98L in Eastern Atlantic no Threat; Typhoon Danas Takes Aim at Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2013

A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms and spin. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the GFS and European models do not. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 20%, and 5-day odds of 30%. 98L's projected track will take it into the Central Atlantic, where it is unlikely to threaten any land areas. The models are not showing any other threat areas, and the large-scale Atlantic conditions favor below-average chances of tropical storm formation for the next two weeks. These odds may rise by the last week of October and first week of November, when the MJO has a decent chance changing to a phase that will bring upward air motion to the Atlantic.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 98L over the far Eastern Atlantic, taken at approximately 8:30 am EDT on October 7, 2013. The southernmost Cape Verde Islands are visible at upper right. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Danas takes aim at Japan
In the Pacific, impressive Typhoon Danas reached Category 4 status with 145 mph winds this morning as it passed just north of Okinawa, becoming the third strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2013. Only Super Typhoon Usagi (160 mph winds) and Super Typhoon Utor (150 mph winds) have been stronger. Danas has peaked in strength, and satellite loops show that wind shear has begun eating into the intense thunderstorms on the southwest portion of Danas' eyewall. Danas is expected to weaken to Category 2 strength as it recurves to the northeast and passes very close to Nagasaki, Japan around 12 UTC on Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Danas, taken at approximately 02 UTC on October 7, 2013. At the time, Danas had top winds of about 140 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Cyclone expected to form in the North Indian Ocean and threaten India
In India, where one of the longest monsoon seasons ever recorded is finally beginning to wane, atmospheric conditions over the North Indian Ocean are growing more conducive for the formation of tropical cyclones. The waters off the west coast of Thailand feature a large area of intense thunderstorms with a pronounced spin, as seen on satellite images. Both the GFS and European models predict that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday, with the storm expected to track to the northwest and make landfall in Northeast India this weekend. This storm has the potential to intensify into a major storm capable of driving a dangerous storm surge onto the coast.

Jeff Masters

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751. thesailer99
8:40 PM GMT on October 10, 2013
The information on hurricanes in the Atlantic is well covered and much appreciated but this year it was a quiet year and it seems to me the Pacific is having a busy year. We live in a big World and not every thing revolves around the USA. Could you extend you statistics to the rest of the World. It would also give you more interest in the off season.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 9
750. ScottLincoln
1:51 AM GMT on October 09, 2013
Quoting 749. sar2401:

Thank you for the interesting links, Scott. I have never been involved in a tornado rescue, but have part of rescue teams after major earthquakes in California and Mexico City. While the lead time from a tornado warning to a strike may only be a few minutes, it's more like a few seconds in a major earthquake. Even while a tornado is almost on top of a structure, there may still be a few seconds to move to a better place of safety. Once a major earthquake is in progress, it's impossible to move at all due to the violent ground motion. I was continually amazed at the number of people we found alive in completely collapsed structures, including pancake collapses in multistory concrete slab buildings in Mexico City. Every collapse creates voids withing the collapsed structure, and that's where people are sheltered and can survive, even when it looks hopeless from the outside. The biggest killer is time, not the actual collapse. Most trapped people are injured and dehydration sets in withing 24 hours, especially in hot weather. I haven't seen any figures for the numbers of people who survived the initial collapse but died later from injuries or dehydration but, from my own anecdotal experience, it's a substantial amount.

This is why we should be pushing for the earthquake warning systems already in use in many other developed countries with earthquake threats. Unfortunately our national priorities many times stray from science and important domestic matters.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3529
749. sar2401
6:31 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Based upon what information?

The peer reviewed literature on tornado survivability indicates that the vast majority of people survived in areas with "violent" (EF4-5) tornadic winds. Most of these studies were biased toward tornado events in areas that had few basements, particularly Oklahoma. This suggests that your chance of surviving a tornado - even a strong or violent tornado - is quite high, assuming you following the standard tornado safety advice. Lowest floor, sturdy structure, most interior room. Never use your car (exceptions are few and not widely applicable), and never stay in a mobile home.

