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A Gulf of Mexico and an Eastern Atlantic Disturbance Worth Watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on July 06, 2013

A tropical disturbance (designated 94L by NHC on Friday) is over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and is headed north towards the Texas/Louisiana coast at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity that has been steadily growing this morning. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, since Friday, and the lower wind shear is likely responsible for the increase in thunderstorm activity. A trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into the west side of 94L, interfering with development. The disturbance should move inland by Sunday morning, bringing heavy rains of 1 - 3" along the Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts through Monday morning. None of the reliable forecast models predict that the disturbance will develop, and the disturbance has only a day over water with marginal conditions for development. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 1. The Saturday morning NHC Tropical Weather Outlook shows two "Invests" worth watching: 94L over the Gulf of Mexico (area 1), and 95L over the Eastern Atlantic (area 2.) Both were given 20% chances of developing by Monday. Image credit: NHC.

Cape Verdes tropical wave 95L
As we approach mid-July, it's time to begin turning our attention to tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. We have our first such system worthy of attention today, a tropical wave designated 95L over the Eastern Atlantic near 8°N 33°W, about 800 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that is showing a moderate amount of spin. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are warm, 28°C. The 8 am EDT Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model predicted that 95L would encounter cooler waters of 27.5°C over the weekend as it headed west to west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Wind shear is expected to remain moderate though Monday, which may allow for some additional organization. However, 95L is embedded in a very large area of dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and July African waves typically have considerable trouble getting organized in the very dry air of the SAL. The disturbance could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday. A band a strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream is expected to be over the northern islands at that time, and if 95L has penetrated as far north as 15°N latitude by that time, it will have to face very high wind shear of 30+ knots. But if 95L stays farther to the south, wind shear should be lower, giving the storm a better chance of development. None of the reliable forecast models predict that 95L will develop. In their 8 am EDT July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday.


Figure 2. MODIS image of 95L taken at approximately 11 am EDT Saturday, July 6, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico will move west over the next dew days, arriving in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Tuesday. The models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation, and there is only minimal heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is brushing the southwestern coast of Mexico, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon. Erick will bring heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to Southwest Mexico, but the core of the storm is currently expected to remain just offshore. Erick will likely weaken to a tropical storm on Monday, when it will pass just south of Baja.

Cool San Francisco time-lapse fog video
Videographer Simon Christen has created a spectacular 4-minute time-lapse video of fog rushing in past the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco. He writes: ""Adrift" is a love letter to the fog of the San Francisco Bay Area. I chased it for over two years to capture the magical interaction between the soft mist, the ridges of the California coast and the iconic Golden Gate Bridge. This is where “Adrift” was born. The weather conditions have to be just right for the fog to glide over the hills and under the bridge. I developed a system for trying to guess when to make the drive out to shoot, which involved checking the weather forecast, satellite images and webcams multiple times a day. For about 2 years, if the weather looked promising, I would set my alarm to 5am, recheck the webcams, and then set off on the 45-minute drive to the Marin Headlands. I spent many mornings hiking in the dark to only find that the fog was too high, too low, or already gone by the time I got there. Luckily, once in a while the conditions would be perfect and I was able to capture something really special. Adrift is a collection of my favorite shots from these excursions into the ridges of the Marin Headlands."


Video 1. Adrift from Simon Christen on Vimeo.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting 1701. KoritheMan:


They're literally taking it up to 60 kt in 48 hours. That's beyond unlikely.

Hmm well... Maybe in 72hrs
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Quoting 1692. FOREX:


Eastern atlantic wave trying to gain latitude and is organizing nicely.
Is it a TD yet? I try looking on my fone but all i saw was 20%
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Quoting 1699. wunderkidcayman:

I'd say the best one to what I think may happen is the CLP5
And in intensity I'd say strong TS weak Hurricane for now



I think the CLP5 has a good handle up front. And then I would prefer a blend of the clp5 and the cmc for longer term.

Agree on the strength.
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Quoting 1699. wunderkidcayman:

I'd say the best one to what I think may happen is the CLP5
And in intensity I'd say strong TS weak Hurricane for now



They're literally taking it up to 60 kt in 48 hours. That's beyond unlikely.
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What's up civicane49 trying to have a full page with your comments
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Quoting 1680. KoritheMan:




Disagree very strongly with both of these.

