June 2015: Earth's Warmest June on Record

By: Jeff Masters , 4:10 PM GMT on July 20, 2015

June 2015 was Earth's warmest June since global record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Monday. NASA also rated June 2015 as the warmest June on record. June 2015's warmth makes the year-to-date period (January - June) the warmest such period on record, according to both NOAA and NASA. A potent El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific that crossed the threshold into the "strong" category in early July continues to intensify, and strong El Niño events release a large amount of heat to the atmosphere, typically boosting global temperatures by at least 0.1°C. This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, makes it likely that 2015 will be Earth's second consecutive warmest year on record. Four of the six warmest months in recorded history (for departure from average) have occurred this year, according to NOAA:

NOAA's top ten warmest global monthly departures from average
1) 0.90°C, Mar 2015
1) 0.90°C, Feb 2015
3) 0.89°C, Jan 2007
4) 0.88°C, June 2015
5) 0.87°C, Feb 1998
6) 0.86°C, May 2015
7) 0.85°C, Mar 2010
8) 0.84°C, Dec 2014
9) 0.83°C, Nov 2013
9) 0.83°C, Apr 2010


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for the globe for 12-month periods ending in June each year, starting in 1880 and ending in 2015. There is no evidence of a long term slow-down in global warming. Image credit: NOAA.

For the oceans, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average, the highest for June on record, and tied with September 2014 as the highest monthly departure from average for any month. Nine of the ten highest monthly departures from average have occurred since May 2014. Global land temperatures during June 2015 were also the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June 2015 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 3rd warmest in the 37-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The lowest 8 km of the atmosphere heats up dramatically in response to moderate to strong El Niño events, with a time lag of several months--as occurred during the El Niño events of 1998 and 2010. Thus, we should see Earth's lower atmosphere temperature hit record levels late this year and/or early next year.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for June 2015, the warmest June for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth occurred across the western United States, parts of northern South America, several regions in central to western Africa, central Asia around and to the east of the Caspian Sea, and parts of southeastern Asia. Western Greenland and some areas in India and China were cooler than average, and northern Pakistan was much cooler than average. Over the oceans, record warmth was observed across much of the northeastern and equatorial Pacific as well as parts of the equatorial and southern Indian Ocean, various regions of both the North and South Atlantic Ocean, and the Barents Sea to the northeast of Scandinavia. Only part of the North Atlantic between Greenland and the United Kingdom was much cooler than average. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) .

Deadliest weather disaster of June 2015: Pakistan's brutal heat wave
The deadliest weather-related disaster of June 2015 was an intense heat wave in Pakistan that killed approximately 1,242 people. If these numbers are correct, this year's heat wave would beat the 1991 heat wave (523 deaths) as Pakistan's deadliest in recorded history, and would rank as Earth's eighth deadliest heat wave, according to statistics from EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. The terrible heat wave that hit India in May 2015 ranks as Earth's fifth deadliest heat wave:

The 10 Deadliest Heat Waves in World History
1) Europe, 2003: 71,310
2) Russia, 2010: 55,736
3) Europe, 2006: 3,418
4) India, 1998: 2,541
5) India, 2015: 2,500
6) U.S. and Canada, 1936: 1,693
7) U.S., 1980: 1,260
8) Pakistan, 2015: 1,242
9) India, 2003: 1,210
10) India, 2002: 1,030
10) Greece and Turkey, 1987: 1,030


Figure 3. Pakistanis receive ice outside a hospital during heatwave in Karachi on June 24, 2015. A state of emergency was declared in hospitals. Image credit : RIZWAN TABASSUM/AFP/Getty Images.

By the time summer is over, it is possible that a third heat wave may be added to this list: the on-going European heat wave. Excess mortality in France, the U.K., and Italy during the late June to early July portion of Europe's 2015's heat wave was over 1,200 people: 700 in France, at least 447 in the U.K., and 140 in Italy. Hundreds more probably died in surrounding countries, during some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Western Europe. Direct deaths, not excess mortality, are tabulated in the EM-DAT database for heat waves, though, and direct deaths can be a factor of eight less than deaths tabulated by considering excess mortality, as I discussed in more detail in my May 29 post on the heat wave in India. For example, the U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and EM-DAT list the total direct deaths from the U.S. heat wave of 1980 at 1,260, but NCDC estimated that the combined direct and indirect deaths (i.e., excess mortality) due to heat stress was 10,000. Extreme heat capable of causing high excess mortality will affect portions of Southeast Europe late this week, when some of the highest temperatures on record will likely occur.



