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Wet June on the East Coast Raises Hurricane Flood Risk

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on July 16, 2013

June 2013 was the 15th warmest June in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Over three times as many record warm highs and lows occurred than record cold highs and lows during June. For the year-to-date period January - June, both temperature and precipitation over the contiguous U.S. have been above normal, ranking in the upper 33% and 23% of years, respectively.

According to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, June extremes were about 10% below average, and the year-to-date period January - June 2013 has been 20% below average.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Wet June on the East Coast raises hurricane flood risk
It was a very June for the contiguous U.S., ranking as the 13th wettest June since 1895. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June. The very wet June has brought some of the highest soil moisture levels ever recorded for July along much of the coast from Florida to Maine, increasing the chances of extreme flooding should this region receive a hit from a tropical storm or hurricane during the coming peak months of hurricane season. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model keeps the East Coast under a wetter-than-average weather pattern into early August, and the latest 1-month and 3-month precipitation outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also give above-average chances of wetter than average conditions. Lake Okeechobee in Florida is 1.4' above average for this time of year, and 5' higher than two years ago. While this still puts the lake 1.2' below what is considered high water, Lake Okeechobee water levels will need to be watched as we head into the peak part of hurricane season.


Figure 2. Historical precipitation ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June on record. Utah had its driest June on record, and Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming had a top-ten driest June. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 3. Soil moisture for July 14, 2013, expressed as percent average of the soil moisture observed between 1916 - 2004. Portions of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire are near their highest soil moisture levels on record for this time of year, increasing the odds of extreme flooding in those states should a tropical storm or hurricane hit this year. Image credit: University of Washington Variable Infiltration Capacity Macro-scale Hydrological Model, which includes soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and runoff.

Drought conditions remained relatively unchanged during June. According to the July 9 Drought Monitor report, about 45% of the contiguous U.S. is still in moderate or greater drought, compared to 44% at the beginning of June. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook issued on June 21 calls for little overall change in the U.S. area covered by drought conditions during the remainder of summer. Approximately 1.2 million acres of land burned in the U.S. during June, which is above average. However, the year-to-date total acreage burned is the second lowest in the past ten years.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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LOL Andre ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 864. HurricaneAndre:
Yes there is.


In case you haven't seen the NHC facebook message,here it is.

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center (facebook)

We've gotten at least one phone call from someone wondering why guidance models were run on "Invest AL97" today, even though we're not mentioning anything in our Tropical Weather Outlook. This invest was started purely for testing purposes in connection with the planned transition to the new NWS supercomputer next week. Once the testing has been completed, the invest AL97 will be deactivated.

We know that people tend to follow these invest systems more closely now than in the past, but this should serve as a reminder that invests can be opened for a variety of reasons, not all of them meteorological.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 862. HurricaneAndre:




there is no 97L that was a TEST
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Quoting 864. HurricaneAndre:
Yes there is.


No there is NOT
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865. Kyon5
Quoting 864. HurricaneAndre:
Yes there is.
invest_DEACTIVATE_al972013.ren It was a test. It only lasted about 2 hours.
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Quoting 861. Bluestorm5:


97L was never a true invest. It was a test by NHC. There's no 97L.
Yes there is.
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sigh


NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
3 hours ago near Miami, FL

We've gotten at least one phone call from someone wondering why guidance models were run on "Invest AL97" today, even though we're not mentioning anything in our Tropical Weather Outlook. This invest was started purely for testing purposes in connection with the planned transition to the new NWS supercomputer next week. Once the testing has been completed, the invest AL97 will be deactivated.

We know that people tend to follow these invest systems more closely now than in the past, but this should serve as a reminder that invests can be opened for a variety of reasons, not all of them meteorological.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
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Quoting 858. HurricaneAndre:
We have 97L now.


97L was never a true invest. It was a test by NHC. There's no 97L.
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ABNT20 KNHC 162303
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 858. HurricaneAndre:
We have 97L now.




no we dont that 97L was olny a test its gone all ready
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Quoting 854. Tropicsweatherpr:


For what?
We have 97L now.
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ABNT20 KNHC 162303
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 853. HurricaneAndre:
He comes the yellow crayon box for the NHC.



nop lol


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Quoting 594. wxmod:
North Pole webcam today.



They must have moved the camera. What you posted only showed the left one third of the what camera #2 normally shows. That was what threw me off, thanks.
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Quoting 853. HurricaneAndre:
He comes the yellow crayon box for the NHC.


For what?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
He comes the yellow crayon box for the NHC.
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Quoting 839. JustDucky251:


Either that or there's some pretty quick weather out there.
It's both that's what makes it hard to forecast that far out.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
the 0Z and 12Z model runs are the best to follow
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Quoting 844. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Alright everyone gather in group hug, a toast to the great members of Wunderground.


I wasn't being facetious. There are a large number of excellent minds working this blog. The level of experience and knowledge of terminology and data accrual varies greatly.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Also seems to be a little swirl just SE of Corpus Christi, TX, in the NW GOM. Not sure if that is anything or just from T-storms roiling about today. The GOM is started to look like a bathtub full of kids, all wet & turbulent. -- Time will tell.
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We got 97L now.
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Check out Severestudios with several Twitter news about a damaging lightning strike at Pittsburgh.

RT @TimWilliamsCBS: Reports that Pittsburgh Immaculate Heart of Mary church struck by lightning & dome is smoking pic.twitter.com/WLhVo2AWfm



RT @RyanHokeWAVE3: Crazy lightning strike in Pittsburgh! RT @timbetler: View from USX pic.twitter.com/lpAfthKLtQ #PAwx

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Quoting 840. zampaz:

Glad to meet ya JustDucky251.
We have at least one thing in common.
Follow the energy. Atmospheric physics, complex and specific, but the simple underlying principles of thermodynamics are duck soup. How much energy comes in, how much is stored, what are the transfer mechanisms and how much goes out.


