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Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog

Deadly Worldwide Coral Bleaching Episode Underway--Earth's 3rd on Record

By: Bob Henson , 12:47 PM GMT on October 09, 2015

Earth is entering its third worldwide coral bleaching event of the last 20 years--a disturbing example of how a warming planet can harm vital ecosystems--NOAA announced on Thursday. NOAA also released an eight-month outlook that projects even more bleaching to come in 2016. The only other global-scale bleachings in the modern era of observations happened in 1998 and 2010. Global bleaching is defined as an event that causes bleaching in each of the planet’s major coral-reef areas. "We may be looking at losing somewhere in the range of 10 to 20 percent of the coral reefs this year," NOAA coral reef watch coordinator Mark Eakin said, in an interview with Associated Press. Florida started getting hit in August. The middle Florida Keys aren't too bad, but in southeast Florida, bleaching has combined with disease to kill corals, Eakin said. It has also hit Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic and is about to hit Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, he said, adding, "you kill coral, you destroy reefs, you don't have a place for the fish to live."

The current global bleaching is the culmination of regional problems that began in mid-2014, when very warm conditions emerged in several parts of the tropics. Hawaii is one of those areas: as Jeff Masters reported in July, Hawaii experienced its worst bleaching on record in 2014 when record-warm ocean temperatures caused 50 - 70% of the corals sampled in Northeast Oahu's Kāneʻohe Bay to bleach. Another hard-hit area was the coral-rich Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, which extends hundred of miles northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. “Last year’s bleaching at Lisianski Atoll was the worst our scientists have seen,” said Randy Kosaki, NOAA’s deputy superintendent for the monument. “Almost one and a half square miles of reef bleached last year and are now completely dead.” This year, the same warm waters that have fed record numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes have laid the foundation for additional bleaching in and near Hawaii. "Hawaii is getting hit with the worst coral bleaching they have ever seen, right now," Eakin said. "It's severe. It's extensive. And it's on all the islands." In one part of northwestern Hawaii, "the reef just completely bleached and all of the coral is dead and covered with scuzzy algae."


Figure 1. NOAA's four-month bleaching outlook (top) shows a threat of bleaching continuing in the Caribbean, Hawaii and Kiribati, and potentially expanding into the Republic of the Marshall Islands. An extended bleaching outlook (bottom) showing the threat of bleaching expected in Kiribati, Galapagos Islands, the South Pacific, especially east of the dateline. The bleaching may affect Polynesia and most coral reef regions in the Indian Ocean by May 2016. Corals experiencing "Alert Level 2" conditions (dark red colors) can expect widespread mortality due to severe bleaching. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 2. Healthy corals play host to microscopic algae (zooxanethellae) that live in their tissues (panel 1). The coral reef helps protect the algae and provides the plants with carbon dioxide and key nutrients. At the same time, the algae serve as food for the coral and are the source of coral reefs’ often-spectacular colors. During stressful conditions (panel 2), algae leave the coral tissue. If the stress continues for weeks to months, the food-deprived corals experience bleaching: they lose their color and become more susceptible to disease or death (panel 3). Image credit: NOAA.


El Niño isn’t helping
Rising global temperatures are increasing the likelihood of bleaching, but it is often El Niño that pulls the trigger for the most widespread events. A strong El Niño can suppress upwelling and raise sea-surface temperatures across much of the central and eastern tropical Pacific and other low-latitude areas. Because the algae embedded in coral depend on photosynthesis to survive, coral reefs are limited to the uppermost reaches of the ocean, where sunlight can filter through. When the sea surface temperature is 1°C warmer than the highest monthly mean temperature corals usually experience, coral polyps will expel the symbiotic algae that live in their tissues, exposing the white skeleton underneath and resulting in a "bleached" appearance. Death can result if the stress is high and long-lived--for instance, if unusually warm ocean temperatures persist for months.


Figure 3. Divers laid out transect lines to guide surveys that took place in the coral reef habitats of American Samoa and the Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument from January to May 2015. Image credit: NOAA.


