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Hurricane Season is Half Over; Will it Remain Quiet?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on September 10, 2013

September 10 marks the traditional halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the first half of the hurricane season of 2013 is making its mark in the history books as one of the least active such periods on record. Going back to before when the Hurricane Hunters first began flying in 1944, there has been only one hurricane season that made it past the half-way point without a hurricane forming: the El Niño year of 2002, when Hurricane Gustav formed at 8 am EDT on September 11. Tropical Storm Humberto is looking poised to become a hurricane later today, and 2013 will likely end up ranking in 2nd place for latest formation of the season's first hurricane, going back to 1941. Here are the Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1941 in which the first hurricane did not form until after September 7:

2002: September 11, Hurricane Gustav
2013: September 10+ (Nothing yet)
1984: September 10, Hurricane Diana
2001: September 8, Hurricane Erin

Prior to 1944, there were four hurricane seasons that had the first hurricane form after September 15:

1914: No hurricanes in the Atlantic
1907: No hurricanes in the Atlantic
1905: October 8
1941: September 16

According to NHC, August 10 is the average date the first Atlantic hurricane arrives, and the season's third hurricane usually develops by September 9. So, assuming Humberto makes it to hurricane status, we are two hurricanes behind the average season pace. An average season brings six hurricanes, two of them being intense hurricanes.

Remarkably low Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) so far in 2013
The first half of 2013's hurricane season had one of the lowest Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) totals on record for the Atlantic. ACE is calculated as the square of the wind speed every 6 hours for every named storm with at least 40 mph sustained winds (scaled by a factor of 10,000 for usability.) Since the damage potential of a hurricane is proportional to the square or cube of the maximum wind speed, ACE is not only a measure of tropical cyclone activity, but also a measure of the damage potential. During the 20-year period 1981 - 2010, the Atlantic averaged 104 ACE units, and the 20-year average ACE through September 9 was 50. Through September 9 of 2013, we've managed just 9.6 ACE units, about 20% of average. Since the current active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, no other year had a lower ACE by this point in the year. Since reliable satellite-based ACE records began in 1966, there have been seven years with comparable levels of ACE by this point in the season. Four of these years were El Niño years, when we expect hurricane activity to be low due to high wind shear. The other years had August ocean temperatures in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR, from 10 - 20°N, 20 - 70°W) that were cooler than in 2013, though the ocean temperatures in 1988 were only 0.1°C cooler than in 2013. This year's combination of no El Niño, warm MDR SSTs, and an exceptionally low first half of the season ACE is thus an event unparalleled in the historical record, going back to 1966.


Figure 1. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) totals for the first half of the Atlantic hurricane season, through September 9, 2013, were among the lowest on record, since reliable satellite data began in 1966. Other years with low first-half-of-the-season ACE occurred during El Niño years, or when August sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were cooler.

Forecast for the next two weeks: below average activity
The main reason for the quiet first half of the season has been the large amount of dry, stable air over the Atlantic. The primary source of this dry air has been the Sahara desert of Africa. However, dry air from Northeast Brazil may also have contributed, argues wunderblogger Lee Grenci. That region of the country experienced a record $8.3 billion drought in 2013--the most expensive natural disaster in Brazil's history. Even with all the dry air we've seen over the Atlantic in 2013, it is really remarkable that activity has been so low when all of the other factors--lack of an El Niño, wind shear near climatological averages, an active African Monsoon spitting out plenty of tropical waves, and above average ocean temperatures--have favored development. Instability increased over the tropical Atlantic over the last few days of August and the first week of September, thanks to the influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. Instability was also boosted by a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that brought rising air to the Atlantic. This increase in instability helped the formation of Gabrielle, Humberto, and Tropical Depression Eight, and may help boost the odds of a potential tropical storm forming this weekend over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. The influence of the MJO is fading over the Atlantic, though. Beginning next week, we will be entering a phase of the MJO where it will likely bring more stable, sinking air to the Tropical Atlantic. This suppressed phase of the MJO could last through the first week of October. The models are also pointing to another outbreak of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) coming off the coast of Africa this weekend, which will keep the Tropical Atlantic dryer than usual next week. The steering pattern over the next two weeks features a strong trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast, giving high odds that any hurricane that manages to form and approach the U.S. will recurve out to sea, without affecting any land areas. So keep your fingers crossed--we're doing unusually well for this point in the hurricane season, with no landfalling hurricanes, and it looks like we have above average chances of keeping it that way deep into September.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2013 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was been much lower than average during most of August, primarily due to outbreaks of dry air from Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Low instability reduces the potential for tropical storm formation. During the last few days of August and the first week of September, an MJO event boosted instability. The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. When the area of increased thunderstorms associated with the MJO is located in the Western Hemisphere, it brings rising air over the Tropical Atlantic, increasing instability. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Be prepared for a destructive hurricane in 2013
Residents of Hurricane Alley shouldn't assume the rest of the season will end with a whimper, though. All it takes is one bad hurricane to ruin an otherwise quiet hurricane season. Recall that last year's worst storm--Hurricane Sandy--didn't occur until the third week of October. Another thing to consider: the season with the greatest similarity to what we've seen during the first half of the 2013 season was 1988. That year, we also had unusual quietness before September 10, no El Niño, and above average ocean temperatures in the MDR. But the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever recorded up to that time ripped through the Caribbean, Hurricane Gilbert, as well as two other major hurricanes. I flew into Hurricane Gilbert at the height of its fury 25 years ago, and plan to recount the story of that amazing flight this Friday.

