Wet June on the East Coast Raises Hurricane Flood Risk

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on July 16, 2013

June 2013 was the 15th warmest June in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Over three times as many record warm highs and lows occurred than record cold highs and lows during June. For the year-to-date period January - June, both temperature and precipitation over the contiguous U.S. have been above normal, ranking in the upper 33% and 23% of years, respectively.

According to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, June extremes were about 10% below average, and the year-to-date period January - June 2013 has been 20% below average.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Wet June on the East Coast raises hurricane flood risk
It was a very June for the contiguous U.S., ranking as the 13th wettest June since 1895. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June. The very wet June has brought some of the highest soil moisture levels ever recorded for July along much of the coast from Florida to Maine, increasing the chances of extreme flooding should this region receive a hit from a tropical storm or hurricane during the coming peak months of hurricane season. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model keeps the East Coast under a wetter-than-average weather pattern into early August, and the latest 1-month and 3-month precipitation outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also give above-average chances of wetter than average conditions. Lake Okeechobee in Florida is 1.4' above average for this time of year, and 5' higher than two years ago. While this still puts the lake 1.2' below what is considered high water, Lake Okeechobee water levels will need to be watched as we head into the peak part of hurricane season.


Figure 2. Historical precipitation ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June on record. Utah had its driest June on record, and Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming had a top-ten driest June. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 3. Soil moisture for July 14, 2013, expressed as percent average of the soil moisture observed between 1916 - 2004. Portions of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire are near their highest soil moisture levels on record for this time of year, increasing the odds of extreme flooding in those states should a tropical storm or hurricane hit this year. Image credit: University of Washington Variable Infiltration Capacity Macro-scale Hydrological Model, which includes soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and runoff.

Drought conditions remained relatively unchanged during June. According to the July 9 Drought Monitor report, about 45% of the contiguous U.S. is still in moderate or greater drought, compared to 44% at the beginning of June. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook issued on June 21 calls for little overall change in the U.S. area covered by drought conditions during the remainder of summer. Approximately 1.2 million acres of land burned in the U.S. during June, which is above average. However, the year-to-date total acreage burned is the second lowest in the past ten years.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days.

Jeff Masters

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2010 didnt see its season start until august 20th
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1269. pcola57
Quoting 1254. 69Viking:


My forecast calls for rain chances of just 30%-40% for the next 6 days. Hopefully that means just sea breeze thunderstorms inland and we can dry out some along the immediate coastline.


Morning 69Viking..
I hope to dry out some as well..
I see you had a decent Warned t'storm yesterday evening..
Or did it pass you by?..
I have been enjoying the less than average temps..
Had a surgery and am re-cooping..
Ready for the worst though..
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Quoting 1259. Tazmanian:
if we dont have any new name storms buy AUG 20th hurricane season will be a bust


The season ma be a bust but it only takes one to bust you up if your on the coast!
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Quoting 1259. Tazmanian:
if we dont have any new name storms buy AUG 20th hurricane season will be a bust


That is an emotional statement- not based on science.
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1266. LargoFl
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i think are high is a little too strong may be thats why where not see march in a way of any thing right now
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1234. Neapolitan:
October? What about August and September? I'm not saying 18/9/4 will happen, but it's far too early to say that it can't or won't. Remember in 2010 when the 'C' storm didn't form until August 3, and the 'D' storm not until August 22? And then after that it was off to the races, with the tally over the next 30 days up to 12/7/5, and a week later 14/7/5? With 23 of those days having at least two concurrent storms, and seven having three concurrent storms?

This year may be a dud so far as the final tally--but here in mid-July, that's a tough and premature call to make...


I like you thinking. The point is valid. Do you THINK 18/9/4 has a realistic chance?
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1263. LargoFl
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somehing to watch here!!
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Quoting 1259. Tazmanian:
if we dont have any new name storms buy AUG 20th hurricane season will be a bust


Unless we get an Andrew type storm make landfall somewhere around August 24th.............. :)
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1260. LargoFl
Quoting 1259. Tazmanian:
if we dont have any new name storms buy AUG 20th hurricane season will be a bust
well IF that does happen..its a good thing..folks lives get ruined when these storms hit...
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if we dont have any new name storms buy AUG 20th hurricane season will be a bust
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1258. RTLSNK
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the GFS doesnt develop the wave like its previous runs but still. it shows conditions will be favorable and end of july is where we should be watching for dorian
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1256. LargoFl
well it IS..our rainy season huh..at least we ARE getting it this year..
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NHC "testing" the South Florida area of clouds


NHC 88L TEST 20130717 1200 250N 0790W
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Quoting 1248. LargoFl:
GOOD MORNING..yes we need this drying out time also here on the gulf coast..but local mets say the rains return tomorrow..we'll see what happens.


