Tropical Storm Humberto Drenching the Cape Verde Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2013

Tropical Storm Humberto, the eighth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Humberto has formed unusually far to the east, between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are flying in the southern Cape Verde Islands, and Humberto's rain bands have already arrived in capital city of Praia, where 1.46" of rain has fallen, with sustained winds as high as 26 mph. Humberto's west to west-northwest motion at 12 mph will keep the storm just south and west of the islands through Tuesday, but this path will be close enough to bring potentially dangerous rainfall amounts of 3 - 6 inches to the southern islands. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized with plenty of spin and a growing amount of heavy thunderstorms. The models are bullish of developing Humberto into a hurricane just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday. If Humberto reaches hurricane strength before 8 am EDT on Wednesday, 2013 will avoid setting the record for the latest formation date of the Atlantic's first hurricane, dating back the beginning of the aircraft reconnaissance era in 1944. Humberto is expected to take a sharp northwards turn later this week, which will carry the storm into a region of ocean where no land areas would likely be at risk from a strike, with the possible exception of the Azores Islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Humberto, taken at 7:45 am EDT September 9, 2013. Image credit: NOAA.

Cape Verde Islands Hurricane History
The Atlantic's most terrifying and destructive hurricanes typically start as tropical waves that move off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verde Islands. This class of storms is referred to as "Cape Verde hurricanes", in reference to their origin. Despite the fact that the Atlantic's most feared type of hurricanes are named after the Cape Verde Islands, these islands rarely receive significant impacts from one of their namesake storms. This is because tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have very little time to organize into tropical storms before arriving at the Cape Verde Islands, which lie just 350 miles west of the African coast. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, there have been only two deadly tropical cyclones in Cape Verde history. The deadliest was Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Fran brought sustained winds of 35 mph and torrential rains to the islands. The rains triggered flash flooding that killed 29 - 31 people and caused damages of almost $3 million (1984 dollars.) The other deadly named storm was Tropical Storm Beryl of 1982, which passed about 30 miles south of the southwestern islands on August 29, with 45 mph winds. The storm's heavy rains killed three people on Brava Island, injured 122, and caused $3 million in damage.

The most recent named storm to affect the islands was Hurricane Julia of 2010, which was the easternmost Category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic. Julia passed about 50 miles south of Sao Filipe in the southern Cape Verde Islands as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, bringing wind gusts of 30 mph to the islands and some minor flooding.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern Cape Verde Islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Torrential rains from Fran killed 29 - 31 people in the Cape Verde Islands, making it the deadliest storm in their history.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle (now being called Invest 92L) are generating heavy thunderstorms about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next three days. The disturbance is headed to the north-northeast to northeast at 10 mph, and is expected to pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda Tuesday through Wednesday. Since strong westerly winds are keeping most of ex-Gabrielle's heavy thunderstorms displaced to the east, the bulk of this activity should miss Bermuda. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day and 5-day odds of development at 20% in their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1560. clwstmchasr:


A 50" deficit?


Days can be weeks
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 10349
1567. Torito
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 4554
1566. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1540. Torito:


so that little spot with nothing in it is a pocket of dry air? it seems to be the COC to me...


no the coc is little expose from the convection yet under the convective canopy of the CDO most of convective activity is confine to the se quad with a slight waning of convective feedback overall

09L/TS/H/CX


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maybe a hurricane soon!!
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Quoting 1555. RitaEvac:


A perfect storm could wipe it out in a few days


You'd also strip the top soil from here to El Paso.

I was hoping this year would be a lot like last year, lots of tropical storms, coupled with the good westward tracks we expected and a weaker subtropical ridge but that hasn't panned out just yet.

We've still got another half of the season to go and with the return of the autumn troughs we might just get a few rainmakers.
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EX98L is linked to HUMBERTO
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Quoting 1539. nofailsafe:


The problem is that when things start looking really good for Texas in the long term, the storm gets pulled east into Louisiana or the NE gulf by the time it makes landfall.


