Tropical Storms Ingrid and Manuel Hit Mexico, Killing 21

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on September 16, 2013

Tropical Storm Ingrid hit the Mexican coast about 200 miles south of the Texas border with top sustained winds of 65 mph at approximately 8 am EDT Monday morning. Ingrid weakened below hurricane strength just before landfall, and it appears that strong upper-level winds from the outflow of Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have been responsible for keeping Ingrid weaker than expected for the past 24 hours. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, but the storm is bringing torrential rains to portions of Mexico a few hundred miles south of the Texas border. Flooding from the combined one-two punch of Ingrid on the Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Manuel on Mexico's Pacific coast are already being blamed for the deaths of 21 people, according to AP. However, Ingrid is also bringing beneficial rains to areas of northern Mexico and South Texas that are in extreme drought.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Brownsville, Texas radar of Tropical Storm Ingrid at landfall, near 8 am EDT September 16, 2013.

Ingrid was the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and Ingrid's peak intensity of 85 mph on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28. Ingrid is the third named storm to hit Mexico's Gulf of Mexico coast so far in 2013, which is a very high level of tropical activity for the region. Only 1933 (seven storms), 1936 (six storms), and 2005 (five storms) had more tropical storms or hurricanes make landfall on Mexico's Gulf of Mexico coast. Two other years have also had three such landfalls, 1944 and 1931.




Figure 2. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013 (top) and 8 am EDT September 15, 2013 (bottom). Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico both days. Image credit: Conagua.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for Tropical Storm Ingrid from the 06Z (2 am EDT) September 16, 2013 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid brought a storm surge of one foot on Sunday afternoon and Monday morning to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning is in effect. Seas were eight feet high Tuesday morning at buoy 42020, located 58 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, and large waves are causing dangerous surf all along the South Texas coast. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas ay present, but 2 - 5" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3 - 4" of rain, and coastal and mountain areas of Mexico 100 - 200 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The remains of Hurricane Humberto are regenerating back into a tropical storm, but newly re-formed Humberto will stay far out to sea and will not be a threat to any land areas.

An area of disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean will move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by late this week. NHC gave the disturbance 5-day development odds of 20% in their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook. Moisture from the disturbance is likely to stream northeastwards across the Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, Florida, and the Western Bahamas during the period 7 - 14 days from now, bringing heavy rainfall.

The tropical Atlantic will be dominated by dry air this week, and the models are not showing any development from new African tropical waves during the coming week. With the African monsoon now beginning to wane, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) expected to be in a phase that will bring sinking air to the tropical Atlantic during the remainder of September, the Cape Verde hurricane season is likely over; I give only a 30% chance that we will see a tropical storm develop between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa during the remainder of hurricane season. However, we will likely get several more tropical storms forming in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or waters near the Bahamas during the remainder of the season.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 266. Thrawst:
south GOMEX and NW Caribbean seem to be the hot spots this september.


Lots of residual moisture left in SW GOM now, and loks like SE GOM could get active soon.
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You're kidding me right NHC?



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Quoting 280. MrMixon:
The trip from Boulder to Nederland just went from 20 minutes to 2+ hours...

-----------------------

Boulder Canyon Update

SEPTEMBER 16, 2013

CDOT has told the Town to expect Boulder Canyon to be closed for one month for repairs. They do not expect any soft openings at this time. We will continue provide updates as we receive them. We understand that Hwy. 119 south to Hwy 6 is cause for inconvenience to many folks, but it is the safest route to get to Boulder at this time.

Source: Town of Nederland





Hey, MrMixon - great photo, per usual. What is a 'soft opening'? Does that mean temporary? (I'm thinking in terms of a post-hurricane scenario, where residents are sometimes let back in for brief periods of time.)
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Quoting 269. nofailsafe:


Looks like a front to me:



If that's the case, then the 500mb subtropical ridge has to back out. Which the GFS seems to support.

Yep!
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283. VR46L
Quoting 281. biff4ugo:
I didn't know ingrid was a gemini.


She is just plain weird ...
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I didn't know ingrid was a gemini.
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The trip from Boulder to Nederland just went from 20 minutes to 2 hours...

-----------------------

Boulder Canyon Update

SEPTEMBER 16, 2013

CDOT has told the Town to expect Boulder Canyon to be closed for one month for repairs. They do not expect any soft openings at this time. We will continue provide updates as we receive them. We understand that Hwy. 119 south to Hwy 6 is cause for inconvenience to many folks, but it is the safest route to get to Boulder at this time.

