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Sunshine Aids Colorado Evacuations; 38 Dead in Mexico From Manuel and Ingrid

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:42 PM GMT on September 17, 2013

After nine consecutive days with rain, skies have finally cleared over flood-ravaged Boulder, Colorado. Flooding from the past week's rains have killed at least seven, destroyed over 1,500 homes, damaged 18,000 homes, and caused close to $1 billion in damage, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Over 70 bridges have been damaged or destroyed, and hundreds of roads damaged, including major sections of U.S. Highways 34, 36 and 72. Clear skies are forecast for the remainder of the week, which will allow rescue helicopters to safely operate to evacuate the hundreds of people still trapped in mountain towns cut off by the rockslides, collapsed bridges, and destroyed roads. The rains that fell early Monday morning in Boulder officially put the city over its all-time annual precipitation record with three and a half months left in the year. Boulder has been deluged with 30.13" so far this year; the previous record was 29.93", set in 1995.


Figure 1. A raging waterfall destroys a bridge along Highway 34 east of Estes Park, Colorado, on September 15, 2013. (AP Photo/Colorado Heli-Ops, Dennis Pierce)


Figure 2. Damage to Highway 34 along the Big Thompson River, on the road to Estes Park, Colorado. Image credit: Colorado National Guard.


Figure 3. A field of parked cars and trucks sits partially submerged near Greeley, Colorado, Saturday, Sept. 14, 2013, as debris-filled rivers flooded into towns and farms miles from the Rockies (AP Photo/John Wark).

A 1-in-1,000 year flood and rainfall event
The Colorado Emergency Management Agency reported that “Some areas in Larimer County experienced a 100-year flood and other areas experienced a 1,000-year flood. It all depends on where the heaviest rain fell. Areas with more extensive damage experienced the 1,000 year flooding.” The U.S. Geological Survey office in Colorado called the flood of Boulder Creek in the city of Boulder as at least a 1-in-100-year event. In the towns of Lyons and Estes Park, officials separately described the current event in each area as a 1-in-500-year flood. According to Bob Henson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, 17.16" of rain fell in the past week in Boulder. Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur. For Boulder, a 5.87" rain event in one week has an average recurrence interval of once every 1,000 years. The city received almost triple that amount of rain over the past week--a truly extreme and rare weather event.

As extreme as the 2013 Colorado flood was, there are two flood events in Colorado history that compare. One was the June 1965 flood that hit the Colorado Front Range, causing $4 billion in damage (adjusted for inflation.) Colorado's deadliest flood on record was the Big Thompson Flood of 1976, which killed 145 people between Estes Park and Loveland. More than 12" of rain fell in just three hours, causing a flood rated at between a 500-year and 1,000-year event.


Figure 4. The rains that fell in a 24-hour period ending at 12 pm MDT September 13, 2013 over regions near Boulder, Colorado were the type of rains with a 0.2% chance of falling in a particular year, or once every 500 years (purple colors), according to MetStat, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/

Colorado's rains set to cause record flooding in Nebraska
Much of the water from the past week's record rains in Colorado have funneled into the South Platte River, which flows eastwards in Nebraska. A 10 - 11' high flood crest is headed downriver, and is setting all-time flood height records as it heads east. By Wednesday night, the crest will reach western Nebraska at Roscoe, where the flood waters may cover Interstate 80, unless sandbagging efforts to protect the highway are done. Interstate 80 is one of the two most heavily traveled transcontinental highways in the United States.


Figure 5. Observed and predicted flood heights on the South Platte River in Western Nebraska, where an all-time record flood is expected on Wednesday. Records at this gauge go back 30 years. Image credit: NOAA/

Links
Bob Henson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder summarizes the great flood.

Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood has a home in Boulder, and discusses his take on the flood.

Colorado’s ‘Biblical’ Flood in Line with Climate Trends by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central.

Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses how this year's flood compares to previous Colorado floods in his latest post.

A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Video 1. A slow-motion mudslide pours into Boulder Creek, Colorado on September 14, 2013.

Ingrid and Manuel kill 38 in Mexico; Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Flooding from the combined one-two punch of Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Manuel on the Pacific coast is being blamed for the deaths of at least 38 people in Mexico, according to AP. The two storms hit Mexico nearly simultaneously on Monday, packing sustained winds of 65 - 70 mph and torrential rains. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is closed, many roads flooded and blocked, and much of the city without water or power.

