Ten Civilizations or Nations That Collapsed From Drought

By: Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on March 21, 2016

Drought is the great enemy of human civilization. Drought deprives us of the two things necessary to sustain life--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. While the fall of a great empire is usually due to a complex set of causes, drought has often been identified as the primary culprit or a significant contributing factor in a surprising number of such collapses. Drought experts Justin Sheffield and Eric Wood of Princeton, in their 2011 book, Drought, identify more than ten civilizations, cultures and nations that probably collapsed, in part, because of drought. As we mark World Water Day on March 22, we should not grow overconfident that our current global civilization is immune from our old nemesis--particularly in light of the fact that a hotter climate due to global warming will make droughts more intense and impacts more severe. So, presented here is a "top ten" list of drought's great power over some of the mightiest civilizations in world history--presented chronologically.



Collapse #1. The Akkadian Empire in Syria, 2334 BC - 2193 BC. In Mesopotamia 4200 years ago, the great Akkadian Empire united all the indigenous Akkadian-speaking Semites and the Sumerian speakers, and controlled Mesopotamia, the Levant, and parts of Iran, sending military expeditions as far south as present-day Oman. In a 2000 article published in Geology, "Climate change and the collapse of the Akkadian empire: Evidence from the deep sea", a team of researchers led by Heidi Cullen studied deposits of continental dust blown into the Gulf of Oman in the late 1990s. They discovered a large increase in dust 4200 years ago that likely coincided with a 100-year drought that brought a 30% decline in precipitation to Syria. The drought, called the 4.2 kiloyear event, is thought to have been caused by cooler sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The 4.2 kiloyear event has also been linked to the collapse of the Old Kingdom in Egypt (see below). The paper concluded, "Geochemical correlation of volcanic ash shards between the archeological site and marine sediment record establishes a direct temporal link between Mesopotamian aridification and social collapse, implicating a sudden shift to more arid conditions as a key factor contributing to the collapse of the Akkadian empire." In this image, we see Stele of Narâm-Sîn, king of the Akkadian Empire, celebrating his victory against the Lullubi from Zagros. Limestone, c. 2250 BC, Louvre Museum. Image credit: Marie-Lan Nguyen.




Collapse #2. The Old Kingdom of ancient Egypt, 4200 years ago. The same drought that brought down the Akkadian empire in Syria severely shrank the normal floods on the Nile River in ancient Egypt. Without regular floods to fertilize the fields, poor harvests led to reduced tax income and insufficient funds to finance the pharaoh's government, hastening the collapse of Egypt's pyramid-building Old Kingdom. An inscription on the tomb of Ankhtifi during the collapse describes the pitiful state of the country when famine stalked the land: "the whole country has become like locusts going in search of food…" In this image, we see two great structures from the Old Kingdom: The Pyramid of Khafre and the Great Sphinx of Giza. Image credit: wunderphotographer Jeff41.




Collapse #3. The Late Bronze Age (LBA) civilization in the Eastern Mediterranean. About 3200 years ago, the Eastern Mediterranean hosted some of the world’s most advanced civilizations. The Mycenaean culture was flourishing in Greece and Crete. The chariot-riding Hittites had carved out a vast empire encompassing a large part of Asia Minor and the Middle East. In Egypt, the New Kingdom was at its height. However, around 1200 BC, these Eastern Mediterranean civilizations declined or collapsed. According to a 2013 study in PLOS, studying grains of fossilized pollen shows that this collapse coincided with the onset of a 300-year drought event. This climate shift caused crop failures and famine, which "precipitated or hastened socio-economic crises and forced regional human migrations at the end of the LBA in the Eastern Mediterranean and southwest Asia." In this image, we see the fall of Troy (complete with the famed Trojan Horse), an event recounted in Greek mythology at the end of the Bronze Age, as represented by the 17th century painter Kerstiaen De Keuninck. Image credit: Wikipedia Commons.




Collapse #4. The Maya civilization of 250 - 900 AD in Mexico. Severe drought killed millions of Maya people due to famine and lack of water, and initiated a cascade of internal collapses that destroyed their civilization at the peak of their cultural development, between 750 - 900 AD. Haug, G.H. et al., in their 2003 paper in Science, "Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization," documented substantial multi-year droughts coinciding with the collapse of the Maya civilization. In this image, we see the Mayan ruins at Xunantunich. Image credit: wunderphotographer novembergale.




