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Sunshine Aids Colorado Evacuations; 38 Dead in Mexico From Manuel and Ingrid

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:42 PM GMT on September 17, 2013

After nine consecutive days with rain, skies have finally cleared over flood-ravaged Boulder, Colorado. Flooding from the past week's rains have killed at least seven, destroyed over 1,500 homes, damaged 18,000 homes, and caused close to $1 billion in damage, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Over 70 bridges have been damaged or destroyed, and hundreds of roads damaged, including major sections of U.S. Highways 34, 36 and 72. Clear skies are forecast for the remainder of the week, which will allow rescue helicopters to safely operate to evacuate the hundreds of people still trapped in mountain towns cut off by the rockslides, collapsed bridges, and destroyed roads. The rains that fell early Monday morning in Boulder officially put the city over its all-time annual precipitation record with three and a half months left in the year. Boulder has been deluged with 30.13" so far this year; the previous record was 29.93", set in 1995.


Figure 1. A raging waterfall destroys a bridge along Highway 34 east of Estes Park, Colorado, on September 15, 2013. (AP Photo/Colorado Heli-Ops, Dennis Pierce)


Figure 2. Damage to Highway 34 along the Big Thompson River, on the road to Estes Park, Colorado. Image credit: Colorado National Guard.


Figure 3. A field of parked cars and trucks sits partially submerged near Greeley, Colorado, Saturday, Sept. 14, 2013, as debris-filled rivers flooded into towns and farms miles from the Rockies (AP Photo/John Wark).

A 1-in-1,000 year flood and rainfall event
The Colorado Emergency Management Agency reported that “Some areas in Larimer County experienced a 100-year flood and other areas experienced a 1,000-year flood. It all depends on where the heaviest rain fell. Areas with more extensive damage experienced the 1,000 year flooding.” The U.S. Geological Survey office in Colorado called the flood of Boulder Creek in the city of Boulder as at least a 1-in-100-year event. In the towns of Lyons and Estes Park, officials separately described the current event in each area as a 1-in-500-year flood. According to Bob Henson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, 17.16" of rain fell in the past week in Boulder. Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur. For Boulder, a 5.87" rain event in one week has an average recurrence interval of once every 1,000 years. The city received almost triple that amount of rain over the past week--a truly extreme and rare weather event.

As extreme as the 2013 Colorado flood was, there are two flood events in Colorado history that compare. One was the June 1965 flood that hit the Colorado Front Range, causing $4 billion in damage (adjusted for inflation.) Colorado's deadliest flood on record was the Big Thompson Flood of 1976, which killed 145 people between Estes Park and Loveland. More than 12" of rain fell in just three hours, causing a flood rated at between a 500-year and 1,000-year event.


Figure 4. The rains that fell in a 24-hour period ending at 12 pm MDT September 13, 2013 over regions near Boulder, Colorado were the type of rains with a 0.2% chance of falling in a particular year, or once every 500 years (purple colors), according to MetStat, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/

Colorado's rains set to cause record flooding in Nebraska
Much of the water from the past week's record rains in Colorado have funneled into the South Platte River, which flows eastwards in Nebraska. A 10 - 11' high flood crest is headed downriver, and is setting all-time flood height records as it heads east. By Wednesday night, the crest will reach western Nebraska at Roscoe, where the flood waters may cover Interstate 80, unless sandbagging efforts to protect the highway are done. Interstate 80 is one of the two most heavily traveled transcontinental highways in the United States.


Figure 5. Observed and predicted flood heights on the South Platte River in Western Nebraska, where an all-time record flood is expected on Wednesday. Records at this gauge go back 30 years. Image credit: NOAA/

Links
Bob Henson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder summarizes the great flood.

Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood has a home in Boulder, and discusses his take on the flood.

Colorado’s ‘Biblical’ Flood in Line with Climate Trends by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central.

Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses how this year's flood compares to previous Colorado floods in his latest post.

A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Video 1. A slow-motion mudslide pours into Boulder Creek, Colorado on September 14, 2013.

Ingrid and Manuel kill 38 in Mexico; Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Flooding from the combined one-two punch of Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Manuel on the Pacific coast is being blamed for the deaths of at least 38 people in Mexico, according to AP. The two storms hit Mexico nearly simultaneously on Monday, packing sustained winds of 65 - 70 mph and torrential rains. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is closed, many roads flooded and blocked, and much of the city without water or power.

The waterlogged Gulf Coast of Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. Belize radar and satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is low and is expected to stay low over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 30% and 5-day odds of 50% in their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is likely to stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche and take a slow west-northwest path towards the same region of coast affected by Hurricane Ingrid. On Saturday, a cold front is expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico, and moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast, bringing heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday. A non-tropical low pressure system could form along this front and move northeastwards into the Florida Gulf Coast, bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

Lefthand Creek Flood (TigerKOD)
Aftermath
Lefthand Creek Flood
Day 4 (Railheel)
Clear Creek is normally a small clear creek that runs from Golden to Denver. Floods have changed it's look.
Day 4
Lefthand Creek Flood - Aftermath (TigerKOD)
Wash out
Lefthand Creek Flood - Aftermath

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Let's see what the NAVGEM tries to do this run.

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MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:49 PM PDT on September 17, 2013
Clear
88.0 °F
Clear
Humidity: 33%
Dew Point: 55.0 °F
Wind: 3.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 12.0 mph
Pressure: 29.73 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 9 out of 16
Pollen: 7.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

Hows your weather Joe? Cooler OFF up here.
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Quoting 625. Chucktown:


It's not going to be what everyone thinks it's going to be. There is going to be a lot of shear over the northern GOM at the end of the week and this weekend, so don't look for some kind of monster storm. Also, rain amounts may not be as high either, it's not going to be a slow mover once it gets caught up in the westerlies and the moisture gets whisked NE and east across Florida and much of the SE. Very progressive pattern right now.


Hmm, a progressive hurricane.
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POLL

Do you think 95L will form in the BOC?
A YES
B NO

When will it be there?
Tom am.
Tom pm.
Thu am.
Thu am.

How strong will it be?
A. Weak TS
B. Strong TS
C. Weak 'Cane
D. Strong 'Cane
E. (your answer here)

Will it hit land/if so where?
A. YES
B. NO

A. MEXICO
B. TEXAS
C. LOUISIANA/NOLA
D. MS/AL GULF COAST
E. FLORIDA
F. SOMEWHERE ELSE (please specify)
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Quoting 625. Chucktown:


It's not going to be what everyone thinks it's going to be. There is going to be a lot of shear over the northern GOM at the end of the week and this weekend, so don't look for some kind of monster storm. Also, rain amounts may not be as high either, it's not going to be a slow mover once it gets caught up in the westerlies and the moisture gets whisked NE and east across Florida and much of the SE. Very progressive pattern right now.



MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

VALID SEP 17/1200 UTC THRU SEP 21/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO NEGATIVELY AFFECT
THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS.

AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST FRI
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THU/FRI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED HERE TO DEAL WITH ANY
LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE NEAR THE
WEST COAST CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S SLOW PROGRESSION AND AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER -- NHC -- GIVES THIS DISTURBANCE A
60% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE VARIOUS PIECES OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FORM
THE SYSTEM, WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN THE STRONGEST/FARTHEST NORTHEAST
-- A TYPICAL BIAS. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-CANADIAN
COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S
EXPECTED SLOW PROGRESSION. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE POINTS
COORDINATED BETWEEN NHC AND OUR MEDIUM RANGE DESK. SEE NHC
OUTLOOKS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE LATEST STATUS ON THIS SYSTEM.

TROUGH AMPLIFYING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE NAM IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE LATE FRIDAY. CONSIDERING THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES AT THAT TIME, A
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION SHOULD BE FAVORED. THIS RULES OUT THE NAM
FROM CONSIDERATION. A NON-NAM COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED HERE --
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS -- WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
..500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML

ROTH
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638. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Well this one is rather funny..


Debby: "decisions.. decisions. where do I want to go?"
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Quoting 635. VR46L:


Well this one is rather funny..

DEBBY Graphics Archive


Debby's couldn't decide where to go, then she was just like "screw it"
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South of Louisiana:

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635. VR46L
Quoting 630. FunnelVortex:


What storm exactly had the widest cone? Does anyone know?


Well this one is rather funny..

DEBBY Graphics Archive
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Quoting 633. Bobbyweather:
Wow, Manuel regenerated? There sure are many tropical storms regenerating this year.


It's the Night Of The Living Dead; Tropical Storm Edition!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Wow, Manuel regenerated? There sure are many tropical storms regenerating this year.
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Quoting 625. Chucktown:


It's not going to be what everyone thinks it's going to be. There is going to be a lot of shear over the northern GOM at the end of the week and this weekend, so don't look for some kind of monster storm. Also, rain amounts may not be as high either, it's not going to be a slow mover once it gets caught up in the westerlies and the moisture gets whisked NE and east across Florida and much of the SE. Very progressive pattern right now.
Actually if the front gets stuck over the peninsula of FL. you may see pieces of shortwave energy ride along it. It's a pattern that brings unsettled weather for a longer duration of time as opposed to the normal afternoon seabreeze generated thunderstorms, if you know what I'm trying to say.
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Quoting 601. VR46L:


LMAO !!!

Thats one large cone ...


What storm exactly had the widest cone? Does anyone know?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 625. Chucktown:


It's not going to be what everyone thinks it's going to be. There is going to be a lot of shear over the northern GOM at the end of the week and this weekend, so don't look for some kind of monster storm. Also, rain amounts may not be as high either, it's not going to be a slow mover once it gets caught up in the westerlies and the moisture gets whisked NE and east across Florida and much of the SE. Very progressive pattern right now.


like I said earlier

its gonna rain
maybe some wind
for sure some clouds
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Quoting 540. Naga5000:


This drug was approved under the FDA's "accelerated approval process", which has less stringent rules than the regular process. The caveat is that the company must continue clinical trials during the accelerated approval. Only after the results of those clinical trials showed large adverse effects did the FDA remove it from the market. This was not the fault of science or P.H.D.'s but the failure of Wyeth and the FDA to ensure safety. "A confirmatory, post approval clinical trial was begun by Wyeth (now Pfizer) in 2004. The trial was designed to determine whether adding Mylotarg to standard chemotherapy demonstrated an improvement in clinical benefit (survival time) to AML patients. The trial was stopped early when no improvement in clinical benefit was observed, and after a greater number of deaths occurred in the group of patients who received Mylotarg compared with those receiving chemotherapy alone." Link

You have my deepest condolences.


Who was it that lobbied for "less stringent rules", the sciencetists or the business managers? I'll bet on the profit seekers every time. Trouver l'argent.
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INVEST Early track Guidance is never a cone, its guidance.

A cone is reserved for NHC Declared advisories for Tropical Storms and Higher.




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Quoting 619. FunnelVortex:
I have to hand it to 95L. It looks like it won't just be another piece of BOC trash.



It's not going to be what everyone thinks it's going to be. There is going to be a lot of shear over the northern GOM at the end of the week and this weekend, so don't look for some kind of monster storm. Also, rain amounts may not be as high either, it's not going to be a slow mover once it gets caught up in the westerlies and the moisture gets whisked NE and east across Florida and much of the SE. Very progressive pattern right now.
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Quoting 603. TropicalAnalystwx13:
95L has a great structure. Robust LLC with plenty of spiral banding.



looks better to me then some of the systems that have been classified this season, would not be shocked if we got the first dot while still over the Yucatan
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Quoting 621. Hurricanes101:
I really do not think 95L will be a Mexico storm
its all going to come down to timing
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GFS shows nothing really through 57 hours
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I really do not think 95L will be a Mexico storm
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Quoting 581. 954FtLCane:
BTW, thanks Dr Masters. Interesting Blog on the floods in CO. Hopefully it dries out soon.

Interesting to see where 95 goes and how powerful it'll be. I'm thinking we're done with TX for the season and will only see either the Mexican coast and anything from LA east through FL's bigbend area.
Still plenty of time though.



It is possible yet that a storm lurking in the BOC might come up on the backside of a cold front or between fronts during the fall. Once they get moving in like that, they may be swayed or swept eastward but still can manage to do some damage or dump some rain while closeby.
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I have to hand it to 95L. It looks like it won't just be another piece of BOC trash.

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Quoting 617. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


in about 24 hrs then another 12 hrs after that to get going maybe
Thank you..
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Quoting 605. bayoubug:
When will it emerge in the BOC..Wednesday late evening..


in about 24 hrs then another 12 hrs after that to get going maybe
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12Z GEFS 2013-09-17 5 day loop to 12Z Sunday showing evolution of forecast 1004 mb isobars.
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Quoting 603. TropicalAnalystwx13:
95L has a great structure. Robust LLC with plenty of spiral banding.



As long as it is able to maintain it as it enters the BOC... should make a huge difference down the road.
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Quoting 585. SuperStorm093:
this will be the storm of the year.....95L everyone get ready for late nights


I think so.....
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For those that follow tornadoes, there are a couple of warnings up in Idaho. Warning areas shown on a map Link

TORNADO WARNING
IDC013-031-067-077-172200-
/O.NEW.KPIH.TO.W.0011.130917T2114Z-130917T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
314 PM MDT TUE SEP 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL IDAHO...
NORTH CENTRAL CASSIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO...
SOUTHEASTERN MINIDOKA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF RUPERT...
WEST CENTRAL POWER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO...

* UNTIL 400 PM MDT

* AT 308 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VIEW...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BURLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
RUPERT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 8 7 7 1 9 3 7.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO.

&&

LAT...LON 4295 11351 4276 11311 4234 11360 4246 11381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 212DEG 33KT 4249 11362

$$

DMH

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN SUMMARY SECTION

...MANUEL REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 107.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO ALTATA
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. IT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Back with Manuel...
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Quoting 609. FunnelVortex:


It won't be long before one of the models does an NOLA doom run.
I agree lol..
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Quoting 604. trunkmonkey:


Thanks.

BTW - Texas reservoirs contain the same amount of water today, as they did in October 2011. Don't see you jumping for joy. Wonder why?
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Quoting 581. 954FtLCane:
BTW, thanks Dr Masters. Interesting Blog on the floods in CO. Hopefully it dries out soon.

Interesting to see where 95 goes and how powerful it'll be. I'm thinking we're done with TX for the season and will only see either the Mexican coast and anything from LA east through FL's bigbend area.
Still plenty of time though.



It won't be long before one of the models does an NOLA doom run.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 603. TropicalAnalystwx13:
95L has a great structure. Robust LLC with plenty of spiral banding.



It looks stronger than the previous one that became Ingrid.
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Quoting 595. Patrap:
Anywhere from Mexico to Florida.what a cone.
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606. VR46L
Quoting 599. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Though upwelling was not an issue for Ingrid as forecast, it did cool the waters across the Bay of Campeche. Don't get me wrong though, they're still 27-28C, plenty warm to support a tropical cyclone.



I will never understand posting temperature anomalies when talking about actual temperatures ..JMO

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When will it emerge in the BOC..Wednesday late evening..
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NASA satelite images show the changing Artic sea ice coverage. from August 2012 (left) to August 2013 (right) -- a growth of about a million square miles. (NASA)

About a million more square miles of ocean are covered in ice in 2013 than in 2012, a whopping 60 percent increase -- and a dramatic deviation from predictions of an "ice-free Arctic in 2013,"

Arctic sea ice averaged 2.35 million square miles in August 2013, as compared to the low point of 1.32 million square miles recorded on Sept. 16, 2012, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. A chart published Sept. 8 by NSIDC shows the dramatic rise this year, putting total ice cover within two standard deviations of the 30-year average.

Noting the year over year surge, one scientist even argued that "global cooling" was here.

"We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped,” Anastasios Tsonis of the University of Wisconsin told London’s Mail on Sunday.

The surge in Arctic ice is a dramatic change from last year’s record-setting lows, which fueled dire predictions of an imminent ice-free summer. A 2007 BBC report said the Arctic could be ice free in 2013 -- a theory NASA still echoes today.

"[An ice-free Arctic is] definitely coming, and coming sooner than we previously expected,“ Walt Meier, a glaciologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md, told LiveScience last month. “We're looking at when as opposed to if.”

Noting the growth in ice, the Snow and Ice Data Center said that coverage was still well below the 30-year average. And the year over year growth in ice is “largely irrelevant,” argued The Guardian, noting that more ice is to be expected after the record low a year ago.

“We should not often expect to observe records in consecutive years. 2012 shattered the previous record low sea ice extent; hence 'regression towards the mean' told us that 2013 would likely have a higher minimum extent,” wrote Dana Nuccitelli.

Meanwhile, global surface temperatures have been relatively flat over the past decade and a half, according to data from the U.K.’s weather-watching Met Office.

A leaked draft of the next major climate report from the U.N. cites numerous causes to explain the slowdown in warming: greater-than-expected ash from volcanoes, a decline in heat from the sun, more heat being absorbed by the deep oceans, and so on.

Climate skeptics have spent months debating the weather pattern, some citing it as evidence that global warming itself has decelerated or even stopped.

"The absence of any significant change in the global annual average temperature over the past 16 years has become one of the most discussed topics in climate science," wrote David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation in June. "It has certainly focused the debate about the relative importance of greenhouse gas forcing of the climate versus natural variability."

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/09/09/arctic-s ea-ice-up-60-percent-in-2013/#ixzz2fBhQYbJb
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95L has a great structure. Robust LLC with plenty of spiral banding.

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ANOTHER DOOM AND GLOOM FOR THE ARTIC!

