Super Typhoon Haiyan: Strongest Landfalling Tropical Cyclone on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:58 PM GMT on November 07, 2013

Super Typhoon Haiyan has made landfall. According to PAGASA, Haiyan came ashore at 4:40 am local time (20:40 UTC) November 7, 2013 near Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar. Fourty minutes before landfall, Guiuan reported sustained 10-minute average winds of 96 mph, with a pressure of 977 mb. Contact has since been lost with the city. Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph. The next JTWC intensity estimate, for 00Z UTC November 8, about three hours after landfall, put the top winds at 185 mph. Averaging together these estimates gives a strength of 190 mph an hour after landfall. Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.


Figure 3. Radar image of Super Typhoon Haiyan shortly after landfall, at 6:14 am local time on November 8, 2013. Image credit: http://climatex.ph.

Officially, here are the strongest tropical cyclones in world history:

Super Typhoon Nancy (1961), 215 mph winds, 882 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 2 in Japan, killing 191 people.
Super Typhoon Violet (1961), 205 mph winds, 886 mb pressure. Made landfall in Japan as a tropical storm, killing 2 people.
Super Typhoon Ida (1958), 200 mph winds, 877 mb pressure. Made landfall as a Cat 1 in Japan, killing 1269 people.
Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013), 195 mph winds, 895 mb pressure. Made landfall in the Philippines at peak strength.
Super Typhoon Kit (1966), 195 mph winds, 880 mb. Did not make landfall.
Super Typhoon Sally (1964), 195 mph winds, 895 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 4 in the Philippines.

However, it is now recognized (Black 1992) that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong. The strongest reliably measured tropical cyclones were all 5 mph weaker than Haiyan, with 190 mph winds—the Western Pacific's Super Typhoon Tip of 1979, the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, and the Atlantic's Hurricane Allen of 1980. All three of these storms had a hurricane hunter aircraft inside of them to measure their top winds. Haiyan's winds were estimated using only satellite images, making its intensity estimate of lower confidence. We don't have any measurements of Haiyan's central pressure, but it may be close to the all-time record of 870 mb set by Super Typhoon Tip. The Japan Meteorological Agency estimated Haiyan's central pressure at 895 mb at 18 UTC (1 pm EST) November 7, 2013. This would make Haiyan the 12th strongest tropical cyclone on record globally, as far as lowest pressure goes.


Extreme damage likely in the Philippines
Wind damage in Guiuan (population 47,000) must have been catastrophic, perhaps the greatest wind damage any city on Earth has endured from a tropical cyclone in the past century. A massive storm surge must have also caused great destruction along a 20-mile swath to the north of where the eye hit, where Project NOAH was predicting a 17’ (5.3 meter) storm tide. Wind damage will also be extreme in Tacloban, population 221,000, the capital of the province of Leyte. Much of Tacloban is at elevations less than ten feet, and the most recent storm surge forecast made by the Philippines' Project NOAH calls for a storm tide (the combined height of the surge plus the tide) of 12’ (3.6 meters) in Tacloban. The northern (strong) part of Haiyan’s eyewall is now battering the southern part of the city. Haiyan’s winds, rains, and storm surge will cause widespread devastation throughout the Central Philippines during the day, though the storm’s fast forward speed of 25 mph will cut down on the total rainfall amounts, compared to typical typhoons that affect the Philippines. Hopefully, this will substantially recede the death toll due to flash flooding, which is usually the biggest killer in Philippine typhoons. Once Haiyan exits into the South China Sea, it will steadily decay, due to colder waters and higher wind shear. However, it will still be a formidable Category 1 or 2 typhoon when it hits Vietnam and Laos, and I expect that the 12+ inches of rain that the storm will dump on those nations will make it a top-five most expensive natural disaster in their history. Early on Thursday, Haiyan hit the island of Kayangel, 24 kilometres north of Palau's capital, Koror. Damage was heavy, with many homes damaged or destroyed, but there were no injuries among the island’s 69 inhabitants.

Links
Visible satellite landfall loop from the Korean COMS-1 satellite, courtesy of Scott Bachmeier of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group.
Impressive videos from Tacloban from Marcjan Maloon
Twitter updates from Japan meteorologist Robert Speta.
Storm Chaser James Reynolds on Twitter, from Tacloban, Leyte.
Storm Chaser Jim Edds on Twitter, from Tacloban, Leyte.
Webcam in Malay, Philippines
Webcam in Boracay, Philippines

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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628. Kilks
7:55 AM GMT on November 16, 2013
The real landfall of STY Haiyan was along Tolosa, Leyte @ 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) 08 Nov 2013. By looking at the many satellite loops of this howler, Guiuan was on the Northern edge of the EYE. Although, I agree that GUIUAN was right on the Northern and NE Eyewall where the 190mph winds may have been observed, I won't agree that this was a landfall area, considering it's only a very narrow land area, similar to a small island.

The PAGASA bulletin issued at 5am where the position was at 4:00 AM --> This was actually the result of their extrapolated location from the 2am satellite/radar fixes -- where they placed the eye over at Guiuan, where in reality its a little south.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
627. hydrus
5:45 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 617. StormTrackerScott:


Euro has it though and really dumps a good bit of snow across NC & VA.

Very sharp trough.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
626. opal92nwf
3:57 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 592. ricderr:
I agree, didn't look like EF-4 tornado damage like some were thinking. Maybe it weakened that much by the time it hit Tacloban


those yesterday who were equating hurricane straight line winds with tornado winds...well....it's just not smart...they are two completely different types of wind events and should not be compared to each other

one thing you learn from here is you have to filter the comments...there's as much BS as science posted and unfortunately all seem to be reported as science...one blogger who it seems people take as a responsible blogger stated that whole cities would be totally wiped out....well..so far i've only seen reported 4 deaths and although areas have major damage...wiped out is an overstatement that borders.....well it doesn't border...it is irresponsible

Good point. I sort of forgot about that whole tornado vs hurr winds argument when I posted that, but still, Andrew was a lower end Cat 5 compared to Haiyan, and did this.

I was thinking that Haiyan's wind damage would be worse than that^^ just cause of the simple fact of it being that much stronger.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
625. Doss2k
3:54 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
I am wearing shorts today here in NC. November is still pretty early to be talking snow around here. I expect it to be a worse winter than normal this year, but I put no stock in snow forecasts in this area over about 24 hours out. Been fooled enough times!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
624. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:50 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
623. RTSplayer
3:50 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 615. StormTrackerScott:


I agree the guy is a troll who always makes post of nonsense to try and start up trouble on the blog. Best to ignore and move on as you thave taught me to do. Also CNN is reporting that whole town are gone near the first landfall but I have yet to see these images. Looks as if the 195mph where confined only to the eyewall itself.



195mph would only appear in the eyewall, and most likely only in the strongest cells and so-called "mini-whirls". These winds simply do not happen over a 50 to 100 mile wide area. It only happens in like a 10 to 20 mile wide band, and only in the most powerful cells. Now the entire eye wall most likely had category 5 winds, but you would not expect to find the 195 mile winds in every quadrant, nor in any "outer eye wall" features, assuming a double eye wall.

I didn't see a double eye wall on this storm at landfall. I see more or less a storm dead center between eye wall replacement cycles, making landfall at peak intensity.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
622. pcola57
3:49 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 592. ricderr:
I agree, didn't look like EF-4 tornado damage like some were thinking. Maybe it weakened that much by the time it hit Tacloban


those yesterday who were equating hurricane straight line winds with tornado winds...well....it's just not smart...they are two completely different types of wind events and should not be compared to each other

one thing you learn from here is you have to filter the comments...there's as much BS as science posted and unfortunately all seem to be reported as science...one blogger who it seems people take as a responsible blogger stated that whole cities would be totally wiped out....well..so far i've only seen reported 4 deaths and although areas have major damage...wiped out is an overstatement that borders.....well it doesn't border...it is irresponsible


Quoting 596. Patrap:
I can't believe this is happening on a Friday, but I totally agree with ricderr.