Collapse #5. The Tang Dynasty in China, 700 - 907 AD. At the same time as the Mayan collapse, China was also experiencing the collapse of its ruling empire, the Tang Dynasty. Dynastic changes in China often occurred because of popular uprisings during crop failure and famine associated with drought. The Tang dynasty--a golden age of literature and art in Chinese civilization--began to weaken in the eighth century, and it fully collapsed in 907 AD. Sediments from Lake Huguang Maar in China dated to the time of the collapse of the Tang Dynasty indicate a sudden and sustained decline in summertime monsoon rainfall. Agriculture in China depends upon the summer monsoon, which supplies about 70% of the year's rain in just a few months. A 2007 article in Nature by Yancheva et al. speculated that "migrations in the tropical rain belt could have contributed to the simultaneous declines of both the Tang dynasty in China and the Classic Maya in Central America." In this image, we see the world's largest sitting Buddah, the 71-metre (234-feet) tall Leshan Giant Bubbha, built in 713 AD in the Chinese Tang Dynasty, in China's southwestern city of Leshan, in Sichuan province. Image credit: Liu Jin/AFP/Getty Images.




Collapse 6. The Tiwanaku Empire of Bolivia's Lake Titicaca region, 300 - 1000 AD. The Tiwanaku Empire was one of the most important South American civilizations prior to the Inca Empire. After dominating the region for 500 years, the Tiwanaku Empire ended abruptly between 1000 - 1100 AD, following a drying of the region, as measured by ice accumulation in the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru. Sediment cores from nearby Lake Titicaca document a 10-meter drop in lake level at this time. In this image, we see tourists exploring the Tiwanaku archaeological site in Tiahuanaco, Bolivia. Image credit: AIZAR RALDES/AFP/Getty Images.




Collapse 7. The Ancestral Puebloan (Anasazi) culture in the Southwest U.S. in the 11th - 12th centuries AD. Beginning in 1150 AD, North America experienced a 300-year drought called the Great Drought. This drought has often been cited as a primary cause of the collapse of the ancestral Puebloan (formally called Anasazi) civilization in the Southwest U.S., and abandonment of places like the Cliff Palace at Mesa Verde National Park in Colorado. The Mississippian culture, a mound-building Native American civilization that flourished in what is now the Midwestern, Eastern, and Southeastern United States, also collapsed at this time. Cliff Palace image credit: wunderphotographer Amtnspirit.




Collapse #8. The Khmer Empire based in Angkor, Cambodia, 802 - 1431 AD. The Khmer Empire ruled Southeast Asia for over 600 years, but was done in by a series of intense decades-long droughts interspersed with intense monsoons in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries that, in combination with other factors, contributed to the empire's demise. The climatic evidence comes from a seven-and-a-half century reconstruction from tropical southern Vietnamese tree rings presented in a 2010 study by Buckley et al., "Climate as a contributing factor in the demise of Angkor, Cambodia". They wrote: "The Angkor droughts were of a duration and severity that would have impacted the sprawling city’s water supply and agricultural productivity, while high-magnitude monsoon years damaged its water control infrastructure." In this image, we see the ruins of Baphuon, a temple-mountain dedicated to the Hindu God Shiva in Angkor. Image credit: Jean-Pierre Dalbéra.




Collapse #9. The Ming Dynasty in China, 1368 - 1644 AD. China's Ming Dynasty--one of the greatest eras of orderly government and social stability in human history--collapsed at a time when the most severe drought in the region in over 4000 years was occurring, according to sediments from Lake Huguang Maar analyzed in a 2007 article in Nature by Yancheva et al. Drought experts Justin Sheffield and Eric Wood of Princeton, in their 2011 book, Drought, speculated that a weakened summer monsoon driven by warm El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific was responsible for the intense drought, which led to widespread famine. An inscription found carved on a wall of Dayu Cave in the Qinling Mountains of Central China dated July 10, 1596, during the 24th year of the MIng Dynasty's Emperor Wanli, said: Mountains are crying due to drought." In the image above, we see another inscription on the wall of the same cave from a much later drought in 1891. It reads: "On May 24th, 17th year of the Emperor Guangxu period (June 30th, 1891 CE), Qing Dynasty, the local mayor, Huaizong Zhu led more than 200 people into the cave to get water. A fortuneteller named Zhenrong Ran prayed for rain during a ceremony." Image credit: L. Tan.