One billion-dollar weather disaster in June 2015: flooding in China
Thankfully, only one billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth last month, according to the June 2015 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield: flooding in China that caused $2 billion in damage and killed sixteen people. With eight billion-dollar weather disasters occurring during the first half of 2015, Earth is on pace for its lowest number of such disasters since 2004, when sixteen occurred.


Disaster 1. Severe thunderstorms and torrential seasonal Mei-Yu rains rains inundated northern and southern sections of China on June 7 - 11, killing 16 people and doing at least $2 billion in damage. The provincial regions of Hunan, Guizhou, Hubei, and Gansu were the most severely impacted, with more than 20,000 homes damaged. In this picture, we see houses along a river submerged in floodwaters in Kaili in Qiandongnan, southwest China's Guizhou province on June 8, 2015. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.

Arctic sea ice falls to 3rd lowest June extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during June 2015 was the 3rd lowest in the 36-year satellite record, and June snow cover was the 2nd lowest, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). A large area of high pressure that has set up shop north of Alaska is expected to persist for the remainder of July, and is likely to bring sunny skies and a warm flow of air into the Arctic that will lead to rapid ice loss in the coming weeks. Later this month, low pressure is expected to develop over Northeastern Eurasia, which could lead to the establishment of the Arctic Dipole pattern. This pattern of airflow develops in response to high pressure north of Alaska and low pressure over Northeastern Eurasia, and brings large amounts of warm air into the Arctic. The Arctic Dipole pattern occurred in all the summer months of 2007, and helped support the record 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent (that record was beaten in 2012, a year that did not feature an Arctic Dipole pattern.)

Notable global heat and cold marks set for June 2015
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 51.7°C (125.1°F) at Death Valley, California, U.S., June 30
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -30.0°C (-22.0°F) at Summit, Greenland, June 1
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 38.1°C (100.6°F) at Bacabal, Brazil, June 15
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -81.3°C (-114.3°F) at Concordia, Antarctica, June 21

Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in June 2015
Mercedes, Uruguay, min, -8.2°C, June 19
Durazno, Uruguay, min, -6.8°C, June 19
Pukaki Aerodrome, New Zealand, min, -19.8°C, June 23
Omarama, New Zealand, min, -21.0°C,  June 24
Cartagena, Colombia, max. 40.4°C,  June 24
Santa Marta, Colombia, max, 38.6°C, June 24
Arjona, Colombia, max, 40°C, June 24
Urumitia, Colombia, max, 42.0°C, June 27
Riohacha, Colombia, max, 40.0°C, June 29
Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, max., 47.2°C, June 29



New all-time national and territorial heat records set or tied in 2015
As of July 20, 2015, nine nations or territories have tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history thus far in 2015, and one (Israel) has set an all-time cold temperature record. For comparison, only two nations or territories set all-time heat records in 2014, and nine did in 2013. The most all-time national heat records held by any year is nineteen in 2010. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page. Here are the all-time national or territorial heat and cold records set so far in 2015:

Germany set its national heat record on July 5, when the mercury soared to 40.3°C (104.5°F) at the Kitzingen station in Bavaria.
Vietnam tied its national heat record of 42.7°C (108.9°F) at Con Cuong on May 30.
Palau tied its national heat record of 34.4°C (94.0°F) at Koror Airport on May 14.
Venezuela set a new national heat record of 43.6°C (110.5°F) at Coro on April 29. Previous record: 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Machiques, Zulia State in February 1983.
Laos tied its national heat record of 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Thakhek on April 20.
Ghana set a new national heat record of 43.3°C (109.9°F) at Navrongo on April 10. This is the third time this year Ghana has tied or set a new all-time heat record. Previous records: 43.1°C (109.6°F), set the previous day, on April 9, and 43.0°C (109.4°F) on February 12.
Cocos Islands (Australian territory) tied their all-time heat record with 32.8°C (91.0°F) on April 8.
Equatorial Guinea set a new national heat record of 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Bata on March 17. Previous record: 35.3°C (95.5°F) at Malabo in February 1957.
Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.5°C (95.9°F) on January 19 at Futuna Airport.

Israel set a new national cold record of -14.2°C (6.4°F) at Merom Golan on January 10.