Two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic
The dearth of Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the Atlantic will get made up some in the next few days, as we have two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic for the first time this year. Tropical Storm Gabrielle reformed this morning, about 160 miles south of Bermuda. Satellite loops show a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms have developed near the core of the storm, despite the presence of high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. Wind shear is expected to remain high for the next three days, which will likely keep Gabrielle below hurricane strength. The storm is expected to bring 40 mph winds and heavy rain to Bermuda Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. On Friday and Saturday, moisture from Gabrielle or its remnants will likely bring heavy rain to the Canadian Maritime Provinces.

Tropical Storm Humberto is churning across the far Eastern Atlantic, and is expected to turn northwards and intensify into a hurricane later today. Satellite loops show that Humberto is a small but well-organized storm that is staying just west of the Cape Verde Islands. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

The models are bullish on developing a tropical depression in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Saturday. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 10% and 5-day odds of 60%. Any storm developing the Gulf would likely track west-northwest into the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border, and could bring heavy rains as far north as Corpus Christi early next week.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1958. weathermanwannabe
2:49 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
All of that land interaction with 93L, and what may or may not happen to the circulation after the interaction, is a big x factor and there is no way the models can figure that out to a final solution. Way to early to have a clue of what may happen with this one or where it will end up.

Just watch it over the next 4 days.
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1957. HurricaneAndre
2:45 PM GMT on September 11, 2013

000
WTNT44 KNHC 111435
TCDAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN REVEALING AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE...
WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED AT THE MID-LEVELS ON A SSMI/S PASS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WHICH IS SURROUNDED BY A COUPLE OF DISTINCT
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN HAVE REACHED 4.4 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
ON THIS BASIS..THE INITIAL INTENSITY AS BEEN SET AT 70 KNOTS.

HUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE IT
REACHES COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN AS INDICATED IN THE NHC
FORECAST.

AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HUMBERTO HAS MADE THE EXPECTED SHARP TURN
TO THE NORTH...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS BEEN STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
HUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS IS THE GENERAL SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY
PROVIDED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT
SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS TRACK
WILL KEEP HUMBERTO MOVING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 16.7N 29.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 18.2N 29.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 20.0N 29.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 21.5N 30.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 23.0N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 24.0N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 24.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 26.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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1956. unknowncomic
2:40 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1838. GeoffreyWPB:
Has CaribBoy seen his yellow circle on ex-98L?
Looks like a squall line headed for the Antilles.
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1955. hurricanehanna
2:38 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1954. moonlightcowboy:


Hard to tell, Hanna. A couple of things you can watch, a sfc map and a water vapor loop. Look at the central plains front on the map, then look at it in the wv loop, and you can sort of discern what it's doing, how it's moving, how fast it's moving, how deep and its strength. Like always, it'll be about the timing and strength of the storm. We wait, we watch! :)




Thanks for the great info Moonlight! :)
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1954. moonlightcowboy
2:36 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
.
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1953. CybrTeddy
2:33 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1929. CaneHunter031472:
Well at this angle entering land, I'm starting to think that we won't see much coming out of this, but it still has model support so we'll see.



Wow, the models really don't know what to think of the pattern. Looks like it'll have several days over water, some want to take it north, others want to bury it into Mexico. ECMWF/GFS solution seems the most likely.