Collapse #10. Modern Syria. Syria's devastating civil war that began in March 2011 has killed over 300,000 people, displaced at least 7.6 million, and created an additional 4.2 million refugees. While the causes of the war are complex, a key contributing factor was the nation's devastating drought that began in 1998. The drought brought Syria's most severe set of crop failures in recorded history, which forced millions of people to migrate from rural areas into cities, where conflict erupted. This drought was almost certainly Syria's worst in the past 500 years (98% chance), and likely the worst for at least the past 900 years (89% chance), according to a 2016 tree ring study by Cook et al., "Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years." Human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases were "a key attributable factor" in the drying up of wintertime precipitation in the Mediterranean region, including Syria, in recent decades, as discussed in a NOAA press release that accompanied a 2011 paper by Hoerling et al., On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought. A 2016 paper by drought expert Colin Kelley showed that the influence of human greenhouse gas emissions had made recent drought in the region 2 - 3 times more likely. Wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, has his take on the current drought in Syria in his March 21 post, Ineffective Resolution: Middle East and Climate Change. In this image, we see Kurdish Syrian girls among destroyed buildings in the Syrian Kurdish town of Kobane on March 22, 2015. Image credit: Yasin Akgul/AFP/Getty Images.

References
Buckley, B.M. et al., 2010, "Climate as a contributing factor in the demise of Angkor, Cambodia," Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107, 6748–6752 (2010).

Cook, B.I. et al., 2016, "Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years," JGR Atmospheres, DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023929

Cullen, H.M., and P.B. deMenocal, 2000, North Atlantic Influence on TIgris-Euphrates Streamflow, International Journal of Climatology, 20: 853-863.

Cullen et al., 2000, "Climate change and the collapse of the Akkadian empire: Evidence from the deep sea," Geology 28, 379 (2000).

deMenocal, P.B., 2001, "Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene," Science 292, 667–673 (2001).

Gleick, P., 2014, Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria, Weather, Climate, and Society, published online 1 July 2014, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1

Haug, G.H. et al., 2003, "Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization," Science 299, 1731–1735 (2003).

Hoerling, Martin, Jon Eischeid, Judith Perlwitz, Xiaowei Quan, Tao Zhang, Philip Pegion, 2012, On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought, J. Climate, 25, 2146–2161, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1

Kaniewski, D. et al., 2012, Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East, PNAS 109:10, 3862–3867, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1116304109

Kaniewski, D. et al., 2013, "Environmental Roots of the Late Bronze Age Crisis," PLOS one, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0071004

Kelley, C.P. et al., 2016, "Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought," PNAS vol. 112 no. 11, 3241–3246, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1421533112

Ortloff, C.R. and A.L. Kolata, 1992, "Climate and Collapse: Agro-Ecological Perspectives on the Decline of the Tiwanaku State," J. of Archaeological Science 1992, 195-221.

Wendel, JoAnna, 2015, Chinese Cave Inscriptions Tell Woeful Tale of Drought," EOS, 1 October 2015.

Yancheva, G. et al., 2007, "Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East Asian monsoon," Nature 445, 74–77 (2007).

The next post will be Wednesday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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387. vis0
3:37 PM GMT on March 23, 2016

Quoting 374. Gearsts:

Go back to sleep Godzilla! I wonder what we will name the La nina... Any ideas?


 

  • Cruella

  • Sheba(Queen though not biblically just as an ll encompasing figure)

  • Carrie

  • supergirl (supernina) CBS-likes i think

  • smurfette (STS's chiuce???)

  • "pick-or-chew" (phonetically)

  • Mononoke (Princess) ...sit down washi115

  • hey how 'bout Godzilla, it neither male nor female but if you look "closely" one ~can say its female...unless Bob Barker...ah self-censoring the rest

  • Chewbaca (W(r)ookie, see previous choice though is hairy so0...)

  • MUTOS (aGW mutation)
 

okay know was this for the blig title or La nina : - P
 
So if you enjoyed the Nina choices god now go back and read this blogbytes IMPORTANT introduction
Ten Civilizations or Nations That Collapsed From Drought

and THINK if it can be this bad naturally (as even Nativesun as stated these big droughts have happened before ) imagine how they can be worse if one adds natures (the natural) reply to the planet having more greenhouse gases building up  much i mean much faster than it occurred natural while the present complex animal,  humans walked on this planet.
As an example notice the 1 in 500 year weather extremes happening more often.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
386. bostonandrew
3:32 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Likely the USA "civilization" will end; but climate may be only one factor in sustainability
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
385. NativeSun
1:20 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 319. Llamaluvr:

It's not just my opinion, it's Scott's too, and this man knows his El Nino !!!!
Oh please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
384. WunderAlertBot
12:51 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
383. Cyclone2016
12:47 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
It seems like the El Nino just might be collapsing faster than 1997-1998....

I think it is almost certain that there will be a La Nina/Neutral leaning La Nina by Summer-Early Fall

SSTs are already warm enough to form storms off of Africa.... and its only March! And with the SST Heat Content being fairly above average in the northwest Caribbean and in the Bahamas as Joaquin showed us(and we dodged a huge bullet with that storm here in the US(though it contributed to the huge massive flooding in South Carolina, if Captain Trough wasn't there to save the day....)

If the wind shear dies down in the western atlantic/carribean/GOM, we will have a significantly bigger chance of a big storm..... two months to go I know but it is starting to look like a setup for an active and potentially dangerous hurricane season after a relatively quiet period from 2013-2015.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
382. Gearsts
12:41 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 371. JRRP7:


No La nina until nov on that forecast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
381. weathermanwannabe
12:22 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
The jet pushing into Missouri and Arkansas later today with day time heating and some lower level warm inflow from the Gulf will probably create some nice t-storms later this afternoon:

/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE01.GIF
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
380. weathermanwannabe
12:18 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
As for the possibility of severe t-storms in the MS Valley, here is the current look, temperature differentials, and related jet configuration:



Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
379. weathermanwannabe
12:13 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Good Morning Folks; the forecast chart for today and related convective outlook:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2016

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 23 2016 - 12Z Fri Mar 25 2016

...Heavy snow expected to spread from the Intermountain West to the
Northern/Central Plains and the Upper Midwest...

...Severe weather possible across the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts
of the Deep South through Thursday...

...Significant wildfire threat possible for portions of the Southwest and
into the Southern Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley...




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
378. terstorm
12:08 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
why isn't the Indus Valley civilization mentioned? It's very likely drought did them in too. A major river system along the Indian-Pakistani border---a region that's now desert--completely dried up. The river was called the Sarasvati and it passed into legend. The place names suggest the region once was much wetter than it is now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
377. Pipejazz
12:00 PM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 187. WunderGirl12:

Hey All! :)

I was wondering if I could quote you Dr. Masters on this blog posting in a paper I'm doing on some of the causes of the decline of civilizations. I really enjoyed your posting, and it is EXTREMELY helpful in my research. :)

Thanks! - Raven/WunderGirl12


How to Cite a Quote from a Blog
Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
376. hydrus
11:19 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 373. Gearsts:

Anthony Sagliani
‏@anthonywx
After some 12-15 months, trade wind anomalies in Equatorial Pacific have returned to near normal. #goodbyenino

Poor Scott...What will he do with his time...Promulgate record Nina status maybe.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
375. LargoFl
11:18 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP
SOUTH/TN VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.

...SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY
WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A RELATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN
RIVER VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

...DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY INTO KY...
WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TEND TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN AS IT
OVERSPREADS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...HEIGHT FALLS/VERY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL COINCIDE WITH A MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS
/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 50S F TN
VALLEY/ AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT MOST CONSEQUENTIAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT/EARLY-DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF MS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...ALTHOUGH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE-ADEQUATE
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AL NORTHWARD INTO
MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND KY. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD
EVOLVE...WITH SOME SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PROBABLE PARTICULARLY
WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT /CENTERED ACROSS AL AND FAR EASTERN MS/ WHERE
SOMEWHAT GREATER DESTABILIZATION/WEAKER OVERALL FORCING IS EXPECTED
COINCIDENT WITH CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. DAMAGING WINDS...SOME
SEVERE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...OH VALLEY...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THE 50S F NORTH OF THE
TN VALLEY IN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHEASTWARD-
ADVANCING UPPER TOUGH AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. THIS MODEST AMOUNT
OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH COLD FRONT-PRECEDING CLOUD
COVER/SCATTERED CONVECTION...WILL YIELD ONLY WEAK BUOYANCY WHILE
OTHERWISE LIKELY CURBING THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK. THAT SAID...STORM
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE RESIDUAL
EARLY-DAY/NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTION BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRESUMING EVEN JUST WEAK DESTABILIZATION /COUPLE HUNDRED J PER KG
MLCAPE/...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ACCENTUATED BY 50+
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 2-3 KM AGL...WILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FAST-MOVING LOW-TOPPED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND SOME TORNADO
RISK. SHOULD MORE DESTABILIZATION BECOME APPARENT...ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF KY/OH AND POSSIBLY INDIANA COULD WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

..GUYER.. 03/23/2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
374. Gearsts
10:43 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Go back to sleep Godzilla! I wonder what we will name the La nina... Any ideas?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
373. Gearsts
10:36 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Anthony Sagliani
‏@anthonywx
After some 12-15 months, trade wind anomalies in Equatorial Pacific have returned to near normal. #goodbyenino
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
372. riverat544
7:18 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 365. plantmoretrees:







Hmmm, notice any similarities?

And you didn't even show a hockey stick graph for temperatures.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
371. JRRP7
7:10 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
370. vis0
6:46 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 369. plantmoretrees:



Indeed!



Looks like we may have to cut back on the meat n dairy also..
Less cows more protein rich termite chips ...laugh... but i could see
Doritos creating a deelicious termite brand chip has lots of protein
and chances are  its what your great x 18 parents ate
many centuries ago. Ate toast ones in 6th grade taste like super crispy
chicken skins with less grease (i know the grease ads the flavorful

... heart attack.)
see
it reads as crazy but we get areas where termites exist naturally and
capture them to make flavorful chips that they'll luv in the countries
that still eat them and all one needs is a big net on a big sling shot
and when the termites come out flying snap millions captured worldwide
sent to packaging factories. Create a myth that eating 20 Lbs of them a
months are good to help male fertility (as with ivory) and watch many to
have termites hunted down by the millions without pesticides.  mmm
toasted termites with marshmallows (mitemallows at the campfire) or
McDonalds termite McMite toast lite n crispy wraps with jalapeno sauce
inside (NOT TOO FRESH OR THEY'LL EAT THE SIDEBOARD), TACO...

[please sit down taco :), didn't call ya]   

...BELL "termite chalupa"    AyeCarambola wraps, available at WALGREENS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
369. plantmoretrees
6:17 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 366. swflurker:

Sorry, they both look alike to me?




Indeed!



Looks like we may have to cut back on the meat n dairy also..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
368. vis0
6:16 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
4th try in posting this (2 freezes, 1 not quoting and...)
Quoting 359. RobertWC:

It’s not the change, it’s velocity of the change.



Quoting 363. RobertWC:
If the dinosaur impactor had landed at 2 mph, and not 70,000 mph.

vis0 zilliness adds::(we'd be dinosaur chowder?...on a big sideboard with fillet of gator dipped in fermenting amoeba sauce,  some type of woolly mammoth cream pie, blending of ant & sushi ending with a minty tooth pick made from evergreens.)



As to It’s not the change, it’s velocity of the change.


TO My crazy way of thinking,
Its not the change its the extremes of this change.

1- a) Bike  hits you at 2mph**  vs.  b) bike hitting you at 20 mph. (here speed is worse)

2- a) HEAVY Truck runs over your foot at  2mph  vs.  b). 50mph  (aforementioned in this case is worse, not speed but the extension of the weight being on ones foot, as in long term effects of CO2 being accumulative)


3- a) One dives into pool feet first at 25 mph symmetrical splash, WOW! 10 points even from the foreign judge vs. jump from the kiddie dive-board chest first at 10 mph you swear that 12 Mexican wrestlers just macho-slapped you in the chest all at once. (how humanity reacts, be foolish and think we can just act normal or tighten up the laws-loopholes so the fast ascension can be first slowed down now, as if we do not start now how is that a good example for the next generation to follow?...c'mon kids do as we did fall off the cliff yelling "all is okay" as a 20 ton weight follows us overhead ..beepbeep)
 

4- a) you read 20 words from a RobertWC comment and you have deep information that is good to be stored as knowledge vs. you "reading" 500 words of a vis0 comment and find 501 words that don't even exist in the dictionary.
 

