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Tropical Depression Eight Hits Tampico, Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on September 07, 2013

Blink, and you missed it: the latest minor blip on the almost inconsequential Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 was Tropical Depression Eight, which formed at 2 pm EDT Friday just offshore of Tampico, Mexico. The depression made landfall less than three hours later, and had top winds estimated at 35 mph. The depression has already dissipated, but brought heavy rains that were expected to accumulate to 3 - 5" along its path. Tampico, Mexico recorded 2.60" of rain from the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of the Tropical Depression Eight, taken at 1:30 pm EDT on September 6, 2013. TD 8 was making landfall near Tampico, Mexico, with top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle are generating heavy thunderstorms a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 20% and 5-day odds at 40% in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the north at 10 - 15 mph, and is expected to turn to the northeast and pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday. For such a meager storm, ex-Gabrielle will be getting a lot of attention today. NOAA is planning on flying all three of their hurricane research aircraft into the storm, and NASA will be sending up one of their two remotely piloted Global Hawks. An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is also scheduled for Saturday afternoon. With the tropical Atlantic not looking like it will generate anything more interesting to study for at least the next week, the hurricane researchers have to make do with what little they have.


Figure 2. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of a tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 7, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by mid-week. Image credit: NASA.

New African tropical wave: is it destined to be the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013?
A strong tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa this weekend, and all of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Tuesday. Some of the models have been eager to intensify the storm into a hurricane by mid-week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 80%.

Why such a quiet Atlantic hurricane season?
Unusual dryness over the Atlantic has been the main reason for this year's lack of hurricanes, it appears. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's latest post, "The Lack of Atlantic Hurricanes: The Saga of Low Relative Humidity Continues", looks at how dry the Tropical Atlantic has been this hurricane season. Part of the unusual dryness, he maintains, is due to dry air coming off the coast of Brazil, which is in severe to extreme drought, according to the global drought monitor. Aon Benfield puts the cost of the Brazilian drought at $8.3 billion so far this year, making it Brazil's most expensive natural disaster in its history.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting 867. CybrTeddy:


Could be a high environmental MSLP.
I'm a little confuse myself as it seems the high is sitting in one place, perhaps an ULL?
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Quoting 868. Astrometeor:


Well, we talked about that issue a while ago in chat once, main problem would be that TT only comments when he thinks someone is wrong. It's pretty easy to get annoyed at someone if the person keeps telling you that you're wrong.

Note: I am not stepping into this debate at all, just an observation.
Oh yeah... true.
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870. JRRP
Quoting HurriHistory:
Come on now. Don't give up hope yet. Anything can happen during the Month of October. Look at Wilma back in 2005. The most intense Hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere when it was just South of Castro-Island. We've still got a LONGGGGGGG way to go.

i was kidding

Quoting will40:

sn eye of 300 km of diameter
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Quoting 863. Naga5000:


No hate for him here, but I do think it's premature to dump an idea so quickly though. We have had 2 straight years of the "worst drought in decades" taking place in Brazil, on top of that, there is a well documented circulation pattern stemming from that area of Brazil into the tropical Atlantic.

I think an in depth study to confirm or deny any possible effects is a good thing and dismissing it flat out is not.


I also think so. Most of the arguments here seem to be of the sort "x causes y" which quite simple. We need to think more fluidly. But not about AGW. ha ha.
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Quoting 859. Bluestorm5:
I was typing when that comment was posted. I wasn't referring the hate on TomTaylor only because of Brazil drought debate, but people had attacked him before too. People think he is a jerk when in reality he got facts to back it up in most debates.


Well, we talked about that issue a while ago in chat once, main problem would be that TT only comments when he thinks someone is wrong. It's pretty easy to get annoyed at someone if the person keeps telling you that you're wrong.

Note: I am not stepping into this debate at all, just an observation.
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Quoting 850. JLPR2:
What is the GFS thinking? Huge eye on a 991mb storm... something doesn't add up.

