98L in Eastern Atlantic no Threat; Typhoon Danas Takes Aim at Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2013

A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms and spin. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the GFS and European models do not. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 20%, and 5-day odds of 30%. 98L's projected track will take it into the Central Atlantic, where it is unlikely to threaten any land areas. The models are not showing any other threat areas, and the large-scale Atlantic conditions favor below-average chances of tropical storm formation for the next two weeks. These odds may rise by the last week of October and first week of November, when the MJO has a decent chance changing to a phase that will bring upward air motion to the Atlantic.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 98L over the far Eastern Atlantic, taken at approximately 8:30 am EDT on October 7, 2013. The southernmost Cape Verde Islands are visible at upper right. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Danas takes aim at Japan
In the Pacific, impressive Typhoon Danas reached Category 4 status with 145 mph winds this morning as it passed just north of Okinawa, becoming the third strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2013. Only Super Typhoon Usagi (160 mph winds) and Super Typhoon Utor (150 mph winds) have been stronger. Danas has peaked in strength, and satellite loops show that wind shear has begun eating into the intense thunderstorms on the southwest portion of Danas' eyewall. Danas is expected to weaken to Category 2 strength as it recurves to the northeast and passes very close to Nagasaki, Japan around 12 UTC on Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Danas, taken at approximately 02 UTC on October 7, 2013. At the time, Danas had top winds of about 140 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Cyclone expected to form in the North Indian Ocean and threaten India
In India, where one of the longest monsoon seasons ever recorded is finally beginning to wane, atmospheric conditions over the North Indian Ocean are growing more conducive for the formation of tropical cyclones. The waters off the west coast of Thailand feature a large area of intense thunderstorms with a pronounced spin, as seen on satellite images. Both the GFS and European models predict that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday, with the storm expected to track to the northwest and make landfall in Northeast India this weekend. This storm has the potential to intensify into a major storm capable of driving a dangerous storm surge onto the coast.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 292. SLU:
Pay no attention to the shear forecast since it uses the obviously incorrect BAMM track.

SHEAR (KT) 8 3 2 3 3 5 4 9 17 19 19 22 21


I actually think this might peak at ts strength like 50 to 70mph I am usually conservative but I am going to be more liberal this time.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4686
Quoting 299. SFLWeatherman:
It looks like night time here in WPB!


good thing im just south of all that mess lol
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It looks like night time here in WPB!
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Quoting 286. Tropicsweatherpr:


It still has something down there. That area ENE of NC is not tropical right?


Cold-core, yes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35659
Quoting 288. cloudblower:
i will be posting my 2014 tropical season forcast on february 1st 2014.... i dont think it will be much different from what weve seen this year and maybe even quieter


nothing can possibly be more quieter than this year even with El Niño i think would be more active somewhat
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WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 543/544
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

NYC005-047-061-079-081-085-119-072100-
/O.CON.KOKX.TO.A.0543.000000T0000Z-131007T2100Z/

TORNADO WATCH 543 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN NEW YORK THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK

BRONX KINGS (BROOKLYN) NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)
PUTNAM QUEENS
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) WESTCHESTER

$$
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This is what the eyewall of a Category 4-equivalent typhoon looks like.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35659
Quoting 249. georgevandenberghe:


A 384 hour deterministic forecast has the accuracy and entertainment value of a fortuneteller

But c'mon, you do check them don't you :-) ?


Yes, I love Sci-Fi stuff...
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293. VR46L
Quoting 261. ncstorm:
I cant be sure if this is ex Karen remnants or not as this website doesnt have a loop..

but I will post with that caution..















NC I have a free loop of the Euro but I can't view it on my chromebook ....

ECMWF Model - North America - 00z & 12z Cycles

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292. SLU
Pay no attention to the shear forecast since it uses the obviously incorrect BAMM track.

SHEAR (KT) 8 3 2 3 3 5 4 9 17 19 19 22 21


Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5995
Quoting MahFL:


Not a cat in hells chance.
doubted, their usual conservatism is going to be at their maximum scale considering how terrible the models have been this year..
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Heh !
Post 278.

I see that the model-spread for 98L have no idea where it's going.
Why the huge variation ?
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< don't worry Ricky, it wont reach Cuba...
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Quoting 270. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 12z ECMWF dropped any development of Invest 98L.