Special Mentions:
Antarctica set a new heat record for its mainland of 17.5°C (63.5°F) at Esperanza Base on March 24. Previous record: 17.4°C (63.3°F) at Marambio Base, set the previous day. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has appointed a committee to study this event and determine if this represents an official record for the continent. Note that this is a record for mainland Antarctica, not a territorial or continental record. The all-time maximum record for the continent and territory of Antarctica is 19.8°C (67.6°F) on January 30, 1982, in Signy Island, South Orkney, an island group located about 450 miles northeast of the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, the northernmost portion of mainland Antarctica. Geologically, the South Orkney are on the Antarctic plate, and politically, they are part of Antarctica. This record was improperly listed as a territorial record for Antarctica in last month's global summary.

Switzerland had its highest reliably measured temperature on record in Geneva on July 7, when the mercury hit 103.5°F (39.7°C). The only higher temperature ever measured in the country was a 106.7°F (41.5°C) reading on August 11, 2003 at Grono. As reported at the Swiss news site swissinfo.ch, this old record was achieved "using an old measurement technique of weather huts, which generally recorded temperatures a few degrees higher than modern instruments." Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera agrees that this year's 39.7°C reading in Geneva is the highest reliably measured temperature ever in Switzerland, though the August 11, 2003 temperature at Grono was probably warmer (near 40°C), after correcting for the known problems with the site.

Mr. Herrera originally listed Samoa as tying its national heat record with 36.5°C (97.7°F) on January 20 at Asau, but a subsequent review of the record revealed possible issues with the measurement equipment, so this record is dubious.

Kudos also to Mr. Herrera for supplying the data for the "Notable global heat and cold marks set for June 2015" and "Major stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in June 2015" sections.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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402. LargoFl
6:25 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
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401. LargoFl
6:17 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
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400. LargoFl
6:16 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
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399. LargoFl
6:15 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
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398. LargoFl
6:03 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
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397. LargoFl
5:59 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
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396. Naga5000
5:28 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 395. BSBuzz:



Thank you.

So the temperature differences between "records" are much smaller than the margin of error. I don't see how anyone can claim a global record with very much confidence given that.


Which June would you propose we give it to? It beat the old record by .12C, more than the margin oferror. Besides, error works both ways. This line of thought is silly. Regardless of exact warmest, the top ten warmest months have all occurred since 1998. Want to calculate the odds of that?
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395. BSBuzz
5:15 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 386. Naga5000:



Plus minus .08C or .14F


Thank you.

So the temperature differences between "records" are much smaller than the margin of error. I don't see how anyone can claim a global record with very much confidence given that.
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394. rayduray2013
4:24 PM GMT on July 21, 2015

Quoting 323. Kenfa03:


Ok I admit we are contributing to climate change. Now what? Don't think I can make it without electricity or fuel for vehicle.
Recently in a very windy couple of days the nation of Denmark produced 140% of its electrical needs with wind power. While unusual, this is a harbinger of a better future when electricity can be produced without the use of fossil fuels and their contribution to the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the oceans. As to vehicles, some of the most prestigious awards for automobile design are going to the all-electric Tesla Model S. LINK  and LINK  

If electric cars can be powered by wind, sun, nuclear or hydro, there's no GHG emissions from fossil fuel. So, what you can see here is a future in which humanity can begin the process of reversing the Keeling Curve, i.e. we can begin to lower the GHG we're dumping as waste into our one and only atmosphere. There's a better future. We just need the will to get there.

It is a wicked myth perpetrated by certain vested interests that if we abandon coal and oil as primary fuels that we'll all be freezing in the dark. That's simply a myth. :)
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393. AdamReith
3:27 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 328. Kenfa03:


Solar panels and battery powered vehicles? Is that what you are doing?
The decisions are not simple for individuals.

Take vehicles, for example. My car is in great shape and I don't drive a ton: I'm retired. With reasonable care, it will last the rest of my life. It gets ~24 mpg in city driving. I could cut CO2 emissions from driving by switching to a plug-in electric, but the CO2 I would save driving would never overcome the CO2 emitted in building the new electric car, so there's no point switching--at least from a mitigation point of view.

As to photoelec. panels, I have a couple of problems: a new roof and a cranky Home Owners Assoc. I'm not giving up, though. I want to be able to spin the meter backwards sometimes.
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392. LargoFl
3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
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391. AdamReith
3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 323. Kenfa03:


Ok I admit we are contributing to climate change. Now what? Don't think I can make it without electricity or fuel for vehicle.
Who says you have to?
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390. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
389. cRRKampen
3:04 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 375. Marshalldoc:

As I wrote on June 19th, when you 1st listed the Golan temperature record, Israel has illegally annexed the Golan Heights, an act not recognized internationally. It is more correct to list the Golan as 'Israeli occupied Syria'.