Follow the standard advice, avoid the unsubstantiated advice of newscasters, and although you may be injured (especially in higher-end tornadoes) you will most likely survive. That is what the evidence says.

More reading:
Wurman et al (2007)
Brooks et al (2008)
Simmons & Sutter (2008)
Ashley (2007)

Thank you for the interesting links, Scott. I have never been involved in a tornado rescue, but have part of rescue teams after major earthquakes in California and Mexico City. While the lead time from a tornado warning to a strike may only be a few minutes, it's more like a few seconds in a major earthquake. Even while a tornado is almost on top of a structure, there may still be a few seconds to move to a better place of safety. Once a major earthquake is in progress, it's impossible to move at all due to the violent ground motion. I was continually amazed at the number of people we found alive in completely collapsed structures, including pancake collapses in multistory concrete slab buildings in Mexico City. Every collapse creates voids withing the collapsed structure, and that's where people are sheltered and can survive, even when it looks hopeless from the outside. The biggest killer is time, not the actual collapse. Most trapped people are injured and dehydration sets in withing 24 hours, especially in hot weather. I haven't seen any figures for the numbers of people who survived the initial collapse but died later from injuries or dehydration but, from my own anecdotal experience, it's a substantial amount.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 25746
748. Neapolitan
4:53 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 745. scott39:
This does not help save polar bears. It polarizes both sides. Leadership is desperately needed in this country.
Correcting a spelling error is "polarizing both sides"?

Please do tell...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 15161
747. ScottLincoln
4:04 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 744. PanhandleChuck:


K.... keep drinking the kool aid

A fascinating, logical rebuttal. Do you have any actual information to back up your original claims?

As a reminder...
1. Arctic sea ice melt is virtually irrelevant to sea level rise. You can look this up... it isn't a controversial statement.

2. There are no climate change predictions that even remotely suggest that winter will no longer occur in the panhandle of Florida. If you were to remove said heater, it would be your mistake to make. You can look this up... no astrophysicists have made predictions that the planet's orbit will change. If you'd like to suggest otherwise, it's your responsibility to back it up with evidence.

No evidence to back up your claims. No rebuttals with anything of substance. Yet someone who has actually gone to school for this is "drinking the kool aid?" Fascinating.

Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3529
746. pie314271
2:58 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 081431
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013

ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES...CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DECREASED THIS
MORNING...AND OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONSEQUENTLY
FALLEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT... WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

THE UNEXPECTED WEAKENING OF NARDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS APPEARS
TO BE THE RESULT OF AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...AND
INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...
AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NARDA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A
LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.6N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.3N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 16.4N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.4N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 16.0N 133.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 15.5N 135.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Member Since: July 6, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 105
745. scott39
2:37 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 725. Neapolitan:
Artic --> Arctic
This does not help save polar bears. It polarizes both sides. Leadership is desperately needed in this country.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7185
744. PanhandleChuck
2:29 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 734. ScottLincoln:

Arctic sea ice melt is virtually irrelevant to sea level rise.

There are no climate change predictions that even remotely suggest that winter will no longer occur in the panhandle of Florida. If you were to remove said heater, it would be your mistake to make.


K.... keep drinking the kool aid
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1418
743. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:27 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
742. barbamz
2:26 PM GMT on October 08, 2013






Some recent screenshots from Nautilus / channel 1.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 91 Comments: 10209
741. HiDesertRat
2:19 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 675. CycloneOz:
The Complete Hurricane Season up to 10/05/2013:


Thanks! That was amazing to see how so many potential storms just dried up and blew away, so to speak. One weird year indeed!
Member Since: June 5, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
740. biff4ugo
2:16 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Systems don't spark off of Venezuela like you think they would.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 119 Comments: 1638
739. biff4ugo
2:14 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Riah cracks me up! Thanks for the Roundup and shutdown outline for weather types.

