At Least 5 Killed as Tornadoes, Howling Thunderstorm Winds Rake Eastern US

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters , 5:58 PM GMT on February 25, 2016

Whipping northward at interstate speeds, multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms raced from the Carolinas to New England on Wednesday and early Thursday. The springlike round of severe weather--which extended unusually far north for February--took one life in South Carolina and at least four in Virginia, making Wednesday the latter state’s deadliest tornado day since the notorious Super Outbreak of April 27, 2011. Three people, including a two-year-old boy, were killed in hard-hit Waverly, VA, and another man died in Appomattox County (see photo of the Appomattox tornado at bottom).


Figure 1. Lightning lights up the night sky behind a home in Waverly, Va, that was hit by a tornado earlier in the day, Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2016. Fast-moving storms swept into Virginia on Wednesday, leaving at least three dead in the tiny farming town of Waverly and injuring several others across the state, authorities said. Image credit: Todd Spencer/ The Virginian-Pilot via AP.

Fierce winds at the surface and aloft
Wednesday’s storms lived up to the soberly worded outlooks issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) earlier in the day. Local NWS offices across the region had their hands full keeping up with dozens of tornadic supercells and line segments with embedded rotation. Many locations were under tornado warnings at least twice throughout the day. Winds at all levels were howling from the south, which allowed individual storm cells to scream north while lines of storms translated slowly eastward. At least one warning cited a cell motion of 100 mph, which is extremely unusual in an NWS warning. These “training” echoes led to many 2” - 3” rain totals from the Washington, D.C., area north across much of New England. Capital Weather Gang’s Jason Samenow dubbed the storm in D.C. “arguably one of the fiercest since the June 2012 derecho.”

Even apart from thunderstorms, the southerly winds produced widespread gusts above 40 mph. By 7 am EST Thursday morning, NOAA/SPC had racked up at least 17 tornado reports and more than 300 reports of high wind, extending from Florida to Maine. Hail up to baseball size was reported near Tungsten, NC, and Castle Heights, VA.

The surprise element Wednesday night was how far north the action extended. A wedge of cold air eroded more quickly than expected, allowing warm, moist air to surge north ahead of a slow-moving cold front. This warm front set the stage for late-night thunderstorms that would be impressive for the region in May, much less February. By late Wednesday night, severe thunderstorm watches had been placed as far poleward as southern Vermont and eastern Massachusetts “If not unprecedented, I'd characterize yesterday as ‘highly unusual’,” said Greg Carbin, warning and coordination meteorologist for NOAA/SPC.

At 9 PM EST Tuesday, Boston’s Logan Airport was fogged in, with nearly calm winds and the temperature a clammy 42°F. By 3 AM Wednesday, the temperature had jumped to 61°F, with south winds gusting to 46 mph. Meteorologist Jacob Wycoff noted that the last time western Massachusetts experienced a severe thunderstorm warning in February was nearly 20 years ago--on Feb. 22, 1997. Winds at the iconic Blue Hill Observatory, the nation’s oldest continuous weather station, gusted to 74 mph just before the storms moved in around 3 AM.


Figure 2. Model depictions of winds at 250 mb, or about 34,000 feet (left) and 850 mb, or about 5,000 feet (right), produced at 7:00 pm EST Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2016, and valid at 1:00 am Thursday. The strong upper-level jet at left was projected to head toward New England with 250-mb winds topping 140 knots (160 mph). Strong diffluence--evident in the wind contours parting as they approach New England--supported vigorous thunderstorm growth. At right, a large area of 850-mb winds was projected to exceed 64 knots (74 mph). Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.


Figure 3. WunderMap radar depiction at 2:15 am EST Thursday showed a robust line of thunderstorms--several of them severe--moving across central New England, with weaker secondary storms over central New York. A shield of snow extended from Quebec into the central U.S.

