:42 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Going thru a flash drought already in SE TX. Vegetation stressed, watering is needed every other day at least.

Last measurable rain was June 28th,
0.51"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
477. Patrap
3:28 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Until the driving force of the Planet changes from the accumulation of wealth by men and nations to a more socially balanced and enlightened way....all is fools gold.

We continue to emit giga tonnes of CO2 into the biosphere 24/7/365 unabated.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
476. OviedoWatcher
3:26 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 452. weathermanwannabe:


They are waaaaaaaay ahead and much of that was accomplished by industrial espionage against some US companies that "partnered" with the Chinese on renewables; particularly one US company as to wind farm turbines, that they developed, but the Chinese stoled the computer source codes from the US company and have gone independent.  The Chinese are building solar and wind alternative at record paces for local consumption and for international export.

And once again, the past 8 US presidents and Congress (for the past 30 years) are either asleep at the wheel, or paid off by lobbyists, as the Chinese continue to gut our economy, take our consumer monies because of all the imports we buy from them with no level playing field, and beatng us at technological issues by using aggressive industrial espionage against us.  Most nations who are proactive about renewable energies will be buying their solar panels and wind turbines from the Chinese when it should have been the US....................Keep me up at night.   


As the three biggest players in the wind power market are Siemens, GE and Vestas, none of which are Chinese, to say that 'most nations who are... buying...from the Chinese' is not strictly accurate.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
475. weathermanwannabe
3:20 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
What is actually very cool, but somber at the same time, about the current rapid global warming period is that we triggered it with modern fossil fuel/carbon emissions but that we also have the scientific tools to document the effects across the planet and to study the effects and impacts in detail in real time as it is happening.  That is a first in human history and in spite of the projected doom and gloom scenario that many are turned off by, or ignored intentionally by those don't care because of short-term economic advantage, it is an amazing time to be alive to witness this event  as the science continues to verify the impacts.  The scientists are correct and we need for the policy makers to get in line to help with mitigation and making long-term policy decisions to help us adapt to the changing conditions.          
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
474. ClimateChange
3:14 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 434. MahFL:



Remember though the Earth has been a lot warmer than it is now, subtropical forests used to grow in the Arctic.
Now if we had global cooling and a 3 mile high glacier was on top of your house you'd have a lot more to worry about.


Good point. And they will most likely return, unless action is taken to slow global warming. Also, much of the U.S. will probably become desert or semi-arid as the subtropical dry zones expand. Can't genetically modify corn to grow in the desert.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
473. ClimateChange
3:12 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 390. Pipewhale:

100 years ago today, NYC went nuts over 88 degree weather. Granted, they lacked AC...
New York Times Article - July 13th, 1916


There would be no climate denial if there was no A/C. We'd have mass casualties every single year. Growing up, we didn't have A/C. Sure there were some unbearable days, but most days were pleasant. Especially nights. Used to drop into the 50s and low 60s most of the time. Could not do that today - it's just too hot and humid.

I mean just look at your (admittedly anecdotal) example. 88 degrees in NYC today would be a normal day. Unlikely to even cause an impact on mortality rates. 100 years ago, it was mass casualties.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
472. Naga5000
3:10 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 464. elioe:



I'm wondering how much CO2 it would take to create subtropical forests all around the Arctic. Perhaps something like 2000 ppm. For the Norwegian coast, 500 ppm might be enough, if currents get stronger.

Another thing I've thought: It would be great if Greenland and Antarctica would melt completely and become habitable. However, that raises the question: Where to put all those dozens of millions of cubic kilometres of water, so that sea levels don't rise? It's not a physical impossibility to dredge the sea floor by equivalent volume and deposit those sediments above sea level. The amount of energy needed is simply huge. With current energy prices, such project would need up to ten thousand years to be completed. So current rate of warming is one or two orders of magnitude too fast.


The impacts on the globe from that would be devastating, sea level rise aside. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum is highly studied.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
471. Patrap
3:10 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 13. Patrap:

Atmospheric CO2

June 2016

406.81


June 2015: 402.80 ppm
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
470. ClimateChange
3:05 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 438. weathermanwannabe:

And here is the Drought Monitor for the past week:

Current U.S. Drought Monitor




Finally starting to have some semblance with reality. Never seen it so dry back at my parent's place in Ohio. Finally got some storms (with minor flooding and significant wind damage) last night. Probably too little, too late for the crops. I've seen some comparisons with the drought of 1988.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
469. ClimateChange
3:02 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
The bottom line is the climate today is vastly different from at any other time in human history. A place can get a year's worth of rain one month, and then two months later be in a severe flash drought. The two are not mutually exlusive as we are in seeing in Texas this year. In the past, it may have been one or other. That's clearly no longer the case.

One place can see epic, 100-year floods, while another location 100 miles away goes two weeks without seeing a drop. The government figures aren't adequately reflecting this reality.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
468. Climate175
3:00 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 463. bigwes6844:

Here comes the MJO

The next 10 days still looking like they are going to be calm and quiet, by the looks of this, it appears there will be another surge of dry air coming middle of next week, and the waves are still coming off at a latitude at 9N-10N. Just give it about 4-5 weeks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
467. PedleyCA
3:00 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 456. Stormwatch247:

The EPAC is cranking out the storms!

1978 - the Eastern Pacific had produced up to 8 named tropical storms by the end of July, with "Fico" becoming the longest lasting hurricane of the Pacific (up to that time), and "Hector" being the strongest storm of the season.

What rises, must fall ... and the Atlantic will start to get more activity once the Pacific activity simmers down.


I only see 6 and 2 were from June, do you have a list with dates, a link.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
466. ClimateChange
3:00 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 391. hotroddan:


You are lucky... It has not rained here in central Texas in probably 2 months. I have to water my garden sometimes twice a day.


Yeah, was looking at Twitter. Sounds like you guys are having a rough time of it. The official government numbers don't show any drought, but the farmers are reporting a lot of heat & drought stress. Sounds like it went from an all-out, globally-warmed deluge in May to 45 consecutive days without any substantial rain. I don't buy the government figures at all - they are obsolete in today's highly carbonized atmosphere. They just finally added drought here in Ohio, and it's been scorching hot and dry since May. Less than half the normal rainfall, with temps well above normal.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
465. bigwes6844
2:53 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Quoting 457. Climate175:



Ill tell you one thing that wave is looking good that exit Africa definitely need to watch that by next week like Levi said yesterday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 515 - 465

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice