Historic Heat Wave Reponsible for Death Valley's 129°F Gradually Weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:22 PM GMT on July 02, 2013

One of the greatest heat waves in North American history peaked on Sunday and Monday, but will still bring some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded to portions of the Western U.S. during the afternoon today. The extraordinary heat wave, caused by an unusually extreme standing wave pattern in the jet stream, brought Earth's highest June temperature ever recorded on Sunday, June 30, when the mercury hit 129.2°F (54.0°C) in Death Valley, California. The only higher temperatures ever recorded on the planet occurred in Death Valley on July 10, 12, and 13, 1913, when readings of 134°F, 130°F, and 131°F were recorded. This 100 year-old record heat wave has many doubters, though, including Mr. Burt, who noted in a 2010 blog post that "The record has been scrutinized perhaps more than any other in the United States. I don't have much more to add to the debate aside from my belief it is most likely not a valid reading when one looks at all the evidence. Normally when Death Valley records its hottest temperatures they occur during region-wide heat waves. On July 10, 1913 the next highest temperatures recorded in southern California (aside from Greenland Ranch) were just 119° at Heber and 118° at Mammoth Tank." If Mr. Burt is correct, then this Sunday's temperature of 129.2°F in Death Valley was the hottest temperature in recorded history on Earth.


Figure 1. The official Furnace Creek, Death Valley maximum recording thermometer for the maximum temperature measured on June 30th, 2013. The 129.2°F reading was the highest June temperature ever measured on Earth. Photo courtesy of Death Valley National Park and NWS-Las Vegas.

As documented by Mr. Burt in this latest blog post, some of the all-time records from the 2013 heat wave:

June 27, 2013
102° Santa Fe, NM: all-time heat record
105° Albuquerque, NM: tied 2nd highest temperature on record

June 28, 2013
105° Salt Lake City, UT: hottest June temperature on record
114° Zion National Park, UT: hottest June temp on record, and only 1° short of their all-time record of 115°

June 29, 2013
100° Ely, Nevada: hottest June temperature on record (previous 99° June 22, 1954)
101° Eureka, Nevada: hottest June temperature on record (previous 98° on two occasions)
105° Salt Lake City, Utah: hottest June temperature on record (again, see June 28)
122° Palm Springs, California: hottest June temperature on record (tied June 28, 1994) and 1° short of all-time record of 123° set on August 1, 1993
128° Death Valley, California: hottest June temperature on record (tied previous 128° set on June 29, 1994)
It was 119° in Phoenix, Arizona their 4th warmest reading on record.

June 30, 2013
129° Death Valley, California: Earth's all-time hottest June temperature
115° Lancaster, California: all--time heat record (previous record 114° on July 18 and 19, 1960)
117° Las Vegas, Nevada: all-time heat record (tied with July 19, 2005 and July 24, 1942)

All-time June monthly records were set or tied at:
104° Elko, Nevada (previous 104° June 24, 1981)
103° Tonopah, Nevada (previous 102° on two occasions), this was also just 1° short of their all-time record of 104° set on July 18, 1960).
106° Winnemucca, Nevada (previous 106° on June 24, 1988)

July 1, 2013
127° Death Valley, California
110° Boise, Idaho: tied for 2nd hottest temperature on record

Deadly Yarnell, Arizona fire continues to burn out-of-control
The deadly Yarnell Hills, Arizona wildfire that claimed the lives of nineteen firefighters of the Prescott-based Granite Mountain Hotshots continues to burn out of control near Yarnell, a small town about 85 miles northwest of Phoenix. The fire has burned 8,400 acres (13 square miles) and was 0% contained on Tuesday morning. Temperatures in the upper 90s are expected Tuesday afternoon near Yarnell. These temperatures are about five degrees cooler than during Sunday's deadly blaze. The intense ridge of high pressure responsible for the intense heat will continue to weaken during the week, and high temperatures will be in the low 90s by the end of the week.


Figure 2. The Yarnell Hill Fire burns through the town of Yarnell, Ariz. on Sunday, June 30, 2013. The fire started Friday from a lightning strike and killed nineteen firefighters on Sunday. (AP Photo/The Arizona Republic, Tom Story)