TO ME its not just one aspect, but the many extremes that are being created by adding much more warmth than that area (this planet) can balance on the time frame of a ::

 day  (this period of time where Earth could BEGIN to clean itself was passed a few days after the industrial revolution went worldwide),

 week (this period of time where Earth could BEGIN to clean itself was passed a few months after the industrial revolution went worldwide),

 month (this period of time where Earth could BEGIN to clean itself was passed a year after the industrial revolution went worldwide),

 year (this period of time where Earth could BEGIN to clean itself was passed a decade after the industrial revolution went worldwide...and some already were warning of the dangers),

 decade (this period of time where Earth could BEGIN to clean itself was passed a generation after the industrial revolution went worldwide...and many more knew of its dangers),

 generation (this period of time where Earth could BEGIN to clean itself was passed a few generations ago, most knew by then things considered pollutants means bad things for humans, planet, all life),

 century (just passed this generation, like a speeding bullet but not out of a gun but out of a tank), 

With the "ball" still on the human side of the court which of the three "time periods" left below;
 

whether one thinks they only live once and will be judged on what they did during their physical life

whether one believes that one should leave the planet at least as they entered it or

whether  one believes they will come back
 

Which suits your need as to Earth being cleaned, before we reach the end of::

the myriad,

the epoch,    

the ...civilization?



 
===============================
i can imagine a commercial showing past generations looking at THAT generations fastest form of transportation with the word co2 = aGW on it, passing by each generation from  a unicycle, bike, hot air balloon (ironic) , boat, car steam engine, motorbike (ironic), race car (ironic), bullet train, a rocket, with the countdown beginning then words saying to we start to slow the countdown now or wait after blastoff, with a toddler looking innocently happy at the rocket to be launched on the screen.
=================================
**1a- in my case bike gets dented
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
367. plantmoretrees
6:03 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
So even if we can reduce co2 emission drastically over the next couple decades we will still have way too much in the atmosphere. I have set a personal goal of sequestering my carbon by planting trees, however it has been pointed out, more than once, that not everyone can do so. What other ideas could be implemented on a large enough scale to have an impact?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
366. swflurker
5:55 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Sorry, they both look alike to me?

Quoting 365. plantmoretrees:







Hmmm, notice any similarities?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
365. plantmoretrees
5:29 AM GMT on March 23, 2016






Hmmm, notice any similarities?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
364. swflurker
5:28 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Welcome to the J&B Blog.

Quoting 355. DMcArthur84:

This was extremely interesting and I sincerely hope that we're not in for anything like this.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
363. RobertWC
4:46 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
If the dinosaur impactor had landed at 2 mph, and not 70,000 mph.

It’s not the change, it’s velocity of the change.
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362. RobertWC
4:28 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Ten Times Faster Than a Hothouse Extinction — Human Carbon Emission is Worst in at Least 66 Million Years

“If you look over the entire … last 66 million years, the only event that we know of … that has a massive carbon release and happens over a relatively short period of time is the PETM. We actually have to go back to relatively old periods. Because in the more recent past, we don’t see anything [even remotely] comparable to what humans are currently doing.” Richard Zeebe of the University of Hawaii in a recent paper published in Nature.

Link
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361. Andrebrooks
4:26 AM GMT on March 23, 2016

Looks like more trouble for the flooded south. 😢😢😢
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360. RobertWC
4:10 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
It’s not the change, it’s velocity of the change.
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359. RobertWC
4:05 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
It’s not the change, it’s velocity of the change.
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358. RobertWC
4:03 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
I can throw a 45 cal, lead bullet at your face. I can shoot you with a 45 cal, hand gun in the face.
It’s not the change, it’s velocity of the change.
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357. Jedkins01
3:36 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 327. Grothar:

I would not be surprised if they experts call for an above average 2016 hurricane season, with possible 15-17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2-4 majors. Details to follow.......


