F4 tornado reported; Brazilian disturbance fizzles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27 PM GMT on March 16, 2006

Violent tornadoes--one rated F4 or F5 on the Fujita scale--are extremely rare. Only one was reported last year, the F4 November 15, 2005 tornado that injured 37 people when it swept through Madisonville, Kentucky. A damage survey completed yesterday afternoon revealed that a violent F4 tornado crossed through Monroe County, Missouri on the evening of March 12. Winds from the tornado were estimated at the lower end of the F4 scale (208-260 mph). The F4 rating was given after meteorologists found a well-built home that had been completely leveled, with debris from the home carried over 1/2 mile away. A pickup truck at the home was lifted and tossed over 100 yards into the living room of an adjacent home. Fortunately, the tornado was much weaker (F1 - F2) when it plowed through the nearby town of Monroe.

Damage surveys from the March 11-13 tornado outbreak still continue, and it is still uncertain how many tornadoes occurred. I wouldn't be surprised if the outbreak turns out to be the largest of the year--the average number of tornadoes for the entire month of March is only 63, and we came close to that in one weekend! However, with the April-June peak of tornado season still to come, we can expect a lot more severe weather this Spring. Severe weather may resume on Tuesday, when the first of a series of major storm systems is expected to move across the country. These systems will also bring a small measure of drought relief to some drought-stricken areas of Texas, Arizona, and surrounding states.

Brazilian disturbance fizzles
The tropical disturbance that was off the Brazilian coast yesterday has lost all of its deep convection, and is now just a swirl of low clouds. No further development of this system is likely--wind shear remains too high to allow deep convection to reform over this low. Climatologia Urbana de Sao Leopoldo, a private weather center in the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil, has posted a detailed analysis of this system. It helps if you can read Portugese!

Jeff Masters

Golf ball hail (nanaphotos)
Shown next to a house key. These arent as big as some of them were but I wasn't going to stay out there trying to get bigger ones. Lots of damage to cars and houses around here from hail.
Golf ball hail

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23. oriondarkwood
1:48 PM GMT on March 17, 2006
Tell me who didn't see this news blip coming a mile off.

Again another thing to file under "tossing money at a problem doesn't make it go away"


http://apnews.myway.com/article/20060316/D8GCUN3O3.html
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
22. ForecasterColby
12:30 PM GMT on March 17, 2006
I don't really see what the magnetic poles would have to do with anything, but it's probably notable that there are plenty of ions in hurricanes. I suppose it's possible.

Inyo, I hope he's right :)

Snowfire is correct, the Fujita Scale is based off of damage standards, so it doesn't get an F-number unless it hits something.
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21. Inyo
8:05 AM GMT on March 17, 2006
if a link is ever found between the magnetic pole and hurricanes, i will personally buy you a 12 pack of beer, and then roll in a patch of slushy snow without a jacket and take pictures of it to post on this site
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
19. Skyepony (Mod)
4:55 AM GMT on March 17, 2006
By happenstance I met a Geologist yesterday while out in town, 25 years in the field. After chatting platetonics & volcanoes, I had to ask about the Chandler's wobble & the dude that plots it daily (govt plots every 2 weeks) & has claimed a major recent anomoly, a sudden change in what usually has been for the past 100 years or more a fairly regular, fairly predictable wobble track.

She said, "oh you mean Michael Mandeville" & continued to tell me he was lajit in his plottings. (I had attempted to verify his work, but the govt wants to know who you are, why ya wanna see the wobble, more than 100 years of raw data to plot, no thanks) She informed me that Wikipedia & some scientists didn't think it stopped recently since it still vibrated even though it didn't move on an X or Y axis direction, like we had always seen since records.

Her thoughts were it's smaller than a blink in time & only watching it for a little more than a century even though it's different then what we've seen it do & when other smaller anomilys have occurred on & around peak 'cane years~ No real conclusions could be made.

But the magnetic north pole wandered out of Canada

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18. Skyepony (Mod)
4:02 AM GMT on March 17, 2006
Well there's one verifying Emanuel's work. I checked out Huntington's Abstract (the guy that disagrees), it was released yesterday. Can't see the actual paper though~ $30...Abstract was somewhat buried so I'll post it.

Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis ARTICLE
Pages 83-95
Thomas G. Huntington
Abstract | Full Text + Links | PDF (189 K)

One of the more important questions in hydrology is: if the climate warms in the future, will there be an intensification of the water cycle and, if so, the nature of that intensification? There is considerable interest in this question because an intensification of the water cycle may lead to changes in water-resource availability, an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, floods, and droughts, and an amplification of warming through the water vapor feedback. Empirical evidence for ongoing intensification of the water cycle would provide additional support for the theoretical framework that links intensification with warming. This paper briefly reviews the current state of science regarding historical trends in hydrologic variables, including precipitation, runoff, tropospheric water vapor, soil moisture, glacier mass balance, evaporation, evapotranspiration, and growing season length. Data are often incomplete in spatial and temporal domains and regional analyses are variable and sometimes contradictory; however, the weight of evidence indicates an ongoing intensification of the water cycle. In contrast to these trends, the empirical evidence to date does not consistently support an increase in the frequency or intensity of tropical storms and floods.


I agree about the frequency thing, atleast worldwide & counting TS. Floods seem more of a percipitation issue to me, perhaps to be studied seperately.
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17. tejdog1
3:25 AM GMT on March 17, 2006
Wow, what a shock, LOL.
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16. atmosweather
1:17 AM GMT on March 17, 2006
Would never have guessed it...
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15. arcturus
1:09 AM GMT on March 17, 2006
Warmer seas creating stronger hurricanes?