; )


I agree with both ricderr and Pat..
Some blogger's ego's are bigger than they carry around..
All in all however,the blog yesterday was a very informative,serious, and concerned..
Hat's off to Dr. Masters blog.. :)

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
621. RTSplayer
3:44 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 590. win1gamegiantsplease:
I don't know if it can be proven, but looking at the damage photographs, I highly doubt Camille had 190 moh winds in MS. With 909 mb it probably was a Cat-5, just not that strong.


They know based on other evidence what the wind speeds were.

There were direct measurements of the wind, though the gauges eventually broke.

Also there were photos of the wave striations/furrows for Camille, I think, which only happens in the upper range of category 5, which I think Dr. Masters discussed on the site a time or two.

Camille was a smaller storm than this "Yolanda", so it could have the same wind speed while having a higher pressure.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
620. Neapolitan
3:44 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 606. ncstorm:


well, lets not harp on the bloggers with all the blame..you got the national media and several well known respected meterologists proclaiming the storm as a historical event and strongest on record, from those said view points of scientific community one would assume there will be catastrophic damage..personally..I just scrolled through the comments here as I have heard this through every typhoon that nuclear disasters will happen or heavy casualties because people over there arent aware that a typhoon that they see as a common occurrence is heading for them..its the blog..if you dont like it, move to the next comment..
It's quite accurate to state that Haiyan's landfall was indeed both a historical event and the strongest landfalling storm on record, so any meteorologists who said that, including Dr. Masters, shouldn't and can't be faulted. Rather, it's laypeople both here and elsewhere misrepresenting (perhaps intentionally) the words of those mets by repeatedly claiming that Haiyan would "strip entire cities and towns down to the slab", "likely kill thousands", and "permanently rearrange the geography of the Philippines". As you noted, it happens on every online forum with virtually every event. Which is why, as I noted, it's best to just let things play out and see what happens. As Samuel Clemens famously said, it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.

;-)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
619. RTSplayer
3:40 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 564. barbamz:


Here is the video of the first report (see posts #552 and #562 above) about the situation in Tacloban which just was aired (in local language, but the pictures are enough to understand).


You figure it was the wind that picked those cars and trucks up and stacked them on one another, or was the water like 5 feet higher a few hours earlier?

I thought I also saw a metal utility pole down. Those things take insane amounts of force to down, because it has got to shear the bolts that hold it to the foundation.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
618. txag91met
3:40 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 590. win1gamegiantsplease:
I don't know if it can be proven, but looking at the damage photographs, I highly doubt Camille had 190 moh winds in MS. With 909 mb it probably was a Cat-5, just not that strong.


It did. 909 mb at landfall over Mississippi.

It was clearly a cat 5.

One day one of these storms is going to hit Texas/Florida.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
617. StormTrackerScott
3:36 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 609. ncstorm:
I see the GFS has dropped the snow potential for the mid atlantic..figures



Euro has it though and really dumps a good bit of snow across NC & VA.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
616. NEwxguy
3:34 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 609. ncstorm:
I see the GFS has dropped the snow potential for the mid atlantic..figures


And tomorrow it will back to the blizzard of the century.I've seen forecast up here covering dry to wet to white.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
615. StormTrackerScott
3:33 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 606. ncstorm:


well, lets not harp on the bloggers with all the blame..you got the national media and several well known respected meterologists proclaiming the storm as a historical event and strongest on record, from those said view points of scientific community one would assume there will be catastrophic damage..personally..I just scrolled through the comments here as I have heard this through every typhoon that nuclear disasters will happen or heavy casualties because people over there arent aware that a typhoon that they see as a common occurrence is heading for them..its the blog..if you dont like it, move to the next comment..


I agree the guy is a troll who always makes post of nonsense to try and start up trouble on the blog. Best to ignore and move on as you thave taught me to do. Also CNN is reporting that whole town are gone near the first landfall but I have yet to see these images. Looks as if the 195mph where confined only to the eyewall itself.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
614. hydrus
3:31 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 609. ncstorm:
I see the GFS has dropped the snow potential for the mid atlantic..figures

The mets have said not to pay into the models just yet. They will change considerably run to run for the next couple of days. The Euro is the most aggressive with the snow event.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
613. RTSplayer
3:30 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 525. FunnelVortex:
The eye did reorganize a bit.



