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NOAA Predicts a Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season: 8 - 13 Named Storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on May 22, 2014

The Atlantic hurricane season starts in just over a week, and long-range models are already pointing to the possibility that the Western Caribbean will be capable of brewing the season's first "Invest" during the first week of June. But so far, the major hurricane forecasting groups are not impressed with this season's potential to be an active one. They are calling for 2014 to be a below average to near-average year for the Atlantic. NOAA's prediction, issued this Thursday morning, forecasts a 50% chance of a below-normal season, a 40% chance of an near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 8 - 13 named storms, 3 - 6 hurricanes, and 1 - 2 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 40% - 100% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 10.5 named storms, 4.5 hurricanes, 1.5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% of normal. This is below the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2013 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.



NOAA cites three key factors influencing their forecast for a below-normal to near-normal hurricane season:

1) An El Niño event is predicted for the summer and fall, which is expected to bring strong wind shear-inducing upper-level winds over the Tropical Atlantic. Vertical wind shear during the past 30 days was stronger than average across much of the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. Sinking air at mid-and upper-levels was also stronger than average. The development of El Niño would mean a likely continuation of these non-conducive conditions, and both versions of NOAA's long-range CFS model are predicting enhanced vertical wind shear across the western MDR during August-September-October 2014. Strong vertical wind shear and sinking motion, linked to a rare jet stream pattern of record strength, were key suppressing factors during the unexpectedly quiet 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

2) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near average in the MDR. Many long-range dynamical computer forecast models are predicting that SSTs in the MDR will remain near- or below-average throughout the hurricane season.

3) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995, and this positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) may act to keep hurricane activity higher than it would otherwise be.

Colorado State predicts a below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
A below-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2014, according to the June 2 seasonal hurricane forecast by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 65, about 2/3 of average. The forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (22% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (23% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also below average, at 32% (42% is average.)




Figure 1. Category 4 Hurricane Lili in the Gulf of Mexico at 16:45 UTC on October 02, 2002. Lili was the strongest hurricane of 2002, a year that the Colorado State seasonal forecast team lists as an analogue for 2014. Lili weakened to a Category 1 storm before hitting Louisiana, causing just under $1 billion in damage.

CSU's Analogue years: 2009, 2002, 1997, 1965, and 1957
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what they expect for this year: at least moderate El Niño conditions, neutral to slightly cool sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and a positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). Those five years were 2009, a quiet year with 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes; 2002, which featured two major hurricanes that got their names retired: Lili and Isidore; 1997, a quiet year with only 8 named storms and 3 hurricanes; 1963, with 9 named storms and 7 hurricanes, including Cuba's deadliest hurricane of all-time: Hurricane Flora (8,000 killed); and 1957, a below-average year with 8 named storms and 2 major hurricanes, including June's deadly Hurricane Audrey, which was re-analyzed as a Category 3 storm this year. The average activity during these five analogue years was 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The CSU team will issue an updated forecast on July 31, 2014.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2004-2013, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2004 - 2013 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, modest for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season: 12 named storms
The April 7 forecast for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for a near-average season with 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 75. The long-term averages for the past 64 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 102. TSR rates their skill level as modest for these April forecasts: 7 - 15% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. They project that 3 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1 of these being a hurricane. The averages from the 1950-2013 climatology are 3 named storms and 1 hurricane hitting the United States. TSR rates their skill at making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 5% - 8% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects one named storm and no hurricanes in 2014. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speeds over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes. Their model is calling for SSTs 0.32°C below average and trade winds 1 m/s stronger than average during these periods; both of these factors should act to decrease hurricane and tropical storm activity. The July-September 2014 trade wind prediction is based on an expectation of moderate El Niño conditions in August-September 2014. TSR will issue an updated forecast on May 27, 2014.

Penn State predicts a below-average hurricane season: 9 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann, alumnus Michael Kozar, and researcher Sonya Miller is calling for a quiet Atlantic hurricane season with 9.3 named storms, plus or minus 3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistical model assumes that the mid-May 2014 0.29°C above average SSTs in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, a moderate El Niño will be in place, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize. They were the only major forecast group that issued a successful 2013 Atlantic hurricane season forecast.

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19
2013 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 14

FSU predicts a below-average hurricane season: 7 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their sixth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 29, and went the lowest of any of the major forecast group: a 70% probability of 5 - 9 named storms and 2 - 6 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 60. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast did well in 2009 - 2012, but badly missed the number of hurricanes in their 2013 prediction (8 predicted, but only 2 formed):

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes
2013 prediction: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes. Actual: 14 named storms, 2 hurricanes

UK Met Office predicts a below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 16, calls for below-average activity, with 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 84. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, PSU, and NOAA, the UKMET forecast is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. Their forecasts for the past two years have not verified well:

2012 prediction: 10 named storms, ACE index of 90; Actual: 19 named storms, ACE index of 123
2013 prediction: 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, ACE index of 130; Actual: 14 named storms, 2 hurricanes, ACE index of 31

Predictions from WU, WSI, and NC State
Weather Underground Community Hurricane Forecast: 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes
WSI: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes
North Carolina State: 9.5 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

NOAA predicts an above-normal or near-normal Eastern Pacific hurricane season: 17 named storms
As is usually the case when an El Niño event is threatening, NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, is calling for an active season. NOAA expects there to be 14 - 20 named storms, 7 - 11 hurricanes, 3 - 6 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 95% - 160% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 127.5% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The outlook calls for a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the tropical Eastern Pacific, favoring the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones. Since 1995 the Eastern Pacific has been in an era of low activity for hurricanes, but this pattern will be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño.

NOAA predicts a near-normal or above-normal Central Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a near-normal or above-normal season, with 4 -7 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. The outlook calls for a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 40% chance of an above-normal season, and a 20% chance of a below-normal season. El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the tropical central Pacific, favoring the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones. Since 1995 the central Pacific has been in an era of low activity for hurricanes, but this pattern will be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

Even a quiet hurricane season can be devastating
Quiet hurricane seasons with below-average activity can still produce major hurricanes that cause massive devastation. The five seasons that CSU lists as analogue years for 2014 produced five hurricanes that had their names retired, including one that killed 8,000 people in Cuba (Flora of 1963) and one that killed over 400 people in Texas and Louisiana (Audrey of 1957.) Even if an El Niño does develop this year, that doesn't mean it will be a quiet season. Recall the El Niño year of 2004, when four major hurricanes pounded the U.S.--Ivan, Charlie, Jeanne, and Frances. Those of you in Hurricane Alley should prepare for the 2014 season the same way you would for a predicted hyperactive season, and be ready for the Storm of the Century to hit your location.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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527. hydrus
5:26 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Henry Margisity said today that the upper air pattern in early June is forecast to be similar to that in 1972. If a tropical disturbance does form, it may have a similar track.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
526. rayduray2013
3:32 PM GMT on May 23, 2014

Quoting 442. cRRKampen:


Yes. This run-up to Russian/Ukraine summer is even worse than it went in 2010 and it looks scarily the same kind of thing. Watch the wheat prices this year.
Agrimoney is a London based investor's service. Here's what they had to say yesterday about Russia's projected wheat harvest: "Russia upgrades grain hopes, despite dryness fears"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
525. Patrap
3:29 PM GMT on May 23, 2014



It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.





Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues



Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit


NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com






History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster.

5


HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TIPS



Hurricane hazards come in many forms: storm surge, high winds, tornadoes, and flooding. This means it is important for your family to have a plan that includes all of these hazards. Look carefully at the safety actions associated with each type of hurricane hazard and prepare your family disaster plan accordingly. But remember this is only a guide. The first and most important thing anyone should do when facing a hurricane threat is to use common sense.

You should be able to answer the following questions before a hurricane threatens:

*
What are the Hurricane Hazards?
*
What does it mean to you?
*
What actions should you take to be prepared?

Hurricanes and Your Health and Safety


* The great majority of injuries during a hurricane are cuts caused by flying glass or other debris. Other injuries include puncture wounds resulting from exposed nails, metal, or glass, and bone fractures.
* State and local health departments may issue health advisories or recommendations particular to local conditions. If in doubt, contact your local or state health department.
* Make sure to include all essential medications -- both prescription and over the counter -- in your family's emergency disaster kit.


* Hurricanes, especially if accompanied by a tidal surge or flooding, can contaminate the public water supply. Drinking contaminated water may cause illness. You cannot assume that the water in the hurricane-affected area is safe to drink.
* In the area hit by a hurricane, water treatment plants may not be operating; even if they are, storm damage and flooding can contaminate water lines. Listen for public announcements about the safety of the municipal water supply.
* If your well has been flooded, it needs to be tested and disinfected after the storm passes and the floodwaters recede. Questions about testing should be directed to your local or state health department.

Water Safety

* Use bottled water that has not been exposed to flood waters if it is available.
* If you don't have bottled water, you should boil water to make it safe. Boiling water will kill most types of disease-causing organisms that may be present. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for boiling. Boil the water for one minute, let it cool, and store it in clean containers with covers.
* If you can't boil water, you can disinfect it using household bleach. Bleach will kill some, but not all, types of disease-causing organisms that may be in the water. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for disinfection. Add 1/8 teaspoon (or 8 drops) of regular, unscented, liquid household bleach for each gallon of water, stir it well and let it stand for 30 minutes before you use it. Store disinfected water in clean containers with covers.
* If you have a well that has been flooded, the water should be tested and disinfected after flood waters recede. If you suspect that your well may be contaminated, contact your local or state health department or agriculture extension agent for specific advice.

Food Safety

* Do not eat any food that may have come into contact with flood water.
* Discard any food that is not in a waterproof container if there is any chance that it has come into contact with flood water. Food containers that are not waterproof include those with screw-caps, snap lids, pull tops, and crimped caps. Also, discard cardboard juice/milk/baby formula boxes and home canned foods if they have come in contact with flood water, because they cannot be effectively cleaned and sanitized.
* Inspect canned foods and discard any food in damaged cans. Can damage is shown by swelling; leakage; punctures; holes; fractures; extensive deep rusting; or crushing/denting severe enough to prevent normal stacking or opening with a manual, wheel-type can opener.
* Undamaged, commercially prepared foods in all-metal cans and retort pouches (for example, flexible, shelf-stable juice or seafood pouches) can be saved if you do the following:
o Remove the labels, if they are the removable kind, since they can harbor dirt and bacteria.
o Thoroughly wash the cans or retort pouches with soap and water, using hot water if it is available.
o Brush or wipe away any dirt or silt.
o Rinse the cans or retort pouches with water that is safe for drinking, if available, since dirt or residual soap will reduce the effectiveness of chlorine sanitation.
o Then, sanitize them by immersion in one of the two following ways:
+ place in water and allow the water to come to a boil and continue boiling for 2 minutes, or
+ place in a freshly-made solution consisting of 1 tablespoon of unscented liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available) for 15 minutes.
* Air dry cans or retort pouches for a minimum of 1 hour before opening or storing.
* If the labels were removable, then re-label your cans or retort pouches, including the expiration date (if available), with a marker.
* Food in reconditioned cans or retort pouches should be used as soon as possible, thereafter.
* Any concentrated baby formula in reconditioned, all-metal containers must be diluted with clean, drinking water.
* Thoroughly wash metal pans, ceramic dishes, and utensils (including can openers) with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize them by boiling in clean water or immersing them for 15 minutes in a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available).
* Thoroughly wash countertops with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize by applying a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available). Allow to air dry.

Frozen and Refrigerated Foods

* If you will be without power for a long period:
o ask friends to store your frozen foods in their freezers if they have electricity;
o see if freezer space is available in a store, church, school, or commercial freezer that has electrical service; or
o use dry ice, if available. Twenty-five pounds of dry ice will keep a ten-cubic-foot freezer below freezing for 3-4 days. Use care when handling dry ice, and wear dry, heavy gloves to avoid injury.
* Your refrigerator will keep foods cool for about four hours without power if it is unopened. Add block or dry ice to your refrigerator if the electricity will be off longer than four hours.
* Thawed food can usually be eaten if it is still "refrigerator cold," or re-frozen if it still contains ice crystals.
* To be safe, remember, "When in doubt, throw it out." Discard any food that has been at room temperature for two hours or more, and any food that has an unusual odor, color, or texture.

Sanitation and Hygiene

It is critical for you to remember to practice basic hygiene during the emergency period. Always wash your hands with soap and water that has been boiled or disinfected:

* before preparing or eating
* after toilet use
* after participating in cleanup activities; and
* after handling articles contaminated with floodwater or sewage.

If there is flooding along with a hurricane, the waters may contain fecal material from overflowing sewage systems and agricultural and industrial waste. Although skin contact with floodwater does not, by itself, pose a serious health risk, there is risk of disease from eating or drinking anything contaminated with floodwater.

If you have any open cuts or sores that will be exposed to floodwater, keep them as clean as possible by washing them with soap and applying an antibiotic ointment to discourage infection. If a wound develops redness, swelling, or drainage, seek immediate medical attention.

Do not allow children to play in floodwater areas. Wash children's hands frequently (always before meals), and do not allow children to play with floodwater-contaminated toys that have not been disinfected. You can disinfect toys using a solution of one cup of bleach in five gallons of water.

Immunizations

Outbreaks of communicable diseases after hurricanes are unusual. However, the rates of diseases that were present before a hurricane may increase because of a lack of sanitation or overcrowding in shelters. Increases in infectious diseases that were not present before the hurricane are not a problem, so mass vaccination programs are unnecessary.

If you have wounds, you should be evaluated for a tetanus immunization, just as you would at any other time of injury. If you receive a puncture wound or a wound contaminated with feces, soil, or saliva, have a doctor or health department determine whether a tetanus booster is necessary based on individual records.

Specific recommendations for vaccinations should be made on a case-by-case basis, or as determined by local and state health departments.

Mosquitoes

Rain and flooding in a hurricane area may lead to an increase in mosquitoes. Mosquitoes are most active at sunrise and sunset. In most cases, the mosquitoes will be pests but will not carry communicable diseases. It is unlikely that diseases which were not present in the area prior to the hurricane would be of concern. Local, state, and federal public health authorities will be actively working to control the spread of any mosquito-borne diseases.

To protect yourself from mosquitoes, use screens on dwellings, and wear clothes with long sleeves and long pants. Insect repellents that contain DEET are very effective. Be sure to read all instructions before using DEET. Care must be taken when using DEET on small children. Products containing DEET are available from stores and through local and state health departments.

To control mosquito populations, drain all standing water left in open containers outside your home.

Mental Health

The days and weeks after a hurricane are going to be rough. In addition to your physical health, you need to take some time to consider your mental health as well. Remember that some sleeplessness, anxiety, anger, hyperactivity, mild depression, or lethargy are normal, and may go away with time. If you feel any of these symptoms acutely, seek counseling. Remember that children need extra care and attention before, during, and after the storm. Be sure to locate a favorite toy or game for your child before the storm arrives to help maintain his/her sense of security. Your state and local health departments will help you find the local resources, including hospitals or health care providers, that you may need.

Seeking Assistance after a Hurricane

SEEKING DISASTER ASSISTANCE: Throughout the recovery period, it is important to monitor local radio or television reports and other media sources for information about where to get emergency housing, food, first aid, clothing, and financial assistance. The following section provides general information about the kinds of assistance that may be available.

DIRECT ASSISTANCE: Direct assistance to individuals and families may come from any number of organizations, including: the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and other volunteer organizations. These organizations provide food, shelter, supplies and assist in clean-up efforts.

THE FEDERAL ROLE: In the most severe disasters, the federal government is also called in to help individuals and families with temporary housing, counseling (for post-disaster trauma), low-interest loans and grants, and other assistance. The federal government also has programs that help small businesses and farmers.

Most federal assistance becomes available when the President of the United States declares a Major Disaster for the affected area at the request of a state governor. FEMA will provide information through the media and community outreach about federal assistance and how to apply.

Coping after a Hurricane Everyone who sees or experiences a hurricane is affected by it in some way. It is normal to feel anxious about your own safety and that of your family and close friends. Profound sadness, grief, and anger are normal reactions to an abnormal event. Acknowledging your feelings helps you recover. Focusing on your strengths and abilities helps you heal. Accepting help from community programs and resources is healthy. Everyone has different needs and different ways of coping. It is common to want to strike back at people who have caused great pain. Children and older adults are of special concern in the aftermath of disasters. Even individuals who experience a disaster �second hand� through exposure to extensive media coverage can be affected.

Contact local faith-based organizations, voluntary agencies, or professional counselors for counseling. Additionally, FEMA and state and local governments of the affected area may provide crisis counseling assistance.

Minimize this emotional and traumatic experience by being prepared, not scared and therefore you and your family will stay in control and survive a major hurricane.

SIGNS OF HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Difficulty communicating thoughts.
* Difficulty sleeping.
* Difficulty maintaining balance in their lives.
* Low threshold of frustration.
* Increased use of drugs/alcohol.
* Limited attention span.
* Poor work performance.
* Headaches/stomach problems.
* Tunnel vision/muffled hearing.
* Colds or flu-like symptoms.
* Disorientation or confusion.
* Difficulty concentrating.
* Reluctance to leave home.
* Depression, sadness.
* Feelings of hopelessness.
* Mood-swings and easy bouts of crying.
* Overwhelming guilt and self-doubt.
* Fear of crowds, strangers, or being alone.

EASING HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Talk with someone about your feelings - anger, sorrow, and other emotions - even though it may be difficult.
* Seek help from professional counselors who deal with post-disaster stress.
* Do not hold yourself responsible for the disastrous event or be frustrated because you feel you cannot help directly in the rescue work.
* Take steps to promote your own physical and emotional healing by healthy eatin
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
524. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:26 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
523. Torito
3:26 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Amanda.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
521. Torito
3:23 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
520. Grothar
3:23 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
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519. Grothar
3:21 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
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518. barbamz
3:21 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 503. ScottLincoln:


You might be surprised to learn that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic actually make up a small portion of the global sea surface anomalies. Meanwhile, in the Pacific...



Impressive map. Thanks Scott!
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517. Torito
3:20 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
We now have AMANDA.

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516. Grothar
3:19 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
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515. pcola57
3:18 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 513. barbamz:

Yesterday evening near Fulda/mid Germany which isn't too far away from my place. Not bad, hmm?


From severe-weather-eu-site: Spectacular supercell with CG lightning strike near Fulda, Germany last night! Source: @suntrance via twitter.
More pics from this storm chaser.


Wow..
Awesome pics barb..
Thanks for sharing.. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
514. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:16 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 501. Grothar:




Today's run doesn't show any system


It's there just not as strong as yesterdays run. At least we are seeing the time table move up.

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513. barbamz
3:14 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Yesterday evening near Fulda/mid Germany which isn't too far away from my place. Not bad, hmm? I've tracked this cell on my screen because it was only a near miss to our little weekend house further south.


From severe-weather-eu-site: Spectacular supercell with CG lightning strike near Fulda, Germany last night! Source: @suntrance via twitter.
More pics from this storm chaser.
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512. barbamz
3:06 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Roundup: Disasters uproot 144 mln people in Horn of Africa in 4 years: report
Xinhua News Agency May 22, 2014 7:37pm, by Njoroge Kaburo

NAIROBI, May 22 (Xinhua) -- About 144 million people have been displaced in the Horn of Africa region between 2008 and 2012 by sudden-onset disasters around the world, a joint report launched in Nairobi on Thursday revealed.

The new report by the United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) and the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) said thousands of people in the Horn of Africa are at risk of being displaced across borders as extreme weather increases in frequency.

"As extreme weather increases in intensity thousands are at risk of being displaced. Many of the displaced receive some assistance, but the support varies. There is a need for more predictive protection and assistance. We must start in the hardest affected regions," Nina M. Birkeland of the NRC said in Nairobi.

The report said the vast majority of those displaced in the past four years fled from floods, storms and wildfires and others effects of climate change. Most remain in their countries as internally displaced people, but many also flee across the borders to other countries.

The report called for more attention to the situation of individuals who are displaced to another country because of climate change and disasters in the Horn of Africa.

"Drought forces people to leave their homes in Somalia and Ethiopia and flee to Kenya, Egypt or Yemen. Most of those fleeing are pastoralists, small scale farmers and agro-pastoralists," said the report.

The report showed that natural disasters usually interact with ethnic and politically based discrimination. For instance, armed conflict and lack of humanitarian access in Somalia played an important role in escalating the effects of the drought and famine. ...


Whole article see link above.
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511. ricderr
3:05 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
The California Nino is in full swing. Great sign for potential drought relief in the fall.

that is a real interesting article,,,but i want the seasonal prediction system now :-)

The regional air-sea coupled phenomenon seems to be analogous to the well-known El Niño/La Niña in the equatorial Pacific Ocean but with much smaller time and space scales. Therefore it is named California Niño/Niña. This new phenomenon is considered to give significant impacts on marine ecosystems regional weather, and agriculture along the west coast of North America. It is, therefore, useful to develop a seasonal prediction system by use of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model which resolves the California Niño/Niña. The effort in this direction is under way.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
510. TimSoCal
3:00 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 503. ScottLincoln:

You might be surprised to learn that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic actually make up a small portion of the global sea surface anomalies. Meanwhile, in the Pacific...


The California Nino is in full swing. Great sign for potential drought relief in the fall.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
509. islander101010
2:57 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
atlantic potential two weeks away plenty of time for the gulf to warm up. i expect a strong tropical storm to make landfall in the vicinity of the big bend fl area.
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508. ricderr
2:57 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Today's run doesn't show any system




NOOOOOOOOOO.....long range models are always 100 percent accurate...this must be a bad run....someone had better do it again!!!!!!

half of tampa has already boarded up
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507. SFLWeatherman
2:55 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
We now have Tropical Storm AMANDA
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506. JNTenne
2:55 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
"... Even a quiet hurricane season can be devastating
Quiet hurricane seasons with below-average activity can still produce major hurricanes that cause massive devastation. The five seasons that CSU lists as analogue years for 2014 produced five hurricanes that had their names retired, including one that killed 8,000 people in Cuba (Flora of 1963) and one that killed over 400 people in Texas and Louisiana (Audrey of 1957.) Even if an El Niño does develop this year, that doesn't mean it will be a quiet season. Recall the El Niño year of 2004, when four major hurricanes pounded the U.S.--Ivan, Charlie, Jeanne, and Frances. Those of you in Hurricane Alley should prepare for the 2014 season the same way you would for a predicted hyperactive season, and be ready for the Storm of the Century to hit your location....

Jeff Masters

As always, very appreciative of the time you put into your articles Dr. Jeff! but I think that this should have been the lead paragraph..
Happy Friday everyone!
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505. MahFL
2:55 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
I just noticed, it's raining in the TX panhandle.
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504. MrNatural
2:55 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 498. ScottLincoln:


No, that's not the reason.


and.........then the reason would be?
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503. ScottLincoln
2:54 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 456. rjsenterp:

NOAA predicts sea surface temperatures at or below normal. So much for global warming.

You might be surprised to learn that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic actually make up a small portion of the global sea surface anomalies. Meanwhile, in the Pacific...
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502. barbamz
2:53 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
System outage leaves NWS, NOAA all wet
Sterling : VA : USA | May 22, 2014 at 7:32 PM PDT, By Mike Sarzo

Opinion
The National Weather Service has played a vital role in forecasting weather in the United States for well over a century, starting from its beginnings as the Weather Bureau of the United States in 1870.

With all the technology weather forecasters have to detect and warn people about major weather events, many people rely on the NWS to get the weather right and to warn people with enough lead time to ensure their safety.

That’s why reports that the warning system the NWS employs failed to warn people in the Washington metropolitan area of severe thunderstorms that ripped through the area on Thursday was so disconcerting.

The Washington Post reported that the NWS issued a severe thunderstorm warning for golf ball-sized hail and winds over 60 mph at 4:12 p.m. EDT, but the warning never made it to the public through NWS websites, text message alerts, mobile alerts and other methods. Online radar imagery through smart phones and Web browsers was also unavailable, making it difficult to track the storm.

From my office in suburban Maryland, I saw people looking outside and seeing another thunderstorm as it happened. I heard people react with surprise after this unexpected event so soon after an early-morning storm that made the commute treacherous for many people driving or taking public transportation.

According to an email obtained by the Capital Weather Gang, The Washington Post’s team of weather forecasters and writers, the NWS warning systems went down between approximately 4:06 p.m. and 4:37 p.m. ...


Whole article see link above.
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501. Grothar
2:53 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 446. GTstormChaserCaleb:





Today's run doesn't show any system

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500. ricderr
2:52 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
duplicate...info already posted
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499. ricderr
2:51 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
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498. ScottLincoln
2:51 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 486. Dakster:



It is because of all the ice melt from land going into the water...

No, that's not the reason.
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497. Bluestorm5
2:49 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Now we got 40 mph Tropical Storm Amanda

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM AMANDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 108.4W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST. AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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496. MahFL
2:49 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 477. StormTrackerScott:

84 and climbing pretty steadily here in Altamonte Springs. The heat hits you as soon as you open the door to go outside as the humidity is high this morning.




We did hit 95 yesterday, and it feels even hotter today.
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495. MahFL
2:44 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 456. rjsenterp:

NOAA predicts sea surface temperatures at or below normal. So much for global warming.


Don't be silly, that does not mean elsewhere can't be warmer.
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494. MrNatural
2:44 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 486. Dakster:



It is because of all the ice melt from land going into the water...


Good answer.
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493. StormTrackerScott
2:42 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 489. TimSoCal:



Yep, that's also why we're in such a nasty drought. That ridge blocked the normal storm tracks, so we really only got one good rain event in the entire wet season.


PDO switch to positive and this strong PDO signal should give this upcoming El-Nino a boost. Last several El-Nino episodes featured a mostly negative PDO which kept those El-Nino's weak to moderate.
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492. Bluestorm5
2:39 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Looked at ECMWF from the last 2 runs on WxBell and AccuWeather... not impressive. Basically not buying TD1 strengthening into a strong storm.
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491. ricderr
2:34 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Friday, May 23, 2014, 6:56 AM - A tropical depression swirling in the Pacific is expected to strengthen to become a tropical storm Friday.

According to the U.S. National Hurricane Center, the depression is centred about 1,000 km south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and is moving in a west-northwesterly motion.

There are currently no coastal watches or warnings in place and the tropical depression is posing no threat to land.
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490. ricderr
2:32 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
rumors floating around the net the one-e will be a tropical storm this afternoon
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489. TimSoCal
2:28 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 484. SouthTampa:


Wasn't the NW under the "death ridge" for most of the winter. That could explain the anomalies in SST there.


Yep, that's also why we're in such a nasty drought. That ridge blocked the normal storm tracks, so we really only got one good rain event in the entire wet season.
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488. ricderr
2:27 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
I hate the dry season. Especially this year.


fire danger already high.....gonna be real bad after three hot months and no rain
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487. wunderkidcayman
2:27 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 479. ncstorm:

hello All..I see we may some tropical cyclone action coming..

CMC..last frame..





Yeah it's been hinting on that for a few days now
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486. Dakster
2:26 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 456. rjsenterp:

NOAA predicts sea surface temperatures at or below normal. So much for global warming.


It is because of all the ice melt from land going into the water...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
485. TimSoCal
2:26 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 478. StormTrackerScott:
Nino 1&2 about to cross the 1.5C mark. Nino 3.4 has rebounded after the 0Z glitch again this morning.



That glitch is so weird. Happened on the same update it did yesterday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
484. SouthTampa
2:26 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 452. ricderr:

you can see that the enso regions are warming....but i would love to read why the northwest pacific has such anomalies....i also would like to hear what the ramifications this means to sea life





Wasn't the NW under the "death ridge" for most of the winter. That could explain the anomalies in SST there.
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483. ricderr
2:25 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
The North Pacific anomalies are probably due to remarkably persistent ridging and less cold air than usual during the fall and winter.


you're probably right
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482. TimSoCal
2:25 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting 462. Torito:


I hope you guys get some then, you probably need it down there...

GEM has the system heading your way till about 150 hours out, right here:



However... after that, it just does a wild swing to the west..



GFS Keeps it straight the whole way through the run, but this time, it appears to weaken too much before it gets to you...



You might be out of luck with this system, but we will see..


I hate the dry season. Especially this year.
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481. ricderr
2:24 PM GMT on May 23, 2014

it would be good news to get 1Es energy into the southwest.


no one would complain......except the areas that were missed :-)
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480. georgevandenberghe
2:21 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Quoting ricderr:
you can see that the enso regions are warming....but i would love to read why the northwest pacific has such anomalies....i also would like to hear what the ramifications this means to sea life





The North Pacific anomalies are probably due to remarkably persistent ridging and less cold air than usual during the fall and winter.
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479. ncstorm
2:20 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
hello All..I see we may some tropical cyclone action coming..

CMC..last frame..



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478. StormTrackerScott
2:16 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
Nino 1&2 about to cross the 1.5C mark. Nino 3.4 has rebounded after the 0Z glitch again this morning.

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477. StormTrackerScott
2:12 PM GMT on May 23, 2014
84 and climbing pretty steadily here in Altamonte Springs. The heat hits you as soon as you open the door to go outside as the humidity is high this morning.

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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