Link

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14. globalize
12:01 AM GMT on March 17, 2006
Snowfire..very informative. Makes working with Fujita measuring sort of meaningless in that regard. Let's see..sort of like the tree which falls in the forest with nobody there, does it make a sound? If a tornado whirls on the ground with nothing to destroy, is it making wind? Fujita says no.
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13. Snowfire
11:34 PM GMT on March 16, 2006
As I thought I understood it, Fujita's F-scale is first and foremost a damage scale rather than a wind-speed scale, and that the associated wind-speed ranges for each level are somewhat speculative. Thus, a funnel with a Doppler measurement of 260+ mph which happens to strike no manmade structure is logged as F0. I have heard claims recently that what is considered F5 damage can occur in winds as low as 200 mph, so there seems to be some uncertainty among the engineers about this. Yet, many of you out there seem to be using the scale as if it were a wind-speed scale. I find this confusing.
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12. Skyepony (Mod)
9:00 PM GMT on March 16, 2006
I live near Port Canaveral... I wouldn't say they'd put ya in harms way, but i've heard of many barf bag cruises... double check those wave heights a little closer to cruise time.
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11. Skyepony (Mod)
8:50 PM GMT on March 16, 2006
It just keeps raining in the Hawaiian islands.

HONOLULU, March 14 (UPI) -- A dam burst on the North Shore of the Hawaiian island of Kauai Tuesday, killing at least one person and inundating several houses.

At least two houses were swept away, KHON-Channel 2 reported, and several people appeared to have been carried off by the water.

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10. louastu
8:48 PM GMT on March 16, 2006
irecthh,

I am sure that the captain of the ship will be getting weather reports during your trip, and would not do anything to place his ship or passengers in harms way. My suggestion to you is have a good time.
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9. Skyepony (Mod)
8:46 PM GMT on March 16, 2006
Texas/Oklahoma fire article
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8. Inyo
8:20 PM GMT on March 16, 2006
irec, the chance of a tropical disturbance large enough to disturb a cruise at that time is pretty tiny... sure, anything is possible, especially this year, but I certainly wouldnt lose any sleep over that.
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7. atmosweather
7:08 PM GMT on March 16, 2006
Hey irecthh,

This page will help you: Atlantic Analysis

It has wave graphics, forecasts, sea states, surface analysis and more which should be of use :)
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6. Aniah
6:20 PM GMT on March 16, 2006
I'm confused---the damage report for this year's F4 is related to Fujita's findings in the Palm Sunday outbreak---how? The satellite tornadoes formed from the same cell?
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5. irecthh
6:17 PM GMT on March 16, 2006
ok ....if I am taking a cruise to Bahamas 3/24-3/27 out of Port Canaveral... Will I be able to check tropical weather on the ocean in advance that may be a problem on the trip? I would like to make sure there is nothing out there ahead of time..This is my first cruise and I am a bit nervous. Can I check the sea action...wave levels, chance of storms..etc...?
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4. CableMonkey
4:10 PM GMT on March 16, 2006
A poor translation via Altavista's Babelfish:
The detailed analysis
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3. raft
3:22 PM GMT on March 16, 2006
I don't know if this is just coincidence or not, i am not even an amateur metheorologist.
Just wanted to say that, as happened after the February 24th South Atlantic disturbance, the weather in Buenos Aires has just turned really ugly as it's going to be worse.
Here's the alert from the national meteorological center:
(SPANISH)
AVISO ALERTA METEOROLOGICO 1 (08:30 HOA)

Zona de cobertura: SUR Y CENTRO DE SANTA FE. RIO DE LA PLATA. NORTE, CENTRO Y SUDESTE DE CORDOBA. NORTE Y CENTRO DE BUENOS AIRES. CAPITAL FEDERAL. ENTRE RIOS.
Fenmeno: POR LLUVIAS Y TORMENTAS INTENSAS.
Situacin:
UN FRENTE FRIO UBICADO ACTUALMENTE SOBRE EL SUR DE SAN LUIS, NORTE DE LA PAMPA Y EXTREMO SUR DE LA PROVINCIA DE BUENOS AIRES AVANZA HACIA LA ZONA DE COBERTURA. ELLO GENERA AREAS DE LLUVIAS Y TORMENTA DE VARIADA INTENSIDAD SOBRE EL CENTRO Y NORTE DE LA PROVINCIA DE BUENOS AIRES, Y EL RIO DE LA PLATA.
SE PREVE QUE EN LAS PROXIMAS HORAS EL RESTO DE LA ZONA DE COBERTURA SEA AFECTADA POR LLUVIAS Y TORMENTAS, ALGUNAS LOCALMENTE FUERTES, ACOMPAADAS CON ABUNDANTE CAIDA DE AGUA Y RAFAGAS INTENSAS DE VIENTO.

LAS CONDICIONES TENDERAN A MEJORAR SOBRE EL CENTRO Y NORTE DE LA PCIA DE BUENOS AIRES, CENTRO Y SUR DE CORDOBA Y EL SUR DE SANTA FE, ENTRE ESTA TARDE Y ESTA NOCHE.
EN EL RESTO DE LA ZONA DE COBERTURA SE ESTIMA QUE TENDERA A MEJORAR DURANTE LA MADRUGADA DEL VIERNES.

http://www.meteofa.mil.ar/?mod=pron&id=3&codprov=2&variable=ALERTA
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2. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
2:56 PM GMT on March 16, 2006
Monroe. ok?
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1. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
2:55 PM GMT on March 16, 2006
1st

wow thats big hail
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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