Earth's 5th Deadliest Heat Wave in Recorded History Kills 1,826 in India

By: Jeff Masters , 12:34 PM GMT on May 29, 2015

The death toll from India's horrid May heat wave has risen to 1,826, making this year's heat wave the second deadliest in India's recorded history--and the fifth deadliest in world history. According to statistics from EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, India's only deadlier heat wave was in 1998, when 2,541 died. With over 400 deaths recorded in just the past day and the heat expected to continue over India for another week, the 1998 death toll could well be exceeded in this year's heat wave. However, death tolls from heat waves are very difficult to estimate, since excess heat is typically not listed as the primary cause of death in cases where the victim has a pre-existing condition such as heart or lung disease. For example, the U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) lists the total direct deaths from the U.S. heat wave of 1980 at 1,260, but estimates that the combined direct and indirect deaths (i.e., excess mortality) due to heat stress was 10,000. Below is the list of top ten deadliest heat waves in world history as compiled by EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, which uses direct deaths for their statistics, and not excess mortality.

The 10 Deadliest Heat Waves in World History
1) Europe, 2003: 71,310
2) Russia, 2010: 55,736
3) Europe, 2006: 3,418
4) India, 1998: 2,541
5) India, 2015: 1,826+
6) U.S. and Canada, 1936: 1,693
7) U.S., 1980: 1,260
8) India, 2003: 1,210
9) India, 2002: 1,030
9) Greece and Turkey, 1987: 1,030

Note that the EM-DAT database may not be entirely reliable; for example, they list no heat deaths in the U.S. for the 1988 heat wave, while the U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) lists 454 direct deaths and 5,000 combined direct and indirect deaths. The 2010 Japanese heat wave, which EM-DAT gives a death toll of 170 for, disagrees with the 1,718 total from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera alleges that the deadliest and most brutal heat wave Chinese history, in Eastern China in the summer 2013, had thousands of deaths which were not reported by the Chinese authorities. The official death toll was merely 40.


Figure 1. A young Indian child pours water on himself as he tries to cool himself off in New Delhi on May 28, 2015. Image credit: MONEY SHARMA/AFP/Getty Images.

It's the heat and the humidity
Temperatures across much of India have been 5°C (9°F) above average this May, with very high humidity. In many of the hardest-hit areas of eastern India, the heat index dropped below 100°F for only four hours each night for several consecutive days this week. This sort of day-after-day heat stress is very hard on vulnerable people, and leads to high mortality. For example, in Channai (Madras) on May 24, the high temperature reached 108°F and the heat index topped out at 123°F, and never dropped below 97°F the entire day. Far more extreme heat index values have been observed in some areas. For example, on May 23 at 14:30,  Bhubneshwar recorded a temperature of of 42.2°C (108°F) with a dew point of 29.3°C (84.7°F), giving an astonishing heat index of 62°C (143.6°F.) According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, a heat index of up to 65°C (149°F) has been measured at some stations in eastern India during the heat wave.


Figure 2. Progress of the monsoon towards India as of May 28, 2015 (green line) has been close to its average pace. If the monsoon follows its usual pace, it will move through the province hardest hit by this year's heat wave, Andhra Prahesh (shaded in yellow), by June 5. This province recorded 1,334 heat deaths as of May 29, 2015. Image credit: India Meteorological Department .

The monsoon is coming
This is the time of year when India's 1.2 billion people look beseechingly southwards, toward the advancing southwest monsoon. The monsoon's arrival brings rains that cool India's scorching May heat, and the monsoon's rains give life, providing 70 - 80% of the year’s total rainfall in just four months. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is forecasting that the arrival of the southwest monsoon at the southern tip of India will occur this weekend, on May 30. This is two days ahead of the average arrival date, June 1. The monsoon should move through the province hardest hit by this year's heat wave, Andhra Prahesh, by June 5. However, IMD is also forecasting a roughly doubled chance of below-average rains during the summer monsoon period, and predicts only 91 percent of the usual rainfall will occur. The problem: the atmospheric circulation patterns brought on by an El Niño event usually cause much reduced monsoon rains. The current borderline weak/moderate El Niño event is forecast to intensify this summer, and this is likely to cause a significant reduction in monsoon rainfall over India. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, more than 4.2 million people died in India between 1900 - 2014 due to droughts from failed monsoon rains, primarily during El Niño years. The five worst Indian monsoons for rainfall deficit:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