We may see major areas of bleaching in 2016 well beyond the period covered in the latest NOAA announcement. It is looking increasingly possible that a significant La Niña event will occur later in 2016 in the wake of the current El Niño event (see below). A recent study led by Joanie Klepyas (National Center for Atmospheric Research) examined heat stress in the Coral Triangle of the tropical Northwest Pacific. This is one of the world’s most expansive regions of coral reefs with nearly 600 varieties of coral and more than 2000 species of reef fish. Thanks to El Niño, much of the Coral Triangle is now experiencing sea-surface temperatures a bit below average, but the SSTs could rise quickly if El Niño segues into a moderate to strong La Niña. In 1998, this sequence of events led to the region’s worst bleaching event on record.

“I'm very concerned about the probability of intense bleaching in the Coral Triangle into 2016. NOAA's projections look a lot like what happened in the 1997-98 El Niño,” Kleypas told me in an email. “It is quite possible that the Coral Triangle region will experience warming later into 2016, even into the fall.”

When bleaching occurs year after year
Coral reef experts have warned that multi-year bleaching events could become increasingly common as our climate continues to warm in the 21st century. The possibility of two or more consecutive years of bleaching in Hawaii may be a harbinger of this future. Bleaching occurred from 2010 to 2013 in the Arabian/Persian Gulf, following widespread coral disease unrelated to bleaching in 2009. This was the first time four consecutive years of mass mortality have been observed in any coral reef on Earth. In a study published this spring, Bernhard Riegl and Sam Purkis (National Coral Reef Institute) took a close look at this four-year disaster and found what they call a “degradation cascade.” About two-thirds of the coral cover in the area studied was lost during the four-year event. Disease outbreaks often followed bleaching, and the corals that survived tended to shrink. “Certain coral species are more vulnerable to warming and disease than others, and as conditions degrade, one can expect to see big shifts in the coral communities,” noted Kleypas.

Disease fostered by warmer temperatures is a major threat to coral reefs in its own right, as explored in a 2015 study led by Jeffrey Maynard (Cornell University). “There is great spatial variation in the projected timing of the disease-favoring conditions, which is in keeping with much new research highlighting that the impacts of climate change will not be spatially uniform,” said Maynard and colleagues in the paper.

NOAA’s El Niño report for October
The well-publicized El Niño event of late 2015 continues to unfold pretty much as expected, according to the latest NOAA monthly diagnostic discussion. The latest probabilistic forecast issued by NOAA in conjunction with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society shows a greater than 95% chance of El Niño conditions persisting through the period Dec-Feb 2015-16, with a greater than 70% chance through March-May 2016. By the end of the period (May-July 2016), neutral conditions are the most likely outcome (just over 50%), although the odds of La Niña are beginning to rise quickly by that point. Major El Niño events are often but not always followed by a significant La Niña during the subsequent northern fall and winter.


Figure 4. Maximum temperatures for the week ending on October 6, 2015, soared above 36°C (96.8°F) across roughly half of Australia, with the heat especially intense for this time of year across southern parts of the continent. Image credit: Australia Bureau of Meteorology.

We can expect an increasing onslaught of El Niño signs and symptoms to emerge in the coming months. Across parts of Australia, vicious summer heat has arrived prematurely. Dozens of stations across southern Australia notched records over the last few days for their hottest day so early in the warm season. On October 5, the nation’s capital, Canberra, hit 31.8°C (89.2°F), the city’s earliest 30°C reading on record. Melbourne scored its earliest 35°C day ever recorded when it hit 35.8°C (96.4°F) on October 6. This hot spell follows the third-driest September in 106 years of Australian record-keeping. Extreme heat is a common byproduct of El Niño in the populous southeast part of Australia, as noted by the Bureau of Meteorology in a special statement on the October heat wave.

On a quirkier note, tuna crabs (pleuroncodes planipes) were reported on the beaches of Monterey Bay this week, far from their usual domain around Baja California. Their last sighting in Monterey was during the super-strong El Niño of 1982-83.

Have a great weekend, everyone! We'll be back with a new post on Monday at the latest.

Bob Henson

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826. vis0
9:33 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
could not edit previous cmmnt as to a WxU member i highly respect (sit down sar2401, i meant Hydrus...this time) so here it is::

i (vis0)could be 99.9% wrong but...

my cmmnt at my zilly blog OF COURSE
will read as science fiction (SciFic) but its my explanation from my
1970s notes on the science i call Galacsics from the 1970s and remember
respected military pilots have been lost at sea in this area.
 (other
similar areas i state exist throughout the worlds ocean (on what i call
complex planets), but the next similar area should be between Tasmania
&  Marianna trench.
 Please TRY to read my zilly blog's (which includes serious info) pg3 cmmnt#150 or 151 or 152 .oops #145..cannot load pgs. properly today so not sure which cmmnt it was )

so i could be 99.9% wrong or some blend of scenarios in between my way-out theory (for 2015) and a more conventional explanation, BUT we first have to exhaust KNOWN possibilities so we can learn from any errors or yet unexplainable natural interferences to electromagnetic driven devices...
Member Since: December 15, 2006 Posts: 265 Comments: 3086
825. vis0
7:41 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 770. hydrus:

Update today about the El Faro...

Doomed cargo ship sailed FULL SPEED into the path of Hurricane Joaquin, tracking data reveals... as former crew members describe the vessel as a leaky 'rust bucket'.....Link

The tracking data, which was released on Thursday evening by Thomson Reuters Eikon, shows the ship did not follow its normal course.
The sinking has been called the worst cargo shipping disaster involving a U.S.-flagged vessel in more than 30 years.
El Faro began deviating from its typical route between Jacksonville, Florida, and San Juan, Puerto Rico, early on the morning of September 30, around 10 hours after it left Jacksonville.
By that evening, Reuters reports, the ship was trapped between the track of the storm, which had shifted further southwest during the day, and the Bahamas directly to her west. Throughout the day, the ship was sailing near full speed.
Klaus Luhta of the International Organization of Masters, Mates, and Pilots told Reuters: 'I don't know what he (the captain) was thinking. I can't even speculate. He headed right into the track.'
The data raises questions about the ship owner's assertion that the vessel's captain had chosen a 'sound plan' to pass around Joaquin 'with a margin of comfort' but was then thwarted by engineering problems.
Ship captains who reviewed the data said that on the morning of September 30, still north of the Bahamas and hundreds of miles from the storm, Davidson still had three good options: slow down to assess the weather; turn around; or change course, heading west and hugging the Florida coast.
He would have had access to weather forecasts every few hours from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) giving the likely speed, strength and direction of the storm. 
----could not edit this cmmnt so its posted as #826 below----
Member Since: December 15, 2006 Posts: 265 Comments: 3086
824. Jedkins01
6:01 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 10108
823. oldmickey
5:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 818. Gearsts:


I wonder how the proposed disintegration of this El Nino compares to the actual ending of the 1997-98 one?
Member Since: April 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
822. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:22 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
821. Sfloridacat5
5:22 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 819. washingtonian115:

That has been the pattern for two years now.Cold out east and warm out west...


The kids will probably get to use their ice skates again this year along the mid Atlantic.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12634
820. FunnelVortex
5:20 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 819. washingtonian115:

That has been the pattern for two years now.Cold out east and warm out west...


But it looks like this time it will only be temporary.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 4079
819. washingtonian115
5:15 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 803. Drakoen:

Big cool down on tap for early next week according to the GFS:


That has been the pattern for two years now.Cold out east and warm out west...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 21072
818. Gearsts
5:14 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4961
817. FunnelVortex
5:14 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Currently our weather here in central wisconsin is increasing clouds with some spotty showers with winds sustained 15-20 MPH with winds gusting to 30-40MPH. And the gusts and winds are expected to increase until around 5PM.

It looks like we are getting our first fall-winter transition storm, kind of like the ones you see in November and December. Makes me curious on what we will see this winter.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 4079
816. stormpetrol
5:14 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8647
815. Gearsts
5:08 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 771. LargoFl:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4961
814. hydrus
5:07 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 813. BahaHurican:

The map also shows an alternative track taken last month .... wonder if that deviation influenced his choice this time... sad story all around...
had they taken the course near Northern Cuba, El Faro would likely still be sailing.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 27265
813. BahaHurican
5:03 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 812. hydrus:

Indeed. couple people here said that I was being insensitive to toward the captain and the family, that was not my intention to smear someone when they are no longer with us to defend themselves. I have known many captains and crew members, seen many ships, and as a merchant marine , have been in storms myself. Whether it was his or the companies decision to do what he did, we may never know. The bottom line is when I saw his course and timing with regard to the hurricane, and where his destination was located, I realized something terribly wrong.
The map also shows an alternative track taken last month .... wonder if that deviation influenced his choice this time... sad story all around...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 24982
812. hydrus
4:55 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 806. BahaHurican:

After looking at that time line, I do have to wonder.... seems to me that by 5 p.M. it was obvious that the track of a major storm was directly crossing the ship's proposed path....
Indeed. couple people here said that I was being insensitive to toward the captain and the family, that was not my intention to smear someone when they are no longer with us to defend themselves. I have known many captains and crew members, seen many ships, and as a merchant marine , have been in storms myself. Whether it was his or the companies decision to do what he did, we may never know. The bottom line is when I saw his course and timing with regard to the hurricane, and where his destination was located, I realized something terribly wrong.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 27265
811. George1938
4:49 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
The 6z and 18z of the NAVGEM only go out 144hrs, it's the 00z and 12z that go out 180hrs :)

Quoting 782. sar2401:

There's always the NAVGEM, or some other model, that will show something scary for Florida, no matter how improbable it is. There seems to be something wrong with 06z run of the NAVGEM since it's been stuck at 144 hours for the past three hours or so.

We should have a new blog right after my post....
Member Since: August 18, 2014 Posts: 24 Comments: 54
810. PedleyCA
4:47 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 805. TimSoCal:



It's actually the same ULL that brought us rain about a week ago, then caused problems in TX/NM before retrograding back to the west.


OK. thanks I remember them saying something about that. Wasn't sure if it was this one. Thanks again...
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
809. oldnewmex
4:45 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 773. ColoradoBob1:

Expanding the search for oil is necessary to pay for the damage caused by climate change, the Governor of Alaska has told the BBC.

The state is suffering significant climate impacts from rising seas forcing the relocation of remote villages.

Governor Bill Walker says that coping with these changes is hugely expensive.

He wants to "urgently" drill in the protected lands of the Arctic National Wilderness Refuge to fund them.

Link

I had to check again to make sure this wasn't an article from The Onion. Amazing.
Member Since: January 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 342
808. oldmickey
4:44 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 739. ChillinInTheKeys:



Too much information!
Dusting off the cookies that fell on the floor and placing them back onto the counter properly is always a good idea.
Member Since: April 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
807. Naga5000
4:44 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 795. Jedkins01:



Yeah as I was trying to explain to Scott a couple weeks back, El Nino usually doesn't impact October rainfall, and here we are high and dry as expected. October so far thankfully has actually cooled off notably. October is definitely not reliably much cooler than September, so it's nice to enjoy the years that it does get noticeably cooler and drier.


Most definitely. I'll take some mid 80s abd a few upper 60s at night. So far Orlando has been quite nice compared to a few weeks earlier.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 5889
806. BahaHurican
4:36 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 797. hydrus:

This Captain did not loose power until he was very close to the eye.
After looking at that time line, I do have to wonder.... seems to me that by 5 p.M. it was obvious that the track of a major storm was directly crossing the ship's proposed path....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 24982
805. TimSoCal
4:36 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 801. PedleyCA:


Is this remnants of TS Marty???


It's actually the same ULL that brought us rain about a week ago, then caused problems in TX/NM before retrograding back to the west.
Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1228
804. Sfloridacat5
4:25 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 803. Drakoen:

Big cool down on tap for early next week according to the GFS:




That looks very familiar.
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803. Drakoen
4:24 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Big cool down on tap for early next week according to the GFS:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32540
802. ricderr
4:19 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 800. NMPhotog:

Summer has stretched into October here in northern NM. We are still in shorts when usually we are in coats. And with none of the much hoped for El Nino rain yet.


