A Gulf of Mexico and an Eastern Atlantic Disturbance Worth Watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on July 06, 2013

A tropical disturbance (designated 94L by NHC on Friday) is over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and is headed north towards the Texas/Louisiana coast at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity that has been steadily growing this morning. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, since Friday, and the lower wind shear is likely responsible for the increase in thunderstorm activity. A trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into the west side of 94L, interfering with development. The disturbance should move inland by Sunday morning, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3" along the Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts through Monday morning. None of the reliable forecast models predict that the disturbance will develop, and the disturbance has only a day over water with marginal conditions for development. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 1. The Saturday morning NHC Tropical Weather Outlook shows two "Invests" worth watching: 94L over the Gulf of Mexico (area 1), and 95L over the Eastern Atlantic (area 2.) Both were given 20% chances of developing by Monday. Image credit: NHC.

Cape Verdes tropical wave 95L
As we approach mid-July, it's time to begin turning our attention to tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. We have our first such system worthy of attention today, a tropical wave designated 95L over the Eastern Atlantic near 8°N 33°W, about 800 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that is showing a moderate amount of spin. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28°C. The 8 am EDT Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model predicted that 95L would encounter cooler waters of 27.5°C over the weekend as it headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate though Monday, which may allow for some additional organization. However, 95L is embedded in a very large area of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and July African waves typically have considerable trouble getting organized in the very dry air of the SAL. The disturbance could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday. A band a strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream is expected to be over the northern islands at that time, and if 95L has penetrated as far north as 15°N latitude by that time, it will have to face very high wind shear of 30+ knots. But if 95L stays farther to the south, wind shear should be lower, giving the storm a better chance of development. None of the reliable forecast models predict that 95L will develop. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of 95L taken at approximately 11 am EDT Saturday, July 6, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico will move west over the next dew days, arriving in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Tuesday. The models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation, and there is only minimal heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is brushing the southwestern coast of Mexico, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon. Erick will bring heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to Southwest Mexico, but the core of the storm is currently expected to remain just offshore. Erick will likely weaken to a tropical storm on Monday, when it will pass just south of Baja.

Cool San Francisco time-lapse fog video
Videographer Simon Christen has created a spectacular 4-minute time-lapse video of fog rushing in past the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco. He writes: ""Adrift" is a love letter to the fog of the San Francisco Bay Area. I chased it for over two years to capture the magical interaction between the soft mist, the ridges of the California coast and the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. This is where “Adrift” was born. The weather conditions have to be just right for the fog to glide over the hills and under the bridge. I developed a system for trying to guess when to make the drive out to shoot, which involved checking the weather forecast, satellite images and webcams multiple times a day. For about 2 years, if the weather looked promising, I would set my alarm to 5am, recheck the webcams, and then set off on the 45-minute drive to the Marin Headlands. I spent many mornings hiking in the dark to only find that the fog was too high, too low, or already gone by the time I got there. Luckily, once in a while the conditions would be perfect and I was able to capture something really special. Adrift is a collection of my favorite shots from these excursions into the ridges of the Marin Headlands."


Video 1. Adrift from Simon Christen on Vimeo.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 38. caribbeantracker01:


nope soon you will be surprised look at the visible and radar images to justify why



Trust MissWx, it's a big mess. As TropicalAnalyst put it yesterday, "large low pressure trough with forced convection".
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Quoting 47. hurricanes2018:
I think 30% at 2pm and 40% at 8pm


Naw that is quite conservative given that fact that its close to becoming a TD just need some more evidence before doing anything. I will need some more convection to fire up over the LLC as the NHC waits regardless of evidence of closed low for more consistent convection over the LLCOC before upgrading it. With that being said 40% seems like a good bet but I personally would give it 60%.
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Quoting 44. Tazmanian:



but i see the modes taking it a way from rhew caribbean




For sure, Taz-and if it gets near/above 20N it may have a short-term battle with some wind shear.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 158 Comments: 20205
95L is going really fast is the main issue now, need slow down!!!if that happens TD is not rule out!!!
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Quoting 43. hydrus:
We are getting drenched here on the plateau again.
">


Haha, doing a light drizzle here in North Nashville hydrus.