**Removed the image, the same image a third time was simply an overkill. XD


Could be a high environmental MSLP.
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Quoting 862. dziban303:
Another "above average" dud season. Snoozefest 2013 continues...


Guess you've zoned out the last three.
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Quoting 864. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Makes sense the ITCZ in the MDR has been stagnant for the most part this season. Combine the effects of SAL and the drought over Brazil which has been able to block out the sun from warming the sst along with ULL's spinning endlessly out of control causing dry air and wind shear to penetrate the tropical systems we have had or lack thereof and the series of fronts that have pushed off the East Coast and allowed for a Dome of High Pressure to build in across the US and walla there is where your season has gone to.


You forgot to mention the dwindling butterfly population in the Sahel region. ;)
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Makes sense the ITCZ in the MDR has been stagnant for the most part this season. Combine the effects of SAL and the drought over Brazil which has been able to block out the sun from warming the sst along with ULL's spinning endlessly out of control causing dry air and wind shear to penetrate the tropical systems we have had or lack thereof and the series of fronts that have pushed off the East Coast and allowed for a Dome of High Pressure to build in across the US and walla there is where your season has gone to.
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Quoting 859. Bluestorm5:
I was typing when that comment was posted. I wasn't referring the hate on TomTaylor only because of Brazil drought debate, but people had attacked him before too. People think he is a jerk when in reality he got facts to back it up in most debates.


No hate for him here, but I do think it's premature to dump an idea so quickly though. We have had 2 straight years of the "worst drought in decades" taking place in Brazil, on top of that, there is a well documented circulation pattern stemming from that area of Brazil into the tropical Atlantic.

I think an in depth study to confirm or deny any possible effects is a good thing and dismissing it flat out is not.
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Another "above average" dud season. Snoozefest 2013 continues...
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Quoting 859. Bluestorm5:
I was typing when that comment was posted. I wasn't referring the hate on TomTaylor only because of Brazil drought debate, but people had attacked him before too. People think he is a jerk when in reality he got facts to back it up in most debates.

Oh okay. Yeah, I saw the hate comment as well. Didn't know if you were speaking of the Brazil Drought Debate or not.
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Quoting 828. MississippiWx:


You don't have to observe weather somewhere to see what teleconnections are valid. When Brazil is well south of the MDR and the mean flow to the north is due west, how in the world can it translate to dry air into the Atlantic? It makes no sense. The "maps that we post aren't accurate" argument would be a rather lame one.
Coriolis Effect, remember Brazil is both north and south of the Equator, although most of it is south of the Equator, ocean currents actually bend towards the north if you are north of the equator and south if you are south of the Equator, the winds at the doldrums are relatively calm and the air can become stagnant their due to the rising air, if soil moisture is lacking in Brazil, the dust given off by the drought gets trapped in the atmosphere and dispersed all around it.

"The doldrums is a colloquial expression derived from historical maritime usage, in which it refers to those parts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean affected by the Intertropical Convergence Zone, a low-pressure area around the equator where the prevailing winds are calm. The low pressure is caused by the heat at the equator, which makes the air rise and travel north and south high in the atmosphere, until it subsides again in the horse latitudes. Some of that air returns to the doldrums through the trade winds. This process can lead to light or variable winds and more severe weather, in the form of squalls, thunderstorms and hurricanes. The doldrums are also noted for calm periods when the winds disappear altogether, trapping sail-powered boats for periods of days or weeks. The term appears to have arisen in the 18th century – when cross-Equator sailing voyages became more common."

"Colloquially, the "doldrums" are a state of inactivity, mild depression, listlessness or stagnation"
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Quoting 856. TylerStanfield:

Not precisely, considering comment 854. :P
I was typing when that comment was posted. I wasn't referring the hate on TomTaylor only because of Brazil drought debate, but people had attacked him before too. People think he is a jerk when in reality he got facts to back it up in most debates.
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Active Storms / Invests = 6
Basin Name CurrentWind MaxWind ACE
07L GABRIELLE 30 35 0.245
08L EIGHT 25 0
12E LORENA 25 40 0.9325
91L INVEST 25 0
91W INVEST 15 0
98L INVEST 25 0

http://www.policlimate.com/tropical/index.html
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Quoting 850. JLPR2:
What is the GFS thinking? Huge eye on a 991mb storm... something doesn't add up.

