Earth has its 5th Warmest June on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on July 18, 2013

June 2013 was the globe's 5th warmest June since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated it the 2nd warmest June on record. The year-to-date period of January - June has been the 7th warmest such period on record. June 2013 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. June 2013 was the 340th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in June 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 4th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of June 2013 in his June 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2013, the 5th warmest June for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed over much of northern Canada, far northwestern Russia, southern Japan, the Philippines, part of southwestern China, and central southern Africa. It was cooler than average across part of central Asia, central India, western Europe, and far northeastern Canada. No record cold was observed over land areas during the month. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

Five billion-dollar weather disasters in June
At least five billion-dollar weather disasters hit Earth during June. The most damaging of these was the historic $22 billion flood disaster that killed at least 23 people in Central Europe in late May and early June--the 5th costliest non-U.S. weather disaster in world history. Record flooding unprecedented since the Middle Ages hit major rivers in Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Slovakia; the Danube River in Passau, Germany hit its highest level since 1501, and the Saale River in Halle, Germany was the highest in its 400-year period of record. Numerous cities recorded their highest flood waters in more than a century, although in some locations the great flood of 2002 was higher.

The world-wide tally of billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2013 is sixteen, and the U.S. total is four, according to the June 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield:

1) Flooding, Central Europe, 5/30 - 6/6, $22 billion
2) Drought, Brazil, 1/1 - 5/31, $8.3 billion
3) Tornado, Moore, OK, and associated U.S. severe weather, 5/18 - 5/22, $4.5 billion
4) Drought, Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 4/30, $4.2 billion
5) Flooding, Calgary, Alberta Canada, 6/19 - 6/24, $3.8 billion
6) Flooding, Indonesia, 1/20 - 1/27, $3.31 billion
7) Flooding, Australia, 1/21 - 1/30, $2.5 billion
8) Tornadoes and severe weather, U.S., 5/26 - 6/2, $2 billion
9) Severe weather, Midwest U.S., 3/18 - 3/20, $2 billion
10) Winter weather, Europe, 3/12 - 3/31, $1.8 billion
11) Drought, New Zealand, 1/1 - 5/10, $1.6 billion
12) Flooding, Sichuan Province, China, 7/7 - 7/11, $1.6 billion
13) Flooding, China, 6/29 - 7/3, $1.4 billion
14) Flooding, Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, $1.3 billion
15) Flooding, India and Nepal, 6/14 - 6/18, $1.1 billion
16) Winter weather, Plains, Midwest, Northeast U.S., 2/24 - 2/27, $1.0 billion

The $8.3 billion cost of the 2013 drought in Brazil makes it by far the costliest natural disaster in Brazil's history, according to the international disasters database EM-DAT. Their 2nd most costly disaster was the drought of 1978 ($2.3 billion in 1978 dollars.)


Figure 2. The Danube River in Passau, Germany hit its highest level since 1501 during the June 2013 flood. Image credit: Stefan Penninger.


Figure 3. The $22 billion price tag of the June - June 2013 Central European floods puts that disaster in 5th place on the list of most expensive non-U.S. weather-related disasters.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 15th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during June 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through summer and into the fall, and the large majority of the El Niño models also predict that neutral conditions will last through the fall of 2013. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive months for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C below average as of July 15, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 11th lowest June extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during June was 11th lowest in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The relatively high coverage was due to wind patterns that helped spread the ice out over a larger area. During the first two weeks of July, Arctic ice extent has fallen to the 5th lowest level on record.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. If the Atlantic stays quiet, I plan on making my next post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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2340. etxwx
Good morning all...it's like the Devil's Brew Vaudeville Club on here this morning...love it!

We've been missing most of the rain, but the temps have been great. Gonna get hot toward the end of the week though.



Dexter is looking particularly feisty and handsome this morning, Mik. BTW, Capt Jack is looking for squirrel patrol recruits, would Dex be interested? Give the little guy an ear scritch for me. :)
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This may be filed under I'm the last to know anything, but I actually learned something new the other day...dang my husband and his science channel. lol.

For one, you can tell about hurricane history from stalagmites. They supposedly act as a long term rain gauge. At first I didn't know how this would help because the cave they retrieved the stalagmite from, Juan Nieves in Puerto Rico apparently gets rained on A LOT! Including when they filmed the show. But I found the answer to that online. Just thought it was neat that we may be able to learn more about these storms. :)

Hurricanes that roared across Earth's surface long ago left their mark inside stalagmites. This gives us a new way of measuring hurricanes that goes back thousands of years instead of 60 years with meteorological records. It may also add to the data linking global warming to the hurricane patterns of recent years.

