Bogus GFS Model Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:49 PM GMT on June 13, 2014

There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the coming five days. However, the 00Z Friday run of the GFS model predicts that a low pressure area will develop over the Western Caribbean by Wednesday, and push northwards into the Gulf of Mexico and become a tropical storm late in the week. The GFS has been fixated on variations of this idea in all of its runs for the past five days--though the timing of when the predicted storm will form has bounced around from 5 - 11 days into the future. Should we be concerned? A 2013 study by a group of scientists led by Florida State's Daniel Halperin found that we have three models that can make decent forecasts of the genesis of new tropical cyclones in the Atlantic: the GFS, European (ECMWF), and UKMET models. The study only evaluated the model skill for forecasts out to four days in the future, and the forecast skill declined markedly for three- and four-day forecasts. In the current scenario, we are talking about forecasts made much further into the future, which are bound to be low-skill. In addition, the study found that the GFS model had a high incidence of false alarms for tropical cyclone genesis forecasts in the Caribbean (50%). The other two reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis (European and UKMET) had no hint of a low pressure area developing in the Western Caribbean on Wednesday in their 00Z Friday runs. One additional model to consider: the 00Z Friday run of the NAVGEM model is supporting the GFS's idea of a low pressure area forming in the Western Caribbean by Wednesday. The predecessor to this model, the NOGAPS model, was evaluated in the Florida State study, but performed poorly in making tropical cyclone genesis forecasts. However, when two or more models make the same genesis forecast, the odds of the event actually occurring are increased considerably, the study found.


Figure 1. Friday the 13th, GFS style: The 00Z UTC Friday, June 13, 2014 forecast from the GFS model for nine days into the future shows a powerful tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. The purple colors indicate winds of 50 - 60 knots (57 - 69 mph.) But is it a bogus forecast? Very likely.


Figure 2. The 2004–11 GFS forecasts for tropical cyclone genesis, showing Hits (green triangle), False Alarms (red square), and Incorrect Timing (blue circle) event locations. Numbers in parentheses are the numbers of model-predicted events. The model made 46 forecasts that a tropical depression or tropical storm would form in the Caribbean (purple box) during this 8-year period. Fully 50% of these forecasts were False Alarms; 11% of the forecasts verified, but the timing was off by at least a day (IT events); and 39% of the genesis forecasts verified with the right timing. Noteworthy is the model's few False Alarms over the Gulf of Mexico: only 15% of the total. Image credit: Halperin et al., 2013, Weather and Forecasting, "An evaluation of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from global numerical models."

We know that the GFS model gets in trouble when making predictions of heavy thunderstorm activity via a problem called "convective feedback." Basically, the model sometimes simulates that an unrealistically large area of thunderstorms will develop, destabilize the atmosphere, and cause an area of low pressure to form that will draw in more moisture and create more heavy thunderstorms. This vicious cycle can snowball out of control and generate a bogus low pressure area that can then modify the upper level winds, reduce the wind shear, and allow a tropical depression to form. This problem may be less of an issue in a new version of the GFS model scheduled to be released late this summer; NHC hurricane specialist Eric Blake tweeted on Tuesday a comparison of the old and new 1-week GFS model forecasts for the Western Caribbean made last Tuesday, showing that the upgraded GFS model was not creating nearly as strong of a low pressure system as the old GFS model. Arguing against any development in the Atlantic the remainder of June is the anticipated strengthening in the West-Central Pacific Ocean of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. An active MJO in that part of the tropics tends to bring large-scale sinking motion to the tropical Atlantic and increased wind shear, which puts a damper on the chances of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic. The MJO is predicted to drift slowly eastwards into the Eastern Pacific by late June, which will tend to keep odds of tropical storm formation lower than average in the Atlantic into late June. All factors considered, I am inclined to give a 10% chance that the GFS model is correct in spinning up a tropical depression late in the week in the Western Caribbean.

Hurricane Cristina weakening
Hurricane Cristina is headed downhill after peaking as powerful Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds and a central pressure estimated at 935 mb at 11 am EDT Thursday, June 12, 2014. The double feature of Category 4 hurricanes Cristina and Amanda gives 2014 two of the five strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific so early in the year:

Top Five Strongest Early Season (May - June) Eastern Pacific Hurricanes
1973, June 6: Hurricane Ava, 160 mph, 915 mb.
2010, June 25: Hurricane Celia, 160 mph, 921 mb
2014, May 25: Hurricane Amanda, 155 mph, 932 mb
2000, June 21: Hurricane Carlotta, 155 mph, 932 mb
2014, June 12: Hurricane Cristina, 150 mph, 935 mb


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image from the Aqua satellite of Hurricane Cristina at 18 UTC Thursday, June 12, 2014. At the time, Cristina was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Arabian Sea's Tropical Cyclone Nanauk dissipates
Tropical Cyclone Nanauk in the Arabian Sea has been torn apart by high wind shear of 25 - 30 knots and dry air, and is no longer a threat to Oman.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting 940. AtHomeInTX:



Lovely. lol


Luckily correlation doesn't mean cause and effect.

But it is still interesting.
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Quoting 979. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Welcome back, Scott. Hope your trip to New Orleans was a good one. :) Looks like Florida's rainy season is in full gear now.


I was in Chicago but i will be in New Orleans in July.
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Quoting 978. StormTrackerScott:

Both now Euro and GFS pull very deep tropical moisture north out of the Caribbean later this week giving the GFS some credit that we may very well see 91L in the NW Caribbean later this week or weekend. Something to watch as shear is expected to lessen in about 3 to 5 days.



0Z Euro pulls this area of vort out of the NW Caribbean. This is the first signs on the Euro that I have seen trending toward the GFS's solution of disturbed weather coming out of the Caribbean.


Welcome back, Scott. Hope your trip to New Orleans was a good one. :) Looks like Florida's rainy season is in full gear now.
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Both now Euro and GFS pull very deep tropical moisture north out of the Caribbean later this week giving the GFS some credit that we may very well see 91L in the NW Caribbean later this week or weekend. Something to watch as shear is expected to lessen in about 3 to 5 days.



0Z Euro pulls this area of vort out of the NW Caribbean. This is the first signs on the Euro that I have seen trending toward the GFS's solution of disturbed weather coming out of the Caribbean.

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4.65" of rain in Longwood so far this month with now 9 straight days of rain.


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Early morning Severe Thunderstorm Watch

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966. weathermanwannabe 12:03 PM GMT on June 16, 2014
Thanks. Just kinda nasty looking out there and not in the mood for a "surprise" blow up into something! With all the talk of a slow season and El Nino, have not even started to get (the just in case) hurricane supplies yet!
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973. SLU
Quoting 953. DDR:

Good morninG.
Its very wet and overcast here in Trinidad,typical June weather,though our nieghboring islands to the north,Grenada/barbados/St Vincent are in extreme drought,the gfs is showing some rain pushing throught the drought areas which is good because they have serious water shortage issues up there.


0.8mm of rain for the first 15 days of June at our international airport .... The average for June is between 125 mm - 150mm
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Quoting sar2401:

This has been about the slowest "Slight" risk day so far this year. Only 6 storm reports total. Five were for hail and one wind, no tornadoes at all. All but one of the reports were outside the "Slight" risk area. I don't know what happened today. There are usually more than 6 storm reports for just about any day in mid-June.

Quoting LargoFl:
Looks like the west coast of florida gets the action later today.........................................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...HOWEVER NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.


The later in the day the stronger the storms. Yesterday the storms didn't move into our area until late afternoon, but they were very strong.
We had heat index temperatures ranging from 100 to 110 degrees across S.W. Florida prior to the storms moving in. That really provides a lot of juice for the storms.
After the storms went through, the temperature dropped to 73 degrees (nice relief for the heat).
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Vary Lat winter season snow storm





Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
533 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2014

...HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL EXPECTED ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY, THEN AS LOW AS 6000 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF UP TO A FOOT OR MORE IS LIKELY ALONG EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT INCLUDING GLACIER NATIONAL PARK.

MTZ009-048-162200-
/O.NEW.KTFX.WS.A.0007.140617T0600Z-140618T1800Z/
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
533 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO
20 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERIOD
OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY: NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES ARE
POSSIBLE.

* ELEVATIONS: FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE: EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT INCLUDING GLACIER NATIONAL PARK.

* TO SEE A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HAZARD PLEASE VISIT
OUR WEB PAGE AND CLICK ON THE DETAILED HAZARDS TAB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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Quoting 967. islander101010:

what about this expected el nino? models are backing off on the intensity over the past month. will this have any bearing on the upcoming hurricane season?


This been said many of times like I said this blog sounds like a broken record all way asking the same question two where they all ready Sould no the answer two
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bahamas disturbance? seen them in the past turn into cyclones. climatology says its possible. if its there wednesday odds should go up
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This blog sounds like a broken record
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what about this expected el nino? models are backing off on the intensity over the past month. will this have any bearing on the upcoming hurricane season?
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964.CitikatzSouthFL 7:58 AM EDT on June 16, 2014
That little blob off of Florida is not a tropical disturbance.  Just some showers enhanced by the upper level low (Tutt Cell) sitting off of the Coast of Florida.  That is the upper level  feature (the yellow area) in the chart below.  Baroclinic precipitation and the rotation is in the upper atmosphere and not anywhere near the surface; it will not develop into anything tropical:

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Looks like the west coast of florida gets the action later today.........................................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...HOWEVER NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
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Quoting 959. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning.  Atlantic quiet this morning, as it should be this time of the year, and the E-Pac with a slight long term percentage with the wave off of Central America:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg


Just looked at the radar of that big blob offshore of South and Central Florida, and it appears to just be sitting there and I can see some spin. Could a low develop from this? We have been having huge thunderstorms with heavy rain the last few days. Blob is just sitting and growing offshore. Would probably move east anyway, but don't want to be surprised if a little low or something else tries to develop. Am at work for 12 hours today and no time to check out other weather sites.
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And finally the current shear profile for the Atlantic; the Gulf and Western Atlantic are closed for business shear-wise at the moment as well:


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Quoting 918. FOREX:

I feel like I belong to a country club where I'm not wanted with this blog. Does anyone know of any other tropical blogs that are more friendly towards relative newcomers?


Don't feel bad and don't go anywhere. When things are slow some people on the blog get irritable. Just wait until something starts to form and you will see how much you can learn and how helpful many can be.
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And the heavy SAL continues to proliferate in the Central Atlantic stretching all the way to the Caribbean:

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Quoting 956. PanhandleChuck:

Anybody know of any other good TROPICAL WEATHER sites / blogs? This was a really cool site when I first started coming here about 6 years ago and yes some of the "cool old timers" are still here, but it gets old coming here even during hurricane season and seeing all of the silly liberal nonsense about how we are creating global warming as little peons.

Okay I need to stop before I raise my blood pressure.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

Chuck


liberal? kay, dude, put the kool aid down and back away slowly.
political affiliation has nothing to do with an individuals stance on climate change.
and sweeping generalisations are for trolls and morons.
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Good Morning.  Atlantic quiet this morning, as it should be this time of the year, and the E-Pac with a slight long term percentage with the wave off of Central America:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg
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Later today across the Northern Plains. Looks like there could be some isolated supercells.

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Quoting 956. PanhandleChuck:

Anybody know of any other good TROPICAL WEATHER sites / blogs? This was a really cool site when I first started coming here about 6 years ago and yes some of the "cool old timers" are still here, but it gets old coming here even during hurricane season and seeing all of the silly liberal nonsense about how we are creating global warming as little peons.

Okay I need to stop before I raise my blood pressure.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

Chuck


You mean to tell us that you've been using the internet for at least six years, yet you still haven't figured out how to use Google on your own? That may be some type of record... ;-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Anybody know of any other good TROPICAL WEATHER sites / blogs? This was a really cool site when I first started coming here about 6 years ago and yes some of the "cool old timers" are still here, but it gets old coming here even during hurricane season and seeing all of the silly liberal nonsense about how we are creating global warming as little peons.

Okay I need to stop before I raise my blood pressure.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

Chuck
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Yesterday reports of 3-4" of rain in some areas around S.W. Florida.
Today could be a repeat of yesterday.
Weak easterly flow should interact with the westcoast sea breeze and produce some strong storms later today.

But don't rule out storms anywhere in the state from outflow boundaries interacting with local sea breeze. Yesterday we saw strong storms all over the state during the afternoon.

HRRR model shows storms piled up on the westcoast this evening.
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Quoting 946. Gearsts:

Well i take back what i said





It still produced this:




Quoting 949. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The CFS is forecasting the East Pacific to become increasingly wet as the MJO moves eastward; maybe some West Pacific tropical activity as well? As I said yesterday, sea surface temperatures are well above-average.




We should start seeing WPAC activity ramp up soon, as the ITCZ rises further north. Will be interesting to see how active it'll be this year.
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953. DDR
Good morninG.
Its very wet and overcast here in Trinidad,typical June weather,though our nieghboring islands to the north,Grenada/barbados/St Vincent are in extreme drought,the gfs is showing some rain pushing throught the drought areas which is good because they have serious water shortage issues up there.
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gfs keeping central america good and wet throughout the period. thats good news in that they have been dry. also noticed local surf report on the pacific side are calling for a period of onshore winds and choppy seas. not a great time to take a surf vacation
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Good morning. My hopes aren't especially high for the potential severe weather event today, but if things come together right there would be a threat for a strong tornado or two across northern Iowa/southern Minnesota.



...ERN HALVES OF SD/NEB EWD TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY
MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
DAY STORM EVOLUTION AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DESPITE THESE
CONCERNS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 DEG C PER KM
ATOP MID-UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE 3000 J/KG OR GREATER/ TO THE E OF THE
DRYLINE...S OF THE WARM FRONT...AND ANY EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW. THE FOCUSING OF THE LLJ INTO ERN NEB/SD AND SRN MN/NRN IA
DURING THE DAY WILL LEAD TO LARGE HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
WARM FRONT. DIURNALLY-GENERATED SCTD STORMS AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS YIELDING A
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES /SOME PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT/.
THE APPROACH OF A 50 KT H7
WIND MAXIMUM DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT AN
ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE AND MOVES EWD
TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT LAKES.
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950. JRRP
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The CFS is forecasting the East Pacific to become increasingly wet as the MJO moves eastward; maybe some West Pacific tropical activity as well? As I said yesterday, sea surface temperatures are well above-average.


the region 1-2 will cold a little bit
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The CFS is forecasting the East Pacific to become increasingly wet as the MJO moves eastward; maybe some West Pacific tropical activity as well? As I said yesterday, sea surface temperatures are well above-average.

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Quoting Thrawst:
Well that's unexpected



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NWRN OK THROUGH SWRN AND SCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY


This has been about the slowest "Slight" risk day so far this year. Only 6 storm reports total. Five were for hail and one wind, no tornadoes at all. All but one of the reports were outside the "Slight" risk area. I don't know what happened today. There are usually more than 6 storm reports for just about any day in mid-June.
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Quoting Jedkins01:

Today was very muggy today as well, only a high of 88 but high dew points and light winds made it feel quite steamy. Picked up a nice little thunderstorm this evening, that gives us 5 days in a row with a thunderstorm and decent rain accumulation. Which is really nice because we started June on an odd dry streak with the first 10 days of June getting no rain here despite numerous thunderstorm coverage on all 10 days. Finally the local dry spell broke and we've been getting it.