The waterlogged Gulf Coast of Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. Belize radar and satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is low and is expected to stay low over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 30% and 5-day odds of 50% in their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is likely to stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche and take a slow west-northwest path towards the same region of coast affected by Hurricane Ingrid. On Saturday, a cold front is expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico, and moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast, bringing heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday. A non-tropical low pressure system could form along this front and move northeastwards into the Florida Gulf Coast, bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

Lefthand Creek Flood (TigerKOD)
Aftermath
Lefthand Creek Flood
Day 4 (Railheel)
Clear Creek is normally a small clear creek that runs from Golden to Denver. Floods have changed it's look.
Day 4
Lefthand Creek Flood - Aftermath (TigerKOD)
Wash out
Lefthand Creek Flood - Aftermath

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting 482. daddyjames:


LOL - you should probably extend that 2011-2013. :)


Lol you're right. Actually since 2011 was 0.0 inches and the year of the land shark cyclone eater (Don) I might have to actually drop the measurable precip count.
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Those are some crazy looking spaghetti models...looks like someone took a box of crayons and went off the deep end....
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Quoting 487. daddyjames:


Looks like a woman with flowing long hair and a cape taking a stroll.



LOL, I don't see it myself...
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You bet. It there's a 40% or higher chance of rain, its rains 100% of the time at my location.
It rains almost every day. There's only been a few days in the past 2 month where it hasn't rained at my location.
But that's Florida.

When I lived in Texas, 40% chance of rain really meant 40% of the area would see rain.
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Someone (I don't know if it was reliable info or not) said that no storms have transitioned from tropical to subtropical before Nadine last year.
If that's true, we've had that happen 2 years in a row and never before in well recorded history..
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Quoting 458. VR46L:
EPAC pretty much closing down IMO..



Looks like a woman with flowing long hair and a cape taking a stroll.

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JTWC increases intensity forecast for Usagi. 105kts as peak now

WTPN32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 130.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 130.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.7N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.1N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.6N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.3N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 23.5N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 130.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 552 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN



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Upper 50s and low 60s today in western NC. Don't think the forecast high of 74 is going to happen.

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95L looks like crap, just like everystorm this year besides Humberto and maybe Ingrid.
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Quoting 479. calkevin77:


In Texas we call that 2012-2013 :)


LOL - you should probably extend that 2011-2013. :)
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Quoting 475. JrWeathermanFL:
Not extremely often you see a EPAC storm regenerate is it?

And the models made me think of an Opal like track and I see some other bloggers think the same :P


For the invest in the EPAC? ;)
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Quoting 469. daddyjames:


1 to 3 inches of rain? You know well that is equivalent to a typical afternoon thunderstorm there.


In Texas we call that 2012-2013 :)
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Gregor Peter ‏@L0gg0l 1 min
TORNADO TOUCHES DOWN AT BAHAMAS INTL AIRPORT IN NASSAU, PLANES OVERTURNED Link
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Quoting 471. LAbonbon:


Huh, am I the only one that wasn't expecting that? NHC has it at 60/60.


its been an invest for a while. Interesting if it shoots straight up through the Gulf of California. Someone was just asking if a storm had ever done that.



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Humberto should be subtropical at the next advisory.

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Not extremely often you see a EPAC storm regenerate is it?

And the models made me think of an Opal like track and I see some other bloggers think the same :P
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474. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Huh, am I the only one that wasn't expecting that? NHC has it at 60/60.


quite a surprise since it was suppose to dissipate over southwestern Mexico a few days ago.
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Quoting 469. daddyjames:


1 to 3 inches of rain? You know well that is equivalent to a typical afternoon thunderstorm there.


I agree but most of that is in the 6 to 7 day timeframe. Totals will go much higher as we get the whole event inside the 7 day forecast.
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Quoting 373. PalmBeachWeather:
I'm older than most of you, but I have a few male friends that go "Trolling" every weekend... They usually go to "City Place" in West Palm Beach...As I understand it they are looking for females....


I've probably seen them lol
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Quoting 457. Tropicsweatherpr:
Manuel is Back!

BEGIN
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Huh, am I the only one that wasn't expecting that? NHC has it at 60/60.
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470. TXCWC
EURO developes as do other models - GFS currently keeping it weak though so I can not be completely onboard just yet





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Quoting 467. StormTrackerScott:


Really?



1 to 3 inches of rain? You know well that is equivalent to a typical afternoon thunderstorm there.
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UKMET Office

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T 84 : 25.5N 95.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.09.2013 25.5N 95.7W WEAK

12UTC 21.09.2013 28.5N 93.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.09.2013 29.1N 93.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.09.2013 29.8N 91.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.09.2013 30.5N 90.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 23.09.2013 31.1N 90.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T 120 : 32.7N 60.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 22.09.2013 32.7N 60.8W WEAK

00UTC 23.09.2013 35.6N 59.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.09.2013 38.9N 56.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY



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Quoting 462. meteorite:
i dought central florida will get much from 95l


Really?