Winter weather pummels Midwest
While the Eastern Seaboard grappled with springlike storms, areas from Missouri to Michigan were plastered by a more seasonable round of heavy snow. Power was knocked out to thousands, and dozens of vehicles were stuck overnight in Chicago’s Grant Park, according to weather.com. Accumulations of up to 11" hit the northern suburbs of Detroit, and the exceptionally wet, heavy nature of the snow led to warnings that heart attacks were likely for those with heart conditions who attempted to shovel the cement-like stuff.


Figure 4. My Davis Weather Station needed a solar panel brush-off after 11" of wet, heavy snow caked it overnight. The northern suburbs of Detroit where I live got the highest accumulations of anywhere in Michigan from the storm. - Jeff Masters

Next week: rinse and repeat?
After a more tranquil weekend and an uneventful start to next week, the eastern U.S. could see another powerhouse storm system. Long-range models are suggesting the potential for an inland nor’easter not unlike the one just departing, with severe weather again possible from the South to the mid-Atlantic and perhaps northward from there. El NIño commonly intensifies severe weather across the Gulf states during winter, but multiple rounds of severe storms north of the Carolinas would be a more unorthodox happening.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this week's tornadoes
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, is responding to this week's devastating tornadoes. Since a large area was affected, Portlight is focusing on identifying those who lost their mobility thru loss of walkers, wheel and powerchairs, and where home ramps will need to be rebuilt or replaced. You can check out their progress on the Portlight Blog or donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

We’ll be back on Friday with our next post.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters



Severe Rainbow (whhogan)
Rainbow at the trailing edge of a severe storm in North Carolina.
Severe Rainbow

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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213. spbloom
9:02 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 165. NativeSun:

Bloom, one day you will understand, and then you can have a good laugh.
You're making an incorrect assumption about my age. But then it matches most of your other assumptions, so what the hell.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
212. NativeSun
8:17 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 207. annabatic:

NativeSun.. please watch the italic/quote thing - thank you.
No Problem
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
211. vis0
4:51 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
...On a NativeSun comment earlier on the blogbyte...

Quoting 139. Naga5000:




Please do
spell it out for us. The article from CNN reported why he was leaving,
but you keep dancing around some problem with Miami Beach and change.
What change is that, NativeSun? A change so great it would cause you to
leave the area no less. What exactly is the problem there if not what
has been reported to be the case? Pray tell.
Quoting 145. Xyrus2000:



You know, it could show the guy in a boat pointing to what used to be his house, permanently inundated by ocean water due to sea level rise, and people like NativeSun would swear up and down that the real reason the guy was leaving was crime rates. :P
hmmm, you have a double point.
See, if one treated their (property) home as some treat today their (planet) Home, that person is involved in a crime known as vandalism.



vandalism[van-dl-iz-uh m]




noun

1. deliberately mischievous or malicious destruction or damage of property: vandalism of public buildings.



2. the conduct or spirit characteristic of the Vandals.


3. willful or ignorant destruction of artistic or literary treasures.


4. a vandalic act.

...courtesy of Dictionary.com

 Here, some are worried that some people will ruin their neighborhood, yet they engage in ruining the world?   






Isn't that "speeeeshall"!



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
210. WunderAlertBot
4:50 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
209. JNFlori30A
4:41 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 177. LargoFl:

none alive today will ever see this happen.
..not sure if that's optimistic or pessimistic!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
208. daddyjames
4:39 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 191. canyonboy:

Here is the NOAA link for sea level trends for North America.


NOAA Sea Level Trends

Most areas of the US have a trend of 0-1 foot per century rise similar to pre-industrialization rates since the end of the last Ice Age. Other areas have a different rate due to subsidence or uplift.

I'm curious how other entities arrive at such radically different sea level rise rates.




Well their webpage does give an indication as to why there are different estimations.