The key to reading stalagmites comes from a chemical difference between hurricane raindrops and ordinary raindrops. Hurricanes have tall, cold clouds and very humid air. This means that their raindrops are better at clinging onto oxygen 16 - the lighter isotope of oxygen.
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The last week of July (this upcoming week) is normally the quiet before the switch goes on in August. There are of course exceptions to this rule.
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Quoting 2335. Levi32:


That wasn't true the last 2 years.

2012 June-July:



2011 June-July:



Good day Levi, what do you think about the latest GFS runs that show possible Dorian in a few days?
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Its a butifull day no clouds in sight
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2335. Levi32
Quoting 2332. hurricane23:


last previous seasons have featured pretty substantial ridging across the atlantic only to be replaced by the all familiar eastcoast trof as we get into meat of the season. so well see


That wasn't true the last 2 years.

2012 June-July:



2011 June-July:

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2334. SLU
This is probably well overdone. There's no support for the GFS on such significant development apart from a weak vorticity maximum associated with the same wave on the CMC.

The fact that the GFS bust on its last Cape Verde storm doesn't inspire much confidence.



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2333. Grothar
Quoting 2331. CybrTeddy:


And then the year turned 1932..


He, it was the height of the depression. Jobs weren't easy to find.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning all! The odds are in favor of us getting Dorian our of his pattern in the next 5-6 days.


last previous seasons have featured pretty substantial ridging across the atlantic only to be replaced by the all familiar eastcoast trof as we get into meat of the season. so well see
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Quoting 2296. Grothar:


Well, I dropped before I was 70. Take life easy. It's not worth it.


And then the year turned 1932..
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Out* See why I hate using the iPad? :P
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So the big swirling blob I saw in the Gulf yesterday was trying to turn into something. We had some heavy rain here in Panama City earlier but the sun is trying to come out right now.
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Morning all! The odds are in favor of us getting Dorian our of his pattern in the next 5-6 days.
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Quoting 2316. floridaboy14:
so the GFS kills it then shows a recurving storm? like we havent seen that the past 4 years. what about the ECMWF?


Best I can tell the ECMWF brings the wave into the Carribean and then the top half has a barely there signal at 850 north of Puerto Rico. Maybe the Euro is right or maybe the GFS is with development. Guess we'll see.



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Quoting 2302. Grothar:


You live a dangerous life pott. Maybe you better have two cups to keep you going today. Just keep telling her how pretty she looks.


Compliment her on her shoes. I hear women love that.
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Quoting 2322. pcola57:


Morning Mik..
Hey thats an outstanding price..
I've seen the gauge and it's no cheapo..


The other site wanted $10 for shipping, Amazon with free shipping beat 'em by about a dollar.
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I guess I should've mentioned the GM pic is pointing in the general direction of Carlos's house on Manalapan island. There used to be occasional sightings, but since the bridge closed all the rich folks are stuck in paradise on the other side.
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Quoting 2304. Grothar:
Looks like double trouble.
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2322. pcola57
Quoting 2320. mikatnight:
Happy Birthday Mr. Santana!
And Good Morning all you wonderful bloggers!

7:24 am (11:24 GMT)

50% chance of rain today here in good ol' Lantana, Florida. Yesterday was the first day in 7 days that we got no precipitation.

Dexter patiently waits for me to take his picture so he get get down from the bench at the end of the dock and go look for crabs (yesterday's pic - today's shots, not so good - I gotta start using a better camera).

FYI - I ordered the CoCoRaHS rain gauge yesterday from Amazon.com. Free shipping (Prime) makes it still the best deal for me @ $35, though they are on sale at another site for $26 + shipping. Supposed to be here on Tuesday.


Morning Mik..
Hey thats an outstanding price..
I've seen the gauge and it's no cheapo..
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Good morning..Nothing brewing yet..I guess i need another cup of coffee..
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Happy Birthday Mr. Santana!
And Good Morning all you wonderful bloggers!

7:24 am (11:24 GMT)

50% chance of rain today here in good ol' Lantana, Florida. Yesterday was the first day in 7 days that we got no precipitation.

Dexter patiently waits for me to take his picture so he get get down from the bench at the end of the dock and go look for crabs (yesterday's pic - today's shots, not so good - I gotta start using a better camera).