After 2012 saw record-shattering sea ice melt in the Arctic during the summer months, 2013 is highly unlikely to repeat the feat, NASA reported Friday. With cooler temperatures expected to the return to the world's most northerly latitudes and re-freezing set to begin in the coming weeks, this summer will likely go down as just one in a trend of lesser-ice years, but not the one with the least.

The extent of Arctic sea ice stretched a mere 1.3-million square miles when refreezing began on Sept. 16, 2012, breaking the previous record low by more than a quarter-million square miles. By Aug. 27 last year, the old record -- set in 2007 -- had already been surpassed.

This summer has fared significantly better though, as NASA reports that 2013 is unlikely to see a new record. Aug. 21 saw an ice extent of 2.25 million square miles, compared with 1.67 million square miles on the same day last year.

Related:
Loss of Arctic sea ice will utterly change northern ecosystem
Arctic sea ice shrinks to lowest June extent ever observed

It does, however, continue a trend of overall downward extent that bodes ill for the future of Arctic sea ice -- and the animals and ecosystems that depend on it. Even this year's ice extent on Aug. 21 paled in comparison to 1996, when sea ice covered the span of a whopping 3.16 million square miles.

“Even if this year ends up being the sixth- or seventh-lowest extent (on record), what matters is that the 10 lowest extents recorded have happened during the last 10 years,” said Walt Meier, a glaciologist with NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “The long-term trend is strongly downward.”

Meanwhile, NASA release this computer animation of sea ice lost thus far in 2013:

The National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado affirmed NASA's prediction that 2013 wasn't as bad as last year.

"Arctic sea ice extent maintained a steady, near-average pace of retreat through the first half of August, making it highly unlikely that a new record low minimum will be reached this year," the NSIDC reported.

Both the NSIDC and NASA said that a particularly vicious "Arctic cyclone" contributed to the late-season loss of ice in 2012 and adding to the already faster-than-normal loss of ice.

"Last year’s storm went across an area of open water and mixed the smaller pieces of ice with the relatively warm water, so it melted very rapidly,” Meier said. “This year, the storms hit in an area of more consolidated ice. The storms this year were more typical summer storms; last year’s was the unusual one.”

Additionally, the continued lows of sea ice in recent years has led to thinning ice pack, increasing open water leads in the Arctic and contributing to the formation of polynyas, sections of open water surrounded by ice.

One region where sea ice has been particularly stubborn is in Alaska's Beaufort and Chukchi seas -- extending even down through the Bering Strait -- though the NSIDC reported that those exceptions to the receding-ice rule were beginning to fade faster as the melting season has worn on.

"Retreat rates increased slightly in the western Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea, but ice cover remains extensive in those regions compared to 2012," the NSIDC said.

Freezing typically begins anytime between early and late-September, with the average in mid-September. The NSIDC said it anticipates this year's low extent will hover somewhere around 2 million square miles.

Contact Ben Anderson at ben(at)alaskadispatch.com
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601. VR46L
Quoting 598. clwstmchasr:


Yep. I think the NHC should put a cone out covering Tampico to Tampa. I think we'll have a much better idea once it is in the BOC by Thursday.


LMAO !!!

Thats one large cone ...
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Larimer County Flood Information Update: September 17 at 2 PM

Information provided by the Larimer County Sheriff's Office


Despite a delay in getting the helicopters up in the air Monday because of the weather, crews were able to evacuate 420 people yesterday, which include 250 people from the Pinewood Springs area. Weather today is expected to be very good and is allowing for a full day of rescue operations. Weather outlook for the rest of the week looks favorable with only slight chances for afternoon storms in the middle of the week.


LATEST INFORMATION
- Air rescues continue today and there are approximately 600 stranded people left to evacuate in isolated areas.
- FEMA's two, 80-person search and rescue teams along with Larimer County Sheriff's Office Deputies were dropped into numerous locations to begin assessing the damage and searching for stranded residents.
-420 people were rescued yesterday, September 16th. 250 of those rescued were from the Pinewood Springs area.
-Total number of rescued as of Tuesday morning, September 17th is 1,041 people

More information is available at the Colorado Office of Emergency Management
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Though upwelling was not an issue for Ingrid as forecast, it did cool the waters across the Bay of Campeche. Don't get me wrong though, they're still 27-28C, plenty warm to support a tropical cyclone.

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Thing that makes this a dangerous situation, long time over WARM waters.
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Good consensus this afternoon with the ECMWF, CMC, NAVGEM, FIMs, GFS all showing development of 95L into at least a weak tropical storm. CMC/NAVGEM/ECMWF are the most aggressive with development.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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