That's insane.

It never dropped below mid level category 5 the entire time.

Just seeing a storm get to 165MPH is relatively rare among all TC, but to see one hit land at 195mph, and stay above 165mph for basically 12 hours of land interaction is almost unbelievable.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
612. LargoFl
3:30 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
611. LargoFl
3:28 PM GMT on November 08, 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL LOW IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RAIN OR SNOW. IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO IDENTIFY
SPECIFIC THREATS AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
610. LargoFl
3:26 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
An average of eight or nine tropical cyclones make landfall in the Philippines each year. Only six have affected the country this year, compared with the record of 19 that smashed into the coast in 1993.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
609. ncstorm
3:23 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
I see the GFS has dropped the snow potential for the mid atlantic..figures

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
608. LargoFl
3:23 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
948 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-082000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
948 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2013

.NOW...
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS INDIAN RIVER COUNTY NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST AND ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 70S FROM LEESBURG TO DAYTONA BEACH AND FROM 75 TO 80
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS OVER 10
FEET IN GULF STREAM. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. ROUGH SURF AND A STRONG SOUTHWARD FLOWING LONG SHORE
CURRENT WILL POSE A RISK TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF AT EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$

15
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
607. LargoFl
3:21 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 603. troelsnguyen:


Hope not. Everyone here is preparing with sandbags on the roofs etc. Not a lot of rain this past week, but we are preparing for flood. (Da Nang, Hoi An area)
good luck over there..stay safe.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
606. ncstorm
3:21 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 592. ricderr:
I agree, didn't look like EF-4 tornado damage like some were thinking. Maybe it weakened that much by the time it hit Tacloban


those yesterday who were equating hurricane straight line winds with tornado winds...well....it's just not smart...they are two completely different types of wind events and should not be compared to each other

one thing you learn from here is you have to filter the comments...there's as much BS as science posted and unfortunately all seem to be reported as science...one blogger who it seems people take as a responsible blogger stated that whole cities would be totally wiped out....well..so far i've only seen reported 4 deaths and although areas have major damage...wiped out is an overstatement that borders.....well it doesn't border...it is irresponsible


well, lets not harp on the bloggers with all the blame..you got the national media and several well known respected meterologists proclaiming the storm as a historical event and strongest on record, from those said view points of scientific community one would assume there will be catastrophic damage..personally..I just scrolled through the comments here as I have heard this through every typhoon that nuclear disasters will happen or heavy casualties because people over there arent aware that a typhoon that they see as a common occurrence is heading for them..its the blog..if you dont like it, move to the next comment..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
605. LargoFl
3:19 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
a neighbor of mine grew up there..he says the people there are used to hurricanes,getting hit just about every year he said..even though this one was very bad they know how to hunker down and wait it out..he prays not too many killed or injured...he also is looking at the video's posted on the web..guess maybe he is right..those folks are way more prepared for big storms than we are here in the states..if that storm hit florida geez...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
604. daddyjames
3:18 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Good morning from Central OK,

Things here are beautiful, cool and sunny. With a cold, but dry, front moving through next week.

The pictures and videos coming out from the Philippines are heart-breaking. The good thing seems that, overall, the casualties seem to be low and a result primarily of being ignorant of the seriousness of the situation.

Before its misinterpreted - ignorance is nether good nor bad. It simply is a lack of knowledge. It appears that many in the Philippines took appropriate actions to minimize risks to themselves.

Thoughts and prayers for the Philippines as they respond to and recover from yet another onslaught from nature. Something they are all too familiar with.

To those in the Philippines, happy to hear that you and yours have come out relatively unscathed.

Have a good day, and count your blessings - wherever you may be.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
603. troelsnguyen
3:18 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 584. skycycle:


Green beginning to pop up again on those shots, storm seems to be intensifying once more - bad news for Vietnam :/


Hope not. Everyone here is preparing with sandbags on the roofs etc. Not a lot of rain this past week, but we are preparing for flood. (Da Nang, Hoi An area)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
602. fireflymom
3:17 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
And the  tornadic winds are twisting in a tight spiral.
Quoting 595. Patrap:
Comparing Hurricane winds to Tornado winds dont relate in any way. A hurricane Waxes and Wanes over a single point. With Max Gust sustained, then they tail off before the next.