So do Tea Party folks like wunderground since it is private sector and doesn't shut down with the most of the other weather services like NOAA or are they disappointed that they weren't able to douse this climate change espousing web portal?
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 119 Comments: 1638
738. redwagon
2:14 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 712. GeoffreyWPB:


System trying to form off Venezuela? BOC spark still alive, kinda inland.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3612
737. Torito
2:12 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 736. ILwthrfan:


Is this even a depression yet? JTWC still has it as 90W, I have no idea how that isn't at least a TD, let alone it may already be a minimul cylcone less than 50 knots?


Yes, looks like a tropical cyclone already, JTWC should get its act together sometime.....
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 4554
736. ILwthrfan
2:10 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 730. Torito:
90W looking good!



Is this even a depression yet? JTWC still has it as 90W, I have no idea how that isn't at least a TD, let alone it may already be a minimal cylcone less than 50 knots?
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1973
735. SFLWeatherman
2:05 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
cold front coming into S FL tonight!:) going down to 66 tonight and 86 tomorrow from 91 today!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5204
734. ScottLincoln
2:04 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 700. PanhandleChuck:



Yup, anything under 60 is freezing. I sure am glad I didn't have the heater in my truck removed after hearing all of the GW predictions over the last few years. I also am glad that the ice in the Artic has expanded, otherwise my house 20 miles inland may have been swallowed by the GOM.

Arctic sea ice melt is virtually irrelevant to sea level rise.

There are no climate change predictions that even remotely suggest that winter will no longer occur in the panhandle of Florida. If you were to remove said heater, it would be your mistake to make.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3529
733. barbamz
1:48 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 727. VirginIslandsVisitor:


Thanks so much for that link! I read an article last week that they would be diving in the area. This is fascinating to watch.

Lindy


Now the connection is broken :(
Usually it's very stable. I like to follow the live reports from Nautilus for quite a time, whether they are exploring sunken ships, underwater mud volcanoes or whatever. Great job to communicate science in real time in a very public friendly manner!

Edit: Back online again :)
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 91 Comments: 10209
732. hydrus
1:47 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 27808
731. washingtonian115
1:46 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
So glad that we are now entering a rainy pattern.My garden is healthy.I know plants don't have feelings but they seem more happier now that they've gotten rain and not burning temps and dry conditions.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 22401
730. Torito
1:44 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
90W looking good!

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 4554
729. Tango01
1:44 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 724. Stoopid1:
2013 Atlantic ACE so far...

Andrea - 1.6175
Barry - 0.5650
Chantal - 2.0925
Dorian - 2.4925
Erin - 0.98
Fernand - 0.3625
Gabrielle - 1.8425
Humberto - 8.8225
Ingrid - 4.6675
Jerry - 1.4175
Karen - 2.09

Total - 26.95


One word to describe it: pathetic
Member Since: September 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
728. ricderr
1:43 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
what?....another invest?....another chance of a named storm?....which would be number what......12?...these dead seasons sure are active....



good morning boys and girls
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 688 Comments: 23995
727. VirginIslandsVisitor
1:42 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 711. barbamz:
Good morning over there. For those who are interested in deep water operations, here is the link to the live watch of Nautilus in the Caribbean:

Current Status of the Nautilus with its ROVs:
We are continuing to dive along the western wall of the Mona Rift, investigating the geological structure and biological character of this major fault system. We are at a depth of 2100 m. 1 hour 36 min ago


Thanks so much for that link! I read an article last week that they would be diving in the area. This is fascinating to watch.

Lindy
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 845
726. Torito
1:41 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
98L trying to close off the LLC right now...

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 4554
725. Neapolitan
1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 700. PanhandleChuck:



Yup, anything under 60 is freezing. I sure am glad I didn't have the heater in my truck removed after hearing all of the GW predictions over the last few years. I also am glad that the ice in the Artic has expanded, otherwise my house 20 miles inland may have been swallowed by the GOM.
Artic --> Arctic
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 15161
724. Stoopid1
1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
2013 Atlantic ACE so far...

Andrea - 1.6175
Barry - 0.5650
Chantal - 2.0925
Dorian - 2.4925
Erin - 0.98
Fernand - 0.3625
Gabrielle - 1.8425
Humberto - 8.8225
Ingrid - 4.6675
Jerry - 1.4175
Karen - 2.09

Total - 26.95
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2872
723. Doss2k
1:37 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 701. ncstorm:
Rain till Thursday..and quite cool..