Humberto is intensifying.
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1952. air360
2:33 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
That spin off the Florida coast is crazy. It always amazes me to see spin like that yet it not really be anything. Funny how something can look horrible yet not be anything at all
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1951. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:33 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1950. cctxshirl
2:32 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1946. centex:
Will wait another day before I write off 93L moving up into south Texas. The last 24 hour change keeps it in Mexico. Still hoping it will switch back tomorrow. Hermine was last real beneficial system I remember. Took this ironic photo after Hermine in Cedar Park TX on small lake on Brushy Creek. Preview cropped the "Keep Texas Beautiful" so see it actually shows.






Just saw your post. Thanks for updating on 93L.
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1949. CaneHunter031472
2:32 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1942. daddyjames:


We'll see what happens, but the last two runs of the GFS have it meandering around the coast of Mexico for a week or more. If this holds out, and enough precipitation affects land areas, well this could be pretty devastating - regardless of how much it strengthens.


I hope not, but I do hope Texas gets the rain they really need it.
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1948. cat6band
2:32 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
I'm seeing what a couple of people on here are seeing...a N'ly movement with 93L. And that wouldn't be too good for anyone. As the saying goes (I think), the stronger a storm gets, the more poleward it goes...everyone on the entire Gulfcoast should probably be watching what this one does.
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1947. cctxshirl
2:32 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Regarding 93L-any guesses on this one? I'm asking because Port Aransas bound on the 19th for big reunion. This could put a real damper on things.
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1946. centex
2:31 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Will wait another day before I write off 93L moving up into south Texas. The last 24 hour change keeps it in Mexico. Still hoping it will switch back tomorrow. Hermine was last real beneficial system I remember. Took this ironic photo after Hermine in Cedar Park TX on small lake on Brushy Creek. Preview cropped the "Keep Texas Beautiful" so see it actually shows.




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1945. unknowncomic
2:31 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
In think this is ex-98L and the 10% chance from the NHC. May surprise.

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1944. GatorWX
2:31 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
A few moments ago, 12 years ago, the second tower fell.
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1943. hurricanes2018
2:29 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
here we go!!! fall weather for the east coast!! we have one and two and three!!! wow! keep all the tropical storms and hurricanes out to sea for the usa this week and next weekend!
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1942. daddyjames
2:29 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1929. CaneHunter031472:
Well at this angle entering land, I'm starting to think that we won't see much coming out of this, but it still has model support so we'll see.



We'll see what happens, but the last two runs of the GFS have it meandering around the coast of Mexico for a week or more. If this holds out, and enough precipitation affects land areas, well this could be pretty devastating - regardless of how much it strengthens.
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1941. HurricaneAndre
2:27 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
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1939. RitaEvac
2:25 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1931. SouthernIllinois:
OMG LUV Summertime Sadness now! It SO grew on me. SOOOOOOO....us 7 girls yesterday at the pool party starting belting it out in the pool when it came on the radio. It was HILARIOUS but we sounded so awful! haha.


7? you have pic? lol
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1938. GatorWX
2:25 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1933. hurricanes2018:
Link my new blog!!


Your blogs have more comments than Dr Master's. ;)
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1936. stormpetrol
2:24 PM GMT on September 11, 2013


WE getting 40 mph gusts from 93L, this could be one hugh storm in the GOM.
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1935. RitaEvac
2:24 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Need to quit watching models, and watch satellite loops of present movement. The storm is not gonna do what models are showing, it's always different, and the models will be playing catch up
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1934. sporteguy03
2:24 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1931. SouthernIllinois:
OMG LUV Summertime Sadness now! It SO grew on me. SOOOOOOO....us 7 girls yesterday at the pool party starting belting it out in the pool when it came on the radio. It was HILARIOUS but we sounded so awful! haha.

Lana Del Ray?
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1933. hurricanes2018
2:22 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Link my new blog!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1932. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:22 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET September 11 2013
=================================

The easternmost circulation may have a surface circulation located near 5.1S 88.3E (according to OSCAT pass at 0545Z) associated with a 1006 hPa low. The associated convective activity is locally strong but is still fluctuating and disorganized.

Development of a tropical depression is not expected for the next 72 hours
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1930. Naga5000
2:20 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1917. scottsvb:
Did Dr Masters do a blog on this? Sorry but I haven't been on in the past few days.

Link


Artic sea ice is up 60% from last year


See my post #1824.
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1929. CaneHunter031472
2:20 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1920. daddyjames:


Not wishing it on Mexico either.
Well at this angle entering land, I'm starting to think that we won't see much coming out of this, but it still has model support so we'll see.

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1928. GatorWX
2:19 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
It's coming together. It does appear to have a northerly motion at the moment.


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1927. indianrivguy
2:19 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1910. RitaEvac:
No more summertime sadness, it's on again...