We should finally see the impacts of el nino as its affect during the summer months is minimal. October through december though during el nino we average wetter than normal...our temps usually though are near normal....and with the exception of last week here in el paso we've been above average and yes...i'm in shorts today also
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 688 Comments: 23940
801. PedleyCA
4:17 PM GMT on October 12, 2015

Is this remnants of TS Marty???
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7732
800. NMPhotog
4:11 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Summer has stretched into October here in northern NM. We are still in shorts when usually we are in coats. And with none of the much hoped for El Nino rain yet.
Member Since: May 9, 2015 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
799. ricderr
4:10 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 789. ChiThom:


It doesn't make sense to me either. I'm a home builder for 40 years. But I don't live in Florida, so I suppose it's possible.
The weather here is very mild and warm. It's 70° here right now.


it's back to above average temps this week...last week was cooler...but our area was hit with three major hailstorms....i think we'd rather have to deal with the warm temps than that...LOL
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 688 Comments: 23940
798. ElConando
4:08 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 795. Jedkins01:



Yeah as I was trying to explain to Scott a couple weeks back, El Nino usually doesn't impact October rainfall, and here we are high and dry as expected. October so far thankfully has actually cooled off notably. October is definitely not reliably much cooler than September, so it's nice to enjoy the years that it does get noticeably cooler and drier.


For Tallahassee, yes, here, not so much. The lows did dip into the lower 70's though. The cold fronts tend to peter out around West Palm beach till December.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
797. hydrus
4:02 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 792. hydrus:

THE DOOMED PATH OF THE EL FARO CARGO SHIP
September 30
6.16am: Ten hours after heading out of Jacksonville, Florida, the ship begins to deviate from its usual straight-line route to San Juan, Puerto Rico. Data from the ship's tracker shows it is instead sailing nearer to the Bahamas and is on course to meet the storm's path.
5pm: The ship sails past the 'Hole in the Wall' - a gap in the Bahamas used by seafarers for centuries to travel through the islands toward Cuba.
Experts have claimed that using this route would have lengthened the ship's voyage and consumed more fuel - both possible factors in the captain's decision not to take it.
9pm: Data shows the ship is sailing at 20 knots (23mph) - close to its full speed - around 200 miles northwest of the storm.
October 1
2:09am: El Faro is only 50 miles from the eye of Joaquin. At this point the ship is still moving at nearly 17 knots (19.5mph), according to the tracking data.
3.56am: Facing fierce winds and high seas, the ship has made little progress.
In its last logged location, the ship is less than 50 miles from the eye of the storm and has slowed down to 10.7 knots (12mph).



This Captain did not loose power until he was very close to the eye.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 27265
796. Jedkins01
4:02 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 744. tampabaymatt:





It's funny, growing up in southeast AZ, I still follow the area from time to time. I've been noticing the WPC way overdoes rainfall forecasts in these desert regions. Average yearly rain is about 8 inches down there. The WPC has been doing 1 week forecasts frequently of 2-3 inches widespread since the summer for the region. If their forecast was anywhere near accurate for that region, southeast AZ should be dealing with all time record breaking rain totals for the year like never seen before for the year along with epic floods.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 10108
795. Jedkins01
3:54 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 793. tampabaymatt:



Yeah, I'm trying to enjoy this mild, drier pattern while it lasts, before the El Nino rain events kick in.


Yeah as I was trying to explain to Scott a couple weeks back, El Nino usually doesn't impact October rainfall, and here we are high and dry as expected. October so far thankfully has actually cooled off notably. October is definitely not reliably much cooler than September, so it's nice to enjoy the years that it does get noticeably cooler and drier.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 10108
794. Jedkins01
3:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 757. LargoFl:

Navy model is bullish on making this a hurricane,6Z run still not completed yet.......


But it's still the the NAVGEM. If I had a vacation scheduled for an area and the NAVGEM had a hurricane making landfall without support from the better models, I wouldn't even think twice about continuing the vacation plans without considering a cancel.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 10108
793. tampabaymatt
3:49 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 791. Jedkins01:



Yeah definitely awesome weather, this front brought cooler air than was forecast here. The forecast high for us yesterday was 79 but we hit only 75, and the forecast low was 58 and we hit 53 this morning. It was pretty chilly early.