My forecast calls for rain chances of just 30%-40% for the next 6 days. Hopefully that means just sea breeze thunderstorms inland and we can dry out some along the immediate coastline.
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Quoting 1242. CaribBoy:
What a disappointment... not only the GFS drops the wave, but it also shows a weakness in the ridge :( Weakness means fish and boring weather.
I think you are right about the weakness in the ridge
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Morning/Evening

A shower a day keeps the salt water at bay.
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1251. LargoFl
the rains return with a vengence florida starting tomorrow and maybe thru the weekend again.......
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Fact of the matter, in terms of numbers, is that you either have an average, above-average, or below-average season predictions. In the current active period, we have had above-average seasons in recent years and the Gray & Company "totals" predictions, whether from the May predictions or August updates have been pretty close to the end of season actual numbers.

My point is we have tons of folks on here (mostly trolls) who make all the pre-season comments about the season being a "bust" just to buck science or get a response from folks on here.

Just ignore their comments.
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1249. barbamz

Watching the waves, esp. the one at the Cape Verde Islands. --- Have a nice day, everyone!
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1248. LargoFl
Quoting 1245. 69Viking:
Good morning from a dry NW Florida! We haven't seen this low of a chance of rain in over a month. Forecast calls for a 20% chance of a stray afternoon thunderstorm today! Luckily the rain that passed yesterday missed my house and my yard should have a chance to dry out some!
GOOD MORNING..yes we need this drying out time also here on the gulf coast..but local mets say the rains return tomorrow..we'll see what happens.
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1247. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 AM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:30.2 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:12 miles
Temperature:81.7°F
Dewpoint:74.7°F
Humidity:79%
Wind:WSW 6 mph
Humidex: 101
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1246. pcola57
Quoting 1206. VR46L:


Neither would I as it would need to storm one a week for that forecast to work and when you consider the Atlantic is pretty much Shut down for business right now its going to be hard to see those numbers happening


Good Morning VR46L..
I agree to a point..
My #'s still stand at 16/6/4..
Not gonnna change them as I see it as a busy one coming up in 2 weeks..
I wouldn't change them anyway as that is what I really feel will come in at..
When Max started that list I started looking at long range and noticed how unstable even short term forecasts of the Bermuda High was and how strong the East Pac was predicted..
That takes away from our basin..
I do think that we will have plenty to watch and hopefully track out to sea..
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Good morning from a dry NW Florida! We haven't seen this low of a chance of rain in over a month. Forecast calls for a 20% chance of a stray afternoon thunderstorm today! Luckily the rain that passed yesterday missed my house and my yard should have a chance to dry out some!
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1244. barbamz

Some rain for Houston is moving in.
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Good Morning. Not too much to report this morning as to the Atlantic except the observation that the ITCZ is firing around the 8N-9N position per today's Hovmoller (below). Will start to rise in earnest to the 10N mark over the next four weeks.

Link

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What a disappointment... not only the GFS drops the wave, but it also shows a weakness in the ridge :( Weakness means fish and boring weather.
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26 WEST!!

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anyone look at 26 west!!
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1238. barbamz
Quoting 1236. Tazmanian:



there is nothing out there 97L was olny a test


I really wonder why WU has alleged 97L still on their start page. Some sort of revenge, lol?
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1237. bigtp3
Mornin' all!
Steady rain falling here in South Florida.