FYI - I ordered the CoCoRaHS rain gauge yesterday from Amazon.com. Free shipping (Prime) makes it still the best deal for me @ $35, though they are on sale at another site for $26 + shipping. Supposed to be here on Tuesday.
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2319. pcola57
Quoting 2318. EyEtoEyE:
Comment 2300 , What a joke ! LOL.


To each his/her own EyEtoEyE..Lol.. :)
If the fat lady sings after just 2 storms..
Ill kiss her.. :(
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Comment 2300 , What a joke ! LOL.
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Y'all are bored outta your silly little minds I see........ just kidding, hope it's a great weekend for everyone. I imagine things will be picking up in the tropics within the next week or so.
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so the GFS kills it then shows a recurving storm? like we havent seen that the past 4 years. what about the ECMWF?
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Good morning everyone. I don't drink coffee but I hear it's pretty popular. Barb is reminding me of my school days in Bamberg and volksmarching too. I am seriously considering buying a pair of boots and a machete and I hope this ULL brings rain. :D

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The 6Z GFS shows an EARL track XD.
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Quoting 2309. islander101010:
happy birthday carlos santana wish i could post a clip of his band at woodstock e.cen fl. took it first good dumping in a couple wks it was a soaker.


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2311. pcola57
Could this have a hidden meaning?
Is it a pshycological profile?

Just a joke Taz.. :)
I will remove it if you don't like it.. :)



Earth Image of the day

Taz River, Russia - July 20, 2013







Change is often elusive to see, visible only in the contrast between before and after. But on June 18, 2013, the Operational Land Imager on the Landsat 8 satellite captured Russias Taz River in transition (middle image). Ice was breaking up on the river, while sediment-laden spring floods piled up behind the unmoving mass. The wetlands and tributaries surrounding the river were similarly suspended in a half-frozen, half-thawed state. The area had been frozen a little more than a week earlier (June 9), when Landsat 8 acquired the top image, and was entirely ice free just over two weeks later (July 4), when the lower image was acquired.

The Taz River is one of many that drain into the Arctic Ocean and its surrounding seas. But as Arctic rivers go, the Taz is relatively minor. About 33 cubic kilometers of water flow from the river into the Kara Sea every year. The Tazs strongest flow usually occurs in June. By contrast, the largest contributor to the Arctic Ocean, the neighboring Yenisey River, discharges 580 cubic kilometers annually.

The spring thaw sends an annual gush of fresh water into the Arctic Ocean, which is the most dominated by fresh water of all the worlds oceans. This fresh outflow plays a role in sustaining Arctic sea ice. Because it is less dense than salty water, the fresh water sits near the surface and forms a layer that insulates sea ice from deeper, warmer seawater. Contact with the warmer water would cause the sea ice to melt at a faster rate.

Too much fresh water, however, has the potential to interfere with ocean currents; some researchers suspect it could slow the global ocean conveyor belt. For these reasons, scientists are keen to track the output of Arctic rivers. In recent years, scientists noted that Arctic waters near Canada have been growing fresher. A 2012 Nature paper tracked the source of the fresh water to Russias great Arctic rivers. Weather patterns had moved the water from the Asian side of the Arctic to the North American side, though overall Arctic Ocean salinity remained unchanged.
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Quoting 2265. captainmark:
Are you Bobby Boucher's mother?


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happy birthday carlos santana wish i could post a clip of his band at woodstock e.cen fl. took it first good dumping in a couple wks it was a soaker.
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2308. pottery
Quoting zampaz:

Har har har, I understand now :)
Hey, seriously, drink lots of water and don't overheat.
Heat stroke can really sneak up on you esp if you start working in the morning and the temp creeps up you don't notice you're overheating. Happened to me in Yuma Az...
but it's a dry heat...
Yesterday the heat index here got up to 105.


Thanks for the good advice.
Always aware of the potential for heat issues here.
Water is a must.
Will be eating lots of mangos. They are thick on the ground and the trees there are laden......

Saw a swarm of drunk butterflies last w/e there too.
They were gorging on guava fruit on the ground.
The guava was fermenting and the butterflies were falling over and couldn't fly.
They were all smiling though.....
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2307. Grothar
I used to work at the Susquehanna coffee factory.

Susquehanna...did you say Susquehanna? ...Slowly I turned, step by by step...........
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2306. zampaz
Quoting 2301. pottery:

She might be, soon.
It all depends on how hard she works me today......