Source: Town of Nederland


Credit Dan Greenwood / KUNC


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Quoting 261. JRRP:

no kidding
Okay! Okay! We can go do the groceries alright GEM? Geeeez...
Member Since: March 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 957
Disgusting news. Death toll is rising every time I hit "refresh" on google news. Condolences to the relatives. Stay safe everyone.

12 killed in Navy Yard shooting rampage; suspects may be on loose
By Barbara Starr and Catherine E. Shoichet, CNN
September 16, 2013 -- Updated 1814 GMT (0214 HKT)

Sorry for OT. I'm really out now.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 91 Comments: 10239
18z Best Track for Humberto up to 40kts.

AL, 09, 2013091618, , BEST, 0, 272N, 434W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 90, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M
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he National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Bexar County...

* until 300 PM CDT

* at 100 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists have
detected showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall across
eastern Bexar County. This activity will move to the northwest
across the remainder of Bexar County over the next hour. Doppler
radar estimates rainfall amounts up to one inch per hour are
possible with the stronger storms. Minor street flooding across
the city of San Antonio is possible through 300 PM.

* Runoff from this excessive rainfall will cause minor flooding to
occur... especially along small streams and near low water
crossings. Some locations that will experience minor flooding
include... San Antonio... Universal City... Alamo Heights... Calaveras
Lake... China Grove... Cross Mountain... Elmendorf... Helotes...
Hollywood Park and Kirby.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from this storm will cause minor flooding of small
creeks and streams... urban areas... highways... streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely.
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Quoting 273. Civicane49:


tropical storms and wannabe hurricanes,you barely touched your food.
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274. VR46L
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 267. biff4ugo:
Looks like this season is parbuckling around.


I had to look up the word 'parbuckling'. Learn something new every time I get on the blog :)
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Quoting 260. nofailsafe:


If you mean more widespread continued drought, I'd guess you're right on the money. But what specifically are you referring to?


In regards to Texas and the seemingly recurring potential rain event that is as elusive as the New Siberian Unisquatch: "I'm waiting for my ship to come in but with my luck I'll be at the airport"...Either a blocking high is in place when a system forms and could come our way, or when high's are in place perfectly to channel a system our way, the air is dry as the Sahara. Long story short I've resolved myself to use the phrase "I'll believe it when I see it" more often than not these days.
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Quoting 261. JRRP:

no kidding


Confused.
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Quoting 265. RGVtropicalWx13:



Looks like a front to me:



If that's the case, then the 500mb subtropical ridge has to back out. Which the GFS seems to support.
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Looks like this season is parbuckling around.
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south GOMEX and NW Caribbean seem to be the hot spots this september.
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Quoting 260. nofailsafe:


If you mean more widespread continued drought, I'd guess you're right on the money. But what specifically are you referring to?

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99W (Which should be upgraded to a TD by the JTWC later today) is looking good



Might become a tropical storm later today at the rate it's going.

OSCAT pass much earlier showed some 30kt wind barbs:



ASCAT got half of it a bit later showing 25kt wind barbs a 30kt wind barb:



It missed a good chunk of it though and I think there are stronger winds on the south/south west part.
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Quoting 251. sunlinepr:
Is it possible for the S Calif deserts to generate a similar SAL emission into the Pac?



The prevailing winds are from the west - hence the special designation for "Santa Ana" winds (coming from the east).



Source - wikipedia, of course ;)
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Quoting 251. sunlinepr:
Is it possible for the S Calif deserts to generate a similar SAL emission into the Pac?



I think it has to do more with the cold current coming down off the NA continent, combined with a persistent area of high pressure.


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261. JRRP

no kidding
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Quoting 231. RitaEvac:
Parameters and teleconnections are pointing to a massive widespread event over TX within a week


If you mean more widespread continued drought, I'd guess you're right on the money. But what specifically are you referring to?
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL...IS
CENTERED NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED
AND DISORGANIZED...AND ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS THE REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
COOLER WATERS WHERE DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY. THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&
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Quoting 250. Envoirment:


I got caught in a hail shower earlier! Luckily I was on the bus and wasn't pelted. It lasted a good 15 minutes and was the first time in a few years that I've seen it! They hail stones were only small (less than a pea), but they came down very heavy at times! Was rather exciting. :D


:) Envoirment.





