Atlantic November Hurricane Outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013

The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no reliable models predicting development of a tropical cyclone during the coming five days. So, are we all done for 2013? Or will this unusually quiet hurricane season spawn a Tropical Storm Melissa? The large-scale circulation pattern over the first half of November favors upward-moving air and an increased chance of tropical storm development over the Atlantic, due to the current positioning of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. By mid-November, this pattern will favor sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, making a late-November tropical storm an unlikely proposition. Wind shear has risen to high levels prohibitive for tropical storm formation over the Gulf of Mexico and the waters near the Bahama Islands, and is expected to remain very high through mid-November, according to the latest run of the GFS model. However, wind shear over the Caribbean is likely to be average to below average for the next two weeks, making tropical storm formation possible there. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support development, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean 0.2°C (0.37°F) above average, and well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 1.) Dry air--which has dominated the tropical Atlantic during the 2013 hurricane season--will continue to make its presence felt over the Caribbean during portions of the coming two weeks, though, reducing the odds of development. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be in the Western Caribbean, where the tail end of a cold front lingers long enough over warm waters to generate some heavy thunderstorms and acquire a spin. A cold front capable of triggering such a disturbance will arrive over the Western Caribbean November 8 - 9, but the GFS and ECMWF models are not suggesting any development from this front. Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.


Figure 1. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on November 1, 2013. The black line marks the 26°C (79°F) isotherm, which is the boundary where tropical storm formation can typically occur. A large portion of the Atlantic is still capable of supporting tropical storm formation, but the Gulf of Mexico is getting marginal.

Climatology of November Atlantic tropical cyclones
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, eleven of the eighteen years (61%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of sixteen November/December storms:

2011: Tropical Storm Sean on November 8
2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms (19%) caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. The most recent November named storm, Tropical Storm Sean of 2011, was an example of this type of storm. However, as I noted in the wake of Hurricane Tomas of November 2010 in my blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, "It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record". Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 2. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Typhoon Krosa takes aim at China
Category 2 Typhoon Krosa is headed towards China's Hainan Island after battering the northern end of Luzon, the main Philippines Island, on Thursday. Krosa hit extreme northeast Luzon near 06 UTC (2 am EDT) on October 31, as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. No injuries or major damage have been reported so far from the storm. Satellite loops show an impressive system with a large eye and plenty of intense thunderstorms. The typhoon will slowly weaken over the weekend as it encounters higher wind shear and cooler waters, before brushing China's Hainan Island as a tropical storm on Sunday.

The GFS and European models predict that the Philippines will see a new tropical storm or typhoon hit the islands on Friday, November 8.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Krosa taken at 05:05 UTC on November 1, 2013. At the time, Krosa was a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

TD 18-E in Eastern Pacific will bring heavy rains to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 18-E has spun up south of Baja, Mexico. Satellite loops show that the depression is poorly organized, but has plenty of intense thunderstorms. Heavy rains from TD 18-E will begin affecting the southern Baja Peninsula and portions of Mainland Mexico to its east on Sunday. The 06Z Friday run of the HWRF model predicted that Mainland Mexico near Manzanillo could see 4 - 8 inches of rain from the system. Moisture from the storm will spread northeastwards into Southwest Texas by Tuesday.

New "Tipping Points" episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT
“Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that began last Saturday on The Weather Channel, airs for the third time on Saturday night, November 2, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", goes on an expedition across Alaska to the North Pole to explore the ticking time bomb of the permafrost melt and the release of tons of carbon dioxide and methane. The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to perform the remarkable triple feat of climbing Mt. Everest and walking to the North and South Poles. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.


Figure 4. "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom watches as scientists take permafrost measurements near the Alaska Pipeline.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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quiet morning today
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AWCN11 CWTO 020439
Updated weather summary for all of Southern Ontario


==weather event discussion==

The first Major autumn storm of the year began with rain and
Isolated thunderstorms over Southwestern Ontario in the early morning
hours of Thursday and moved northeastward throughout the day to
affect all of southern and Northeastern Ontario by afternoon. The
Low rapidly intensified as it reached the warm waters of lake
Huron Thursday evening and in its wake, Southern Ontario woke up
Friday morning to widespread strong winds. The storm claimed one
life Friday morning as damaging winds brought down a tree and hydro
pole on an occupied vehicle in Port Colborne. Rainfall and strong
wind warnings were issued in association with this system.

Below are 24 hour rainfall totals associated with this storm as of 8
A.M. Friday morning.

Rainfall amounts from shand, luther, Arthur and New Hamburg were
provided by the grand river conservation authority.

Location rain amounts (in millimeters)
Bancroft 52.5
Wroxeter 44.8
Windsor 44.4
Shand 44.0
Ridgetown 43.3
Port Carling 42.7
Luther 41.8
Arthur 41.4
New Hamburg 40.8
Beatrice 40.6

Below are maximum wind gusts associated with this storm as of noon
Friday.

Location gust strength (in kilometers per hour)
Port Colborne 106
Long Point 98
Wiarton 96
Point Petre 96
St. Catharines 95
Kingston 89
Ottawa Airport 87
Lake Simcoe buoy 85
Hamilton 85
Toronto Pearson 85
Waterloo-Wellington 85
Trenton 82
Brockville 80

Several reports of fallen tree limbs or trees were also reported
throughout the affected areas. Near mid-day Friday, the hydro-one
website indicated power outages affecting 99270 customers throughout
southern and Northeastern Ontario, with the most affected regions
being the Bruce Peninsula and areas east of Georgian Bay. Toronto
hydro and hydro Ottawa also reported minor outages.

This weather summary contains preliminary information and may not
constitute an official or final report.

END/OSPC

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looks like the next system gets its act together by hr 96

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000
FXUS21 KWNC 011825
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT NOVEMBER 01 2013

SYNOPSIS: AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. ON MONDAY TO THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING MID-WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN ALASKA. DURING WEEK-2, AN AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WESTERN U.S.

HAZARDS

MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES, MON-TUE, NOV 4-5.

HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO, MON-TUE, NOV 4-5.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, OZARKS, AND MIDWEST,
MON-TUE, NOV 4-5.

HEAVY RAIN FOR THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WED,
NOV 6.

HIGH WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVES FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF FLORIDA, MON-WED,
NOV 4-6.

HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CASCADES OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THU-FRI, NOV 7-8.

MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHIFTING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, FRI-SAT, NOV 8-9.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT
PLAINS, RIO GRANDE VALLEY, ROCKIES, SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND
HAWAII.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY NOVEMBER 04 - FRIDAY NOVEMBER 08: AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THIS PERIOD. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
AVERAGE 10 TO 20 DEGREES F BELOW-NORMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND FOOTHILLS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY SNOW IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON TUESDAY, BUT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.



A WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A 1028-HPA SURFACE HIGH FORECAST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.



AS OF FRIDAY AT 2PM EDT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18-E IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT TRACKS NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND AN INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PARTS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN SPREADING EAST ON
TUESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE FORECAST OF LIMITED INSTABILITY PRECLUDES THE
DESIGNATION OF A SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDED TOWARDS A FASTER FRONTAL PROGRESSION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL NOW EXPECTED TO REACH THE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY, NOV 6. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
EASTERN U.S.



PERSISTENT, ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR NEW
ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGH WINDS, LARGE SWELLS (AROUND 9 FEET),
MINOR BEACH EROSION, AND AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES OF FLORIDA FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE CASCADES OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, NOV 7-8. MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOR THIS REGION BEGINNING ON NOV 8.



A RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO
ALASKA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.



FOR SATURDAY NOVEMBER 09 - FRIDAY NOVEMBER 15: THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS INDICATE A PERSISTENT, LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER
THE ALEUTIANS WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. MUCH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, NOV 9, ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN WEEK-2, BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.



ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID OCTOBER 22, THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2-D4 DESIGNATION) ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
IS 18.1 PERCENT WHICH IS THE LOWEST COVERAGE SINCE FEBRUARY 2012.

FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH

$$


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From Miami NWS Disco...

...RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE EAST COAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA WITH
A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG IT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE WITH
THIS BAND REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY, WITH IT WEAKENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. SREF POPS ARE LOW
TODAY TOO...ESPECIALLY SE COAST. HRRR SHOWS NO SHOWERS ANYWHERE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A DRY DAY TODAY,
BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NAPLES AREA TO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THUNDER THREAT LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION SO
REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL
BE THE HEAT...POSSIBLY RECORD HEAT AS THICKNESS RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON A SW WIND FLOW WILL ACCELERATE TEMPS POSSIBLY TO RECORD
LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO THIS AFTERNOON.

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Quoting 477. StormTrackerScott:


KEWL !!This far out as accurate as these models have been this season we are in the clear here in Melbourne :)
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS MORNING AND TOWARD OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TOWARD THE TREASURE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
STRONGER STORMS. IF STORMS APPROACH MOVE INDOORS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
AN EAST SWELL WILL BRING A LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY. IT IS BEST TO SWIM WITHIN
SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND DO NOT SWIM ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS APPROACHING THE INTRACOASTAL
AND NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM THE WEST MAY PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT WILL ELEVATE SEAS MAINLY OFFSHORE TODAY
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND BRINGING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE GULF STREAM WATERS OVERNIGHT.

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
524 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-031000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
524 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND INFREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA
MAY NEED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TONIGHT...REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

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Good Morning Folks!..the beautiful rain here has started yessss..
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Mornin'



Soggy start...that's ok. Last day of warmth and off to nyc in the frigid north. 34 Sunday night and 48 Monday daytime, aahhhhh!!!!
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
200 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION
NEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER AND A CIRCULATION THAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATE IS STRETCHED NORTH TO SOUTH. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS
MISSED THE WESTERN AND STRONGER SEMICIRCLE...AND THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN BELOW STORM STRENGTH...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 0441Z
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED PERHAPS ABOUT 50 NMI TO THE
EAST OF THE MORE SOUTHERN MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WHICH YIELDS AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/4.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO WILL NUDGE THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THAT A LARGE APPROACHING
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE AND RECURVE THE SYSTEM AFTER THAT.
THE GUIDANCE IS FASTER ON THIS CYCLE...THE GFS PARTICULARLY
SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. EVEN WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SLOWER THAN THE TVCE CONSENSUS...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE NEW ECMWF.

DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HINDERED BY EASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND...
POSSIBLY...THE SPRAWLING AND RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN BRIEFLY AS IT SWITCHES FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY IN 24-36 HOURS...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH STORM STRENGTH.
HOWEVER...ONLY THE HWRF MAKES THE SYSTEM A STORM AND THEN ONLY
BARELY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INDUCE WEAKENING ON THE APPROACH TO BAJA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...AND
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE CENTER LOSING DEFINITION
BEFORE LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENEROUSLY INCLUDES A 72-HR
FORECAST POINT TO ALLOW THE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST...BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL EXIST IN THREE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 17.2N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.7N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 18.8N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 20.6N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 23.1N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 27.5N 105.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
200 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION EDGING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 108.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Quoting 474. StormTrackerScott:


Here's the kicker the GFS Ensembles were also developing this area as well.
Were, yes. But are they still?
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EP, 18, 2013110206, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1085W, 30, 1006, TD
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Quoting 479. DonnieBwkGA:
Our incredibly tenuous model hurricane heads out to sea.


At 992 pressure, it would most likely still be a tropical storm
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Quoting 451. Jedkins01:


The line will likely be advancing too fast and won't be thick enough to drop widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. I would say widespread amounts of 0.5 to 0.75 with a few spots getting heavier totals greater than 1 inch are possible. He is right though that an upper disturbance is swinging in and will cause the line of convection to grow stronger and deeper. Even still the surface convergence zone will still remain thin so even if thunderstorms get strong, I doubt they will last long enough to dump more than 0.5 to 1 inches except for in isolated areas.
I wonder when that disturbance will catch up to the line? Also, where exactly the line will be when it happens. Looks like it is about 40 miles west of here at the moment.
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Quoting 484. DonnieBwkGA:


It looked impossible for me too but I'm not a meteorology student so I thought you might have an explanation :)

In short, it ain't happening like that!

Even if there is a period of time after the TUTT low shears out and before the front arrives that is favorable, it won't be a big enough window. With the state of disarray that wave currently is in, it would need multiple days of perfect conditions to develop into something, and that is most certainly not going to happen.
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Quoting 482. DonnieBwkGA:
Why does that model form it 1900?

I really don't know to tell you the truth. It looks pretty inhospitable to me with shear from the TUTT at first and then interaction with a frontal boundary following that.
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Quoting 478. StormTrackerScott:
No this is right under the ULL


It is right where the TUTT low was. The upper low shears out by forecast hour 42, with the modeled storm still to its southwest (1005 mb).

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Quoting 479. DonnieBwkGA:
Our incredibly tenuous model hurricane heads out to sea.



Tenuous, untenable, indefensible, exaggerated, unlikely, hypothetical, insignificant, etc...

I could go on.
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No this is right under the ULL

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Quoting 469. StormTrackerScott:


The models are developing the ULL south of Bermuda NOT the are near the Virgin Islands.


Notice how the low does not develop under the 200 mb circulation, but rather a ways to the southwest of it. This means it is not developing from the TUTT low on the model outputs, but rather from the weak wave currently being sheared by the TUTT.



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Quoting 473. KoritheMan:
If the GFS or ECMWF (or preferably both) were developing this unlikely hypothetical storm, it'd have more credibility.


Here's the kicker the GFS Ensembles were also developing this area as well.
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If the GFS or ECMWF (or preferably both) were developing this unlikely hypothetical storm, it'd have more credibility.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 617 Comments: 22395
Lots of flashing looking NW

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Quoting 470. DonnieBwkGA:
If it becomes a hurricane that threatens Florida enough for warnings I'll plus every comment I see you make for the rest of the year Scott.

And if it doesn't you can plus mine ;)


I am not saying it will however. I was just wondering what the GGEM was developing.
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Quoting 465. 1900hurricane:

Me neither, especially since it develops it from the sheared mess near the Virgin Islands in the next 24 hours.



The CMC has had many ghost storms this year, but this one may be the strangest. 00Z meanders it across the western Atlantic and has it nearly striking Florida before changing its mind. The past 12Z had it knifing SW across Cuba and the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche and then NNW towards Texas.

There was a TUTT low the CMC was constantly trying to make a storm out of and then do crazy things with back in late June/early July. This kind of reminds me of that.


The models are developing the ULL south of Bermuda NOT the are near the Virgin Islands.

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If anyone's awake, I just finished a blog update on TD 18-E.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 617 Comments: 22395
Quoting 465. 1900hurricane:

Me neither, especially since it develops it from the mess near the Virgin Islands in the next 24 hours.



The CMC has had many ghost storms this year, but this one may be the strangest. 00Z meanders it across the western Atlantic and has it nearly striking Florida before changing its mind. The past 12Z had it knifing SW across Cuba and the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche and then NNW towards Texas.

There was a TUTT low the CMC was constantly trying to make a storm out of back in late June/early July. This kind of reminds me of that.


It's developing this area south of Bermuda as if the NAM and NAVGEM. So expect the NHC to start highlighting this area soon.

Here's your system south of Bermuda. Could be a STS in the making.
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Quoting 462. DonnieBwkGA:
I don't believe this


Me neither, especially since it develops it from the sheared mess near the Virgin Islands in the next 24 hours.



The CMC has had many ghost storms this year, but this one may be the strangest. 00Z meanders it across the western Atlantic and has it nearly striking Florida before changing its mind. The past 12Z had it knifing SW across Cuba and the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche and then NNW towards Texas.

There was a TUTT low the CMC was constantly trying to make a storm out of and then do crazy things with back in late June/early July. This kind of reminds me of that.
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If you look at the water vapor it appears this may start out as a sub tropical system south of Bermuda then developes a warm core before getting shoved into FL by a 1043 polar high over the mid Atlantic
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Quoting 462. DonnieBwkGA:
I don't believe this

Navgem as well
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Now we wait to see if more models develope this area south of Bermuda
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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