Har har har, I understand now :)
Hey, seriously, drink lots of water and don't overheat.
Heat stroke can really sneak up on you esp if you start working in the morning and the temp creeps up you don't notice you're overheating. Happened to me in Yuma Az...
but it's a dry heat...
Yesterday the heat index here got up to 105.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2305. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


You live a dangerous life pott. Maybe you better have two cups to keep you going today. Just keep telling her how pretty she looks.

I tell her that, and anything else she wants to hear, when she's wielding the machete.

She can be very persuasive, when in that situation.
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2304. Grothar
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Quoting 2257. Pallis:
Coffee is the devils brew, a dangerous, addictive stimulant grown by the same people who supply the world with cocaine. The only way to become a patriotic American again, and get that monkey off your back, is cold turkey. I won't even hire someone who drinks that stuff.









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2302. Grothar
Quoting 2298. pottery:


heheheheheh

I'll have another cup of coffee, on that.

Then I'm off to perform a morning of Hard Labour, supervised by a Lady in Boots who is wielding a machete .

The weather?
Hazy, with the promise of sweat.


You live a dangerous life pott. Maybe you better have two cups to keep you going today. Just keep telling her how pretty she looks.
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2301. pottery
Quoting zampaz:

Is she single? ;)

She might be, soon.
It all depends on how hard she works me today......
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2299. zampaz
Quoting 2298. pottery:


heheheheheh

I'll have another cup of coffee, on that.

Then I'm off to perform a morning of Hard Labour, supervised by a Lady in Boots who is wielding a machete .

The weather?
Hazy, with the promise of sweat.

Is she single? ;)
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2298. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Well, I dropped before I was 70. Take life easy. It's not worth it.


heheheheheh

I'll have another cup of coffee, on that.

Then I'm off to perform a morning of Hard Labour, supervised by a Lady in Boots who is wielding a machete .

The weather?
Hazy, with the promise of sweat.
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2297. zampaz
Quoting 2283. pcola57:


Hey I live in Myrtle Grove..
Come on over..
Make before 8:30 though as I gotta go get a cat nutered..
It makes me sad.. :(
Glad my keeper didn't nuter me.. :)

Morning folks...
You're doing the right thing. The life of unwanted strays is sad.
Chances are good he'll live A LOT longer, get fewer abscesses from fighting and stay closer to home if he gets out.
Hope you can afford to have him chipped too.
Quoting 2257. Pallis:
Coffee is the devils brew, a dangerous, addictive stimulant grown by the same people who supply the world with cocaine. The only way to become a patriotic American again, and get that monkey off your back, is cold turkey. I won't even hire someone who drinks that stuff.

The devil serves coffee? Well count me in then!
It's a comforting thought that when they pry the cup from my cold dead fingers the coffee will go on and on.
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2296. Grothar
Quoting 2294. PensacolaDoug:
And prolly will be till I drop or get to 70 (whichever comes first).


Well, I dropped before I was 70. Take life easy. It's not worth it.
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2295. pcola57
Quoting 2286. barbamz:


Good morning and bye for the weekend as well. I'm out for some hiking and BBQ. You see it's hot in Germany and forecast tells us it will be even hotter next week (blame the jet stream, lol). Well, it's summer :)
Have a nice weekend everybody!


Same to you barb..
Hike your little socks off..
That must be fantastic BBQ for all that.. :)
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Quoting 2290. Grothar:


You're still working at your age??
And prolly will be till I drop or get to 70 (whichever comes first).
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Quoting 2292. Bluestorm5:
06Z GFS run was... um... interesting. 06z was much slower developing the storm than last two runs. Don't trust the 986 mb part, though. That's far out and it'll change for sure. CMC still got the storm, although it's much weaker and kill it in Caribbeans


And 06Z didn't killed it after 192 hours because it didn't go thru the Greater Antilles. (Hispanola)
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06Z GFS run was... um... interesting. 06z was much slower developing the storm than last two runs. Don't trust the 986 mb part, though. That's far out and it'll change for sure. CMC still got the storm, although it's much weaker and kill it in Caribbeans
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2291. Grothar
Quoting 2283. pcola57:


Hey I live in Myrtle Grove..
Come on over..
Make before 8:30 though as I gotta go get a cat nutered..
It makes me sad.. :(
Glad my keeper didn't nuter me.. :)


I'm sure the cat is not overjoyed much either!
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2290. Grothar
Quoting 2281. PensacolaDoug:


Wet. I gotta go out and work in Myrtle Grove by 7:30... Drag.


You're still working at your age??
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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