And they will all make landfall in Florida, because the hurricane drought must end with a bang, right?
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356. Jedkins01
3:18 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
A much wetter pattern is on the way for Central and North FL:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 221904
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
304 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE HEADING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MAKING WAY FOR SEVERAL TROUGHS
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS MUCH OF THE UPPER FORCING DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A
RICH MOIST AIRMASS...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH ALONG THE FRONT...AND SEABREEZES EACH AFTERNOON. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH FRONTAL ACTIVITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
MAY BE OF MORE CONCERN. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK STALLED FRONT
WITH MID/UPPER FLOW PARALLELING THE FRONT...AND A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS
AS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOME FLOOD ISSUES...AND
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM I-4
NORTHWARD...WHERE THE BULK OF FRONTALLY-INDUCED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
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355. DMcArthur84
3:12 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
This was extremely interesting and I sincerely hope that we're not in for anything like this.
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354. Gearsts
2:59 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
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353. vis0
2:54 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington (Final product NOT an official product of either so do not use coulorkey as 100% correct)
D&T:: 201603-22;1200u_-23;0200u_COnUS+s (missing frames, a jump of 3 hrs in first 2 frames, then the normal 30min jumps)
SAT imgry:: Blend of 3 Satellite Imagery.
nutty NOTE1:: Watching to see in the next 3-7 days what WxTrend hold on nearest the majeekal device AOIs areas (incl. opposite side of zip 10016 AOIs, that would be centered off SW Australia and there its the TTTs around the outer-most AOI as opposed to the RRRs)



WYS 628x428 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/iVTQa6VUZsc(org 922x605)
wait  wait wait whatz this?  !

HHjoe i think that neon like sign in the last Sat. frame off CA. coast is a bit too much.

We know ya want the rain, but training fireflies to create that neon sign - though green friendly - is a bit too much. Please release the fireflies from the buoys and place buoys back.  Yes yes i know some of the buoys ya had transferred from recently unused SAL dominated ATL areas soo there "not being really used".   But remember washi115 (soon to be TXting115) is giving nature the reverse psychology as to deeper into cntrl ATL blow ups as to this years ATL TS season, so ya know that means?!, get yer wide view plotting maps ready and hope TS stay in the deeper sea, and away from land. (with aGW, that's sadly a harder request for nature to take seriously, IF nature could really listen to humans.)
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352. PedleyCA
2:51 AM GMT on March 23, 2016

getting warm again soon, was 71.9F max today...no fog this morning...
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351. Jedkins01
2:20 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 210. Xyrus2000:



Life expands to consume all resources until it either reaches equilibrium or collapse. During the "good times", populations expand. But if something drastic happens, something faster than life can adapt to, then drastic reductions (or extinctions) take place.

Before the modern era, we had no way to know that those "good times" would end. So empires would grow and continue on as if everything would stay that way forever. Then something like a drought happens and turns the whole thing to dust. From various events around the world, it still happens today.

Now we can predict that things are changing and will continue to change. We don't really have ignorance as any excuse anymore, and only an idiot would think we have the infrastructure/technology to deal with the events that caused these civilizations to collapse. A 20 year drought in the US midwest? Yeah, that wouldn't cause any problems.

So now we can use a common refrain from The Denier Bible, chapter 1, verse 20: "It's happened before." Yes, it has. And it will happen again. The question is, are we prepared and/or capable of handling it? The answer to that question is currently a resounding no.



The book of anti-science, chapter 2 verse 10:

"You shall not acknowledge environmental science, improvement of the environment, nor climate science, for doing so makes one a worshiper of government, and makes way for communist enslavement".


Modern society can be odd in how there can be sometimes a feeling as if modern convenience will never fail. Something tells me that if ancient societies had access to meteorological and climate prediction, that they would have likely taken the climate warnings more seriously. Many ancient societies placed vast importance on inquiring wise councils and/or higher powers on coming droughts, famines and other issues.
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350. Xyrus2000
2:03 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 276. Barefootontherocks:

The later. The audit could be set up so they would not be.