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Quoting 36. washingtonian115:

Stop that Wash...there are reasons..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 28487
Quoting 37. Ricki13th:
Alright I decided to make a mini poll the see what everyone's thoughts are.

When do you think 95L will develop (if at all)?
A. Sometime Today
B. Sunday
C. Monday
D. After it enters the Caribbean/SW Atlantic
E. It will not develop/Etc

I will have to say B or C


95L looking very impressive. Puerto Rico/Lesser Antilles need to watch for at least a Tropical Storm.

Answer to your poll is B
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Quoting 42. Tazmanian:
i can see 95L going up too 40 or 50% at the next two
I think 30% at 2pm and 40% at 8pm
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Quoting Ricki13th:
Alright I decided to make a mini poll the see what everyone's thoughts are.

When do you think 95L will develop (if at all)?
A. Sometime Today
B. Sunday
C. Monday
D. After it enters the Caribbean/SW Atlantic
E. It will not develop/Etc

I will have to say B or C

Since it is already Sunday here I will say C or D.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16227
.
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Quoting 41. beell:
Still some "modeled" disruptively fast, deep layer trade winds awaiting 95L as it approaches the Windwards if it chooses to track into the Caribbean Dead Zone.



but i see the modes taking it a way from rhew caribbean


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
We are getting drenched here on the plateau again.
">
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 28487
i can see 95L going up too 40 or 50% at the next two
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
Still some "modeled" disruptively fast, deep layer trade winds awaiting 95L as it approaches the Windwards .
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 158 Comments: 20205
Quoting 39. MississippiWx:
Since we're on a new blog now, here's the link to 95L's visible floater:

Link




95L looking vary good
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
Since we're on a new blog now, here's the link to 95L's visible floater again:

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10301
Quoting 28. MississippiWx:
94L has absolutely nothing going for it at the surface. It's just a big mess.



nope soon you will be surprised look at the visible and radar images to justify why

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Alright I decided to make a mini poll the see what everyone's thoughts are.

When do you think 95L will develop (if at all)?
A. Sometime Today
B. Sunday
C. Monday
D. After it enters the Caribbean/SW Atlantic
E. It will not develop/Etc

I will have to say B or C
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Quoting 21. hydrus:
looks rather potent. The thunderstorms look like there gathering for a meeting. :)

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Quoting 1256. Grothar:
It looks like all preliminary models have 95L North of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in 5-6 days. It looks so good in form that it may not be far away from depression status.


And 94L is looking better in each frame.


And with all that shear......... If conditions were to become more favorable, 94L could be a potential problem for some folks.<>img src="">
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 28487
94s camp we need to have a meeting. stress time is almost up 9th inning even the dr against it. come on now this is the gulf of mexico. it would be funny if the ull gets the c name
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Since Dr. Masters was kind enough to post his new blog just as I was about to click the 'post comment' button for my GM post - thus saving me the humiliation of having to post it twice, I offer it up now for your amusement...

Good Morning!
Getting a late start today. I see the blog is starting to hop. Lots of circles and arrows (it's enough to make police officer William "Obie" Obanhein proud) and exciting forecasts! Please forgive me while I briefly butt-in with my usual daily presentation of our local morning views...

6:37 am (10:37 GMT)

This was a pleasant surprise to the neighborhood. The new Lantana drawbridge, which has been under construction for over a year now, has got its center-span installed and in the upright position. The scheduled reopening in November - including a $25K fireworks display - is much anticipated. Hopefully, there'll be no hurricane-related delays.


Dexter peers over the seawall by the boat-ramps eyeballing various scurrying creatures. I have to be careful, he fell in once and I had to jump in after him!
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Updated 12z Best Track for Erick increase winds to 70kts.