Products
The mean sea level (MSL) trends measured by tide gauges that are presented on this web site are local relative MSL trends as opposed to the global sea level trend. Tide gauge measurements are made with respect to a local fixed reference level on land; therefore, if there is some long-term vertical land motion occurring at that location, the relative MSL trend measured there is a combination of the global sea level rate and the local vertical land motion. The global sea level trend has been recorded by satellite altimeters since 1992 and the latest calculation of the trend can be obtained from NOAA's Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry, along with maps of the regional variation in the trend. The University of Colorado's Sea Level Research Group compares global sea level rates calculated by different research organizations and provides detailed explanations about the issues involved.

Notices
June, 2014 -- The three Alaskan stations at Yakutat (9453220), Cordova (9454050), and Valdez (9454240) appear to show increasingly non-linear relative sea level changes. This could be due to changing vertical tectonic motion in the area or increasing melting of the glaciers in the vicinity and the resulting elastic rebound of the earth's crust. Previously, separate mean sea level trends were calculated for the data before and after an earthquake in February 1979. To obtain a better estimate of the more recent mean sea level trend, separate trends are now recalculated for the data before and after an earthquake in March 1988.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
207. annabatic
4:29 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
NativeSun.. please watch the italic/quote thing - thank you.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
206. BobHenson
4:25 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 196. georgevandenberghe:

Nit picking warning!!!!

"Strong divergence--evident in the wind contours parting as they approach New England--suppo"


Wind contours parting is not divergence it's diffluence. Many early undergraduate met students get nailed on this mistake.

But to muddy the situation further, they ARE correlated!


Of course, you are correct, George. My bad--and I know better! :-) Here's a short, classic writeup by Eric Thaler (NWS/DEN) on the difference. In a nutshell, diffluence is only one part of divergence, and you can actually have diffluent and convergent flow at the same time.

Diffluence and Divergence Are Not Synonyms
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
205. Patrap
4:23 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 197. dabirds:

Battle of Evermore just finished Pat, long day of LZ A-Z has begun! Appropriate for the meme! Nice & sunny in S C IL, one of the stations just broke freezing, 30.3"+, winds lighter from the NW. Most are not fully back on line post storm, guess 45-50 gusts were too much. May have repeat next week.


..the pain of War cannot exceed, the woe of aftermath'


We watching the progs on next week closely here fo sure.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
204. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
4:23 PM GMT on February 26, 2016


all quiet for now
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
203. NativeSun
4:16 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 199. annabatic:

Just to add a little to the discussion of waterfront property ownership... I've met a few people who have about a 10 year window for how they want to spend the rest of their lives. They don't really care about tsunamis or earthquakes or sea level rise, because they think, what are the odds of something serious happening in 10 years? If they also don't care about leaving money to heirs, then they may as well live wherever they want - and a few of these people do live at 1' elevation.

If I had a long life expectancy and owned Florida waterfront right now, I'd be thrilled that there are still people willing to buy.( I still hopefully have a long life expectancy, and don't plan on selling our waterfront property, and will be leaving it to my son when I pass on. )
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
202. Gearsts
4:12 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago
We're going to come back to this in 3-4 weeks when the downwelling oceanic KW attenuates in the eastern Pac. Bad CFS

img src="
Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
HUGE signal for La Nina right around the corner via the evolution of a strong upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave o/the DL

forecastguy ‏@forecastguy 3h3 hours ago
@MJVentrice Or a temporary signal from #Winston and #Yalo that does not progress eastward?

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
@forecastguy Winston/Yalo promoted westerlies about the equator no? So those cyclones were trying to counter this beast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
201. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
4:08 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
interlude


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
200. vis0
4:01 PM GMT on February 26, 2016

Quoting 124. NativeSun:

And please don't

believe everything you read on the internet. If you live where Dan

lives, you would notice the changes to that area of Miami Beach, then

you would really understand why he is leaving, and I would
too.



Quoting 139.
Naga5000:




Please do spell it out for us. The article
from CNN reported why he was leaving, but you keep dancing around some problem
with Miami Beach and change. What change is that, NativeSun? A change so great
it would cause you to leave the area no less. What exactly is the problem there
if not what has been reported to be the case? Pray tell.