That's in the past...Its 2013 Louisiana will get no action
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1559. Torito
Dat polar low is back.

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1558. Torito
Quoting 1557. ncstorm:


look like a mini me beside her..



ikr. xD
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1557. ncstorm
Quoting 1553. Torito:
And heres to all the people rooting for hurricane Gabriel.



look like a mini me beside her..
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1556. Torito
Quoting 1554. ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 10h

2002 started as slow as this and there were 2 cat 4 hurricanes in the gulf within 10 days after Sept 20. Warm AMO, take nothing for granted



bigjokebastardi speaks again.
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Quoting 1551. clwstmchasr:


It will take years to get it back. Every little bit helps.


A perfect storm could wipe it out in a few days
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1554. ncstorm
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 10h

2002 started as slow as this and there were 2 cat 4 hurricanes in the gulf within 10 days after Sept 20. Warm AMO, take nothing for granted
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 18003
1553. Torito
And heres to all the people rooting for hurricane Gabriel.

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1552. Torito
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Quoting 1538. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
texas death ridge zapped it so dry sucked the clouds right outta the sky


Yeah I remember the tin cap crew went nutzz!!

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1549. Torito
Nice bands on this storm.

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1548. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1536. DellOperator:
That looks like an slot of dry air getting drawn into the core of the circulation. This could hinder the next forecast advisory of going to a hurricane. Still in contention for breaking the latest hurricane record.

its going to have a rough day effect have to wait till after sun set out there for the next convective cycle
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watching two tropical storms.
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Two systems going north and hopefully just a rain maker for Texas..please. On another climate note (Nat, hehe) check out the linkLink
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1545. Torito
Quoting 1541. congaline:
Hurricane Humberto by 8 pm!


that's what I said yesterday, and it looks even more likely now, as the winds are now less than 10mph away from cat 1 str and the storm is now well defined.
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Quoting 1524. CitikatzSouthFL:

Gator, if we quit quoting him, hopefully he will go away to another blog somewhere else far, far away and whine all day on it. I have "ignored" him and so the only time I know he is on here is when he is quoted. He writes the same silly complaint (about 3,000 versions of it so far) and he just needs to move on to a new topic.
So, let's have fun with Humberto, Gabby and (HOPEFULLY) abundant rain for the parched, dry Texas and the Southwest.
Rita, got my fingers and toes crossed that my great State of Texas finally gets some beneficial rain during the rest of this season. Hopefully, not the kind that causes flooding, damage and loss of life.


Thankfully all bloggers are not like him. Btw it's the first time I read something from him, maybe all the rest have been too boring for dragging my attention ...
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Quoting 1535. RitaEvac:


If you do a 5 year drought map we're basically in the deep red, as Houston is over 50" behind rainfall since Ike in 08'. The improvement is a smokescreen.



It will take more than a few days of rain to bring us back up to the old normal.
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1542. ncstorm
Gabrielle

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Hurricane Humberto by 8 pm!
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1540. Torito
Quoting 1534. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
naw semi circle of clouds with a slight dry slot


so that little spot with nothing in it is a pocket of dry air? it seems to be the COC to me...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 4554
Quoting 1533. ncstorm:
wow..look at the BOC disturbance..looking better and better for texas



The problem is that when things start looking really good for Texas in the long term, the storm gets pulled east into Louisiana or the NE gulf by the time it makes landfall.
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1538. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1532. nofailsafe:


That was Don. As soon as its CoC crossed the coast the whole storm just disappeared.
texas death ridge zapped it so dry sucked the clouds right outta the sky
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1537. ncstorm
Humberto

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 18003
That looks like an slot of dry air getting drawn into the core of the circulation. This could hinder the next forecast advisory of going to a hurricane. Still in contention for breaking the latest hurricane record.

Quoting 1523. Torito:
looks like a potential eye forming on humberto.

