Atlantic November Hurricane Outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013

The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no reliable models predicting development of a tropical cyclone during the coming five days. So, are we all done for 2013? Or will this unusually quiet hurricane season spawn a Tropical Storm Melissa? The large-scale circulation pattern over the first half of November favors upward-moving air and an increased chance of tropical storm development over the Atlantic, due to the current positioning of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. By mid-November, this pattern will favor sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, making a late-November tropical storm an unlikely proposition. Wind shear has risen to high levels prohibitive for tropical storm formation over the Gulf of Mexico and the waters near the Bahama Islands, and is expected to remain very high through mid-November, according to the latest run of the GFS model. However, wind shear over the Caribbean is likely to be average to below average for the next two weeks, making tropical storm formation possible there. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support development, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean 0.2°C (0.37°F) above average, and well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 1.) Dry air--which has dominated the tropical Atlantic during the 2013 hurricane season--will continue to make its presence felt over the Caribbean during portions of the coming two weeks, though, reducing the odds of development. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be in the Western Caribbean, where the tail end of a cold front lingers long enough over warm waters to generate some heavy thunderstorms and acquire a spin. A cold front capable of triggering such a disturbance will arrive over the Western Caribbean November 8 - 9, but the GFS and ECMWF models are not suggesting any development from this front. Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.


Figure 1. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on November 1, 2013. The black line marks the 26°C (79°F) isotherm, which is the boundary where tropical storm formation can typically occur. A large portion of the Atlantic is still capable of supporting tropical storm formation, but the Gulf of Mexico is getting marginal.

Climatology of November Atlantic tropical cyclones
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, eleven of the eighteen years (61%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of sixteen November/December storms:

2011: Tropical Storm Sean on November 8
2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms (19%) caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. The most recent November named storm, Tropical Storm Sean of 2011, was an example of this type of storm. However, as I noted in the wake of Hurricane Tomas of November 2010 in my blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, "It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record". Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 2. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Typhoon Krosa takes aim at China
Category 2 Typhoon Krosa is headed towards China's Hainan Island after battering the northern end of Luzon, the main Philippines Island, on Thursday. Krosa hit extreme northeast Luzon near 06 UTC (2 am EDT) on October 31, as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. No injuries or major damage have been reported so far from the storm. Satellite loops show an impressive system with a large eye and plenty of intense thunderstorms. The typhoon will slowly weaken over the weekend as it encounters higher wind shear and cooler waters, before brushing China's Hainan Island as a tropical storm on Sunday.

The GFS and European models predict that the Philippines will see a new tropical storm or typhoon hit the islands on Friday, November 8.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Krosa taken at 05:05 UTC on November 1, 2013. At the time, Krosa was a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

TD 18-E in Eastern Pacific will bring heavy rains to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 18-E has spun up south of Baja, Mexico. Satellite loops show that the depression is poorly organized, but has plenty of intense thunderstorms. Heavy rains from TD 18-E will begin affecting the southern Baja Peninsula and portions of Mainland Mexico to its east on Sunday. The 06Z Friday run of the HWRF model predicted that Mainland Mexico near Manzanillo could see 4 - 8 inches of rain from the system. Moisture from the storm will spread northeastwards into Southwest Texas by Tuesday.

New "Tipping Points" episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT
“Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that began last Saturday on The Weather Channel, airs for the third time on Saturday night, November 2, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", goes on an expedition across Alaska to the North Pole to explore the ticking time bomb of the permafrost melt and the release of tons of carbon dioxide and methane. The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to perform the remarkable triple feat of climbing Mt. Everest and walking to the North and South Poles. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.


Figure 4. "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom watches as scientists take permafrost measurements near the Alaska Pipeline.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 661 - 611

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index



Not even the MJO could help this season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 658. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I know who's house I'm coming over for dinner. Have room for one more, hydrus?
Always. I was born and raised on the water. Caught almost all my seafood myself and cooked it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 653. MAweatherboy1:
There's nothing out there...



I really thought we had a shot at getting at least another named storm late Oct/early Nov, but looks like it's not gonna happen. You can never rule out some weird tropical or subtropical development in the middle of nowhere during the last weeks of the season, but I think I will go ahead and add my name to the list of those who think this forgettable season is over. On to winter!


