Atlantic November Hurricane Outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013

The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no reliable models predicting development of a tropical cyclone during the coming five days. So, are we all done for 2013? Or will this unusually quiet hurricane season spawn a Tropical Storm Melissa? The large-scale circulation pattern over the first half of November favors upward-moving air and an increased chance of tropical storm development over the Atlantic, due to the current positioning of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. By mid-November, this pattern will favor sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, making a late-November tropical storm an unlikely proposition. Wind shear has risen to high levels prohibitive for tropical storm formation over the Gulf of Mexico and the waters near the Bahama Islands, and is expected to remain very high through mid-November, according to the latest run of the GFS model. However, wind shear over the Caribbean is likely to be average to below average for the next two weeks, making tropical storm formation possible there. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support development, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean 0.2°C (0.37°F) above average, and well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 1.) Dry air--which has dominated the tropical Atlantic during the 2013 hurricane season--will continue to make its presence felt over the Caribbean during portions of the coming two weeks, though, reducing the odds of development. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be in the Western Caribbean, where the tail end of a cold front lingers long enough over warm waters to generate some heavy thunderstorms and acquire a spin. A cold front capable of triggering such a disturbance will arrive over the Western Caribbean November 8 - 9, but the GFS and ECMWF models are not suggesting any development from this front. Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.


Figure 1. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on November 1, 2013. The black line marks the 26°C (79°F) isotherm, which is the boundary where tropical storm formation can typically occur. A large portion of the Atlantic is still capable of supporting tropical storm formation, but the Gulf of Mexico is getting marginal.

Climatology of November Atlantic tropical cyclones
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, eleven of the eighteen years (61%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of sixteen November/December storms:

2011: Tropical Storm Sean on November 8
2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms (19%) caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. The most recent November named storm, Tropical Storm Sean of 2011, was an example of this type of storm. However, as I noted in the wake of Hurricane Tomas of November 2010 in my blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, "It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record". Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 2. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Typhoon Krosa takes aim at China
Category 2 Typhoon Krosa is headed towards China's Hainan Island after battering the northern end of Luzon, the main Philippines Island, on Thursday. Krosa hit extreme northeast Luzon near 06 UTC (2 am EDT) on October 31, as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. No injuries or major damage have been reported so far from the storm. Satellite loops show an impressive system with a large eye and plenty of intense thunderstorms. The typhoon will slowly weaken over the weekend as it encounters higher wind shear and cooler waters, before brushing China's Hainan Island as a tropical storm on Sunday.

The GFS and European models predict that the Philippines will see a new tropical storm or typhoon hit the islands on Friday, November 8.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Krosa taken at 05:05 UTC on November 1, 2013. At the time, Krosa was a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

TD 18-E in Eastern Pacific will bring heavy rains to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 18-E has spun up south of Baja, Mexico. Satellite loops show that the depression is poorly organized, but has plenty of intense thunderstorms. Heavy rains from TD 18-E will begin affecting the southern Baja Peninsula and portions of Mainland Mexico to its east on Sunday. The 06Z Friday run of the HWRF model predicted that Mainland Mexico near Manzanillo could see 4 - 8 inches of rain from the system. Moisture from the storm will spread northeastwards into Southwest Texas by Tuesday.

New "Tipping Points" episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT
“Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that began last Saturday on The Weather Channel, airs for the third time on Saturday night, November 2, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", goes on an expedition across Alaska to the North Pole to explore the ticking time bomb of the permafrost melt and the release of tons of carbon dioxide and methane. The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to perform the remarkable triple feat of climbing Mt. Everest and walking to the North and South Poles. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.


Figure 4. "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom watches as scientists take permafrost measurements near the Alaska Pipeline.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 289. CaribBoy:


XD I'm confident the Virgin Islands will get some tonight and tomorrow!


I think you're right. I just had to turn on a few lamps around the house. It seems to have gotten dark all of a sudden. Looked outside and it's coming from the east.

:-)
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Wet roundup on BBC

Storms bring flash floods to Texas
BBC weather video, 1 November 2013 Last updated at 16:57
Two men have been killed in central Texas, after heavy rains caused flash flooding and swollen rivers on Thursday. John Hammond explains on BBC World what caused it and also what's in store for Buenos Aires and Vietnam.
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12z EURO shows a cold arctic air mass moving through the Northeast US states sometime between Nov 7-10 2013 with -10C air temps at 850mb. Could mean some snow with next storm in the Northern New England region if EURO track is correct. GFS is further northwest with the track of the surface low.
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Quoting 295. 1900hurricane:

It did a little bit (about a foot), but not significantly compared to how low the lake is. Most of the heavy rains were just downstream.