Up until the late 1960s, it was common for the failure of the monsoon rains to kill millions of people in India; the 3-year drought that began during the strong El Niño event of 1965 killed at least 1.5 million people. However, since the Green Revolution of the late 1960s--a government initiative to improve food self-sufficiency using new technology and high-yield grains--failure of the monsoon rains has not led to mass famine in India. For example, the fifth worst drought in India's history occurred in 2009, but did not result in serious food shortages--and neither would a similar failure of the monsoon this year. However, a weak monsoon could affect India’s fragile power supply, since the country is heavily dependent on hydropower. In 2012, a weak monsoon forced farmers to use huge amounts of power to pump groundwater to make up for lack of rain. The resulting strain on the power grid helped trigger a blackout that affected 600 million people. Fortunately, many reservoirs in India are above their 10-year average level heading into the summer.

Climate change and India
This year's deadly heat wave in India was made much more probable by the fact that Earth is experiencing its hottest temperatures on record--the past twelve months were the warmest twelve-month period in recorded history, and so was the January - April 2015 period. According to the India Meteorological Department, a warming climate increased heat waves in India by a third between 1961 to 2010. As the planet continues to warm due to human-caused global warming, heat waves will become more frequent and more intense, and heat-related deaths will soar unless we take strong measures to adapt. An April 2015 paper published in Regional Environmental Change, Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality, warned that "heat waves are projected to be more intense, have longer durations and occur at a higher frequency and earlier in the year. Southern India, currently not influenced by heat waves, is expected to be severely affected by the end of the twenty-first century." Perhaps a bigger concern for India with climate change is drought, though. Many climate models show that climate change might increase the average rainfall in India from the monsoon, but when dry years occur, the hotter temperatures accompanying the dry years will drive much more intense droughts capable of causing significant challenges to growing food in India.

Links
The May 27, 2015 post by Eric Holthaus of Slate discusses the India heat wave and climate change.

Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood wrote a nice 3-part series about the challenges India faces due to climate change after he completed a 2009 trip there.

Bob Henson will have a new post on the Texas/Oklahoma flood situation on Friday evening or Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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480. BarometerGirl
3:52 AM GMT on June 01, 2015
Quoting 441. 1344:

Does anyone here like to track tropical cyclones?

Because Andres is at 90 knots. I know it's EPAc, but c'mon, it's still a hurricane.

I follow them. I'm from Louisiana, but have lived in San Diego since 1998. San Diego is so due. It's been over a century since SD was last hit by a hurricane (1858). Last couple of years though have been more active, getting some tropical storm remnants in late summer. We need any rain Mother Nature can muster, just not with lightning.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
479. gezeur123
10:43 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Dear Jeff, I am a fan, following your blogs all the time. But the list above, as you know, is one of comparing apples and pears. Only in a few months can you establish the excess mortality during the current heatwave in India by comparing the figures to the average of lets say the last ten years. It is very well possible that we are talking tens of thousands counting like that as has been done in the 2003 European heatwave.
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478. Jedkins01
8:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 452. Grothar:




Well that would be a colossal disappointment up here in the Tampa Bay area, just breezy hot and dry. Thankfully that's an experimental model and the chances of that outcome are slim, lol.