EP, 05, 2013070612, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1040W, 70, 984, HU
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 76 Comments: 16894
Quoting SLU:


Very nice!

When that SAL clears out in a few weeks oh boy.
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am turning too 95L wish has a way better ch of doing some in
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
Thanks for the updated blog Dr. Masters.. very good blog
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94L has absolutely nothing going for it at the surface. It's just a big mess.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10301
To mow, or not to mow: that is the question.

In central Texas, just North of Austin, and looking at a lawn that is once-again starting to brown. If I mow it, and 94L dissipates or redirects, I will surely brown. If I don't mow, and 94L comes through, I will have missed one of the few chances to mow that I'll have this Summer - And I really hate those stickers that pop-up in my field, when I avoid mowing for too long.

Why is it that every bit of weather, for the past several years, seems to go around us? Coming from New ORleans, and having literally been born during Hurricane Camille, I'm just not used to this. Give us rain!
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Well I made my 8th year on here and it has been a "Wild Ride" LOL.....

But I'll be back later on today Grandson Birthday today and will be heading over to west Mobile.... Although I might need a Boat because of all of the Rain :o)

Play Nice and we'll chat later....

Taco :o)
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Quoting 19. JrWeathermanFL:

At the moment it seems no models predict hurricane status out of it...except maybe the SHIPS.
Yeah because of the Subtropical Jet that will be Over Puerto Rico. But if it becomes something before with some proper outflow may cause the STJ to weaken some. 
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Quoting 21. hydrus:
looks rather potent. The thunderstorms look like there gathering for a meeting. :)

I was noticing the gathering of the thunderstorms too. Maybe they'll persist.
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22. SLU
Quoting 16. Tropicsweatherpr:


Or maybe a ship reports from the area strong winds.


Yes preferably to the south to confirm the closed low.
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Quoting 14. Grothar:
94L looking better

looks rather potent. The thunderstorms look like there gathering for a meeting. :)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 28487
"...Luckily, once in a while the conditions would be perfect and I was able to capture something really special..." - is an understatement. Incredible. Brought a tear to my eye. I'll have to save this vid, maybe put it in the Hurricane Guide just for tranquility purposes. Thanks to Mr. Christen, and Dr. Masters.
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Quoting 15. SLU:

At the moment it seems no models predict hurricane status out of it...except maybe the SHIPS.
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We will see if it can develop an ULAC before reaching in the vicinity of Puerto Rico. 
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Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
Quoting 13. SLU:


Yes you can see the strong rotation near the center showing a very organised system which may already be a TD. However it will not be renumbered anytime soon unless more conclusive data arrives such as an ASCAT pass and of course, persistence.

But yes, this is a very impressive early-July wave.



Or maybe a ship reports from the area strong winds.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 76 Comments: 16894
15. SLU
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94L looking better

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13. SLU
Quoting 1242. MississippiWx:


One could argue that it's already a tropical depression.

Link


Yes you can see the strong rotation near the center showing a very organised system which may already be a TD. However it will not be renumbered anytime soon unless more conclusive data arrives such as an ASCAT pass and of course, persistence.

But yes, this is a very impressive early-July wave.

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EP, 05, 2013070612, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1042W, 65, 987, HU
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
Quoting 8. interstatelover7165:
95L definitely has a better chance of developing than 94L.
A cape Verde storm in early July would be interesting.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 28487
Thanks Doc.
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Quoting 1235. JrWeathermanFL:
95L reminds me of Igor's depression. 95L definately has a surface circulation and is sustaining convection. It's also in and heading toward a favorable atmosphere. It just needs to miss the SAL..

Absolutely. I mentioned yesterday 95L textbook in appearance on the satellite image.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 28487
95L definitely has a better chance of developing than 94L.

P.S. Thanks Dr. Masters.
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The waters in the CATL do however support something anomalous happening

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Thanks Dr Master for the Update
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Thank you Dr. M
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Thanks Doc for another tropical blog.I'm more interested in 95L than 94L.
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