I mean, a Tornado is a constant force on a smaller "area" by a factor of a Million in a Major.

If you think it does relate..well,carry on.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
601. LargoFl
3:15 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
600. Neapolitan
3:14 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
I would imagine that, as almost always happens when a natural disaster strikes, it'll turn out that the death and destruction Haiyan caused is considerably worse than the early (and overly optimistic) projections we're hearing now, but nowhere nearly as bad as the most dire, apocalyptic proclamations some made yesterday. IOW, it's usually not a good idea to wildly guess at body counts and dollar amounts either before or immediately after a storm. Just wait a while; the true scope will emerge soon enough...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
599. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:12 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
30W heading towards Andaman Sea..

India Meteorological Department
17:30 PM IST November 8 2013
================================

The low pressure area over Tenasserim coast and neighborhood would move westwards and emerge over Andaman sea during next 24 hours and may become well marked thereafter.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
598. CybrTeddy
3:09 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 585. opal92nwf:

I agree, didn't look like EF-4 tornado damage like some were thinking. Maybe it weakened that much by the time it hit Tacloban?

Nevertheless, we will continue analyzing the latest pictures and video.


We haven't seen the full extent of the damage yet, everything so far to me indicates that it was still at least a 175mph storm by the time it hit Tacloban. Guiuan looks like it got hit with the worst winds of at least 190mph, we've still yet to hear from that area as far as I'm aware.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
597. LargoFl
3:09 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
fronts pushing east..its the end of Our tropical season...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
596. Patrap
3:09 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
I can't believe this is happening on a Friday, but I totally agree with ricderr.


; )
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
595. Patrap
3:08 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Comparing Hurricane winds to Tornado winds dont relate in any way. A hurricane Waxes and Wanes over a single point. With Max Gust sustained, then they tail off before the next.

I mean, a Tornado is a constant force on a smaller "area" by a factor of a Million.

If you think it does relate..well,carry on.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
594. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:07 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB01-2013
17:30 PM IST November 8 2013
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved westwards and now lays centered near 8.0N 55.0E, about 540 km southeast of Ras Binnah, Somalia, 510 km south southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 2000 km west southwest of Minicoy (Lakshadweep).

The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours. It would move nearly westwards and cross Somalia coast between 7.0N and 9.0N by Sunday evening.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
593. LargoFl
3:06 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
592. ricderr
3:06 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
I agree, didn't look like EF-4 tornado damage like some were thinking. Maybe it weakened that much by the time it hit Tacloban


those yesterday who were equating hurricane straight line winds with tornado winds...well....it's just not smart...they are two completely different types of wind events and should not be compared to each other

one thing you learn from here is you have to filter the comments...there's as much BS as science posted and unfortunately all seem to be reported as science...one blogger who it seems people take as a responsible blogger stated that whole cities would be totally wiped out....well..so far i've only seen reported 4 deaths and although areas have major damage...wiped out is an overstatement that borders.....well it doesn't border...it is irresponsible
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
591. EyEtoEyE
3:04 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Anahiliation , to catastrophic , back to anahiliation , welcome to Yolanda ' s hellish onslaught , Hell hath like a woman scorned , the she devil will do whatever she wants , when she wants , God help those in the way of this MONSTER! Just think of how bad this could have been , this season , here on the Atlantic side , just be happy the forecasters , got it all wrong this year , but just wait till next season ! God speed to the all in the way of Yolanda the MONSTER!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
590. win1gamegiantsplease
3:03 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
I don't know if it can be proven, but looking at the damage photographs, I highly doubt Camille had 190 moh winds in MS. With 909 mb it probably was a Cat-5, just not that strong.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
589. JNTenne
3:00 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 580. Sfloridacat5:


That's what 150+ mph winds do to an area. You won't be standing outside in those conditions if you want to stay alive.
A lot of people really don't understand what those kind of winds can do (except for the people living in tornado alley).
Having experienced microbursts I cannot imagine a strong microburst lasting for hours.. truly inconceivable.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
588. GatorWX
2:58 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 585. opal92nwf:

I agree, didn't look like EF-4 tornado damage like some were thinking. Maybe it weakened that much by the time it hit Tacloban?

Nevertheless, we will continue analyzing the latest pictures and video.


We likely haven't heard from those folks yet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
587. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:57 PM GMT on November 08, 2013


Depression ARB01-2013 (90A) southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
586. Andrebrooks
2:54 PM GMT on November 08, 2013

Anticyclone over west Carribean.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
585. opal92nwf
2:53 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 568. Sfloridacat5:


Some pretty good footage there. Some serious winds when the palm tree goes down. Also, serious flooding with the surge.

Some of the videos being shown, it just looks like a rainy day with maybe 30 mph winds and 3 foot waves. Not really representative of a 200 mph Super Typhoon.


I agree, didn't look like EF-4 tornado damage like some were thinking. Maybe it weakened that much by the time it hit Tacloban?

Nevertheless, we will continue analyzing the latest pictures and video.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
584. skycycle
2:45 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 579. Patrap:


Green beginning to pop up again on those shots, storm seems to be intensifying once more - bad news for Vietnam :/
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
583. LesBonsTemps
2:39 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Bedtime here in Vietnam as well. Expect to see some squally weather here tomorrow, well southwest of center. Was out on bike today and water was still coursing over some roadways 20 hours after end of TD 30. One entrepreneur in town (Nha Trang) had a sign up: "Flooding tour - $20."

Note: I believe area to north of us which will get more of a hit has had much less rain.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
582. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:38 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAIYAN (T1330)
21:00 PM JST November 8 2013
===================================

Sulu Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Haiyan (930 hPa) located at 11.8N 120.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 19 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.0N 112.7E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.6N 106.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Gulf of Tonkin
72 HRS: 20.1N 103.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Laos
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
581. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:38 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
first depression of the year forms in the Arabian Sea..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB01-2013
11:30 AM IST November 8 2013
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over southwest Arabian Sea and lay centered near 8.0N 56.5E, about 680 km east southeast of Ras Binnah, Somalia, 570 km southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 1830 km west southwest of Minicoy (Lakshadweep).

The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs. It would move west northwestwards and cross Somalia coast between latitude 8.0N and 10.0N by Sunday evening.

According to satellite imagery, The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over the area between 6.0N to 13.0N, 51.0E to 58.5E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during the past 24 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -70C. The system shows shear pattern with convection shifted to the west of low level circulation center.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center. The central pressure of the depression is 1006 hPa.

Oceansat-II data at 0200 UTC of November 8 indicates the cyclonic circulation over the region and associated wind speed to be about 10-20 knots to the south and 20-25 knots to the north of the system center. A ship located near 8.0n and 58.0e reported mean sea level pressure of 1010 hPa and surface wind of 15 knots. At 0600 UTC of November 8. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 12.0n and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system center. Hence upper level divergence is favorable for intensification. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased further in past 24 hrs. The sea surface temperature is about 28-30c and ocean thermal energy is about 80-100 kj/cm2. The sea

Height anomaly is about 30 cm around system center. However the sea area close to Somalia coast is colder and ocean thermal energy is less than 50 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is about 10-20 knots (low to moderate). The Madden Jullian Oscillation index lies over phase 2 with amplitude approximately 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden Jullian Oscillation would continue in phase 2 during next 3 days, but with lower amplitude.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
580. Sfloridacat5
2:37 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
Quoting 571. AussieStorm:


Super Typhoon #haiyan #yolanda strongest storm hit my city #Ormoc.



Both photo's from @zhayns2000
damages #Haiyan is the worst storm ever hit my home place #ormoc


That's what 150+ mph winds do to an area. You won't be standing outside in those conditions if you want to stay alive.
A lot of people really don't understand what those kind of winds can do (except for the people living in tornado alley).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
579. Patrap
2:36 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
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578. largeeyes
2:33 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
This thing is like a tornado over a tsunami...incredible.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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