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Quoting 441. StormTrackerScott:


It even looks as if the circulation is extending up over FL now. This may become a very large system once it gets going.


Gonna take a while to tighten this thing up. At least I see why the GFS had it slingshotting into the GOM.

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Dont trust the HWRF model, how many times does it have to be wrong until you see. IT has been wrong WITH EVERY storm this year, so why post it.
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Quoting 460. RitaEvac:


That's a FL forecast, when it's 60% here it's 100% guranteed


I hope so Rita but the last several years have done Texas wrong in the rain department.
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Quoting 452. RitaEvac:
60% rain for Friday in Houston all local stations reporting


Around 50% chance here in Austin Thursday evening into Friday as well. Best chance in a while with highs in the upper 80s.
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Quoting 455. StormTrackerScott:


That means 40% chance you will get nuttin.


That's a FL forecast, when it's 60% here it's 100% guranteed
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Quoting 452. RitaEvac:
60% rain for Friday in Houston all local stations reporting


Ours is saying 70%
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458. VR46L
EPAC pretty much closing down IMO..

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Manuel is Back!

BEGIN
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FSTDA
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8 years ago Rita is born tomm.
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Quoting 452. RitaEvac:
60% rain for Friday in Houston all local stations reporting


That means 40% chance you will get nuttin.
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Quoting 410. Tropicsweatherpr:
What HWRF has at 12z would cause the blog to be hopping.


That almost looks like a carbon copy of Opal...

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Mojo heading for the GOM
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60% rain for Friday in Houston all local stations reporting
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Here's what they're saying here in the FL Panhandle.

Long term [friday through tuesday]...
things start to get more interesting this weekend with possible
tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico and an approaching
mid-latitude trough. Several models do show some sort of low
pressure in the Gulf with a wide range of solutions in terms of how
it interacts with the approaching mid-latitude system.
Rain chances
look to be increasing for the weekend, and the main reason pops are
not even higher than currently depicted is due to some timing
differences in the guidance. Whenever tropical moisture is involved,
we always have to watch out for the potential of some heavy
rainfall amounts, but forecast confidence in heavy rain is
currently lower than average with a wide range of possibilities
still on The Table this far out.
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Quoting 429. StormTrackerScott:


Jim Cantore looks like the Barry Bonds of baseball.


Lol. Fair enough. While we're on sports, I've been thinking this entire hurricane season has been looking like Dennis Rodman :)
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Quoting 441. StormTrackerScott:


It even looks as if the circulation is extending up over FL now. This may become a very large system once it gets going.
we got to wait till it gets to the other side of the yuc 24 to 36 hrs from now
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Quoting 435. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




I see that Manuel has decided to regenerate. If at first you don't succeed...
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From this afternoon's Tampa AFD:



.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL COMPARED
WITH THE GFS/ECMWF IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE GIVEN THE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF...ONE OF THE BIASES OF
THE CANADIAN MODEL IS TO OVERDEVELOP TROPICAL CYCLONES DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. AS A RESULT...WILL
FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR FORECAST DETAILS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TAIL
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEA
BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND STALLS OUT BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO DIFFERING DEGREES CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CANADIAN ON THE OTHER HAND AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...HAS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR AND SOME INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.
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Quoting 434. CybrTeddy:
ECMWF onboard with development from 95L, has it stalling out in the BoC and strengthening before moving north into the United States as a moderate-strong tropical storm.


Kori will be happy. :)
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TXPQ27 KNES 171515
TCSWNP

A. 17W (USAGI)

B. 17/1432Z

C. 17.6N

D. 130.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/TMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...VERY LARGE AND COOLING CDO FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
DISPLACED FROM LOW LEVEL CENTER PER MI SUITE... BUT ALSO APPEARS TO
BE ROLLING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE SE HEMISPHERE INTO THE NE SIDE AS
WELL... INDICATIVE OF LOWERING PRESSURES AND INCREASED SFC CONVERGENCE
ON EASTERN BAND. BANDING OF .5 BUT WITH WHITE AND CMG ALONG THE LENGTH
YIELDS DT OF 3.0. MET IS 3.0. PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

17/0848Z 17.7N 131.2E SSMIS
17/1050Z 17.4N 131.1E TMI
17/1219Z 17.5N 130.9E AMSU


...GALLINA


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TXNT22 KNES 171757
TCSNTL

A. 09L (HUMBERTO)

B. 17/1745Z

C. 29.8N

D. 42.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. SUBTROPICAL

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN UNLESS SYSTEM RETRANSITIONS BACK
TO TROPICAL.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ


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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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