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477. BahaHurican
8:18 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 457. HurriHistory:


Anyone remember this monster? That was a close call. Whew!
We got hit by this pretty bad in the nw Bahamas. A 110 ft. talk mango tree crushed my dad's car and just missed our house ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
476. BahaHurican
7:57 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 420. Grothar:



You had to be 12 when you first started busting our chops. I remember it well. :)
I'm pretty sure the record will show he was still 12 ...
Quoting 455. wunderkidcayman:



key words
THE BEST FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AT THIS TIME IS TO NOT GIVE THE GFS SOLUTION ALL THAT MUCH WEIGHT

they my not put weight on it now but later they might just do that and start piling on the weights
Even you weren't giving it that much weight last week. I know some of the other models had similar solutions earlier this week, but that was before the rain train got stuck in TX .... still 4 days from potential genesis, yes?
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475. LargoFl
4:07 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
so what im gathering from the nws discussions, that tropical wave coming east will stall oh say under Cuba and develop a LOW, the Low we will be watching for this coming week around Florida..along with all that tropical moisture with it.
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474. sar2401
3:57 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 462. HurriHistory:

Hmmm..... Interesting.
Since 1950-1951 was a weak La Nina there's not much of a connection to what's expected for 2015.
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473. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:56 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 462. HurriHistory:


Hmmm..... Interesting.
Sure was nothing Easy about Easy :P

Good Afternoon All.
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472. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:54 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
471. beell
3:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 469. sunlinepr:



Small but nice....


She looks big enough to me...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
470. wunderkidcayman
3:51 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
all the NOAA's FIM models develop the system just off the coast of Honduras moves it NE-ENE towards Cuba then there is a spread between each one after this point but mainly S Florida or NW Bahamas
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469. sunlinepr
3:49 PM GMT on May 30, 2015


Small but nice....
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468. Grothar
3:45 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 463. GeoffreyWPB:



A "FIM" fatale?


lol. In film noir no less. :)
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467. Patrap
3:42 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 464. K8eCane:

Where is the PlanFlaf Model when you need it


Prolly a lurking somewhere close practicing the "Two-Tone" talk.
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466. Patrap
3:39 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 465. jamesrainier:



It sure wasn't like a normal thunderstorm. It was the calm before the storm with the storm wrapping around Dallas from the north and the west. Maybe the thunder from the lightning on either side of the line was clashing in the inside space and doing interesting things to the sound waves.






Here's a thought.

Global Climate Change Indicators

Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
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465. jamesrainier
3:34 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 453. sar2401:

I suspect there's a bit of adrenaline mixed in there as well but that's just speaking for me. One of the things that happens when you've been constantly vigilant for days at a time is that things do start sounding funny. You may not have noticed that strange thunder during a normal summer thunderstorm.


It sure wasn't like a normal thunderstorm. It was the calm before the storm with the storm wrapping around Dallas from the north and the west. Maybe the thunder from the lightning on either side of the line was clashing in the inside space and doing interesting things to the sound waves.
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464. K8eCane
3:34 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Where is the PlanFlaf Model when you need it
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463. GeoffreyWPB
3:33 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 452. Grothar:




A "FIM" fatale?
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462. HurriHistory
3:32 PM GMT on May 30, 2015

Hmmm..... Interesting.
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461. sar2401
3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 425. Naga5000:


Nah, I'm sticking to GFS operational only, beginning at 296 hours.
I looked all the way out to 348 hours and there's a high in the Gulf. That's not going to encourage much discussion. Probably a good thing though. After the beating Florida is going to take during the upcoming week, it's going to be a while before you get the internet back anyway. :-)
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460. wunderkidcayman
3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 437. ncstorm:

I thought that crystal ball analysis yesterday stated the low by the bahamas was supposed to dissipate yesterday? well its still there






expected to open up to sfc trof and dissipate within 48hrs give or take
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
459. jamesrainier
3:23 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 441. 1344:

Does anyone here like to track tropical cyclones?

Because Andres is at 90 knots. I know it's EPAc, but c'mon, it's still a hurricane.


I really enjoyed as a kid watching my mom track Gulf of Mexico hurricanes via coordinates given on the weather radio and the map grid that came in the Houston Post.

That reminds me of the time my mom was playing back a symphony she'd tape recorded off the radio during the approach of a hurricane, with breaks in the music giving updates on the storm, and my dad kept getting up to look out the window.
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458. Patrap
3:22 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
why you don' t show up and make it all right, yeah, it's allright'


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457. HurriHistory
3:17 PM GMT on May 30, 2015

Anyone remember this monster? That was a close call. Whew!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
456. Patrap
3:16 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 437. ncstorm:

I thought that crystal ball analysis yesterday stated the low by the bahamas was supposed to dissipate yesterday? well its still there






"gee"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
455. wunderkidcayman
3:14 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 433. aquak9:

from 429-

THERE ARE SO MANY POINTS OF FAILURE REGARDING
TC/HYBRID GENESIS WITHIN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION...ESPECIALLY
SO FAR OUT INTO THE SIMULATION...THAT THE BEST FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AT THIS TIME IS TO NOT GIVE THE GFS SOLUTION ALL THAT MUCH WEIGHT.



and I been sayin' for three days, NOT to watch the GFS.


key words
THE BEST FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AT THIS TIME IS TO NOT GIVE THE GFS SOLUTION ALL THAT MUCH WEIGHT

they my not put weight on it now but later they might just do that and start piling on the weights
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
454. Patrap
3:13 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Uh, oh

A Cigar Indian Head

Thats never good.

Quoting 452. Grothar:





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453. sar2401
3:12 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 447. jamesrainier:


For me personally it's generally been "can't go out because of all the rain" rather than adrenaline, with "check to make sure there aren't any tornadoes", so the weird sounding atmosphere is what spooked me.
I suspect there's a bit of adrenaline mixed in there as well but that's just speaking for me. One of the things that happens when you've been constantly vigilant for days at a time is that things do start sounding funny. You may not have noticed that strange thunder during a normal summer thunderstorm.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
452. Grothar
3:12 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
451. Jedkins01
3:11 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 398. Skyepony:

Had another quick downpour last night & a few already this morning. GEOS-5 is showing the B & C storms coming..well not to FL. This first one forms on Tuesday & moves to the north & joins up with another low.



Then this one forms in the same general area Monday after next.



Seems to me that it's much more likely that nothing tropical will develop at all given the model consensus for an upper trough to cutoff in the eastern gulf. Seems to me that there may be some weak, broad low or surface trough that will lift north across the eastern gulf and Florida helping to enhance rainfall with a deep tropical moisture surge beneath the cool air aloft and divergent flow of the trough.

Overall, seems like a typical rainy season event, there should be beneficial rains for most of the state.
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450. Patrap
3:09 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
EP012015 - Hurricane ANDRES

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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449. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:09 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 AM EDT Saturday 30 May 2015




Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:80.6°F
Dewpoint:65.7°F
Humidity:60%
Wind:SW 13 gust 19 mph
Humidex: 92
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448. sar2401
3:08 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 441. 1344:
Does anyone here like to track tropical cyclones?

Because Andres is at 90 knots. I know it's EPAc, but c'mon, it's still a hurricane.
Sun is just starting to come up over Andres now. You can already see the eye. Pretty good looking storm compared to yesterday at this time. Good thing it's not forecast to affect land so far.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
447. jamesrainier
3:05 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 419. sar2401:

The adrenaline of nothing but storm after storm is starting to wear off. Now you have some time to think about what might have happened to you personally. This is when most people start to feel edgy, and that's pretty normal.


For me personally it's generally been "can't go out because of all the rain" rather than adrenaline, with "check to make sure there aren't any tornadoes", so the weird sounding atmosphere is what spooked me.
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446. sar2401
3:05 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 440. Jedkins01:


The NWS here in Ruskin always has great discussions, and I like that someone posted this one considering some are acting so sure that a tropical system will develop.
Too bad the NWS doesn't have some kind of "Discussion of the Month" we can vote for. It would be a good thing to encourage the kind of clear and unequivocal discussion that this forecaster wrote.
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445. WaterWitch11
3:04 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
John Seach @johnseach
Magnitude 7.8 #earthquake 34 km northwest of Doyo seamount, underwater volcano, Izu Islands #Japan.
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444. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:04 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Conditions are favourable for the development of dangerous thunderstorms that may be capable of producing strong wind gusts, large hail and torrential rain.

Fast moving water across a road can sweep a vehicle away. Rapidly rising rivers and creeks can sweep away bridges, culverts, buildings, and people. Large hail can damage property and cause injury. Strong wind gusts can toss loose objects, damage weak buildings, break branches off trees and overturn large vehicles. Intense lightning is likely with any storm that develops. Be prepared for severe weather. Take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches. Stay indoors when a thunderstorm strikes. There isn't a place outside that is safe during a thunderstorm. Stay away from all windows, skylights and doors. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

The Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency Management recommends that you take cover immediately, if threatening weather approaches.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Please monitor local media or Weatheradio. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

For more information:
http://www.ontario.ca/beprepared.
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443. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:02 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
well another great day on the blogs I see
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442. sar2401
3:02 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 433. aquak9:
from 429-

THERE ARE SO MANY POINTS OF FAILURE REGARDING
TC/HYBRID GENESIS WITHIN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION...ESPECIALLY
SO FAR OUT INTO THE SIMULATION...THAT THE BEST FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AT THIS TIME IS TO NOT GIVE THE GFS SOLUTION ALL THAT MUCH WEIGHT.



and I been sayin' for three days, NOT to watch the GFS.
To be fair, it's possible the GFS may turn out to be the one with the right solution. Outliers have turned around to be right and dragged the other models with them. Those are the exceptions, however, and they don't prove the rule. As of right now, the GFS doesn't appear to have the right solution. Given its performance so far, I doubt it will have the right solution this time, but I wouldn't discount it completely.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
441. 1344
3:01 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Does anyone here like to track tropical cyclones?

Because Andres is at 90 knots. I know it's EPAc, but c'mon, it's still a hurricane.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
440. Jedkins01
3:01 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 429. beell:



Best discussion out there right now.


The NWS here in Ruskin always has great discussions, and I like that someone posted this one considering some are acting so sure that a tropical system will develop.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
439. Patrap
3:00 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
The 91° temperature at Eagle smashed that location’s all-time record for May. It was 30.1° hotter than the average daily high temperature in May (59.5°F), and 18.1° warmer than the average high temperature in July, Eagle’s warmest month of the year. So far this month, Eagle has set or tied ten daily high temperature records.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
438. Patrap
2:59 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 146. Xandra:

From NOAA Climate.gov:

Alaska sets new record for earliest day with temperatures in the 90s

It’s been a warm, dry spring for much of interior Alaska. On the afternoon of May 23, a new statewide record was set for the earliest day in the year with a temperature in the 90s. A daytime high of 91°F was noted by a cooperative observer in Eagle, where temperatures have been recorded (with some breaks) since the 1890s.


Temperature in Alaska on the afternoon of May 23, 2015, based on data from NOAA's Real-time Mesoscale Analysis.

This temperature map of Alaska shows the unusual warmth on May 23, 2015, at 2 p.m. local time in Fairbanks. Based on NOAA’s Real-time Mesoscale Analysis data, it shows air temperatures at 2 meters (6.6 feet) above the ground. Temperatures below 45° are shades of blue, and temperatures above 45° are shades of orange and red.

The warmest temperatures are located inland—away from the moderating influence of the ocean—at the foot of mountain ranges and along rivers. Fairbanks, for example, is on the banks of the Tanana River in a low-lying area between the Alaska Range to the south and the White Mountains to the north-northeast.

The 91° temperature at Eagle smashed that location’s all-time record for May. It was 30.1° hotter than the average daily high temperature in May (59.5°F), and 18.1° warmer than the average high temperature in July, Eagle’s warmest month of the year. So far this month, Eagle has set or tied ten daily high temperature records.


Each month's average daytime high temperature (red), average (gray), and overnight low (blue) in Eagle, Alaska, for 1981-2010. On average, the daytime high temperature in May is just shy of 60°F. On May 23, 2015, it was 91°F. Graph by NOAA Climate.gov, based on U.S. Climate Normals data.

Read more >>
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437. ncstorm
2:59 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
I thought that crystal ball analysis yesterday stated the low by the bahamas was supposed to dissipate yesterday? well its still there



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436. K8eCane
2:57 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 428. Patrap:



Nuclear War, Carbon being dug up and re introduced into the biosphere by a Native species, (us)

Thats a long list sista'.