It still has something down there. That area ENE of NC is not tropical right?

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 16636
Storm Relative 16 km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery

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Quoting 279. cloudblower:
it will fizzle out if it doesnt go out to sea


yeah theres no way it can make that trip as anything what i meant is sneak as a wave and then re develop
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Quoting 264. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Narda looks terrible this afternoon. The stratocumulus clouds to the northwest of the cyclone indicate dry, stable air that is likely being entrained into the circulation.


Looks better then most of the things we have seen in the atlantic.
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I see the forecast is wide ranging for 98L on the Wunderground page. I guess anywhere from South America to out to sea.
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Quoting 272. HuracanTaino:
98L models tendency is west or WSW, ....

maybe it sneak across the ATL and make it to the caribbean who knows..
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Flight Delays for the Northeast
Newark, NJ (KEWR) 2 hr 39 min
New York, NY (KLGA) 2 hr 12 min
Providence, RI (KPVD) 1 hr 38 min
Washington, DC (KDCA) 1 hr 1 hr
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Quoting Kyon5:

Lol, big shift in track.
98L models tendency is west or WSW, ....
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Quoting 242. ChillinInTheKeys:
Looks like the navy's going to be messin' with our weather radar a bit more often... Among other things:
An increase in chaff countermeasure exercises. Chaff canisters contain
a Ccouple million aluminum-covered glass fibers, about the same
thickness as human hair, designed to confuse enemy radar. About
30,000 such chaff canisters may be released near the Keys each
year. According to the summary, Chaff is a very light material that can
remain suspended in air anywhere between 10 minutes to 10 hours
and can travel up to 200 miles from the point of release. After falling
from the air, the fibers float on the sea surface and eventually sink.


Interesting. Is this the same techniques that are used during cloud seeding runs? I recall reading something about aluminum being used as well in those experiments but neither the composition or size of the particulate matter was mentioned.
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The 12z ECMWF dropped any development of Invest 98L.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35659
Quoting 263. Hurricane614:
I just got rocked in NY. 80 mph winds with 2 inches of rain in 30 minutes. Still under a tornado watch, and a wind advisory. Power went out for a hour or two.


The front absorbed a large amount of the moisture and energy from Karen and combined it with strong jet dynamics.
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weather related delays reported at airports along east coast *Severe Weather Threat* including Newark, New York, Washington, Philadelphia - flightaware.com
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Active Advisory: Tornado Watch, Severe Thunderstorm Warning, Areal Flood Advisory, Wind Advisory (US Severe Weather) Active Notice: Local Storm Report.

I've never seen anything like this around here......
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even if 98L heads out to sea it just goes to show the Cape Verde season may not be over just yet..
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Narda looks terrible this afternoon. The stratocumulus clouds to the northwest of the cyclone indicate dry, stable air that is likely being entrained into the circulation.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35659
I just got rocked in NY. 80 mph winds with 2 inches of rain in 30 minutes. Still under a tornado watch, and a wind advisory. Power went out for a hour or two.
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I don't know why my post #242 regarding increased chaff came out the way it did with all that strange text, but I cleaned it up so that it can be easily read.

Chaff is already common on our weather radar, but I guess we'll be seeing it more often.
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I cant be sure if this is ex Karen remnants or not as this website doesnt have a loop..

but I will post with that caution..













Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 18087
Quoting 254. ncstorm:
has anyone seen the 12z euro..??


Lol NO BUT I HOPE IT BRINGS 98L TO ME AS A STRONG TROP STORM !!! :-)
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259. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Cyclone potential for Andaman Sea/Bay Of Bengal this week

2013 India Meteorological Department
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258. Kyon5

Quoting 256. JRRP:
LOL

Lol, big shift in track.
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Strong storms with gusty winds moving through Wellington/Acreage toward West Palm/Boynton.
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256. JRRP
LOL
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LLC of Ex-Karen over my house right now in Cedar Key..
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has anyone seen the 12z euro..??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 18087
Ugh keep hoping the forecast will change and Karen will stay away from the NC Coast. Just wanna be able to fish in peace without having to dodge rain and wind.
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Quoting 241. HurricaneAndre:
98L is up 25kts.


no its not

AL, 98, 2013100718, , BEST, 0, 92N, 267W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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18z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2013100718, , BEST, 0, 92N, 267W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 16636

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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