I wish I could say the same. High today was 96 with a dewpoint that never went below 70, but with a cloudless blue sky. We had one 10 minute thunderstorm three days ago and that's been it for the last 10 days. We've had thunderstorms just to the south and just to north but they've all managed to avoid Eufaula. There's something about the lake (Walter F. George Reservoir or, more commonly, Lake Eufaula) just to the east of me that makes thunderstorms split over us and then reform when they move on. I don't know what the process is but I've watched it enough on radar to know it's real. It's a big lake (159 square miles with a 600 mile shoreline) that's large enough to have local effects on my weather. Any storm that comes from the south has to traverse a large part of the surface waters, and storm tend to either fall apart or weaken significantly before they get to town. OTOH, the lake is also large enough to cause lake effect snows. During the storms this winter, places 20 miles west of us might get a dusting of snow while we'd get three inches. Almost like living back in Cleveland with a miniature Lake Erie at my doorstep.
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Quoting 945. CaribBoy:



I'm about to... cry :-(
Well i take back what i said
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Quoting 943. Gearsts:

The setup this year couldn't be worst.


I'm about to... cry :-(
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Well that's unexpected



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NWRN OK THROUGH SWRN AND SCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 160404Z - 160530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EXTREME NWRN OK INTO SWRN
KS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT PRODUCE HAIL...BUT A CONDITIONAL
THREAT ALSO EXISTS FOR A TORNADO. DUE TO THE OVERALL CONDITIONAL
NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED
UNLESS TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING...A FEW STORMS WERE INDICATED FROM
EXTREME NWRN OK TO SWRN KS TO THE SOUTH OF DODGE CITY. THE ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF FOCUSED MESOSCALE ASCENT
WHERE THE INTENSIFYING LLJ INTERSECTS RETREATING WARM FRONT. RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT...BUT EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATED A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT HAS LIKELY BEEN WEAKENED BY THE INCREASING
MESOSCALE ASCENT. GIVEN RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CONCERN IS THAT
STORMS MAY BE ROOTED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE WHERE LARGE HODOGRAPHS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME THREAT FOR LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/16/2014
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Quoting 941. CaribBoy:



2014 is terrible so far...
The setup this year couldn't be worst.
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I think the Northern Leewards have a good chance to see a storm passing within a radius of 200 miles :-) The storms love crossing 20N at 60W.
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Quoting 938. Gearsts:




2014 is terrible so far...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...DOOM!!!!!?



Lovely. lol
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Stanley Cup
New Yorkers are none to happy either.
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I've returned, as of today, from a weekend trip to the French Quarter. I'm only like an hour away, so the going was easy. Rode with David Kelley (known here as auburn) and his wife Bonnie, along with my brother.

Anyways... point I'm ultimately coming to is that the hotel receptionist promised to "call the authorities" if I didn't wake up at my scheduled check out time, which was 11 AM. There was nary an inkling of facetiousness in her tone at all, so I assume she was serious. I just laughed and told her it would make my life more interesting.

Only I can could do something like that. :)))))
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Quoting 922. Ameister12:


I completely agree.

Soundings at Columbus, NE definitely suggests a pretty significant tornado threat if storms stay discrete for a while, but it'll be yet another event where we'll have to wait and see what the storms decide to do.



Ah yes, saw that sounding on the Americanwx forum. we shall see what happens. Interested to read the 6z outlook!

Chat anybody? I am there.
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Quoting 907. TropicalAnalystwx13:

As an aside, it has now been 7 years since the last Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic (Felix 2007). That means that many here -- including myself -- have never tracked a 140kt cyclone in the basin. Even though this has been a long time, it's not the longest stretch on record--there were 8 years between Allen (1980) and Gilbert (1988), and a record 13 years between the 1938 Long Island Express and 1951's Easy.

Maybe we get one soon...


Thankfully I remember tracking Dean and Felix rather vividly. Hoping to do that again sooner or later.
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Quoting 931. KoritheMan:



Oh great, who have I offended with my abrasiveness now? :)


Don't fall for the obvious Kori...

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.
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They have a slow radar loop of Humberto here. Here is the fast one.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 918. FOREX:

I feel like I belong to a country club where I'm not wanted with this blog. Does anyone know of any other tropical blogs that are more friendly towards relative newcomers?


Oh great, who have I offended with my abrasiveness now? :)
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Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice