Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan Headed Towards the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:05 PM GMT on November 06, 2013

Evacuations are underway in the Philippines Islands as extremely dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan heads west-northwest at 20 mph towards the islands. Haiyan, which is the Chinese word for a petrel seabird, is referred to as "Yolanda" in the Philippines, and became a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds at 12 UTC (7 am EDT) Wednesday. Haiyan became a Cat 5 at an unusually low latitude (7.9°N), but this is not a record. The most southerly Cat 5 on record was Super Typhoon Louise of 1964 (7.3°N), followed by 2012's Super Typhoon Bopha (7.4°N.) Haiyan is the fourth Category 5 storm in the Western Pacific and fifth on Earth so far in 2013. This is the highest number of Cat 5s since 2009, which had four Cat 5s in the Western Pacific and one in the Eastern Pacific. Since 2000, Earth has averaged 4.4 of these mightiest of tropical cyclones per year. The record for Cat 5s in a year is twelve, set in 1997, when an astonishing ten Cat 5s occurred in the Western Pacific. The Atlantic has not had a Category 5 storm since Hurricane Felix of 2007, making the past six years the longest stretch without a Cat 5 since 1981 - 1987.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Haiyan taken at 1:57 UTC November 6, 2013. The islands at the left are part of the Caroline Islands, which recorded sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 15 UTC November 7, 2013. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

Satellite loops show that Haiyan is a spectacular typhoon with a tiny pinhole eye just 9 miles in diameter. A buoy (station 52087) reported a pressure of 956 mb and sustained WNW winds of 67 mph at 1000 UTC (5 am EDT) Tuesday morning in the southern eyewall of Haiyan. With warm waters that extend to great depth, low wind shear, and excellent upper-level outflow, Haiyan will likely stay at Category 4 or 5 strength until landfall occurs between 03 - 06 UTC Friday in the central Philippine islands of Samar or Leyte. The only brake on Haiyan's strength over the next day might be an eyewall replacement cycle, which will be capable of causing a temporary weakening of perhaps 20 mph in the storm's winds.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall from the 06Z November 6, 2013 run of the HWRF model, for the 126-hour period ending at 12Z November 11, 2013. A 100-mile wide swath of 8+ inches of rain (medium dark red colors) is predicted to cross the Central Philippines and Northern Vietnam. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC.

Haiyan a major storm surge threat
The storm surge potential for Haiyan is very concerning, if the typhoon maintains its current forecast track and makes landfall on Leyte Island. This track would push a dangerous storm surge into the funnel-shaped Leyte Gulf, which comes to a point in Tacloban, population 221,000, the capital of the province of Leyte. Much of Tacloban is at elevations less than ten feet, and the experimental storm surge forecasts from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre HyFlux2 model made on November 5 and November 6 have called for a storm surge of 5 - 10 feet (1.6 - 2.9 meters) to hit Tacloban. This model has not been verified for the Philippines, and it is not unreasonable to speculate that the storm surge could be higher along a 20-mile swath of the coast to the north of where the eye hits, if it indeed comes ashore in Leyte. If the eye strikes farther north on Samar Island, this would not generate as high of a storm surge, since there is no triangular-shaped bay there to funnel the waters to a peak. Storm surge forecasts made by the Philippines' Project NOAH at 00 UTC November 6, 2013, are calling for no more than 2 meters (6.6 feet) of surge throughout the Philippines from Haiyan.


Figure 3. Elevation map of Leyte Island (left) and Samar Island (top) in the Philippines. Much of the capital of Leyte, Tacloban, is at an elevation less than 4 meters (13'), red to dark red colors. The predicted path of Haiyan’s eye in the 21 UTC November 6, 2013 Joint Typhoon Warning Center advisory is shown. Image credit: Globalwarmingart.com.