As to Qu124,


Baah-REAKING NEWS,  nature does not
discriminate

Then as to another comment made by NativeSun
"
If their is a crash in property value it will be in many
centuries from
now, due to a natural rise in sea level due to a warming
climate
.
"

Good you understand the globe is
warming.
The error i see is maybe NativeSun does
not want to take responsibilities for NativeSun's generations errors (again
passing the buck...yes the first letter is B!)

If the
warming is happening and NativeSun thinks most of it is natural that
means some aGW component is adding to that warming.

Why not start
engaging the locomotives breaks now 3 mile away from the train bridge which you
can see the train bridge being washed away by raging floods instead of engaging
the breaks 50 feet from the cliff?

This aGW is going to take some
time to stop,  

THINK
if humanity would have taken aGW more
seriously decades ago we could have youngsters thinking up new ideas/inventions
TODAY, we could have stricter laws in place now and more cars on the road using
more "ecogreen" engines and you'd have more money to spend on buying those beach
front properties...though if aGW were slowed down a bit some would not be
moving.

Thinking of creating an on-line game like MONOPOLY but
call it    
Mamananoploy     
MAMANANA
POLY (washi115 stop singing that "tune"
)

The game would be an on-line and we'd have players
like
Hydrus, BBrian, Dr. Rood vs. Mr. Limbaugh,
host of climatescepticsparty, Mr.
Bastardi.

You win
lose money by buying property (properties values rise or fall due to what real
weather is happening as to the property bought,.
 i.e. you buy an island in
SWestern Pacific and no flooding occur you earn "mucho dinero" if flooding
happens even after you spent money to build a wall around the island you lose
big time, Si?

You have to pay for traveling around the board (detours
due to weather inconveniences cost you more)and your health improves if CO2 or
pollutants go down or deteriorate is CO2 or pollutants go up..

(a timer
via servers adds to the virtual game property deterioration due to rust,
termites, flies, mildew, cracks in walls on a timed schedule based on weather /
climate of the area in real life where your
MAMANAPOLY property exists just as in
real life things need upkeep.

This ain't your father Monopoly, its
Mamanoploy (have

Me?
i play the part of Jim Cantore,
reporting LIVE from serious weather events so if you see me arriving near your
property SELL!!! (& since its really "vis0" HIDE THE FOOD!)Enthusiastic crowd played by STS.All number crunching and official stats done by Webber, Taz and aquak9 LTD.

Games art?...
CREDIT FOR IMAGES (though i edited both images, used the paint brush
known as Art Lic.)

(remember most images i use are w/o permission nor do i visit their sites,
so be cautious when going to those sites)

(Monopoly character:: http://the3dagency.com/hasbro/)
(mother nature painting:: http://www.thegreatillusion.com/mother.html)
 

Proceeds go to Portlight,
(announcer:: available at walgreens)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
199. annabatic
3:59 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Just to add a little to the discussion of waterfront property ownership... I've met a few people who have about a 10 year window for how they want to spend the rest of their lives. They don't really care about tsunamis or earthquakes or sea level rise, because they think, what are the odds of something serious happening in 10 years? If they also don't care about leaving money to heirs, then they may as well live wherever they want - and a few of these people do live at 1' elevation.

If I had a long life expectancy and owned Florida waterfront right now, I'd be thrilled that there are still people willing to buy.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
198. hydrus
3:58 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
This type of set up would be bad for the U.S.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
197. dabirds
3:52 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Battle of Evermore just finished Pat, long day of LZ A-Z has begun! Appropriate for the meme! Nice & sunny in S C IL, one of the stations just broke freezing, 30.3"+, winds lighter from the NW. Most are not fully back on line post storm, guess 45-50 gusts were too much. May have repeat next week.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
196. georgevandenberghe
3:52 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Nit picking warning!!!!

"Strong divergence--evident in the wind contours parting as they approach New England--suppo"


Wind contours parting is not divergence it's diffluence. Many early undergraduate met students get nailed on this mistake.

But to muddy the situation further, they ARE correlated!




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
195. Patrap
3:44 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Published on Feb 25, 2016

Dr. Michael Mann, Earth System Science Center-Penn State University/Dire Predictions: Understanding Climate Change (2nd edition) joins Thom. Scientists Are Officially Freaked Out By Climate Change! It's a been a weird winter in many parts of America - but nothing compared to the wild winter the Arctic is having. Is this a sign that we've passed or are about to pass another global warming tipping point?

For more information on the stories we've covered visit our websites at thomhartmann.com - freespeech.org - and RT.com. You can also watch tonight's show on Hulu - at Hulu.com/THE BIG PICTURE and over at The Big Picture YouTube page. And - be sure to check us out on Facebook and Twitter!





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
194. Patrap
3:41 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
2016, the Year the Global AGW induced forcing's bring the Pain.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
193. AGWcreationists
3:40 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Officials: Lancaster County tornado unprecedented
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
192. AGWcreationists
3:39 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Lancaster County, PA tornado damage
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
191. canyonboy
3:36 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Here is the NOAA link for sea level trends for North America.


NOAA Sea Level Trends

Most areas of the US have a trend of 0-1 foot per century rise similar to pre-industrialization rates since the end of the last Ice Age. Other areas have a different rate due to subsidence or uplift.

I'm curious how other entities arrive at such radically different sea level rise rates.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
190. NativeSun
3:31 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 173. weathermanwannabe:



Might not take that long on the aquifer issue:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/3/19/1372031/- The-phenomenon-that-can-not-be-spoken-in-Florida-c ontinues-as-salt-water-intrusion-moves-inland


The densely populated megalopolis of South Florida is losing it's water wells as sea water intrudes into the Biscayne Aquifer. Salt water has already moved 6 miles inland in Broward County and is likely to continue to creep westward. Ninety percent of South Florida gets its drinking water from underground supplies, most from the Biscayne aquifer. This inland movement observed in Broward County is due to urban withdrawals from the Biscayne Aquifer, ocean water moving sideways into the aquifer and seepage of saltwater from surface sources.
This has been happening for a long time, but is not due as much to sea level rise as overpopulation, and the over use of our fresh water supply.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
189. Naga5000
2:50 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 184. FLwolverine:

Re: Sea level rise in the Florida Keys.

Apparently there is a long, reliable record of sea level measurements in the Keys. I can't post the NOAA chart from my tablet, but here's the link:

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrend s_station.shtml?stnid=8724580

and here's the summary:

The mean sea level trend is 2.33 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence
interval of +/- 0.15 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from
1913 to 2014 which is equivalent to a change of 0.77 feet in 100 years.

Sorry if the actual measurements contradict an individual's eye-balled assessment.


And it's always important to remember that while they give you a linear trend, sea level rise is not linear nor is the trend predictive.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
188. ACSeattle
2:36 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 168. weathermanwannabe:

On the sea level rise issue and South Florida, you can consider investing in in-land apartment complexes in the future but once the seas rise enough (in about 80 years) to overwhelm the fresh water aquifers (unless they invest in seawalls and desalinization plants) game over.

At the end of this era, Mother Nature will win the game and reclaim the Everglades as a salt-water marsh land........................................

Mother Nature? Seriously? Just ignore that annoying lil' 'ole ***** and she'll go away, where she belongs.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
187. ricderr
2:32 PM GMT on February 26, 2016


An El Niño’s effect on weather can be complex, and in some cases didn’t behave as predicted. In drought-ravaged California, for example, meteorologists thought the ocean temperature phenomenon probably would bring above-average rain to the southern part of the state in January, with a lesser chance of precipitation in the north.

Instead, the opposite happened — southern California stayed pretty much bone dry with just three days of rainfall, while northern California got the coveted rain and snow in the mountains.

But in any case, it’s time to start bidding farewell to El Niño. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest status report notes that while still strong, it’s on the wane, and by May or June, temperatures should be back to the norm.


In fact, NOAA says there’s a possibility that during the fall, we may actually see Pacific Ocean temperatures swing in the other direction, so that we get an La Niña — that is, an unusually cold east-central Equatorial Pacific.


La Niña tends to bring nearly opposite effects of El Niño to the United States. According to the Weather Channel, that could mean that the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley will be wetter than average, while the southern part of the United States will be drier. Temperature-wise, an area stretching from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains will be cooler than usual, while the South, the Ohio Valley an the mid-Atlantic states will see above-average temperatures.

While La Niña doesn’t occur as often as El Niño, it often lasts longer, persisting or occurring for two or more years.The most recent La Niña was a relatively weak event in 2011-12. Here’s a historical chart.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
186. FLwolverine
2:32 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
A lot of people are concerned about sea level rise in the Keys. Here's a link to a good summary by the Union of Concerned Scientists:

http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/ 2015/10/encroaching-tides-florida-keys.pdf

The opening paragraph:

By 2045, the sea level in the Florida Keys will rise 15 inches, according to a projection by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (SFRCCC Sea Level Rise Working Group 2015). As a result, the city of Key West—the economic powerhouse of Monroe County, Florida—would see more than 300 tidal flooding events per year within the lifetime of today’s 30-year mortgages. The flooding that wreaks peri- odic havoc on the city’s small business hubs like Duval Street, for example, would occur regularly. Key West already suffers from flooding during extreme high tides, with water washing into streets, businesses, and homes, particularly when those tides combine with rainfall (Sweet et al. 2014).



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
185. ricderr
2:26 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 177. LargoFl:

none alive today will ever see this happen.


alrighty then...let's just all party...have a good time...and screw future generations.....i mean...we won't be alive....who cares about those poor suckers.......tough luck you guys......we're too busy sipping our highballs and dancing to our favorite beat...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
184. FLwolverine
2:25 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Re: Sea level rise in the Florida Keys.

Apparently there is a long, reliable record of sea level measurements in the Keys. I can't post the NOAA chart from my tablet, but here's the link:

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrend s_station.shtml?stnid=8724580

and here's the summary:

The mean sea level trend is 2.33 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence
interval of +/- 0.15 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from
1913 to 2014 which is equivalent to a change of 0.77 feet in 100 years.

Sorry if the actual measurements contradict an individual's eye-balled assessment.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
183. Qazulight
2:24 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Concerning sea level rise.

The problem with coastal area is not the actual sea level rise. The problem is that there are very smart people who approve financial transactions. Those people will look at the data and determine that the risk reward is poor. When that happens, you will get a very bad economic situation.

You are already seeing it with the very high insurance rates in coastal Florida. However, this is just the beginning. In other places like the upper Gulf Coast you will see less and less money go into maintaining and improving the oil infrastructure. At some point the competitive advantage, and it is a huge one, will disappear. When that happens you will see a Detroit like result.

By the way, we talk about all the bad things that happened in Detroit and blame it on one favorite whipping boy are another. What really happened was technology, specifically shipping technology removed Detroit's competitive advantage.

While Florida is not really an industrial state, it does have tourism. As a tourist am less and less likely to travel to south Florida. The cost of transport is low enough that I can vacation on the Yucatan, enjoy cleaner beaches and have a good time. Not only that, the last time I was in the Keys, 2008, the reefs looked like a moon scape, although I will admit the rest of the Caribbean isn't doing so well either.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
182. Llamaluvr
2:24 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 169. NativeSun:

The Nino is toast, if you want to believe in the Nino lasting through 2016, and basing it on the worst of the worst model for predicting ENSO events, then so be it, but don't get upset when it doesn't materialize. Neutral to Nina conditions in the summer of 2016, extending for 3 yrs. or so.
Some people just don't see the light, or in this case the Qazulight.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
181. weathermanwannabe
2:07 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
180. ariot
9:01 AM EST on February 26, 2016