Well when you put it like that, OK
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435. sar2401
2:57 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 427. Naga5000:


Yes, but since we can't get rid of the Chinese food snatching mutt, we have to keep trying training, right? :)
Well, yesterday I was considering a moderate beating. That might work in other cases too. ;-)
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434. Patrap
2:54 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Folks are gonna pick the model frame that best impacts a given area....usually theirs.


It's what some do..


If one follows the GFS frames, one could ride right off a Fla. cliff into da abyss.




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
433. aquak9
2:51 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
from 429-

THERE ARE SO MANY POINTS OF FAILURE REGARDING
TC/HYBRID GENESIS WITHIN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION...ESPECIALLY
SO FAR OUT INTO THE SIMULATION...THAT THE BEST FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
AT THIS TIME IS TO NOT GIVE THE GFS SOLUTION ALL THAT MUCH WEIGHT.



and I been sayin' for three days, NOT to watch the GFS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
432. hydrus
2:47 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
431. DeepSeaRising
2:46 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 374. wartsttocs:

From post 323:
"If we don't brunt ISIS, we may find ourselves in another war that most don't think could happen. For not having any real air force, ISIS is spreading like cancer. Estimates are way to low on their manpower. My study leads me to believe they have well over 100k in manpower now. Anyone who knew me when I was Tribucanes knows I am no Republican. I am a truth seeking independent through and through. That said Obama is the new Chamberlain and this 60 country coalition is a paper tiger. One notices not the rabid dog roaming the neighbors' street until one day you open the door and there he is. "

There are far worse threats than ISIS out there. The biggest one by far and it's relation to the ISIS threat is explained nicely in an article here:

Link

From the article:
"But this is nothing by comparison to the real threats to global security, which make global security, as understood by McCain and Obama, look almost frivolous. As the evidence accumulates, it now seems that climate change was the commonest cause of mass extinction in the Earth’s prehistory."

and.......

"Yes: the geological record suggests that fossil fuel burning might have eliminated most life on Earth.

And today? According to a paper published in 2013, the current rate of ocean acidification, caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is faster than at any time in the past 300m years. During the Permian mass extinction, the eruption of the Siberian Traps through the Tunguska basin seems to have produced between one and two gigatonnes of carbon dioxide a year. Today fossil fuel burning produces 30 gigatonnes a year.

Isis? Global security? If anyone were to survive a mass extinction on the scale of the Permian catastrophe, they would look back and shake their heads, amazed that we could have considered such issues more important."


I find myself doing more and more eyerolls and facepalms listening to the politics of today. It all seems like childish bickering and I am becoming almost unable to sit through it anymore.
Science, climate, and weather are an interesting read most times. Even if some of the bickering follows. I can enjoy my day off by hanging out with the dogs out in the yard (might hit 90F), doing some chores around the house, catching up on some reading, hanging out on the blog, and staying away from the politics show.





Millions of American's are unable to sit through it anymore. Both political parties want exactly that. Enough people tune out and nothing changes. As far as saying AGW is worse than ISIS, that is an unknown. Tell that to anyone in ISIS held territories who are Shiites or Christians. Tell that to the children buried alive. It's a comparison that can't be made. Agree AGW is proven, perhaps the % we are responsible is debatable, but evidence is we are very much largely responsible for what's happening. The Yoboi's of the world are shameless and either work with a heavy agenda, love the attention, have never studied the OVERWHELMING evidence, or are so hoodwinked by the Right that they have lost the ability to seek truth for themselves. AGW effects will be over time and become increasingly severe with many many unknowns. Long term it will cost tens of trillions and kill millions if real large scale efforts are not made. AGW, long term, next hundred years will be the biggest threat. We have to get there first. Nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, another World War, total financial collapse; lots of things could happen that get us before AGW does. I'll give you this, AGW is the long term largest threat to the world.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
430. Patrap
2:46 PM GMT on May 30, 2015
Quoting 427. Naga5000:



Yes, but since we can't get rid of the Chinese food snatching mutt, we have to keep trying training, right? :)


Yer gonna need LOTSA newspaper me tinks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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