Haiyan the fifth named storm to hit the Philippines in 2013
Haiyan will be the fourth typhoon and fifth named storm to hit the Philippines this year. The others were:

Tropical Storm Rumbia, which hit the island of Samar on June 29 as a tropical storm, killing six.
Typhoon Nari, which hit Luzon on October 11 as a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds, killing five.
Typhoon Utor, which hit Luzon on August 12 as a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds, killing fourteen and causing $25 million in damage.
Typhoon Krosa, which hit northern Luzon on October 31 as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds, killing five and doing $5 million in damage.

The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history. However, that mark was eclipsed just over four months ago, when torrential rains in the wake of Typhoon Trami inundated the capital of Manila and large areas of Luzon, killing 27 people and causing damages estimated at $2.2 billion by Aon Benfield.


Figure 4. Torrential rains, due, in part, to moisture from Typhoon Trami, fell in the Philippines August 18 - 21, 2013, causing massive flooding on Luzon Island that cost $2.2 billion. Twenty-seven people were killed, and 60% of metro Manila was under water at the peak of the flood. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this flood would be the most expensive natural disaster in Philippine history. In this photo, pedicabs and makeshift rafts ferry office workers and pedestrians through flood waters that submerged parts of the financial district of Makati on August 20, 2013 in Makati City south of Manila, Philippines. Image credit: Dondi Tawatao/Getty Images)


Figure 5. Super Typhoon Bopha as seen from the International Space Station on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 - 155 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression 30 a heavy rainfall threat for Southeast Asia
Tropical Depression 30 is making landfall over southern Vietnam, and will bring heavy rains of 8+ inches to portions of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand over the next few days. The storm is expected to dissipate over Southeast Asia by Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Basically all of North Carolina and Virginia would get heavy snow in 6 days if the GFS has it's say on this
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It looks like a big Crispy Cream doughnut
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Such beautiful imagery!

But on the other hand I feel sorry for the Philippines, as they are going to get hit by a CAT5.
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GFS then developes a strong gulf low at 228 to 240 hrs. This certainly looks like El Niño on the Euro and GFS models. Looks as if the southern us and eastern us is trading hurricanes for snowstorms this year
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 585. Ameister12:
Good morning, Folks!

Unbelievable... I don't think it gets more organized than this.


What was it Jeff Morrow said during one of the hurricane coverage tidbits during Katrina?

"It doesn't get any bigger than this."

I would like to reiterate his statement this morning.
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What I would do for a reconnaissance aircraft or two.
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Adjusted and Raw T-numbers have now reached the limit T8.0:
JTWC:
2013NOV07 095700 7.9 891.8 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 18.07 -84.13 EYE 27 IR 93.0 10.03 -129.56 COMBO MTSAT1 16.9

JMA:
2013NOV07 095700 7.9 866.5 4.3 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 18.07 -84.10 EYE 27 IR 95.9 10.05 -129.63 COMBO MTSAT1 16.9

Except the CIMSS, which has it about 0.5 lower.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 908.3mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 7.5 7.5

Very strong storm indeed.
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Quoting 591. DaveFive:
Hello JeffMasters, I am Dave from San Jose, CA. I do like the tropical weather maps you have on your blog.


Dave, I see, you've got an avatar now. Nice pic!
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Incredible perfect and dangerous!


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Raleigh would infact be shut down if this occurs as shown on the latest GFS. I mean 6 to 10 inches snow with snow reaching the coast!!!
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Hello JeffMasters, I am Dave from San Jose, CA. I do like the tropical weather maps you have on your blog.
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Good morning. Scary times for the poor Philippines! Although Haiyan's current track is more to the north, the latest forecast tracks seem to have shifted to the south. Odd:






James Reynolds (aka typhoonfury), who is "chasing" Haniyan, on Twitter:

James Reynolds %u200F@typhoonfury 1h
Doing recon south of Tacloban, lots of extremely vulnerable coastal communities with no signs of evacuating residents #YolandaPH #Haiyan


Location of Tacloban (very prone to storm surge)Source Wikipedia
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GFS brings heaviest snow to North Carolina since 2010 in 6 days
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06z GFS has a snowstorm for North Carolina to Virginia. Infact some snow may reach the North Carolina coast.
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Quoting 586. Civicane49:
This is insane.