Outstanding summary................Reminds me of Alvin Toffler with his Future World from the 70's. The explosion in the global population in recent decades has actually exceeded the readily available natural resources and we are all fighting for the scraps at this point at many levels..........And climate change on top of that is a huge issue.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
180. ariot
2:01 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Forget all the ice melting. There's enough melt in the pipeline now to upset all the apple carts. We (collectively) are so far out of the margins of reality in terms of economic, political and energy matters that it won't take 80 years to have people moving in large numbers. It's happening elsewhere now, and the systems where it is happening can't handle 5 million or so people who are evacuating from drought and war to multiple countries. Even that is showing tears at the seams. Sometimes I think our policy makers don't even watch an hour of world news during the course of a week. Our future is right there, on the screen.

Now apply that to any region of the US and watch the sparks fly.

All the remaining steps are radical and unlike anything in the recent policy era.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
179. weathermanwannabe
1:54 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Here is the deal from a recent study on sea level rise:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/02/sea-levels -are-rising-their-fastest-rate-2000-years

“The big takeaway is that the modern rate of sea level rise in the 20th century is faster than anything we’ve seen in the previous two millennia,” says Benjamin Horton, a Rutgers University, New Brunswick, in New Jersey geologist who helped direct one of the studies. “This isn’t a model. This is data.”

Some of the studies provide a detailed account of changes in sea level and the Antarctic ice sheet, a story embedded in fossils and rocks at the ocean’s edge. They also add to a growing body of research that suggests sea level can change more dramatically over a short time than previously suspected, says Andrea Dutton, a University of Florida in Gainesville geologist and a leading expert on reconstructing ancient sea levels.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
178. Neapolitan
1:52 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 168. weathermanwannabe:

On the sea level rise issue and South Florida, you can consider investing in in-land apartment complexes in the future but once the seas rise enough (in about 80 years) to overwhelm the fresh water aquifers (unless they invest in seawalls and desalinization plants) game over.

At the end of this era, Mother Nature will win the game and reclaim the Everglades as a salt-water marsh land........................................
FWIW, I--and a growing number of scientists--don't believe South Florida has anywhere closer to 80 years of good living left. A couple of decades at best, especially given that sea walls won't do a thing. South Florida is doomed. Period.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
177. LargoFl
1:45 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
none alive today will ever see this happen.
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176. weathermanwannabe
1:45 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
And if all the ice melts, in 300 years (if I was around), I would invest in dive and fishing charters; all those coastal homes and buildings will make great artificial reefs.................................
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175. LargoFl
1:43 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
IF..all the Ice melted............................................ ........................
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174. LargoFl
1:39 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
173. weathermanwannabe
1:30 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 171. NativeSun:

It will take more than 80 yrs., but eventually it will happen, as a lot of Florida was underwater in the past, and there will also be a time in the future where Miami Beach will be far from the ocean.


Might not take that long on the aquifer issue:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/3/19/1372031/- The-phenomenon-that-can-not-be-spoken-in-Florida-c ontinues-as-salt-water-intrusion-moves-inland


The densely populated megalopolis of South Florida is losing it's water wells as sea water intrudes into the Biscayne Aquifer. Salt water has already moved 6 miles inland in Broward County and is likely to continue to creep westward. Ninety percent of South Florida gets its drinking water from underground supplies, most from the Biscayne aquifer. This inland movement observed in Broward County is due to urban withdrawals from the Biscayne Aquifer, ocean water moving sideways into the aquifer and seepage of saltwater from surface sources.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
172. tiggerhurricanes2001
1:29 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 169. NativeSun:

The Nino is toast, if you want to believe in the Nino lasting through 2016, and basing it on the worst of the worst model for predicting ENSO events, then so be it, but don't get upset when it doesn't materialize. Neutral to Nina conditions in the summer of 2016, extending for 3 yrs. or so.

I doubt it'll continue, I'm just stating facts. Majority of Statistical and Dynamical. models forecast la nina.
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171. NativeSun
1:26 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 168. weathermanwannabe:

On the sea level rise issue and South Florida, you can consider investing in in-land apartment complexes in the future but once the seas rise enough (in about 80 years) to overwhelm the fresh water aquifers (unless they invest in desalinization plants) game over.

At the end of this era, Mother Nature will win the game and reclaim the Everglades as a salt-water marsh land........................................
It will take more than 80 yrs., but eventually it will happen, as a lot of Florida was underwater in the past, and there will also be a time in the future where Miami Beach will be far from the ocean.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
170. tiggerhurricanes2001
1:24 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 166. StormTrackerScott:



2014 we had record warm anomalies try to surface but easterly trades keep coming thus retarding the warming process. This year it seem the opposite cool water trying to upwell while WWB keep coming. Going to be interesting over the next month to see if a new OKW initiates.

You're not that bad of person. Lol everyone seems to throw shots at you. Yeah, this definitely will influence the level of activity in both basins this hurricane season. I think we have a 50/50 shot at la nina. I say at least an average season in both basins. The rate at which this el nino deteriorates, and a la nina develops will definitely affect our weather worldwide. Interesting 2016 ENSO YEAR.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
169. NativeSun
1:23 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 163. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I agree STS. HOWEVER, Nino regions 1 and 2 have shot up in response to a downwellling phase. Nino 3.4 is now a little under 2.0 degrees Celsius.
Quoting 163. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I agree STS. HOWEVER, Nino regions 1 and 2 have shot up in response to a downwellling phase. Nino 3.4 is now a little under 2.0 degrees Celsius.
The Nino is toast, if you want to believe in the Nino lasting through 2016, and basing it on the worst of the worst model for predicting ENSO events, then so be it, but don't get upset when it doesn't materialize. Neutral to Nina conditions in the summer of 2016, extending for 3 yrs. or so.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
168. weathermanwannabe
1:21 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
On the sea level rise issue and South Florida, you can consider investing in in-land apartment complexes in the future but once the seas rise enough (in about 80 years) to overwhelm the fresh water aquifers (unless they invest in seawalls and desalinization plants) game over.

At the end of this era, Mother Nature will win the game and reclaim the Everglades as a salt-water marsh land........................................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
167. tiggerhurricanes2001
1:19 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 161. StormTrackerScott:



There is a big upwelling event about to occur but what maybe interesting going forward is as the cool water tries to upwell it might get retarded by the warming westerly wind anomalies. To me this somewhat seems like 2014 but the opposite effect. Next 3 to 4 weeks is key to the whole year IMO.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
166. StormTrackerScott
1:19 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 163. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I agree STS. HOWEVER, Nino regions 1 and 2 have shot up in response to a downwellling phase. Nino 3.4 is now a little under 2.0 degrees Celsius.


2014 we had record warm anomalies try to surface but easterly trades keep coming thus retarding the warming process. This year it seem the opposite cool water trying to upwell while WWB keep coming. Going to be interesting over the next month to see if a new OKW initiates.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
165. NativeSun
1:18 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 154. spbloom:

By all means ignore the science and take whatever consequences come your way. If you're old enough, it might even work out for you.
Bloom, one day you will understand, and then you can have a good laugh.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
164. weathermanwannabe
1:16 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
And the highs for today:
Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
163. tiggerhurricanes2001
1:16 PM GMT on February 26, 2016
Quoting 161. StormTrackerScott:



There is a big upwelling event about to occur but what maybe interesting going forward is as the cool water tries to upwell it might get retarded by the warming westerly wind anomalies. To me this somewhat seems like 2014 but the opposite effect. Next 3 to 4 weeks is key to the whole year IMO.

I agree STS. HOWEVER, Nino regions 1 and 2 have shot up in response to a downwellling phase. Nino 3.4 is now a little under 2.0 degrees Celsius.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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