Tropical Depression Eight Hits Tampico, Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on September 07, 2013

Blink, and you missed it: the latest minor blip on the almost inconsequential Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 was Tropical Depression Eight, which formed at 2 pm EDT Friday just offshore of Tampico, Mexico. The depression made landfall less than three hours later, and had top winds estimated at 35 mph. The depression has already dissipated, but brought heavy rains that were expected to accumulate to 3 - 5" along its path. Tampico, Mexico recorded 2.60" of rain from the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of the Tropical Depression Eight, taken at 1:30 pm EDT on September 6, 2013. TD 8 was making landfall near Tampico, Mexico, with top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle are generating heavy thunderstorms a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 20% and 5-day odds at 40% in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the north at 10 - 15 mph, and is expected to turn to the northeast and pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday. For such a meager storm, ex-Gabrielle will be getting a lot of attention today. NOAA is planning on flying all three of their hurricane research aircraft into the storm, and NASA will be sending up one of their two remotely piloted Global Hawks. An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is also scheduled for Saturday afternoon. With the tropical Atlantic not looking like it will generate anything more interesting to study for at least the next week, the hurricane researchers have to make do with what little they have.


Figure 2. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of a tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 7, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by mid-week. Image credit: NASA.

New African tropical wave: is it destined to be the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013?
A strong tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa this weekend, and all of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Tuesday. Some of the models have been eager to intensify the storm into a hurricane by mid-week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 80%.

Why such a quiet Atlantic hurricane season?
Unusual dryness over the Atlantic has been the main reason for this year's lack of hurricanes, it appears. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's latest post, "The Lack of Atlantic Hurricanes: The Saga of Low Relative Humidity Continues", looks at how dry the Tropical Atlantic has been this hurricane season. Part of the unusual dryness, he maintains, is due to dry air coming off the coast of Brazil, which is in severe to extreme drought, according to the global drought monitor. Aon Benfield puts the cost of the Brazilian drought at $8.3 billion so far this year, making it Brazil's most expensive natural disaster in its history.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 113. flsky:

Just love stereotypes....


Of course, as long as they aren't taken too seriously ;)
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:
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Quoting 112. Tazmanian:



99L was TD 8


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Quoting 114. JRRP:
,


I can only agree with part of that. I think it needs more discussion.
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Quoting 115. flsky:

NO ONE foresaw what would happen this season
Especially, if the drought in Brazil is really the main factor. Tell me honestly who saw that coming?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 10657
117. txjac
Quoting 116. flsky:

I never can see anything in your posts except for a "period" or "comma"


I thought that was just me seeing the dot
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116. flsky
Quoting 114. JRRP:
,

I never can see anything in your posts except for a "period" or "comma"
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115. flsky
Quoting 102. SuperStorm093:
What a tremendous season so far folks, get the crow ready for all you guys who said BIG season.

NO ONE foresaw what would happen this season
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114. JRRP
,
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113. flsky
Quoting 109. Jedkins01:


If you live in Florida, you should be able to relate.

Just love stereotypes....
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Quoting 110. redwagon:


Beell, what do you think 99L is doing?



99L was TD 8
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
111. flsky
Quoting 69. islander101010:
no shortage of bees here e cen fl.

I've noticed small black ones on my balcony in the past few days. They don't really look like bees, but they don't really look like wasps either. They LOVE my flowers tho.
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Quoting 99. beell:


At least for now, the first few dropsondes from "Gonzo" would show that to be true.

Synoptically, xGabrielle is striving hard to be all it can be...a surface trough extending to the NNE, lol.


Beell, what do you think 99L is doing?
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If you live in Florida, you should be able to relate.
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108. 7544
Quoting 104. unknowncomic:


here we go ! far far out but it is possible d for that one .
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Quoting 97. CaneHunter031472:
Good Morning All

Interesting reading about the 2013 Hurricane season. I don't know if anyone here already posted this, but I thought it was worth adding. I believe Dr. Masters is in between the interviewed.

Link
Thanks for the link.

"He noted that dry air, from Africa as well as rarely mentioned flows associated with an extreme drought in northeast Brazil, may be a factor "helping to shut down this year's hurricane season."

Forecasters say a system expected to emerge off the coast of Africa may strengthen into a hurricane by early next week. But whatever happens in the coming days, Feltgen cautioned it was still too early to write off 2013 as a year when tropical weather was unpredictable.

"We are at mid-point of the six-month hurricane season," he said. "It is a mistake to believe that the second half of the season would resemble the first half," he said.

The first hurricane in 2001, Erin, only formed on September 9, Feltgen said. "That season ended with 15 named storms including nine hurricanes, four of which became major hurricanes."