Summertime Blues.. ain't no cure..

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1926. scottsvb
2:17 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1917. scottsvb:
Did Dr Masters do a blog on this? Sorry but I haven't been on in the past few days.

Link


Artic sea ice is up 60% from last year
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1925. HurricaneAndre
2:17 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1924. Skyepony:
Humberto close up.. Click pic for loop.

Bonita.
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1924. Skyepony (Mod)
2:15 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Humberto close up.. Click pic for loop.

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1923. StormTrackerScott
2:15 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1916. rmbjoe1954:


Hi Scott-

ex-98L can still get its act together. This time of the year anything can and will happen.

There is lots of lightening and thunder now in St. Lucie County.


Yeah I can see that. Stay safe!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1922. Stoopid1
2:15 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Poking out an eye to see our reactions to him trolling the record;

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1921. indianrivguy
2:14 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1883. RitaEvac:
Expect a large beastly circulation when this thing finally ramps up. All attention will be on the GOM soon.


Interesting you should say that. We have a big spinner building off the Florida Georgia coast right now. However, even though the surface circulation is confused, the rain is trying to line up in accordance to the low to our southwest... perhaps the beginning of squall lines or feeder bands. You can see the offshore spinner ripping the tops off the thunderstorms as they try and form on radar..
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1920. daddyjames
2:14 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1888. StormTrackerScott:


Hopefully the 12Z model suite will be better for you guys. As all the models this morning are now showing a strong ridge camping out over Texas basically shutting down any chance of rain except for the Brownsville area.


Not wishing it on Mexico either.
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1919. GatorWX
2:13 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1904. SouthernIllinois:

YUP YUP!


About as good as it gets here: Ivan '04.

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1917. scottsvb
2:13 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Did Dr Masters do a blog on this? Sorry but I haven't been on in the past few days.

Link


Artic sea ice is up 60% from last year
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1916. rmbjoe1954
2:13 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1900. StormTrackerScott:
Infact ex 98L's 850 vorticity looks better than 93L's.



Hi Scott-

ex-98L can still get its act together. This time of the year anything can and will happen.

There is lots of lightening and thunder now in St. Lucie County.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1914. Torito
2:12 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1902. SouthernIllinois:

It looks like crap.


it has a pinhole eye though. :P
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1913. CaneHunter031472
2:12 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1894. StormTrackerScott:


It has already moved well inland.





If that's the track the models are now predicting, I don't see much happening with this invest then. What a tease :-(
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1912. VR46L
2:11 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
Quoting 1905. SouthernIllinois:

Depends on who gets it!


LOL!!!
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1911. nrtiwlnvragn
2:11 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
On the latest in the season developing hurricane thingy....
Currently Best Track list Humberto as becoming a hurricane at 12Z, which previous blog entries have said was the previous record time........... so is it a tie for the record?


AL 09 2013091106 BEST 0 156N 287W 60 995 TS 34
AL 09 2013091106 BEST 0 156N 287W 60 995 TS 50
AL 09 2013091112 BEST 0 163N 290W 65 989 HU 34
AL 09 2013091112 BEST 0 163N 290W 65 989 HU 50
AL 09 2013091112 BEST 0 163N 290W 65 989 HU 64
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1910. RitaEvac
2:11 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
No more summertime sadness, it's on again...
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1909. Skyepony (Mod)
2:11 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
BUSY INTERSECTION: Last night, NASA's all-sky fireball network recorded nearly two dozen fireballs streaking over the southern USA. Their orbits are shown here, all intersecting at a certain blue dot in space:

In the diagram, the orbits are color coded by velocity. Speeds ranged from 16 to 71 km/s (36,000 to 159,000 mph).

Most of these fast-moving meteoroids were "sporadics"--that is, random specks of space dust associated with no organized debris stream. The inner solar system is littered with such meteoroids, which strike Earth every day as our planet orbits the sun.

However, some of the meteoroids were not so random. The NASA cameras captured five epsilon Perseids, members of a little-known shower that peaks every year in early-to-mid September. The parent comet is unknown, but there is little doubt than an organized epsilon Perseid debris stream exists. In most Septembers, the epsilon Perseid rate is little more than 5 meteors per hour, but in 2008 the shower produced an outburst five times as active. Perhaps 2013 is a good year for epsilon Perseids, too.


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1908. HurricaneAndre
2:11 PM GMT on September 11, 2013

000
NOUS42 KNHC 101444
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 10 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-101

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N 92W AT 12/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: POSSIBLE GLOBAL HAWK MISSION FOR 12/1100Z

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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