Looking at that radar presentation, it looks like the Balcones Escarpment may have intensified the precipitaton in that region.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 13248
Quoting 292. Tribucanes:
Jeff's 20% certainly nipped in the bud a lot of the "possible major" talk about this "possible" Caribbean system. Still think 20% is very low with the conditions this wave will find itself in a little over a day. I think it will be of interest in that time frame and the wishcasters, myself included, will have one last hurrah; and then in all likelihood be disappointed again. But, I personally think this wave has closer to 30-40% at developing.


The NHC says tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days...
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Quoting 294. hydrus:
It was a windy one last night...Added some spook to our Halloween...Gusts to 50 here on the plateau..


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Blue Angels in StL metro today - fueling up before heading to S Bend - for flyover at tomorrow's ND-Navy game. They'll be back in StL in May for an air show. Happy they're flying! Must have been having some fun, a few booms reported.
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loks like tuseday next week marks the start of next system

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Quoting 291. dabirds:
Did Lake Travis come up much from this rain event Austin area bloggers?

It did a little bit (about a foot), but not significantly compared to how low the lake is. Most of the heavy rains were just downstream.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 12007
Quoting 293. Astrometeor:


Today here in Middle TN has looked exactly like your day Blue, high of 70, gentle breeze (lot better than last night), blue skies. Perfect conditions. Also, most trees have switched colors in the last week, everyone except for the oaks, which usually don't.
It was a windy one last night...Added some spook to our Halloween...Gusts to 50 here on the plateau..
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Quoting 260. Bluestorm5:
What was the weather like for you? Today is the most weather perfect day ever in my whole life. You got temperature around 70, clear skies, little mountain breeze, the smell of autumn, and the colors shining around you. Just the best weather you can get. I took few pictures today.


Today here in Middle TN has looked exactly like your day Blue, high of 70, gentle breeze (lot better than last night), blue skies. Perfect conditions. Also, most trees have switched colors in the last week, everyone except for the oaks, which usually don't.
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Jeff's 20% certainly nipped in the bud a lot of the "possible major" talk about this "possible" Caribbean system. Still think 20% is very low with the conditions this wave will find itself in a little over a day. I think it will be of interest in that time frame and the wishcasters, myself included, will have one last hurrah; and then in all likelihood be disappointed again. But, I personally think this wave has closer to 30-40% at developing.
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Did Lake Travis come up much from this rain event Austin area bloggers?
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2014 = 10th anniversary of 2004 storms.

Will this be the year to get that FL cane?

For 2013 it had been the longest FL has gone w/out a hurricane and yet we didn't get one this year.

Somethings gotta give. If not 2014, than I say 2015 at the latest we will see a FL hit.

If this is the longest FL has gone without a hurricane hit, then that would seem to mean that this is the most complacent people in FL have become during such a lull.

We need to watch out..
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Quoting 283. VirginIslandsVisitor:


Good afternoon everyone

It's an 84, feeling like 94, very overcast kind of day over here. No rain yet to speak of so hoping we get some of that system this way too!

Lindy


XD I'm confident the Virgin Islands will get some tonight and tomorrow!
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288. VR46L
Quoting 286. PalmBeachWeather:
Good evening all............A night out for wings with friends..........Have a great evening all.


Have a great evening PBW !
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Quoting 276. PalmBeachWeather:
Just messin' with you Carib... You are one of the good guys


I like humor! Thanks PBW for the compliment I appreciate a lot!
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Good evening all............A night out for wings with friends..........Have a great evening all.
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That view should make you a little less blue, Blue. It's cleared up here after 2 1/2 days of 100% RH. 2.3" total. We hit 59 today, dew point has dropped into mid 40s, pressure on way back up - 29.65". Perfect day for the start of HS playoffs, our team makes the third appearance in a row, not bad for a mainly BB school.

Future is bright if can get an offensive SS. Would love to convince Carlos to forget about DHing for one more year, don't want to see him in StL in pinstripes next summer.
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Quoting 281. VR46L:


He takes the teasing he gets usually really well ..... and I am the worst to him but he never gets mad at me !
He's a good guy..
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Quoting 274. CaribBoy:


Lol :-) No I'm very happy the rain is back again


Good afternoon everyone

It's an 84, feeling like 94, very overcast kind of day over here. No rain yet to speak of so hoping we get some of that system this way too!

Lindy
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Looks like a great night for www.hurricanewings.com
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281. VR46L
Quoting 276. PalmBeachWeather:
Just messin' with you Carib... You are one of the good guys


He takes the teasing he gets usually really well ..... and I am the worst to him but he never gets mad at me !
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Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 7647
Quoting 273. BahaHurican:
No, but we are taking a break from wishcasting it... lol...