Today

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%

Rain

High: 69 °F

Tonight

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%

Rain

Low: 61 °F

Wednesday

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 90%

Rain

High: 70 °F

Wednesday
Night

Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%

Rain
Likely

Low: 60 °F

Thursday

Chance Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%

Chance
Rain

High: 71 °F

Thursday
Night

Mostly Cloudy

Mostly
Cloudy

Low: 58 °F


One week late again this year for my fishing trip. Looks more like a hang out at the beach and drink beer inside kind of trip now :(.
Member Since: August 15, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
722. ScottLincoln
1:35 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 601. Tribucanes:
Blue, an EF5 is not survivable unless your in a bunker or somehow miraculously survive.

Based upon what information?

The peer reviewed literature on tornado survivability indicates that the vast majority of people survived in areas with "violent" (EF4-5) tornadic winds. Most of these studies were biased toward tornado events in areas that had few basements, particularly Oklahoma. This suggests that your chance of surviving a tornado - even a strong or violent tornado - is quite high, assuming you following the standard tornado safety advice. Lowest floor, sturdy structure, most interior room. Never use your car (exceptions are few and not widely applicable), and never stay in a mobile home.

Follow the standard advice, avoid the unsubstantiated advice of newscasters, and although you may be injured (especially in higher-end tornadoes) you will most likely survive. That is what the evidence says.

More reading:
Wurman et al (2007)
Brooks et al (2008)
Simmons & Sutter (2008)
Ashley (2007)
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3529
721. canelane23N75W
1:33 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 651. BahaHurican:
Morning Largo, and all... looks like the NW Bahamas may have some rain today.



The ultimate prep that has led to the busted season!!
I went and invested a few thousand dollars in a trailer for my boat so I would not have to go thru the stress of pulling my boat out this year for all the storms we almost had...It seems the more I prep the less we get. This is a very good thing indeed, although we like a good storm you can't beat the adrenaline. We are thankful for the break after two years of excitement from Irene and Sandy. So I do apologize for the year of the tropical storm!!

link to the video of Irene - Link

Member Since: September 29, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 37
720. StormPro
1:32 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 717. prcane4you:
Another one going nowhere but open seas.


EXCELLENT!!! Then you can track something and no one gets hurt
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
719. LargoFl
1:29 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 717. prcane4you:
Another one going nowhere but open seas.
that is a good thing.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 66159
718. LargoFl
1:28 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 66159
716. whitewabit
1:20 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 711. barbamz:
Good morning over there. For those who are interested in deep water operations, here is the link to the live watch of Nautilus in the Caribbean:

Current Status of the Nautilus with its ROVs:
We are continuing to dive along the western wall of the Mona Rift, investigating the geological structure and biological character of this major fault system. We are at a depth of 2100 m. 1 hour 36 min ago


Thank you for the link .. sad that they are finding garbage on the ocean floor ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 386 Comments: 36851
715. daddyjames
1:19 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
G'morning from Central OK,

Another chilly, upper-40's, but beautiful morning - with one slight exception.

Light winds combined with a skunk that met an untimely demise last night on the highway, leads to a local forecast outside of continued stinky (barely breathable) conditions.

Otherwise, the next chance for rain, and potentially severe weather, in the area begins late-Thursday and stretches throughout Saturday. A potential concern for tailgaters at the Oklahoma-Texas showdown in Norman on Sat.

Two potential areas of concern in the Tropics. If the CV storm develops, there still is a snowball's chance in "a very warm place" for my numbers to be correct.

Have a fantastic day. Hope for our sake the city guys can cart PePe Le Pew (moment of silence) somewhere far removed from here.
:)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 5382
714. GeoffreyWPB
1:16 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
98L...



Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12771
713. Stoopid1
1:14 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Actually got just under 1" of rain yesterday and today so far from the remnants of Karen and the cold front. As per the Wunderground's almanac, Jacksonville is 4" below average for the year as of yesterday, but no concerns for drought issues.