Member Since: March 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
Quoting 651. hydrus:
I have said that this is the eatenest weather blog in the world..And for those who are reading this, I am one of the best seafood cooks in the world...and I can prove it...:)
I know who's house I'm coming over for dinner. Have room for one more, hydrus?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 10628
Quoting 651. hydrus:
I have said that this is the eatenest weather blog in the world..And for those who are reading this, I am one of the best seafood cooks in the world...and I can prove it...:)
hyrdus... I have taken many classes at the now defunct"Palm Beach Culinary Institute" I am a great cook of seafood myself... You would die for my crab cakes...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 653. MAweatherboy1:
There's nothing out there...



I really thought we had a shot at getting at least another named storm late Oct/early Nov, but looks like it's not gonna happen. You can never rule out some weird tropical or subtropical development in the middle of nowhere during the last weeks of the season, but I think I will go ahead and add my name to the list of those who think this forgettable season is over. On to winter!
There's 50 knots of shear almost everywhere out there right now.It's like a mouse trap for anything that's trying to form.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Going to a wedding tomorrow and it is outside and it will be cool(temp).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 649. ricderr:
Having some yellowtail snapper me and bf caught last weekend..


i had the joy of living in the bay area ca.....an island in washington...the keys and then south florida...all wonderful seafood markets...now living in el paso...landlocked a thousand miles from the ocean...seafood just has no attraction if it has to be shipped in and thawed
Being in Palm Beach county I always wonder why I am eating frozen fish from some other country.....It really sucks..And the way they raise farm fish is disgusting....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There's nothing out there...



I really thought we had a shot at getting at least another named storm late Oct/early Nov, but looks like it's not gonna happen. You can never rule out some weird tropical or subtropical development in the middle of nowhere during the last weeks of the season, but I think I will go ahead and add my name to the list of those who think this forgettable season is over. On to winter!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 648. GrandCaymanMed:


I hope your forecast is right. I'd love to have a late season TS.

I know you do
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 16530
Quoting 627. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ok I am going to eat now because I see food being posted in here. ;)
I have said that this is the eatenest weather blog in the world..And for those who are reading this, I am one of the best seafood cooks in the world...and I can prove it...:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 643. washingtonian115:
Just give it up.This is 2013 and this hurricane season is officially up.Wait until May of next year.

No it ain't wait till the last of the month then you can say that
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 16530
Having some yellowtail snapper me and bf caught last weekend..


i had the joy of living in the bay area ca.....an island in washington...the keys and then south florida...all wonderful seafood markets...now living in el paso...landlocked a thousand miles from the ocean...seafood just has no attraction if it has to be shipped in and thawed
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 688 Comments: 24001
Quoting 636. wunderkidcayman:
Our AOI should become stationary soon ULL should move our and upper level anticyclone takes over should be interesting


I hope your forecast is right. I'd love to have a late season TS.
Member Since: March 31, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
Quoting 644. ricderr:
New satellite images show that the LLC with our AOI appears to now have stalled and it also appears that the lower cloud deck around the LLC is starting to fill this should continues as shear continues to fall





thank you wunder.........you keep it alive there.....
One day, you'll look , to see I've gone, but tomorrow may rain so, I'll follow the sun.... It's over
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 637. PalmBeachWeather:
kid...... It's over...Singing under my breath a Roy Orbison song....

No it ain't go and retire early lololol

No but seriously it ain't



Anyway here is vis/rgb
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 16530
Quoting 641. ricderr:
A bad run


with the gem.......tc genesis is always a bad run
lol true
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New satellite images show that the LLC with our AOI appears to now have stalled and it also appears that the lower cloud deck around the LLC is starting to fill this should continues as shear continues to fall





thank you wunder.........you keep it alive there.....
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 688 Comments: 24001
Quoting 636. wunderkidcayman:
Our AOI should become stationary soon ULL should move our and upper level anticyclone takes over should be interesting
Just give it up.This is 2013 and this hurricane season is officially up.Wait until May of next year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 639. ricderr:
it's hard to be the voice of reason when by the hour more and more wishcasters drop out.....still though...gonna cook up a batch of crow next week for a few of my bestest friends
speaking of cookin' up a batch... Having some yellowtail snapper me and bf caught last weekend...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A bad run