I'd say the best one to what I think may happen is the CLP5
And in intensity I'd say strong TS weak Hurricane for now

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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013

DALILA LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH A
SMALL PATCH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER...THIS CERTAINLY DOES NOT MEET THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
REQUIREMENT FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...DALILA HAS NOT
PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR SOME TIME. THEREFORE...DALILA
IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 25 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM
AROUND 0430 UTC.

THE REMNANT LOW IS DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
EASTWARD LATER TODAY...AND THEN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS IT GETS
DRAWN INTO THE CIRCULATION OF ERICK. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 16.8N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 07/1800Z 16.8N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/0600Z 17.1N 112.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1800Z 18.0N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NNNN
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HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A SMALL CDO ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 70 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ERICK WILL
BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SO STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 H...ERICK WILL BE OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 20 DEG C...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO
A REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME.

BLENDING OF VARIOUS CENTER FIXES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 310/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PROGNOSTIC TRACK FORECAST
REASONING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS
IS ALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NORTH OF
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF PREDICTIONS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF ERICK AND THE FORECAST...THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED EAST OF MANZANILLO.
ALSO...SINCE IT IS NOW UNLIKELY THAT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
MOVE OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES IS ALSO DISCONTINUED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 19.2N 106.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.2N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 23.3N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 24.8N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0600Z 25.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013

...ERICK CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 106.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
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Dalila is finally dead.

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013

...DALILA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 113.0W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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1692. FOREX
Quoting 1691. bigwes6844:
just got off everyone hows the tropics looking any strong activity?


Eastern atlantic wave trying to gain latitude and is organizing nicely.
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just got off everyone hows the tropics looking any strong activity?
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Goodnight all. Been fun.
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You work in the field Stormchaser2007? Great view 1685.
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Quoting 1685. Stormchaser2007:
by the looks of it,it looks like a TD.
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Experimental forecast track based on climo and DT numbers


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Quoting 1683. Tribucanes:


LOL, the party's over. Who invited Kori anyway? Kori's right up there with Levi though, so he's probably right. Or are you just messing with us Kori? What do you think of how 95L currently looks?


I don't know if I'd compare myself to Levi, but a lot of the knowledge I have about the tropics comes from him. I respect him a lot, and he and I have participated in many spirited debates in the past. We don't always agree, but we're both very evidential, and we both try and back up our claims with facts. You'll never see either of us just make stuff up; it's unacceptable.

95L continues to organize, and there's a reason I went higher than the NHC's 30% when I made my blog a couple hours ago.
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Quoting 1678. wunderkidcayman:

Hey stop that
I'm joking man. :) It's going to hit some kind of landmass as it's probably 2-2 1/2 days away from the Leeward Islands.
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Quoting 1673. KoritheMan:


Well they won't.


LOL, the party's over. Who invited Kori anyway? Kori's right up there with Levi though, so he's probably right. Or are you just messing with us Kori? What do you think of how 95L currently looks?
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Quoting 1679. huntsvle:


Indeed, with good westerly flow into the gulf.

My prediction could very well happen.
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Quoting 1678. wunderkidcayman:

Hey stop that


HEY!! he's not downcasting anymore :-P
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Disagree very strongly with both of these.
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Quoting 1676. Stormchaser121:

Looks to be prettyyyy far west....


Indeed, with good westerly flow into the gulf.
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Quoting 1675. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Now that you said that ,watch it be a fish storm.

Hey stop that
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Quoting 1673. KoritheMan:


Well they won't.
I agree they won't jump the gun that quick. If they do I'll be surprised.
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Quoting 1674. huntsvle:



GFS day 10




Looks to be prettyyyy far west....
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Quoting 1671. wunderkidcayman:

That why I say fish storms and Atlantic recurvature are a lot less likely this year
Now that you said that ,watch it be a fish storm.
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Quoting 1669. Stormchaser121:

Mhmmm....been pretty strong and far west this year so far



GFS day 10



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Quoting 1657. Camille33:
95l has clearly developed into a tropical cyclone, I would be shocked if nhc doesnt go td by 8am.