Cloudy and 75 now, but we're supposed to have lows in the low and mid 60's this week. Happy to see the change in season really coming.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2872
712. GeoffreyWPB
1:10 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12771
711. barbamz
1:05 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Good morning over there. For those who are interested in deep water operations, here is the link to the live watch of Nautilus in the Caribbean:

Current Status of the Nautilus with its ROVs:
We are continuing to dive along the western wall of the Mona Rift, investigating the geological structure and biological character of this major fault system. We are at a depth of 2100 m. 1 hour 36 min ago
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 91 Comments: 10209
710. biff4ugo
1:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Panhandle, that is one craaazy loop in the jet bringing you 50's temps while the pan is still sweltering in mega humidity.
I'm looking forward to actually being on the Fall side of this front with you.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 119 Comments: 1638
709. Torito
1:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
The next winter storm?

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 4554
708. MahFL
1:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 703. StormTrackerScott:
There are already signs in the long range forecast that we could be dealing with a very active southern branch. So snow from TX to NC seems liekly this Winter and FL is looking wet this Winter wwith average to below average temps.



I heard FL was going to be dry.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 6313
707. whitewabit
12:57 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 703. StormTrackerScott:
There are already signs in the long range forecast that we could be dealing with a very active southern branch. So snow from TX to NC seems liekly this Winter and FL is looking wet this Winter wwith average to below average temps.



cattle ranchers in the northern plain states are saying they have suffered large losses from the blizzard ..

Link
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 386 Comments: 36851
706. Xyrus2000
12:57 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 557. Astrometeor:


They upgraded it? Huh. Still wimpy. Can't wait for the triplet 8.0s of New Madrid to come back. That'll be fun, I will make sure to be in an open plain away from any dead trees or structures when that happens.


That won't necessarily help you. Between soil liquefaction, ground displacement, sink holes, and general geological instability you probably won't be that much better off. And with nothing built to withstand an 8.0 earthquake in the region, even if you survived you'd be in the middle of a major disaster zone.

And by disaster zone I mean a large portion of the midwest. Most of the substrate out there is solid bedrock which happens to be quite good at transmitting seismic waves across long distances. The 1811-1812 quake caused damage over a very large area, and even in Boston supposedly caused church bells to ring.

Then there's the aftershocks and the other ancillary effects like potential floods (from broken dams, seismic shifts under bodies of water) and fires. There'd also be heavy disruption to our food supply since a lot of our agricultural resources would be impacted.

It would be a bag of happy fun balls alright. :P
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
705. allancalderini
12:53 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 677. SLU:


Well this morning 98L looks very sick after so much hard work in the last couple of days. It's going to have to start all over again. The dry air Gods have eaten it alive.

There's virtually nothing there. I was never really enthusiastic about this system.



It has less convection but better structure just need to have more convection again.Coming until 2pm my local time as I am leaving to high school.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4663
704. masonsnana
12:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Quoting 666. PanhandleChuck:


LOL, not another storm, it took me so long to clean up that lawn chair that blew over in my back yard.


Lol!
Member Since: February 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 735
703. StormTrackerScott
12:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
There are already signs in the long range forecast that we could be dealing with a very active southern branch. So snow from TX to NC seems liekly this Winter and FL is looking wet this Winter wwith average to below average temps.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 32 Comments: 11491
702. StormTrackerScott
12:48 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Looking like a slow trend toward El-Nino this Winter. I say bring it on as the Southern US could us some interesting weather this Winter.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 32 Comments: 11491
701. ncstorm
12:44 PM GMT on October 08, 2013
Rain till Thursday..and quite cool..

Today

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%

Rain

High: 69 °F

Tonight

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%

Rain

Low: 61 °F

Wednesday

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 90%

Rain

High: 70 °F

Wednesday
Night

Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%

Rain
Likely

Low: 60 °F

Thursday

Chance Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%

Chance
Rain

High: 71 °F

Thursday
Night

Mostly Cloudy

Mostly
Cloudy

Low: 58 °F
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 18055

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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