with the gem.......tc genesis is always a bad run
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 688 Comments: 24001
New satellite images show that the LLC with our AOI appears to now have stalled and it also appears that the lower cloud deck around the LLC is starting to fill this should continues as shear continues to fall
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 16530
it's hard to be the voice of reason when by the hour more and more wishcasters drop out.....still though...gonna cook up a batch of crow next week for a few of my bestest friends
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 688 Comments: 24001
Quoting 614. LargoFl:
12z Gem..this is new...................
A bad run
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 636. wunderkidcayman:
Our AOI should become stationary soon ULL should move our and upper level anticyclone takes over should be interesting
kid...... It's over...Singing under my breath a Roy Orbison song....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Our AOI should become stationary soon ULL should move our and upper level anticyclone takes over should be interesting
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 16530
There is some sort of pattern that I've seen in the last two decades since the active era started.For a example 2009 inactive 2010 active 2007 not as monumental,2008 6 major hurricanes,2002 not as active,2003 active,and 1994 not so active 1995 active.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As my male co-workers keep saying I need to make a "short Calender" Freekin' male thing I think...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
..........3 more weeks and I will be retired!!!!! November 22.........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 630. Patrap:


The Originator owner of Popeyes Chicken, Al Copeland in New Orleans, passed a few years back and the Pavilion for Him opened here a few days ago PBW.



Al Copeland’s stage opens at Lafreniere Park



Sorry, and YES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 624. PalmBeachWeather:
Popeyes now has crawfish....


The Originator owner of Popeyes Chicken, Al Copeland in New Orleans, passed a few years back and the Pavilion for Him opened here a few days ago PBW.



Al Copeland’s stage opens at Lafreniere Park



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 450 Comments: 143015
Quoting 627. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ok I am going to eat now because I see food being posted in here. ;)
My second favorite thing... Eating
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Going to the Miami zoo tomorrow with my lovely granddaughter....Looks like a great weather day.
Quoting 625. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good gas money for me. :P
Think big GT... Lottery... or at least a 12 pack of Bud Light
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 623. hydrus:
Smoked Gouda...And do not be cheap with the amount..
Ok I am going to eat now because I see food being posted in here. ;)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 10628
Going to the Miami zoo tomorrow with my lovely granddaughter....Looks like a great weather day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 615. allancalderini:
This model is crazy,I will give every wunder blogger 20 dollars if it happens.
Good gas money for me. :P
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 10628
Quoting 623. hydrus:
Smoked Gouda...And do not be cheap with the amount..
Popeyes now has crawfish....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 621. PalmBeachWeather:
Would you like some cheese with that Whine?....
Smoked Gouda...And do not be cheap with the amount..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 615. allancalderini:
This model is crazy,I will give every wunder blogger 20 dollars if it happens.
Cool..........Power Ball tickets...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 608. hydrus:
Hole one for me...grumble,,whine..:)
Would you like some cheese with that Whine?....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 619. LargoFl:
the heavy rain now is over by Daytona etc...
:D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 10628
the heavy rain now is over by Daytona etc...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 67950
Fall meets Summer Mid Gulf O Mexico


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 450 Comments: 143015
Quoting 599. eyewallblues:
I have to disagree with Dr. Masters. The Atlantic Hurricane Season cannot be over, since it never began in the first place. Things will get cooking in Late November, with 3 named storms in December alone. One of these storms will be Hattie-Like, and I am cautioning my friends in Belize accordingly.

I base this on absolutely nothing. However, it makes at least as much sense at the season to date has. Dec. 2-8 is the time to be prepared.
eyewall.........Don't get carried away... Have a few Oreos and milk...It will help... That's my fix
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 614. LargoFl:
12z Gem..this is new...................
Hmm...I would like to see other models pick up on it first. 5 days out is definitely withing range, but it is the over aggressive GEM (CMC) model we are talking about here.



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 10628
Quoting 614. LargoFl:
12z Gem..this is new...................
This model is crazy,I will give every wunder blogger 20 dollars if it happens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z Gem..this is new...................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 67950
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ATLANTIC COAST...
...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ATLANTIC BEACHES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GULF
COAST BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH HIGH TIDES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD MAY LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES.

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM WILL LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
BEGINNING SUNDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...PEAK TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS AND SURF WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO ANY SWIMMERS
ENTERING THE WATER SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES. PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SURF MAY LEAD TO MINOR
BEACH EROSION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 67950
Quoting 611. stormpetrol:
LL spin clearly seen here at 14N/75W Link
This seems familiar. Didn't Jerry develop like this had a partner ULL with it?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 10628
LL spin clearly seen here at 14N/75W Link
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8839

Viewing: 661 - 611

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Local Weather

Overcast
60 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Pictured Rocks Beach Day
Pictured Rocks dunes and clouds
Grizzlies in Lake Clark National Park
Mount Redoubt Lava Dome