**Removed the image, the same image a third time was simply an overkill. XD

The simulated IR images are basically for oohs and ahhs, means nothing in relevance to what the actual storm may look like.
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Quoting 855. Bluestorm5:
Laughing at all of hate for Jordan... he got facts to back it up, guys. Game over.

Not precisely, considering comment 854. :P
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Laughing at all of hate for Tom... he got facts to back it up, guys. Game over.
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Quoting 839. TomTaylor:
Top 10 ACE years with surface preciptation anomaly for ASO is plotted below. Drought over Brazil favors an above average season. Lee Grenci is wrong. Grothar is wrong. Case Closed.


Yes, but take into account that typical active seasons have the ITCZ displaced to the north, creating the active wave-train, which would be why Northern brazil would be so dry. But the past 4 season have had this displacement to the North which has resulted in a extreme drought for Brazil. Though the low-level flow aloft may not support it, Brazil could be doing to the Central Atlantic exactly what Texas did to the Western Gulf of Mexico in 2011. I'm not saying it is, but it is a possibility.
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Dry air over Hawaii

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850. JLPR2
What is the GFS thinking? Huge eye on a 991mb storm... something doesn't add up.

**Removed the image, the same image a third time was simply an overkill. XD
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Quoting 839. TomTaylor:
Top 10 ACE years with surface preciptation anomaly for ASO is plotted below. Drought over Brazil favors an above average season. Lee Grenci is wrong. Grothar is wrong. Case Closed.



One doesn't simply call Grothar wrong.

How else did Robert E. Lee get his forecast for the Gettysburg battle? :)

(duck and run)
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Quoting 839. TomTaylor:
Top 10 ACE years with surface preciptation anomaly for ASO is plotted below. Drought over Brazil favors an above average season. Lee Grenci is wrong. Grothar is wrong. Case Closed.



To be fair Tom, that image predicts a wetter than average season which could be wholly caused from the northern displacement of the ITCZ as I discussed in 836. Also interesting to note is the 0 anomaly in the Middle Atlantic.

I'm not saying there is a connection, I don't know. I do know that it is unwise to count out a unforeseen feedback mechanism that we may not have witnessed before.
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Quoting 836. Naga5000:
On the Brazil note, the only thing I could find is this paper from 2008 Link that notes an abnormally northern displacement on the ITCZ is associated with drought in North Eastern Brazil and a Southern displacement of the ITCZ is associated with wetter than average conditions in North Eastern Brazil. It seems the placement of the ITCZ is the driver on the rainfall patterns over the area of Brazil affected by drought.

This is all I have found so far.

This would make since considering the past four hurricane seasons have had a Northern Displacement of the ITCZ, which would result in the extreme drought in Northeastern Brazil. But I'm not completely sold on the whole Hurricane season suppression line yet. Though low level flow aloft is due West in this region during the heart of hurricane season, the Mid-upper atmosphere has enough breathing room to allow for a more than just west movement. This would seem plausible for why there was a lot of Mid-level dry air when Gabrielle was present. There still needs to be more researched into this for me to agree completely, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
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Quoting 838. hurricane23:
Alot of the GFS ensembles have something heading north out of the caribbean. Anything across the central/eastern atl should recurve.

Look close to home.