* AT 659 AM EDT... MINOR STREET FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE MIAMI BEACH, DORAL AND SWEETWATER AREAS. RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THIS REGION... AND HEAVIER RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP. SO THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

The standing water in my yard is going to be around a while longer...
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Quoting 1232. bryanfromkyleTX:


what is that in the Bay of Campeche'? Random storms? Could be a piece of it.



there is nothing out there 97L was olny a test
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1235. hydrus
Quoting 1231. StormPro:


I'm heading to Nashvegas Friday morning then over to Chattanooga Sunday thru Tuesday. So looking forward to a tad bit of difference in the daytime highs and nighttime lows
Theres a trough that is forecast to affect the area in a few days, should cool things off a little.
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Quoting 1212. Tropicsweatherpr:


Unless there is a good final season burst in October,I just can't see those 18/9/4 verifying.
October? What about August and September? I'm not saying 18/9/4 will happen, but it's far too early to say that it can't or won't. Remember in 2010 when the 'C' storm didn't form until August 3, and the 'D' storm not until August 22? And then after that it was off to the races, with the tally over the next 30 days up to 12/7/5, and a week later 14/7/5? With 23 of those days having at least two concurrent storms, and seven having three concurrent storms?

This year may be a dud so far as the final tally--but here in mid-July, that's a tough and premature call to make...
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1233. SLU
Quoting 1212. Tropicsweatherpr:


Unless there is a good final season burst in October,I just can't see those 18/9/4 verifying.


Remember in 2010 we had 2 storms by this date and ended up with 19.

In 2012, a year with less favourable conditions than this year, we had 4 storms in June, 0 in July and also ended with 19.

I see no season why we can't get at least 17 - 19 this year unless if August turns out to be unexpectedly quiet.

Five in August and 6 in September would put us at 14 named storms with 2 months to go. If the cold-biased neutral conditions hold, October could also be very active with 3 - 5 storms which would take us to 19 easily.

... and I didn't even mention the possibility of additional development in July.
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Quoting 1224. Tazmanian:



there is no 97L


what is that in the Bay of Campeche'? Random storms? Could be a piece of it.
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Quoting 1229. hydrus:
One could swim in the air there.


Here in Rock Island, TN-

Fair

70°F

21°C

Humidity93%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.38 in (1026.4 mb)
Dewpoint68°F (20°C)
Visibility8.00 mi

Last Update on 17 Jul 6:53 am CDT


I'm heading to Nashvegas Friday morning then over to Chattanooga Sunday thru Tuesday. So looking forward to a tad bit of difference in the daytime highs and nighttime lows
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 22W AND 26W IN THE ITCZ.
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1229. hydrus
Quoting 1226. StormPro:
Good morning all, 78 with 85% hymidity here in sticky NOLA
One could swim in the air there.


Here in Rock Island, TN-

Fair

70°F

21°C

Humidity93%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.38 in (1026.4 mb)
Dewpoint68°F (20°C)
Visibility8.00 mi

Last Update on 17 Jul 6:53 am CDT
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Tones of rain here in Boynton beach I don't mind its filling up my rain catcher
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1227. hydrus
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Good morning all, 78 with 85% hymidity here in sticky NOLA
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1225. barbamz
From Twitter

NWS Miami %u200F@NWSMiami 2m
Rains have been falling over a large portion of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties...Flood Advisory in effect! Please forward photos! #FLw
x

I was watching the Miami harbour cam the last hour. The rains really have been crazy! View was totally wiped out for some time. So there is no sense to post some screenshots, lol.

Edit:
Weather alert: Flood warning issued for Miami-Dade and Broward
An urban flood advisory was issued for Miami-Dade and Broward till 9:15 a.m. as many areas have received 1 to over 3 inches of rain.
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Quoting 1210. bryanfromkyleTX:
97L is "blobbing" up



there is no 97L
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The big picture...

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1222. hydrus
Quoting 1220. thunderstromsmike:
yes it is but take a look at the forcast for the next 4 to 6 weeks dry air and high shear wont give up they say..... could see drastically lower storms this year
You will not get any complaints from me if they do. Hurricanes have destroyed lives and killed many.
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1221. pottery
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

This is one of the most recent years I can remember in a long time where dry air is hardly an issue. Of course that could change in the upcoming weeks but I just don't see it right now.

Look at the WV image below. That's some pretty moist air...

Pssst. Dry air is the ugly orange color. I ain't seeing it.



But the white areas are very, VERY borderline.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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