Agree entirely but I do not agree to the suggested measure, because I find the regional cold record far more relevant than the political situation for the subject of this blog. We will have to call it 'a national record for Israel'. It would never be one for Syria anyway.
The situation reflects the arbitrariness of national records anyway, as nation-states break up or even disappear while others new come to exist (e.g. Kosovo, South Sudan). So we'll need a wee bit of salt for any such number.
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388. Climate175
2:59 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Caribbean is being dominated by shear, so nothing going to get going for sure. I bet people are enjoying their Caribbean cruises down there with no worries about a tropical storm or hurricane coming to ruin it.
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387. rmbjoe1954
2:55 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 377. Climate175:

No development expected of any of these pouches, Pouch 09L will get more convection once it leaves Africa, but it's spin and convection will die down thereafter.


If those pouches manage to survive their trek into the GOM or around the Bahamas they could develop; otherwise, they will just spin themselves into oblivion.
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386. Naga5000
2:55 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 380. BSBuzz:

What is the "margin of error" for these global temperature readings?


Plus minus .08C or .14F
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385. AdamReith
2:54 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 366. glennburge:

Good summary; but, why insert "This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide," when it doesn't correlate with model predictions?
Exactly how tight do you demand the correlation to be? Actual climate response has been within the margins of error of CMIP3 and CMIP5. I'm pretty sure most members here are ok with tropical storm track models that do as well.
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384. ricderr
2:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
the navgem is equally unimpressed...........i am though...and will remain in hurricane mode....

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383. Climate175
2:52 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Although, these waves will help clear out the SAL and make a open pathway for a wave that can form without being suffocated by dust. The shear is also forecast to lessen, and with August starting next week, it is time to start watching the West Coast of Africa, no matter what season it is.
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382. ricderr
2:50 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
gfs same for florida...also shows this feature coming off the carolinas...and also does nothing with it......

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381. ricderr
2:48 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
ecmwf again negative for florida...shows the front exiting the carolinas...but does nothing with it......

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380. BSBuzz
2:48 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
What is the "margin of error" for these global temperature readings?
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379. ricderr
2:47 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
so while the CMC does not show anything forming around florida it does show a low exiting the carolinas and becoming active in about 3 and a half days.............


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378. 19N81W
2:45 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
That's gross

Quoting 358. tornadodude:

High pressure strengthening overhead...



(Round Rock, Texas)
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377. Climate175
2:39 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
No development expected of any of these pouches, Pouch 09L will get more convection once it leaves Africa, but it's spin and convection will die down thereafter.
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376. Naga5000
2:25 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 366. glennburge:

Good summary; but, why insert "This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide," when it doesn't correlate with model predictions?


Well because they do. I would double check your sources of information.

CIMP3:


And CIMP5:
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374. Climate175
2:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Development is looking possible early next week somewhere from E GULF to SE US Coastal waters. Stay tuned.-HurricaneTracker App
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373. LargoFl
2:03 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
most models are hinting at 2 spots next week,gulf and southeast coast....................
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372. LargoFl
1:59 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
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371. Neapolitan
1:50 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 349. SCwannabee:

Another Global warming blog...this site used to be interesting and fun to visit for Tropical Weather.
This isn't, strictly speaking, a global warming entry; it's merely a roundup of June weather and climate extremes. In fact, none of this month's entries have been about global warming. Here's the July-to-date breakdown by headline;

Tropical weather: 11
Non-tropical weather: 6
Miscellaneous: 2
Climate change/global warming: 0

So your complaint seems off-target. Are you sure you're commenting in the right forum? ;-)
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370. sporteguy03
1:47 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 360. Camerooski:

I honestly don't know why but I have been praying for a hurricane landfall in SE FLA (Broward County) for the past 3 years… I'm so tired of every storm forecasted to make landfall in SE FLA, but then shoot up north than north-east and hit Bermuda, when are we gonna get our fair share of the hurricanes?

I am sure the residents of Bermuda would enjoy deflecting the hurricanes elsewhere. Next time one is forecasted for Bermuda fly to Bermuda and then get stranded which is no fun and then you will be praying to return to SE FLA.
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369. Climate175
1:40 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
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368. GVIslander
1:39 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 336. MattyU092:



Look into Paul Brown. He invented a nuclear battery that essentially would use the spent nuclear material in rods used in nuclear power plants. A seemingly much better option than storing them in massive caves in Nevada/Utah. Some claim he was being threatened by the government and big fossil interests, and tragically he died in a car crash when he was only 35 or 40ish I can't remember.

Actually, the plan to store spent fuel from our domestic nuclear power plants underground at Yucca Mountain was (at least temporarily) shelved by president Obama. Perhaps fine for some folks in Nevada who oppose Yucca Mountain, but not a good plan for anyone living near a nuclear power plant. For decades (since the Carter Admin), spent fuel from nuclear plants has not been reprocessed, but instead is stored (much of it outside) at the plants where the fuel was used. Personally, I'd rather have it buried 100's of feet underground in the desert of Nevada, than to merely have it stored in a concrete cask behind a chain-link fence or two or three. Anyway, that is our current state of spent nuclear fuel here in the USA.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
367. wunderweatherman123
1:39 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 357. ncstorm:

06z GFS Ensembles..

maybe..




basically by early august, it will be time to start looking to the MDR for a storm or two. shear will be lower (climatology has shown it will as we get closer to the peak) and the MDR isn't as cool as before plus the tropical waves so far have been healthy coming off of Africa and the Saharan Air Layer has been atypically weaker than it usually is this time of year.
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366. glennburge
1:38 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Good summary; but, why insert "This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide," when it doesn't correlate with model predictions?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
365. Neapolitan
1:29 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 360. Camerooski:

I honestly don't know why but I have been praying for a hurricane landfall in SE FLA (Broward County) for the past 3 years…
lach-e-sis-m: (LAK-uh-sizz-um) noun 1 : The desire to be struck by disaster. (etymology: from the Greek fate Lachesis, the apportioner, who decided how much time for life was to be allowed for each person or being.)
It's common on this site. ;-)
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364. Climate175
1:28 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Here is the Gulf system.
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363. rmbjoe1954
1:26 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 360. Camerooski:

I honestly don't know why but I have been praying for a hurricane landfall in SE FLA (Broward County) for the past 3 years… I'm so tired of every storm forecasted to make landfall in SE FLA, but then shoot up north than north-east and hit Bermuda, when are we gonna get our fair share of the hurricanes?


Ask yourself this question.....would you love to be without power, transportation, and work for a 2 to 3 week period, at the least during the hottest time of the year?

Careful what you pray for.
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362. Climate175
1:26 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
CMC forms a potential storm Friday, then forms a low in the Gulf and off the SE coast early next week. All these places have to be watched because these lows will be in favorable conditions.
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361. HurricaneAndre
1:25 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 360. Camerooski:

I honestly don't know why but I have been praying for a hurricane landfall in SE FLA (Broward County) for the past 3 years… I'm so tired of every storm forecasted to make landfall in SE FLA, but then shoot up north than north-east and hit Bermuda, when are we gonna get our fair share of the hurricanes?
Just be patient. That stuff takes time ok.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
360. Camerooski
1:22 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
I honestly don't know why but I have been praying for a hurricane landfall in SE FLA (Broward County) for the past 3 years… I'm so tired of every storm forecasted to make landfall in SE FLA, but then shoot up north than north-east and hit Bermuda, when are we gonna get our fair share of the hurricanes?
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359. weathermanwannabe
1:20 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Looking East, the African wave train continues to prime:

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358. tornadodude
1:18 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
High pressure strengthening overhead...



(Round Rock, Texas)
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357. ncstorm
1:18 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
06z GFS Ensembles..

maybe..



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356. barbamz
1:14 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
At Vatican conference, world mayors urge action on climate change
Source: Reuters - Tue, 21 Jul 2015 11:39 GMT
VATICAN CITY, July 21 (Reuters) - Mayors and governors from major world cities on Tuesday will urge global leaders to take bold action at this year's U.N. climate change summit, saying it may be the last chance to tackle human-induced global warming.
Pope Francis has invited some 65 local and regional leaders to attend a two-day conference on how cities can address what the Vatican calls the "interconnected emergencies" of climate change and human trafficking.
It is the Vatican's latest attempt to influence a United Nations summit in Paris in December aiming for a global deal to combat climate change after past failures.
The pope issued an encyclical in April demanding swift action to save the planet from environmental ruin and urging world leaders to hear "the cry of the earth and the cry of the poor".
Mayors from South America, Africa, the United States, Europe and Asia will later on Tuesday sign a declaration stating that the Paris summit "may be the last effective opportunity to negotiate arrangements that keep human-induced warming below 2 degrees centigrade."
Leaders should come to a "bold agreement that confines global warming to a limit safe for humanity while protecting the poor and the vulnerable...," says the declaration, a copy of which was seen by Reuters.
High-income countries should help finance the cost of climate change mitigation in low-income countries, it says.
In a direct rejection of so-called climate change deniers, the declaration says: "Human-induced climate change is a scientific reality, and its effective control is a moral imperative for humanity." ...