I love tracking hurricanes that recurve. I've been utterly starved of decent CV hurricanes since Katia and Ophelia, it's gotten boring with all these weak tropical storms. After that, we really will have to begin looking to the Caribbean as we may get a significant portion of our hurricane count out of there.
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Quoting 832. JRRP:
i can´t wait for the next hurricane season
Come on now. Don't give up hope yet. Anything can happen during the Month of October. Look at Wilma back in 2005. The most intense Hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere when it was just South of Castro-Island. We've still got a LONGGGGGGG way to go.
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Quoting 838. hurricane23:
Alot of the GFS ensembles have something heading north out of the caribbean. Anything across the central/eastern atl should recurve.

Look close to home.


Long range looks favorable for a landfall if a storm were to develop close to home.

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Top 10 ACE years with surface preciptation anomaly for ASO is plotted below. Drought over Brazil favors an above average season. Lee Grenci is wrong. Grothar is wrong. Case Closed.

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Alot of the GFS ensembles have something heading north out of the caribbean. Anything across the central/eastern atl should recurve.

Look close to home.
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On the Brazil note, the only thing I could find is this paper from 2008 Link that notes an abnormally northern displacement on the ITCZ is associated with drought in North Eastern Brazil and a Southern displacement of the ITCZ is associated with wetter than average conditions in North Eastern Brazil. It seems the placement of the ITCZ is the driver on the rainfall patterns over the area of Brazil affected by drought.

This is all I have found so far.
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Thanks Donnie, sometimes trolls throw chum off the back of the boat and I bite too quickly. Had I thought about that for even a minute, I would have realized it was totally false. I'm working on it.
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If any of you storm chasers want to see a storm this year then I suggest you take the next redeye out to the Cape Verde Islands tonight because that could be the only place to catch a decent Tropical storm before this season ends.
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832. JRRP
i can´t wait for the next hurricane season
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I don't know which blog/forum is more tense with each other... NASCAR one after tonight's race OR this blog.
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84 hours out:
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Quoting 824. KoritheMan:


No it doesn't.

If a system is showing signs of organization, you don't leave the assigned probabilities the same. That's absurd.

LOL. Medical Science and Atmospherical (Meteorological) Science are the difference between a Dolphin and Cow. They're in the same family but live very different. Bad analogy? I know.
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Quoting 825. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well then, you, Grothar, and Tom all have valid reasons as to why you do or do not think the drought over Brazil has an affect on Tropical Activity in the Atlantic. These maps you guys post and I post aren't 100% accurate either.


You don't have to observe weather somewhere to see what teleconnections are valid. When Brazil is well south of the MDR and the mean flow to the north is due west, how in the world can it translate to dry air into the Atlantic? It makes no sense. The "maps that we post aren't accurate" argument would be a rather lame one.
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Quoting 825. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well then, you, Grothar, and Tom all have valid reasons as to why you do or do not think the drought over Brazil has an affect on Tropical Activity in the Atlantic. These maps you guys post and I post aren't 100% accurate either.

They're based on observed conditions. They're completely accurate.
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Quoting 821. MississippiWx:


No...lol. Why?
Well then, you, Grothar, and Tom all have valid reasons as to why you do or do not think the drought over Brazil has an affect on Tropical Activity in the Atlantic. These maps you guys post and I post aren't 100% accurate either.
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Quoting 817. Droab:
I was just reading how the % changed for the African wave again. I know we are dealing with the variables of Mother Nature in science, but if every 6 hours I could get the opportunity to revamp an idea from a medical science field background it would be frowned upon. You give a % for 5 days, but 6 hours later you are readjusting in the same day just seems counter intuitive.


No it doesn't.

If a system is showing signs of organization, you don't leave the assigned probabilities the same. That's absurd.
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Quoting 817. Droab:
I was just reading how the % changed for the African wave again. I know we are dealing with the variables of Mother Nature in science, but if every 6 hours I could get the opportunity to revamp an idea from a medical science field background it would be frowned upon. You give a % for 5 days, but 6 hours later you are readjusting in the same day just seems counter intuitive.


It's a time series probability, not a concrete idea. The comparison isn't equal. When conditions are forecast to change, a change in probability may be warranted. I
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Convection beginning to form around the center of ex Gabby?

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