We're changing our WunderBlogs. Learn more about this important update on our FAQ page.

95L Remains Unorganized in the Gulf of Mexico

By: shauntanner , 6:15 PM GMT on September 20, 2013

Invest 95L, located in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, is around 100 miles east of Tampico, Mexico Friday morning and is struggling to organize based on satellite imagery. Visible satellite shows the strongest thunderstorm activity has been displaced to the south of what would be the center of circulation. Only a few thunderstorms are associated with this disturbance currently, with the strongest of these on the southern and eastern edges.


Satellite image showing Invest 95L and a lack of thunderstorm development

The National Hurricane Center has decreased the likelihood of 95L developing over the next two days from 70% on Thursday to 30% heading into the weekend.  Some models suggest this disturbance could track north toward the Texas coast, where it could strengthen. This northward jog would be guided by a cold front that is forecast to track across the U.S over the weekend.  Regardless whether this disturbance develops, significant rain is expected from southern Texas through much of the Southeast as it will couple with the aforementioned cold front to draw considerable moisture northward. Upwards of 5 inches of rain (see image below) could fall along coastal areas from Texas through Mississippi even if the disturbance does not develop.


WPC forecast showing the QPF forecast for Friday through Monday.  Note the significant rain expected through the Southeast due to the combination of the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and a cold front moving through the eastern U.S.


Model tracks showing some possible paths of Invest 95L

Super Typhoon Usagi

Usagi maintained Super Typhoon strength on its path just south Taiwan and north of Philippines.  With a wind strength of 150 mph, Usagi is taking a reasonably good path as the official forecast takes the typhoon into the South China Sea and weakens it into a Category 2 storm before eventual landfall near Shenzen on Sunday.  This will still be a strong storm with the capability of doing considerable damage and significant flooding.


Tracking map of Super Typhoon Usagi.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 48 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 — Blog Index

Quoting 46. VR46L:


I guess Irish English does not translate well ... I got a telling off is what I meant ....

Nah I got it, unfortunately I would have done the same thing since when the "bot" popped up with the link to take me here it said "Jeff Masters has created a new entry". Maybe some people should relax huh? Y'all have a great weekend, be nice
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Remember, only the dishonest scientists are on the deniers side LOL Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 40. yoboi:



hmmmm...


I guess Irish English does not translate well ... I got a telling off is what I meant ....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 31. 69Viking:
Good afternoon everyone! The cold front doesn't look to be moving too fast, sure hope it gets moving so at least we get one day out of our weekend to enjoy without rain.



We have a fish fry for 60 people scheduled for 1:00PM tomorrow in Navarre. Not looking too good...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jeff Masters is the best!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you Shaun!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm really really hoping San Antonio doesn't get skipped on the rain. Looks like we could be on the edge of missing most of the rain, but it's still early and it's hard to see what's going on in Northern Mexico without easy to find radar in the desert.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GOOD BLOG!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Usagi with its eye down right side. Taiwan radar.



Bye for now. After nearly the whole day being glued to Usagi I have to leave ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 30. VR46L:

LOL ... I already got an eating for that !!!
Sucks screwing up........ LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 35. Tazmanian:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 SEP 2013 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 20:24:07 N Lon : 122:35:49 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 932.3mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -23.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE


Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



Fair assessment:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
36. 7544
Quoting 26. wunderkidcayman:
Our AOI E of Lesser Antilles has now got a new low


yep looks wnw for now will the front send this one fishing too ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 SEP 2013 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 20:24:07 N Lon : 122:35:49 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 932.3mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -23.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE


Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 28. PalmBeachWeather:
Thank you Dr. Masters


LOL, sometimes it's beneficial to read all the details of the post!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The difference between the GFS and the GEM at 102 hours is stunning. The GFS has weak areas of vorticity scattered around while GEM has two tropical cyclones on either side of Florida. The GFS actually shows a low level ridge in the spot where the GEM has a TC. LOL.

Gotta love the Canadian.