Your either completely naive or a total idiot if you really think this would happen. Look at the stupidity of the so-called "climategate" emails. Watts was posting random out of context quotes for how long? And the stupidity still rears it's ugly head from time to time when deniers run out of moronic nonsense to say. Any emails would be selectively picked and edited to create an almost Doctor Evil like persona, leaked by a staffer would would be thrown under the bus publicly but privately lauded as a "climate hero". Meanwhile, physics doesn't give a flying **** about any of that worthless garbage and continues on it's merry way towards changing our world into something markedly less friendly.

You're not out for truth or logic. At all. If you were a logical person you take all your doubt and disbelief and dive into some math, chemistry, and physics books to "prove them all wrong". But that's rub isn't it? You can't do that. Not because you're not capable, but because all the math, physics, and chemistry back up what the scientists have been saying since the 19th century.

You're really not fooling anyone on here with your "only out for logic" crap. I remember deriving and using an energy balance model in my AP physics class when I was in high school several decades ago. If you don't "get it" by now, it's because you deliberately choose not to.

Science isn't done by rifling through people's personal effects and vilifying. Science is doen by picking apart research and showing that it's flawed. Find the flaw in atmospheric physics. Show how Planck got things wrong with his equations for black body radiation. Demonstrate CO2 is not a greenhouse gas. Provide a model that explains our current observations WITHOUT violating fundamental physical principles. THAT is logic. THAT is science.
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349. SLU
1:23 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 8h8 hours ago

"leading climate scientists"
"top climate scientists"
"prominent climate scientists"
"An influential group of scientists"
#adjectives
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346. washingtonian115
12:41 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
I wonder if this could be the year? Well we say that every year and we have been lucky so far.I've mentioned earlier we brought a beach condo in Florida near Fort Lauderdale.So I'm hoping Florida is spared yet another year.
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345. tiggerhurricanes2001
12:32 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 334. Grothar:



I'm just speaking from 11,000 years experience. Two important mitigating factors will be the SST's and the westerlies. Sometimes it takes the atmosphere a little time to catch up with a declining el Nino.

Lol I agree, if we can get neutral by about June or so, I'm thinking the atmosphere should respond to a more favorable environment by about ASO. I believe El Nino impacts will linger.
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344. tiggerhurricanes2001
12:30 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 327. Grothar:

I would not be surprised if they experts call for an above average 2016 hurricane season, with possible 15-17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2-4 majors. Details to follow.......

Hmm. I'm thinking 12-15, 4-6, 2-4 right now due to the fact of the cold water from the far north Atlantic bleeding into the far eastern Atlantic. Dr Klotzbach stated this at the National Hurricane Conference. ACE:100-120.
Quoting 335. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

and we already have number 1 so we have 15 too 19 to go

Interesting, your numbers. I have already entered Maxweather's Hurricane Scorecard at 16,7,4. For right NOW I'm thinking 12-15.
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343. Tazmanian
12:12 AM GMT on March 23, 2016
Quoting 340. HurricaneFan:

Here's my March forecast numbers:
Atlantic - 16/7/3
East Pacific - 13/7/2

Both already have one hurricane total.

I think the Pacific will start out fast, with an early C3-C4 storm in June. However, as La Nina develops, the season should rapidly wind down. Atlantic may follow the opposite trend, with activity peaking in late September/early October.



If you mean the C PAC yes. But not the E PAC so far this season we have not had any named storms in the E PAC but we have had a hurricane in the C PAC back in JAN
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342. bappit
11:52 PM GMT on March 22, 2016
India's big move into solar is already paying off
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341. RobertWC
11:46 PM GMT on March 22, 2016
KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:16 PM GMT on March 22, 2016

Faster and faster, pales with PETM study today. By my numbers we are 10 times faster than the PETM.
And we did it in just 200 years , the PETM took 4,000 years.

We need a better phrase. Something like : "Oh my God ................................................ "


Buckle your chin strap.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
340. HurricaneFan
11:42 PM GMT on March 22, 2016
Here's my March forecast numbers:
Atlantic - 16/7/3
East Pacific - 13/7/2

Both already have one hurricane total.

I think the Pacific will start out fast, with an early C3-C4 storm in June. However, as La Nina develops, the season should rapidly wind down. Atlantic may follow the opposite trend, with activity peaking in late September/early October.
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339. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
11:40 PM GMT on March 22, 2016
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338. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
11:31 PM GMT on March 22, 2016
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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