Whole report see link above.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
355. ncstorm
1:10 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
GM all..

00z run..06z looks to be stuck..again on the NCEP site..they always having technical issues...they need some funding in their IT department..

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
354. weathermanwannabe
12:56 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson did some excellent posts recently with regard to the tropical storms threatening parts of Asia and Mr. Henson did an excellent post yesterday on severe weather issues.....................GW is just part of the normal discussion on here (and at some point in time, tropical weather/storms will be impacted by climate change issues).

It's all part of the "big blue marble" concept......................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
353. Webberweather53
12:55 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Quoting 339. Naga5000:



I agree with everything except the last line, the large range of ECS is more an uncertainty in feedbacks from a doubling of CO2 rather than an uncertainty about understanding CO2's role. This is evidenced by the smaller range of TCR (the simple doubling of CO2 without accounting for new equilibrium through feedbacks) which rangesfrom 1.0 - 2.5 C. It's the feedbacks where most of the uncertainty lies.


Yes, ultimately it's the feedbacks that determine the significance of CO2's role in the climate system, there's no getting around that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
352. JohnLonergan
12:51 PM GMT on July 21, 2015
Today, twenty-four UK learned and professional societies express their joint views on the risks of climate change and the opportunities for innovation to address those risks.

The signatories include societies of physical scientists, engineers, medical scientists, social scientists & artists, amongst others. This is the first time such a broad range of professional bodies have issued such a unanimous text.

Climate communiqué

The scientific evidence is now overwhelming that the climate is warming and that human activity is largely responsible for this change through emissions of greenhouse gases.

Governments will meet in Paris in November and December this year to negotiate a legally binding and universal agreement on tackling climate change. Any international policy response to climate change must be rooted in the latest scientific evidence. This indicates that if we are to have a reasonable chance of limiting global warming in this century to 2°C relative to the pre-industrial period, we must transition to a zero-carbon world1 by early in the second half of the century.

To achieve this transition, governments should demonstrate leadership by recognising the risks climate change poses, embracing appropriate policy and technological responses, and seizing the opportunities of low-carbon and climate-resilient growth.

Risks. Climate change poses risks to people and ecosystems by exacerbating existing economic, environmental, geopolitical, health and societal threats, and generating new ones. These risks increase disproportionately as the temperature
increases. Many systems are already at risk from climate change. A rise of 2°C above pre-industrial levels would lead to further increased risk from extreme weather and would place more ecosystems and cultures in significant danger. At or above 4°C, the risks include substantial species extinction, global and regional food insecurity, and fundamental changes to human activities that today are taken for granted.

Responses. Responding to the challenge will require deploying the full breadth of human talent and invention. Creative policy interventions and novel technological solutions need to be fostered and applied. This will require a sustained
commitment to research, development, entrepreneurship, education, public engagement, training and skills.

Opportunities. While the threats posed by climate change are far-reaching, the ways in which we tackle them can be a source of great opportunity. There exists vast potential for innovation, for example in low-carbon technologies.

Capturing this potential quickly and effectively will drive economic progress. There are also significant additional benefits available from climate mitigation and adaptation actions, including food, energy and water security, air quality, health improvements, and safeguarding the services that ecosystems provide.

Actions need to be taken now, by governments, individuals, businesses, local communities and public institutions, if we are to tackle this global challenge, deliver the required cuts in emissions, and take maximum advantage of the available opportunities and additional benefits.

1 Net zero global carbon dioxide emissions.

Signed by:
Academy of Medical Sciences
Academy of Social Sciences
British Academy
British Ecological Society
Challenger Society for Marine Science
Geological Society
Institution of Civil Engineers
Institute of Physics
Institution of Chemical Engineers
Institution of Environmental Sciences
Learned Society of Wales
London Mathematical Society
Royal Astronomical Society
Royal Economic Society
Royal Geographical Society
Royal Meteorological Society
Royal Society
Royal Society of Arts
Royal Society of Chemistry
Royal Society of Edinburgh
Society for General Microbiology
Society of Biology
Wellcome Trust
Zoological Society of London
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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