GFS



GEM

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 26. wunderkidcayman:
Our AOI E of Lesser Antilles has now got a new low



A little bit short of breath now. But there's another D-max tomorrow morning :)

And yes, thank you, Shaun, for filling in!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon everyone! The cold front doesn't look to be moving too fast, sure hope it gets moving so at least we get one day out of our weekend to enjoy without rain.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 28. PalmBeachWeather:
Thank you Dr. Masters

LOL ... I already got an eating for that !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very prototypical warm (tropical) rain occurring here in College Station. Tiny drops of rain, but they are all very densely packed. Almost no lightning (although the only strike I've seen so far happened VERY close to my house).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you Shaun
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Minnemike:
oddly enough, for myself using the Classic version of WU, Shaun's name appears nowhere on the entire page except within the comments section (doing a word search, it's not my tired eyes;)
a small price to pay for my preferred version..

Same here, on all points.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Our AOI E of Lesser Antilles has now got a new low
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 22. indianrivguy:


and me for you.. and all other Texicans :)


It's Friday and Texas is getting rain. God is good!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oddly enough, for myself using the Classic version of WU, Shaun's name appears nowhere on the entire page except within the comments section (doing a word search, it's not my tired eyes;)
a small price to pay for my preferred version..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 21. Tazmanian:



doc did not do today blog shauntanner did it


OOPS ! Sorry about that ,

Thanks Shaun !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 15. 1900hurricane:
I'm feeling happy today.



and me for you.. and all other Texicans :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 17. VR46L:
Thanks Doc !



doc did not do today blog shauntanner did it
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Thanks Shaun...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 3. Torito:
Thanks Jeff Masters! I saw you on TWC the other day!



guys look at the top of the blog be for you start saying thanks dr m did not do today blog shauntanner did it so if you are going too say thanks too some one you sould say thank you too shauntanner
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Looks like the CMC is the only "reliable" model still holding onto development of 95L. It looks to be feeding back the low pressure area too much and not giving credence to the majority of the energy getting strung out along the front. The Gulf is just not that favorable, as was said would be the case earlier in the week.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Doc !

Edit ... Thanks Shaun
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So........ I see the 55W wave can't keep its convection.

..... sigh
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I'm feeling happy today.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 9. Neapolitan:
Thanks, Shaun.


Kind of missed that ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank You Dr. and here is a re-post I just did from the older Blog as you were posting this one:

Good Afternoon. Given that this Blog is based out of the US and a large portion of the Bloggers on here are from Florida and the Gulf Coast regions (for obvious reasons), we tend to discuss "the one" in terms of memorable past Conus strikes or potential/future storms.

The tropics spans both basins (Atlantic and Pacific) and while the Atlantic has been suppressed this year, they have had a bang up season on the Pacific side and we are still counting deaths in Mexico from the two recent storms; this season will be memorable for them in terms of the "one" this year even though none were major hurricanes.

The United States have been very lucky since 2006 in terms of major hurricane landfalls but we have also had our share of flooding/surge issues from several "mere" tropical storms in recent years.

The "one" could come in any given season but so far this year, I am grateful (and particularly at the pump in recent weeks) that we have not gotten a storm in the Gulf disrupting gas production and that insurance reserves can build up a little bit (flooding claims are still taking a bit hit this year regardless).

Hurricane tracking is fun but the lack of major strikes in any given season for the Caribbean/US/Mexico is a better outcome in any given year regardless of the predictions and whether they busted or not.

We have seen some unusual things in recent years but Mother Nature is the only one in control; we over predicted this year (bust forecast) but we also grossly under predicted the record-setting 2005 season (another bust forecast).

The next several seasons will probably be just as interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Doc. The atmosphere and weather are amazing. So much unpredictability. Looks like a nice weather weekend in Ormond by the Sea. Beach, fishing, surfing? Ahhhh, decisions decisions!! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1. StormTrackerScott:
Thanks Doc


Your opinion on the spin south of the Yucatan and the area east of the Islands?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you very much for the new blog, Shauntanner and Dr. Jeff Masters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks, Shaun*. Good to see those much-needed raindrops falling on Texas--so long as those drops don't fall all at once...

* - Not Dr. Masters, by the way. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Half inch of rain Forecast for MD. Ill take it! :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the Update Shaun,.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Shaun.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Something wrong with the tracking map and other info about Usagi.. I can't get anything to come up except that little tracking map..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you Shaun Tanner

Looking forward to the rain
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Jeff Masters! I saw you on TWC the other day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Doc!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Shaun
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 48 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 — Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Ad Blocker Enabled