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Quoting 1526. VR46L:


It sure would but I have to say the Texas Drought has improved so much since 2011





If you do a 5 year drought map we're basically in the deep red, as Houston is over 50" behind rainfall since Ike in 08'. The improvement is a smokescreen.

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1534. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1523. Torito:
looks like a potential eye forming on humberto.

naw semi circle of clouds with a slight dry slot
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1533. ncstorm
wow..look at the BOC disturbance..looking better and better for texas

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 18003
Quoting 1527. clwstmchasr:


What tropical storm was it that hit Texas and evaporated as it came ashore? Let's hope that doesn't happen again.


That was Don. As soon as its CoC crossed the coast the whole storm just disappeared.
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I got a humble question. FIM 7 and the other FIMs... How good are those models? How do they compare with the EURO and GFS? It seems to me that the NHC uses them extensively.
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1530. Torito
Quoting 1527. clwstmchasr:


What tropical storm was it that hit Texas and evaporated as it came ashore? Let's hope that doesn't happen again.



I believe it was Don....

Link
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Right now the only model showing a landfall of any potential cyclone in the BOC north of Tampico is the GFS.



The ensemble spread is also pretty strung out along the coast:



Even the overenthusiastic GEM isn't that excited.



My guess is that the GFS hiccuped this morning, the 12z model run isn't for a few hours, so I suppose it's time to start doing things today.
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MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN
THU ON THE LEADING EDGE OF WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG 47W. MODELS
SEEM DEFICIENT WITH MOISTURE FIELD WITH THIS WAVE.
LATEST BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWATS OF 2.67 INCHES WITH THIS WAVE WHILE GFS
SHOWS 2.3 INCHES. EXPECT AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON THU WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLD FLASH FLOODING OVER NCNTRL PR. MODELS
SHOW WAVE WEAKENING OVR THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ERN
CARIB
BUT EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION.


I don't know what to say. Still the same story....
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1526. VR46L
Quoting 1515. ihave27windows:


That would be beneficial for most of Texas =)


It sure would but I have to say the Texas Drought has improved so much since 2011

09/06/11


09/03/2013
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Quoting 1491. superpete:
Had solid rain in Cayman last night from the 'Moonlight Cowboy' AOI, more on the way for us, by the look of it currently



;) I hear ya, Pete. That system is gonna make up eventually. Still looks good. Convergence has definitely improved in that area.
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Quoting 1514. GatorWX:


C'est la vie

Gator, if we quit quoting him, hopefully he will go away to another blog somewhere else far, far away and whine all day on it. I have "ignored" him and so the only time I know he is on here is when he is quoted. He writes the same silly complaint (about 3,000 versions of it so far) and he just needs to move on to a new topic.
So, let's have fun with Humberto, Gabby and (HOPEFULLY) abundant rain for the parched, dry Texas and the Southwest.
Rita, got my fingers and toes crossed that my great State of Texas finally gets some beneficial rain during the rest of this season. Hopefully, not the kind that causes flooding, damage and loss of life.
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1523. Torito
looks like a potential eye forming on humberto.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 4554
1522. GatorWX
Quoting 1516. MississippiWx:
Believe that recon will find a stronger Gabrielle when they investigate this afternoon. In my opinion, it's not totally out of the realm of possibilities for Gabrielle to attain minimal hurricane status before shear increases in a couple of days. It's heading over waters that have been well above normal the majority of this season.


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1521. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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GFS shows a 1005 low east of the Lesser Antilles in 3 days.... lol BUT it is void of rain.

PATHETIC again, and again, and again, and again........
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Quoting 1514. GatorWX:


C'est la vie


oui :(
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Quoting 1513. VR46L:


Yeah I think this time he might get lucky , thinking that storm may just get into Corpus Christi area .


Well, right now there is a big possibility that it will happen, so let's keep our fingers crossed. Texas can definitely use the rain.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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