Most of the weak we'll be in the upper 70's to low 80's for highs and lows in the upper 50's, it's going to be nice.


Yeah, I'm trying to enjoy this mild, drier pattern while it lasts, before the El Nino rain events kick in.
Member Since: September 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 4801
792. hydrus
3:48 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 27265
791. Jedkins01
3:47 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 769. tampabaymatt:



Beautiful fall-like day here in C FL.


Yeah definitely awesome weather, this front brought cooler air than was forecast here. The forecast high for us yesterday was 79 but we hit only 75, and the forecast low was 58 and we hit 53 this morning. It was pretty chilly early.

Most of the weak we'll be in the upper 70's to low 80's for highs and lows in the upper 50's, it's going to be nice.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 10108
790. tampabaymatt
3:44 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 788. Sfloridacat5:

My friend has an air conditioned three car garage. I can only imagine the extra cost to do that. But boy is it nice having an air conditioned garage when you want to work in the garage here in S.W. Florida.

I'm dripping wet with sweat after about 5 minutes in my garage.


The garage is part of the central A/C or do they use a window/wall unit? There are some reasonably priced A/C units made for garage spaces that are pretty effective. Personally, other than the fact that the garage door itself would allow a lot of warm air in, I wish garages were part of the central A/C system when houses are built. It would make storage a lot more feasible.
Member Since: September 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 4801
789. ChiThom
3:43 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 786. ricderr:



ok....thanks for that info.....it doesn't make sense to me....but that doesn't mean it's wrong....what about your cooling bill though...i know personally know that when i added ridgevent to our home two summer ago...that it dropped my summer electrical bill by a third.....is there still an energy savings with a closed system?

It doesn't make sense to me either. I'm a home builder for 40 years. But I don't live in Florida, so I suppose it's possible.
The weather here is very mild and warm. It's 70° here right now.
Member Since: May 4, 2015 Posts: 4 Comments: 157
788. Sfloridacat5
3:39 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
My friend has an air conditioned three car garage. I can only imagine the extra cost to do that. But boy is it nice having an air conditioned garage when you want to work in the garage here in S.W. Florida.

I'm dripping wet with sweat after about 5 minutes in my garage.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12634
787. SoFLRoofguy
3:30 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 785. tampabaymatt:



I'm not a roofer, but that sounds incredibly inefficient energy-wise. Why would I want to let my air conditioned air to leak into my attic that is probably close to 100 degrees? If the attic is vented properly, you won't have to worry about condensation or mold.

The mechanical trades came up with it in FL due to the amount of litigation they were dealing with regarding mold...Many A/C lines leak and create condensation with warmer attic spaces. Vents (eave/gables/ridge) actually allow moist air into the attic space creating the environment needed for condensation and mold growth. I agree its not the most efficient but the bottom of the sheathing gets insulated. You do semi-condition additional square footage though...
Member Since: July 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
786. ricderr
3:28 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 783. SoFLRoofguy:



The latest school of thought is to create a "non-vented" attic. Close off all gable, eave, and ridge vents & let the attic become "semi-conditioned" due to leaks of conditioned air through the home's finished ceilings. Insulation is moved from the top of the ceiling to the underside of the roof sheathing allowing for the transfer of cooler air. It's widely believed this "semi-conditioned" attic airspace then will not create condensation at vents and trunk lines due to the reduced heat and humidity. Many homes have begun using this configuration.


ok....thanks for that info.....it doesn't make sense to me....but that doesn't mean it's wrong....what about your cooling bill though...i know personally know that when i added ridgevent to our home two summer ago...that it dropped my summer electrical bill by a third.....is there still an energy savings with a closed system?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 688 Comments: 23940
785. tampabaymatt
3:24 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 783. SoFLRoofguy:



The latest school of thought is to create a "non-vented" attic. Close off all gable, eave, and ridge vents & let the attic become "semi-conditioned" due to leaks of conditioned air through the home's finished ceilings. Insulation is moved from the top of the ceiling to the underside of the roof sheathing allowing for the transfer of cooler air. It's widely believed this "semi-conditioned" attic airspace then will not create condensation at vents and trunk lines due to the reduced heat and humidity. Many homes have begun using this configuration.