I suspect our understanding of all the various transfer mechanisms.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 841. Stormchaser121:

Thats what it looks like! Humberto 2007.


Ohh..
Ok..
I get it now.. :p
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Alright everyone gather in group hug, a toast to the great members of Wunderground.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
what up with the high here lots of red here!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
cmc model has stupid fits hungry for a cyclone
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 832. pcola57:


???

Thats what it looks like! Humberto 2007.
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Quoting 786. JustDucky251:


One might take a broader view of what is relevant to tropical systems. Atmospheric energy is highly relevant. Possible sources are also relevant. So are the effects of wind gusts on the local population.

As a degreed physicist, I do know something about energy relationships and interrelations of various systems.

Glad to meet ya JustDucky251.
We have at least one thing in common.
Follow the energy. Atmospheric physics, complex and specific, but the simple underlying principles of thermodynamics are duck soup. How much energy comes in, how much is stored, what are the transfer mechanisms and how much goes out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 834. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Obviously it has to come down to the data fed into these models for the huge discrepancies from run to run.


Either that or there's some pretty quick weather out there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
837. SLU
Quoting 822. KoritheMan:


If I constantly downcast everything and say it won't happen, eventually I'm going to be right too, lol.

Sorry, but I'm going to continue stubbornly clinging to the inherent uselessness of the Euro when it comes to predictions of cyclone genesis.


Same can be said if I hype every wave coming off Africa too!

But yeah the EURO is having an especially bad year this year, far worst than the halcyon days of around 2010.
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Hopefully not off topic but I found some very good information on NWS website about Heat Illness. Be careful out in the heat; heat illness can sneak up on you very quickly.



Heat: A Major Killer


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Quoting 831. MississippiWx:


My bad, Taz. I'll give you a hug and make it all better.
Quoting 833. Tazmanian:

thats ok
You guys are so cute :)
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Alright let's do a comparison here because the pressure patterns don't line up from the 12z run to the 18z run and could explain why we don't see development on the 18z run.

12z A-B high holding firm actually stronger on this run:



18z again A-B high holding firm weaker on this run:



but notice the synoptic pressure pattern over the US and Canada and how different they are. Obviously it has to come down to the data fed into these models for the huge discrepancies from run to run.
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Quoting 831. MississippiWx:


My bad, Taz. I'll give you a hug and make it all better.






thats ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 829. Stormchaser121:

Humberto Humberto Humberto!


???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 826. Tazmanian:




and plzs dont call me Tazzy Wazzy that names sounds like more like for a 3 year old wish am not a 3 year old


My bad, Taz. I'll give you a hug and make it all better.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
While the BOC disturbance is capturing some interest, I notice the Florida disturbance has gotten more organized, today. It also seems to be taking a hook in a westerly manner over that state, which is somewhat alarming.

I wondered earlier when someone mentioned it possibly heading West towards Texas, but that scenario looks much more possible, now, with plenty of room to roam. Is this the route of the great Galveston hurricane that claimed so many lives all those years ago? If it crosses the GOM below the northern GOM coast, instead of clipping the NE corner of the GOM, this will allow time to both build and to terrorize everyone along the entire gulf coast (except Florida maybe). Wow, that could be quite an event, IF (if, if..) so.
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Quoting 809. pcola57:
97L Water Vapor..


Humberto Humberto Humberto!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 815. sar2401:

Not always easy, is it?


No, it is not easy. There are very many factors to consider, which are often not obvious. Limiting discussion to the obvious factors limits the conceptualizing done by many of the very intelligent bloggers here. If we do not expand our views, our analyses will always be limited to what we have now. I would hope that as a collective mind we could help improve our understanding by piquing each others curiosity.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Raptor112305:
I don't know if you guys seen but this is from the NHC's Facebook page regarding our invest 97L.

We've gotten at least one phone call from someone wondering why guidance models were run on "Invest AL97" today, even though we're not mentioning anything in our Tropical Weather Outlook. This invest was started purely for testing purposes in connection with the planned transition to the new NWS supercomputer next week. Once the testing has been completed, the invest AL97 will be deactivated.

We know that people tend to follow these invest systems more closely now than in the past, but this should serve as a reminder that invests can be opened for a variety of reasons, not all of them meteorological.

Link

The "ghost" 97L has been a topic of discussion for hours here. When I come back to the blog after being away, even for a couple of hours, I usually start about three pages back and read forward, just so I have an idea of what's going on and what's being discussed.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 821. MississippiWx:


MDR stretches from Africa to Central America, Tazzy Wazzy.




and plzs dont call me Tazzy Wazzy that names sounds like more like for a 3 year old wish am not a 3 year old
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Regarding Long range Models, and those operational..one word.

CONSENSEUS
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
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Quoting 813. SLU:


lol. As bad as the EURO may be at cyclogenesis, it hardly ever generates "ghost" storms as much as the GFS and CMC and actually tends to be more reliable when storms do not form.


If I constantly downcast everything and say it won't happen, eventually I'm going to be right too, lol.

Sorry, but I'm going to continue stubbornly clinging to the inherent uselessness of the Euro when it comes to predictions of cyclone genesis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 814. Tazmanian:




i said MDR not the Caribbean


MDR stretches from Africa to Central America, Tazzy Wazzy.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weath ermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097

"Look at model trends. If the low pressure moved east with this run, what did it do the run before that? For the GFS, look at a couple days of 00Z and 12Z runs for consistency. Avoid the 06Z and 18Z runs when 00 or 12 is available; in the U.S. these runs don't include the weather balloon network data (balloons are only sent up twice per day), and are therefore radically different and more likely to have bias."
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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