It actually looks better than it did six hours ago. If that's even possible.
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This is insane.

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Good morning, Folks!

Unbelievable... I don't think it gets more organized than this.
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Time is running out for Haiyan to be anything but a Category 5 at landfall.

An eyewall replacement cycle might weaken it (no, it will), but not only do we not know when another one is going to transpire, it will also increase the size of the cyclone significantly and -- ultimately -- lead to greater flood potential over Vietnam in a few days.
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583. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Hayian has made this blog surprisingly active for this time of year at this time of the day.

Hayian at 175 mph right now I believe.


ya. that is what NWS Tiyan gave for wind speed.
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Hayian has made this blog surprisingly active for this time of year at this time of the day.

Hayian at 175 mph right now I believe.
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580. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
165-170 knot winds.. how terrible.
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Good Morning Folks!.............
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Wow.

07/0857 UTC 9.9N 130.0E T8.0/8.0 HAIYAN
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Quoting 566. Caimito:
About 30 miles south of the predicted track ISOUTHER13 is my PWS location.


Well, at least you'll be on the southern side. Probably.

Good luck either way.
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576. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
TXPQ25 KNES 070944
TCSWNP
A. 31W (HAIYAN)
B. 07/0857Z
C. 9.9N
D. 130.0E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T8.0/8.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE (18 C) SURROUNDED BY CDG AND EMBEDDED IN CDG
MAXES OUT THE CF NUMBER AT 7.5 AFTER A PLUS 1.0 ADJUSTMENT. THERE IS A
CLEAR CUT VERY COLD BANDING FEATURE BUT THE WARM EDGE IS TECHNICALLY TOO
COOL TO ADD FOR BF. THEREFORE DT IS HELD AT 7.5. MET AND PT ARE CLEARLY
8.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RAMIREZ
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
575. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAIYAN (T1330)
18:00 PM JST November 7 2013
===================================

Sea East Of Mindanao

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Haiyan (905 hPa) located at 9.8N 130.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.7N 122.7E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Overland Visayas region
45 HRS: 13.1N 115.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.3N 108.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Vietnam
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
*low whistle* Every time I check back on this storm, I think it's gotten as strong as I'm ever going to see it get (as strong as I've seen any storm get in a very long time), only to be proved wrong the next time I check back.

The next few hours are extremely crucial for Haiyan's effect on the Philippines. It has moved a little north of the forecast track lately, and if there's much more northward component to the motion, its initial landfall will be on the SE coast of Samar, rather than on Leyte. This means way less surge potential, lower population density, and a little mountain range (not huge, but enough to be disruptive) to traverse before it impacts any other islands.
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573. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
parts of the Visayas region of the Philippines under Signal warning #4 now

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TYPHOON YOLANDA
5:00 PM PhST November 7 2013
===================================

Typhoon "Yolanda" has accelerated slightly while maintaining its strength as it continues to threaten eastern Visayas

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Yolanda [HAIYAN] (927 hPa) located at 9.7N 130.5E or 543 km southeast of Guiuan eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gustiness up to 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #4

Visayas region
----------------
1. Eastern Samar
2. Samar
3. Leyte
4. Southern Leyte
5. Biliran Island

Signal Warning #3

Visayas region
--------------
1. Northern Samar
2. Masbate
3. Northern Cebu
4. Bantayan island

Mindanao region
-------------------
1. Siargao Island
2. Dinagat Province

Signal Warning #2

Luzon region
--------------
1. Romblon
2. Sorsogon
3. Albay
4. Burias Island

Visayas region
--------------
1. Bohol
2. Negros Occidental
3. Negros Oriental
4. Aklan
5. Capiz
6. Antique
7. Iloilo
8. Guimaras

Mindanao region
-----------------
1. Surigao Del Norte,
2. Surigao Del Sur
3. Agusan del Norte