Well they won't.
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Quoting 1663. Stormchaser121:

Its been my prediction from the start! We will see if it plays out!
A part of me wants this thing to develop and the other part doesn't. If it develops at least we will have something to track and that will bring a lot more bloggers out of the woodshed and if it doesn't develop my prediction of not seeing a named storm in July will still be good or at least delayed until the next AOI. But then again I don't really care if I have to eat crow I'll eat crow.
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Quoting 1669. Stormchaser121:

Mhmmm....been pretty strong and far west this year so far

That why I say fish storms and Atlantic recurvature are a lot less likely this year
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Quoting 1667. huntsvle:


:-P getting all conservative

Hahahahahaha lol

Oh boy
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Quoting 1664. huntsvle:


That's a possibility for sure...GFS does some interesting stuff with the ridge past day 10

Mhmmm....been pretty strong and far west this year so far
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Quoting 1666. Tribucanes:


Come on wunderkidcayman, that's enough downcasting out of you. :) ;)

LOLx10000000000000!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I haven't heard people tell me that in a while
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Quoting 1666. Tribucanes:


Come on wunderkidcayman, that's enough downcasting out of you. :) ;)


:-P getting all conservative
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Quoting 1662. wunderkidcayman:

Well I don't know maybe 50-60% atleast


Come on wunderkidcayman, that's enough downcasting out of you. :) ;)
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Quoting 1659. Camille33:
Dvorak estimates are at 1.5/1.5...since that time the ir imagery continues to suggest organization with spiral banding developing as well as increasing outflow to the western semi-circle.

Agreed
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Quoting 1660. GTstormChaserCaleb:
And that is quite possible if the Bermuda High noses its way into the East Coast of the US and the trough lifts out closing the gap, then the system could tuck under the Ridge and feel the steering of the Central Plains Ridge.


That's a possibility for sure...GFS does some interesting stuff with the ridge past day 10
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Quoting 1660. GTstormChaserCaleb:
And that is quite possible if the Bermuda High noses its way into the East Coast of the US and the trough lifts out closing the gap, then the system could tuck under the Ridge and feel the steering of the Central Plains Ridge.

Its been my prediction from the start! We will see if it plays out!
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Quoting 1657. Camille33:
95l has clearly developed into a tropical cyclone, I would be shocked if nhc doesnt go td by 8am.

Well I don't know maybe 50-60% atleast
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Quoting 1658. Stormchaser121:

Sure was! I remember it all too well. Thats why i'm putting my own prediction mixed with the models. I'm trying not to rely 100% on models. So my prediction is Freeport...I could be very wrong...but thats it.


aaaggghhh. Ike was quite the experience...yeeesh.
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Quoting 1653. Stormchaser121:

Well...im not saying it WOULD do this...but because of how far south it is and some of the ensembles for the spaghetti models bring it into the gulf rather than up north to FL and AL...if that Bermuda high is strong enough it would head that way. Ive seen it happen way too many times. Ike at first they said out to sea...then Florida....then they kept moving it west to Galveston, all cause of that Bermuda high.
And that is quite possible if the Bermuda High noses its way into the East Coast of the US and the trough lifts out closing the gap, then the system could tuck under the Ridge and feel the steering of the Central Plains Ridge.
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Dvorak estimates are at 1.5/1.5...since that time the ir imagery continues to suggest organization with spiral banding developing as well as increasing outflow to the western semi-circle.
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Quoting 1656. Tribucanes:
I like your reasoning Stormchaser121. Ike was a beast of a cat.2, stronger than many cat.3's.

Sure was! I remember it all too well. Thats why i'm putting my own prediction mixed with the models. I'm trying not to rely 100% on models. So my prediction is Freeport...I could be very wrong...but thats it.
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95l has clearly developed into a tropical cyclone, I would be shocked if nhc doesnt go td by 8am.
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I like your reasoning Stormchaser121. Ike was a beast of a cat.2, stronger than many cat.3's.
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850 vort

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Quoting 1651. huntsvle:


We didn't say TS

I know but I was just sayin yeah NHC may up to code red and may even upgrade to TD but TS ain't going to come till recon flys which was just an add on to what was being said
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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