Two screenshots: Romantic cruise evening on Costa Concordia ;/ At least salvage is making progress.
Costa Concordia in Italy freed from rocks

Have I good evening and night everybody despite bad news from everywhere, and not only weatherwise.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 91 Comments: 10239
Quoting 222. StormTrackerScott:


It's coming man! These are some serious totals for just 8 days.



Pink over North Florida, wow that escalated quickly. Will have to look into that, hard to ignore that kind of forecast.
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256. IKE
Ingrid....

1:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 16


Location: 23.7N 98.6W

Moving: W at 8 mph

Min pressure: 998 mb

Max sustained: 45 mph
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 38112
255. VR46L
Texas really lucked out ...

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Man we are in mid sept NOT in mid FEBRUARY. GOSH!!
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Look at the Leeward Islands then tell me IF THIS IS NORMAL!!
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Quoting 222. StormTrackerScott:


It's coming man! These are some serious totals for just 8 days.



I just can't believe that there is never something for us

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Quoting 247. daddyjames:


That area is typically dry - but the monsoon sucked all of the moisture out of the region.
Is it possible for the S Calif deserts to generate a similar SAL emission into the Pac?

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Quoting 171. barbamz:
Good afternoon/evening fellow bloggers, just with a very wet weather roundup from BBC (Storms batter Mexico and Japan) which won't bring a lot of news for most of you. Trying to catch up a bit on what was happening, and I'm very sorry to learn about this new awful shooting.


European IR loop with "Roland".



I got caught in a hail shower earlier! Luckily I was on the bus and wasn't pelted. It lasted a good 15 minutes and was the first time in a few years that I've seen it! The hail stones were only small (smaller than a pea), but they came down very heavy at times! Was rather exciting. :D
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249. VR46L
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AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Quoting 241. sunlinepr:
Someone Here knows???.... why with the wv filter the area W of S California shows a black color? (Very dry area) Is there the equivalente of a SAL there or SC air layer (SCAL)?... Looks like a very dry area....

IR View



Enhanced WV view... (Black area)



That area is typically dry - but the monsoon sucked all of the moisture out of the region.
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246. LafLA
If the local mets in South Louisiana are right they are hinting on the same thing Scott is referring to although not quite as dramatic as him :) I am just a lurker not a "want-a-be" pro by any means. They are saying BOC moving East to possibly S. Fla/Bahamas nxt week.
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The CMC takes the Caribbean distrubance into the gulf and into Texas as a tropical depression:





Hopefully it's right!
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Quoting 235. sunlinepr:


Should it be the one deeping from W Washington State? Cold front?
Cooling down, will kill the left H season...

But will activate the Atl seas...



Looks like. In combination with the low further north in Canada.

Appears as if it taps into the lingering moisture from the Mexican monsoon, dragging a series of lows off to the NE.

GFS 120 hrs.


GFS 150 hrs


Although, there seems to be potential (taken with a grain of salt at the moment) for something to spin up.
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Quoting 242. StormTrackerScott:
If you know how to read this map then look near the Yucatan.



That location reminds me of Wilma in 2005.
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If you know how to read this map then look near the Yucatan.

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Someone Here knows???.... why with the wv filter the area W of S California shows a black color? (Very dry area) Is there the equivalente of a SAL there or SC air layer (SCAL)?... Looks like a very dry area....

IR View



Enhanced WV view... (Black area)

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Quoting 230. Sfloridacat5:
Just wondering why NOAA along with the NHC and NWS show a front dropping down in the next 3-7 days? I'm not associating this with tropical weather. I'm just justifying that a frontal boundry is expected to move south and stall out along the gulf coast.


No one is disputing that there is a front across the northern Gulf Coast. My point is there is no front attached to the system in the Gulf the models are developing into a weak to moderate TS.

This system near the Yucatan isn't attached to a front and won't be once it gets in the Gulf.

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Who knows, maybe this shot from Sept 14 will be the one with most tropical action at once in 2013?


GOES Satellite catches three tropical cyclones in one shot, sees Gabrielle absorbed
Source: Phys.org., 1 hour ago by Rob Gutro
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-09-satellite-tropical-c yclones-shot-gabrielle.html#jCp
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 91 Comments: 10239
a storm near bacalar Q. Roo Mexico, near Belize


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Quoting 226. hydrus:


Very active W Pac
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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