Signal Warning #1

Luzon region
------------
1. Camarines Norte
2. Camarines Sur
3. Catanduanes
4. Mindoro Provinces
5. Marinduque
6. Northern Palawan including Group
7. Calamian Group of Island
8. Southern Quezon

Visayas region
---------------
1. Siquijor

Mindanao region
---------------
1. Misamis Oriental
2. Agusan del Sur

Additional Information
=========================
Yolanda, after hitting Guiuan or Abuyog, Leyte, is expected to traverse the provinces of Leyte, Biliran, Northern tip of Cebu, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Romblon, Semirara Island, southern part of Mindoro then Busuanga and will exit the Philippine landmass (Friday Night) towards the West Philippine Sea.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10.0-30.0 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of northern Luzon and over the eastern seaboard of central Luzon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3,#2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges which may reach up to 7 meters wave height.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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571. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Still no active cyclones message from the JTWC website..
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Quoting 569. largeeyes:
Too bad we don't have a globalhawk to fly in there....
I think we have a Skyhawk (172) :)
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Too bad we don't have a globalhawk to fly in there....
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CIMSS
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 NOV 2013 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 9:43:02 N Lon : 130:29:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 914.7mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +19.2C Cloud Region Temp : -82.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 113km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.9 degrees

About 0.5 lower than the JTWC and JMA for at least a couple of hours now.
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JTWC
2013NOV07 073000 7.7 898.6 161.0 7.7 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.23 -82.59 EYE 28 IR 86.2 9.72 -130.48 COMBO MTSAT1 15.9

JMA
2013NOV07 073000 7.7 875.0 +4.4 161.0 7.7 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.23 -82.57 EYE 28 IR 84.2 9.73 -130.56 COMBO MTSAT1 15.8

Truly a strong system.
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Quoting 565. KoritheMan:


lol

Are you in Haiyan's path?
About 30 miles south of the predicted track ISOUTHER13 is my PWS location.
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Quoting 564. Caimito:
So that is good for you guys, and bad for me :)


lol

Are you in Haiyan's path?
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Quoting 563. HadesGodWyvern:
2013NOV07 065700 7.6 879.2 +4.4 158.0 7.6 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.54 -81.99 EYE 27 IR 84.2 9.53 -130.72

the raw Dvorak is getting closer.. and closer to that 8.0 number.
So that is good for you guys, and bad for me :)
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563. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2013NOV07 065700 7.6 879.2 +4.4 158.0 7.6 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.54 -81.99 EYE 27 IR 84.2 9.53 -130.72

the raw Dvorak is getting closer.. and closer to that 8.0 number.
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Quoting 561. Civicane49:

wow...thats nearly perfect
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560. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
what the heck happened?!
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559. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

wow that is quite the glitch

(There are no active tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific/Northern Indian Ocean/Central Pacific/ or Southern Hemisphere)
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557. Skyepony (Mod)
I searched all the research recon & such. Didn't find anything.

Quoting 554. Caimito:
I have got to admit it look pretty in the above shots.


Best of luck to you & your PWS. I put a sticker of it in my blog comments to watch.

NOAA dvorak has slight strengthening.

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556. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
895 hPa from China Meteorological Administration now

** WTPQ20 BABJ 070600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY HAIYAN 1330 (1330) INITIAL TIME 070600 UTC
00HR 9.3N 131.1E 895HPA 70M/S
30KTS 380KM
50KTS 160KM
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555. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAIYAN (T1330)
15:00 PM JST November 7 2013
===================================

Sea East Of Mindanao

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Haiyan (905 hPa) located at 9.3N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.4N 123.8E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Overland Visayas region
48 HRS: 13.1N 115.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.3N 108.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Vietnam
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I have got to admit it look pretty in the above shots.

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That's what you call a warm core.

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The convection in the eyewall....not much more perfect than that is possible. Looks even better than Monica!
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I think it's safe to say that Haiyan no longer has any issues with outflow restriction.

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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