Actually I think the Doc's pragmatism has socked us in the gut somewhat. I think we'll still watch it, but with the [already accepted] understanding that we're not likely to see much from it over the weekend, if at all.
LOL............. Knocked down lot's of people......Love it...Still smiling.
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USGS Crews Measure Flooding in Texas
Released: 11/1/2013 4:07:23 PM
USGS field crews are measuring flooding in parts of central Texas following intense rainfall.

USGS crews are measuring high flood flows on the Blanco, Guadalupe, San Marcos, and Colorado Rivers. Record flooding was measured at the streamgage on Onion Creek at Highway 183 in Austin, Texas on Halloween morning around 10 a.m. The creek level was measured at 40.97 feet; 36 feet higher than normal levels. The previous highest measurement of 38 feet occurred more than 90 years ago in 1921. Other areas that are experiencing flooding include Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, Guadalupe, Hays, and Travis Counties.

USGS crews are expected to continue tracking the movement of the floodwaters at the downstream areas of the Colorado, San Marcos, and Guadalupe Rivers, where flooding is expected to peak today. This information is critical for resource managers and emergency responders to help protect life and property. The USGS has coordinated efforts with the National Weather Service, City of Austin, Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority, Lower Colorado River Authority, Comal County, and Guadalupe County.

"In a county of 114,000 residents literally separated by the Guadalupe River and Canyon Reservoir, the USGS flow and gage height monitors are critical in our life safety decisions and response scenarios," said Lynn Lindsay, Emergency Management Coordinator, Comal County, Texas. "Public evacuation thresholds are determined on the real-time data we receive from the USGS gages and our downstream private and public partners are better informed based on the information we gather from USGS streamflow monitoring. Essentially these gages save lives."

There are about 520 USGS-operated streamgages in Texas that measure water levels, streamflow, and rainfall. When flooding occurs, USGS crews make numerous discharge measurements to verify the data USGS provides to federal, state, and local agencies, as well as to the public. ...


Whole article see link above.


Daylight after the first third of the video.
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Just messin' with you Carib... You are one of the good guys
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It's not fun Carib....Not fun at all
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Quoting 271. PalmBeachWeather:
Crib...Are you crying, Are you crying??? There's no crying in baseball...


Lol :-) No I'm very happy the rain is back again
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Quoting 262. Tribucanes:
So has all interest in the tropical wave in the East Caribbean gone by the wayside? Under high shear now, but by the time it's south of Cuba it will be in a low to moderate shear environment. Should be building convection and at least getting interesting once it gets out from under this high shear into conditions that should be conducive. This is a good looking late season wave.
No, but we are taking a break from wishcasting it... lol...

Actually I think the Doc's pragmatism has socked us in the gut somewhat. I think we'll still watch it, but with the [already accepted] understanding that we're not likely to see much from it over the weekend, if at all.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 25742
Quoting 247. CaribBoy:


Maybe someday... if I'm still alive... I'll get that chance again to see a decent storm :-)
Carib...Are you crying, Are you crying??? There's no crying in baseball...
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270. VR46L
Quoting 266. CaribBoy:


YES!!! Now if the weather could stay like this all night.... I would be very very happy!!


this is one of the first times I notice cloud tops in your area

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Quoting 263. VR46L:


Happy ????

:)


I'm sure he still wants his cane.
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Interesting video, Keeper. Thanks for sharing.
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Good afternoon,I hope everyone is having a good day.Today has been amazing my classmates bought me a cake and we celebrate for 2 hours at school.Now I am supposely to go out at night with them and have dinner.I a happy that I am finally 18 :D
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Quoting 263. VR46L:


Happy ????

:)


YES!!! Now if the weather could stay like this all night.... I would be very very happy!!
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Quoting 261. CaribBoy:
Quoting 260. Bluestorm5:
What was the weather like for you? Today is the most weather perfect day ever in my whole life. You got temperature around 70, clear skies, little mountain breeze, the smell of autumn, and the colors shining around you. Just the best weather you can get. I took few pictures today.









Very nice from the both of you.
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Quoting 262. Tribucanes:
So has all interest in the tropical wave in the East Caribbean gone by the wayside? Under high shear now, but by the time it's south of Cuba it will be in a low to moderate shear environment. Should be building convection and at least getting interesting once it gets out from under this high shear into conditions that should be conducive. This is a good looking late season wave.


i gave up on 2013 sorry folks.. at one point i thought there would be a chance too.. but it's too late now may 2013 RIP :(
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263. VR46L
Quoting 261. CaribBoy:


Happy ????

:)
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So has all interest in the tropical wave in the East Caribbean gone by the wayside? Under high shear now, but by the time it's south of Cuba it will be in a low to moderate shear environment. Should be building convection and at least getting interesting once it gets out from under this high shear into conditions that should be conducive. This is a good looking late season wave.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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