I'm not a roofer, but that sounds incredibly inefficient energy-wise. Why would I want to let my air conditioned air to leak into my attic that is probably close to 100 degrees? If the attic is vented properly, you won't have to worry about condensation or mold.
Member Since: September 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 4801
784. tampabaymatt
3:22 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 782. sar2401:

There's always the NAVGEM, or some other model, that will show something scary for Florida, no matter how improbable it is. There seems to be something wrong with 06z run of the NAVGEM since it's been stuck at 144 hours for the past three hours or so.

We should have a new blog right after my post....


Especially in October it seems.
Member Since: September 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 4801
783. SoFLRoofguy
3:19 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 774. ricderr:

Hi Ricderr-

I also have roof ridge vents to allow hot air to escape.
At times I leave my garage door open and my attic door open to allow for additional air flow.

ahhh...ridgevent is the best passive airflow option....however...if you have ridgevent...you should close off your gable vents...as rather than allow airflow from your eave vents...you're pulling air through your gable vents....and not cooling the lower portion of your attic space as well.....i used to be a roofer


The latest school of thought is to create a "non-vented" attic. Close off all gable, eave, and ridge vents & let the attic become "semi-conditioned" due to leaks of conditioned air through the home's finished ceilings. Insulation is moved from the top of the ceiling to the underside of the roof sheathing allowing for the transfer of cooler air. It's widely believed this "semi-conditioned" attic airspace then will not create condensation at vents and trunk lines due to the reduced heat and humidity. Many homes have begun using this configuration.
Member Since: July 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
782. sar2401
3:11 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 778. DogtownMex:



But sar, those models do not show a hurricane hitting somewhere along the Gulf Coast that can't be right!
There's always the NAVGEM, or some other model, that will show something scary for Florida, no matter how improbable it is. There seems to be something wrong with 06z run of the NAVGEM since it's been stuck at 144 hours for the past three hours or so.

We should have a new blog right after my post....
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 25720
781. aquak9
3:09 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 766. indianrivguy:



most people toss their cookies when they get dirty...
Five-second rule? Three-minute rule? Awww heck... as long as the dog hasn't chewed on'm too much, they're probably ok.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 198 Comments: 28824
780. islander101010
3:07 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
when the ship flipped over can you imagine the chaos & containers flying around & cat 4 winds. dead right there.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 6243
779. ColoradoBob1
3:04 PM GMT on October 12, 2015

Climate Change around the World

Alexander Mulhern 12 Oct 2015

Climate change is a planetary phenomenon, and it’s effects are many and varied. So we’ve put together this interactive map, showing the tangible effects currently attributed to climate change and the possible future scenarios we may see. Drag your way around the map and click on the points, you’ll find videos, images, facts and links to the original research!

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5614
778. DogtownMex
2:57 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 772. sar2401:

Let's see what the reliable global models show for 180 hours -

GFS



ECMWF



Both show a developing low off the Mexican Pacific coast near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which is where the prevailing winds and pressures would predict a low would develop. Neither one shows a low in the Caribbean or anywhere near Florida.


But sar, those models do not show a hurricane hitting somewhere along the Gulf Coast that can't be right!
Member Since: May 23, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 109
777. ColoradoBob1
2:35 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Massive El Niño is now 'too big to fail,' scientist says

An El Niño that is among the strongest on record is gaining strength in the Pacific Ocean, and climate scientists say California is likely to face a wet winter.

“There’s no longer a possibility that El Niño wimps out at this point. It’s too big to fail,” said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.

“And the winter over North America is definitely not going to be normal,” he said.

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5614
776. Camerooski
2:34 PM GMT on October 12, 2015
Quoting 771. LargoFl:


quite possible...
Member Since: May 14, 2015 Posts: 0 Comments: 955

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