Correlation makes sense, are we seeing more extreme droughts than normal? And what implications does that have not just in the Atlantic Basin, but on tropical activity world wide. Also, I am believer that whatever is happening now, will tend to balance itself out later, as the atmosphere over water will become more unstable with higher amounts of water vapor, whether it happens in the 2nd half of the season or next season is anyone's guess at this point. But I do know Earth tends to find ways to balance itself out.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 10657
93 you are doing it again
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 450 Comments: 143050
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3157
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 450 Comments: 143050
What a tremendous season so far folks, get the crow ready for all you guys who said BIG season.
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Quoting 98. Neapolitan:
Thus beginneth the CV swirl:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309071650
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013090712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912013
AL, 91, 2013090712, , BEST, 0, 131N, 159W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,




and likey other poofer like 94L 96L 98L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
And we have 91L, wondering what the intensity models are showing. They may not be all that wrong if they show hurricane status.
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Quoting 87. Sfloridacat5:


Along with a dry air being pulled in from the West.


At least for now, the first few dropsondes from "Gonzo" would show that to be true.

Synoptically, xGabrielle is striving hard to be all it can be...a surface trough extending to the NNE, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thus beginneth the CV swirl:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309071657
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013090712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912013
AL, 91, 2013090618, , BEST, 0, 128N, 130W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2013090700, , BEST, 0, 129N, 140W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2013090706, , BEST, 0, 130N, 150W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2013090712, , BEST, 0, 130N, 160W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 15193
Good Morning All

Interesting reading about the 2013 Hurricane season. I don't know if anyone here already posted this, but I thought it was worth adding. I believe Dr. Masters is in between the interviewed.

Link
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Quoting 86. taistelutipu:


Thank you very much, CybrTeddy. I must have missed that. And now it's 98L again, I assume? I think I'll have to visit the blog in regular 6h intervals so that I won't miss anything this season.


Yup.
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Quoting 56. GatorWX:


No time now, but thanks for the link Groth.

Bookmarked for later.


If you like that one, I will send you the link for "War and Peace"
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At least there is no SAL...hopefully until next year



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Quoting 80. Patrap:
Trouble usually follows the path of least resistance, Watch the Sw GOM,..it may do a OMG.


Novice question

Path of least resistance ...between the two troughs? Or to the NE?
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Quoting 80. Patrap:
Trouble usually follows the path of least resistance, Watch the Sw GOM,..it may do a OMG.


Gonna loop back...
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Quoting 85. Orcasystems:


ROFL.. I notice the weather in the "Centre of the Universe" is acting weird... as per normal.

rain today
raw east wind off the lake
gonna warm up back to 30 for tue
been cool
we got down to 7
wed night thurs morning

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is it going back to the gulf?
Quoting 88. Patrap:

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Quoting 68. Orcasystems:


Did you see that the CMC does not appear to like NY?


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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 450 Comments: 143050
Quoting 78. beell:
nekkid and heavily sheared low-level swirl approaching 23.9N, 69.9W.



Along with a dry air being pulled in from the West.
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Quoting 66. CybrTeddy:


98L ended up being called 90L for a while, before it was deactivated.


Thank you very much, CybrTeddy. I must have missed that. And now it's 98L again, I assume? I think I'll have to visit the blog in regular 6h intervals so that I won't miss anything this season.
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Quoting 81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya but its the cmc like getting stuck by lightening it can happen but likely not today



ROFL.. I notice the weather in the "Centre of the Universe" is acting weird... as per normal.
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84. SLU
3 days 19 hours 27 minutes to the hurricane record. Come on 2013. You 'cane do it!

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 6230
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 450 Comments: 143050

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Quoting 68. Orcasystems:


Did you see that the CMC does not appear to like NY?
ya but its the cmc like getting stuck by lightening it can happen but likely not today

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Trouble usually follows the path of least resistance, Watch the Sw GOM,..it may do a OMG.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 450 Comments: 143050
think your watching ex gabbys kittens moving off the the nne
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nekkid and heavily sheared low-level swirl approaching 23.9N, 69.9W.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 450 Comments: 143050
Quoting 74. SouthernIllinois:

Waz up Daddy?

Lil Toby Keith this time...

Who’s your daddy, who’s your baby?
Who’s your buddy, who’s your friend?

And who’s the one guy that you come runnin’ to
When your lovelife starts tumblin’?
I got the money if you got the honey
Let’s cut a deal let’s make a plan

Who’s your daddy, who’s your baby?
Who’s your buddy, who’s your man?


LOLO SI. Thanks for serenading me this morning. You have a fantastic day - wish we were having what you are.

I am out.

Y'all be good!
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Quoting 73. Funication:

I saw that too, and thought, geeze its a good thing its *never right




Its usually fairly decent on long term guesstimates.. although it has a problem with strength. So I think I would go with "seldom" rather then "never" :)
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Quoting 68. Orcasystems:


Did you see that the CMC does not appear to like NY?
I saw that too, and thought, geeze its a good thing its *never right


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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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