Radar imagery from Sunday showed numerous dry thunderstorms over the Yarnell area, and it is likely that the outflow from one of these thunderstorms caused a sharp wind shift and strong wind gusts that caused extreme fire behavior that overran the firefighters' escape route. According to The Arizona Republic, the firefighters were trapped between two ridges when the winds suddenly reversed. A fire-monitoring station four miles from the fire measured nearly record combustion levels for the fuel on the ground, in the 97th percentile since the station was installed in 1985. The station measured southwest winds gusting to 15 to 25 mph at 4:01 PM. One hour later, ten minutes after the firefighters had deployed their fire shelters, the wind had reversed direction to northeast, and was gusting at 30 to 47 mph. The topography could have channeled these wind gusts to even higher speeds where the firefighters were. "Guys on the ground told me the fire behavior was as extreme as anything they’d ever seen,” said Dugger Hughes of the Southwest Coordination Center, an interagency organization in New Mexico that coordinates state and federal firefighting resources. The flames were 40 feet high and moved at an average speed of 1/2 mph. According to WWF blogger Nick Sundt, who is a former "smokejumper", dry thunderstorms causing sudden wind gusts and wind shifts is a common scenario with such large scale firefighter fatality incidents: for example, in the 1949 Mann Gulch fire in Montana (thirteen firefighters killed), and in the 1994 Storm King Mountain or South Canyon Fire in Colorado (fourteen firefighters killed.) Nick commented in an email to me: "It happened once to me in Idaho late one afternoon (in 1981, I think) when gusts from a building thunderstorm caused a fire to blow up in a drainage I was in with other smokejumpers.  We popped our fire shelters but the winds shifted late in the night and the fire stopped short of us. We high-tailed it out of there early in the morning before the winds picked up and incinerated everything we left behind (parachutes, jump gear, etc)." Wunderblogger Lee Grenci analyzes the 3-dimensional characteristics of the atmosphere over Arizona over the weekend in his latest post. He shows how conditions were ideal on Sunday for spawning dry thunderstorms capable of bringing erratic, gusty winds to the fire region. Here is the "Spot Forecast" that the Granite Mountain Hotshots had to work with on Sunday:

FNUS75 KFGZ 301655
FWSFGZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR YARNELL HILL...ARIZONA STATE FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SUN JUN 30 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0939 MST ON JUNE 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT SPELL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....100 TO 103.
MIN HUMIDITY........11 TO 15 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....73 TO 76.
MAX HUMIDITY........35 TO 40 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....98 TO 102.
MIN HUMIDITY........13 TO 17 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

$$
FORECASTER...DB
REQUESTED BY...BYRON R KMIBALL
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
TAG 20130630.YARNE.01/FGZ

The shocking and sad deaths of the nineteen brave men who died on Sunday was the largest loss of life among wildfire firefighters since 1933 Griffith Park, California fire in the U.S. (25 killed.) Fighting wildfires is dangerous work, and 1,043 firefighters died between 1910 - 2012 fighting wildfires in the U.S., according to statistics from the National Interagency Fire Center. Firefighter deaths have been on the rise in recent decades. Over the past ten years, 2004 - 2013, there have been an average of sixteen of these deaths per year, compared to eleven deaths per year during the 1970s and 1980s.

Links
Experts See New Normal as a Hotter, Drier West Faces More Huge Fires New York Times, July 1, 2013
The Climate Context Behind the Deadly Arizona Wildfires Climate Central, July 1, 2013

The tropical Atlantic is quiet
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable forecast models predict tropical cyclone development through Sunday. There is a large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system over the middle of the North Atlantic that will move to the southwest during the week, and this low is expected to arrive in the Bahamas by Sunday and bring rainy conditions. Although the models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation and develop tropical characteristics, it may be worth watching for development late this week.

Jeff Masters

Scorching Hot! (Fonda)
My gauge is almost running out of numbers.
Scorching Hot!
First monsoon storm (avidsleeper)
Somehow managed to get a daytime lightning shot from my living room window. Exposure time was 1/8 of a second. Our first real storm of the season!
First monsoon storm

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1273. TORMENTOSO83
9:06 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Intense rainfall Link
Member Since: July 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 293
1272. dabirds
7:52 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1205. Patrap:
I joined 8 years ago today, to get xtra Radar Frames as Cindy 05 was forming off the Yucatan.

Member Since: July 3, 2005
And Jim Morrison passed 34 yrs before that in Paris. 7/3/71

Beautiful day in C IL, 80 w/ 59 dew pt, 30", 3-10 W to WSW winds. Ended up w/ .3" yesterday.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1062
1271. swampdawg
5:00 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1228. GeorgiaStormz:



Mine is fairly steady.

Guess you are finally getting your rain?
Hope your grass looks better.

Waycross, GA......barometer 30.13 and falling...
Member Since: July 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 73
1270. OrchidGrower
4:42 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1212. taco2me61:

Well Said and good to see you again....

Taco :o)


Thanks, Taco2 --- you have WU mail :-)
Member Since: September 24, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 451
1269. GeorgiaStormz
4:17 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN COWETA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
HEARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
TROUP COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA


* AT 1155 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED FLASH FLOODING FROM STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
NEAR CORINTH..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED
3.5 TO 4.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING.


ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM EDT.

_______________________________________

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HARALSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 1201 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN THAT CONTINUES TO OCCUR FROM
TALLAPOOSA TO BUCHANAN TO EUBANK LAKE. AREAS IN THE WARNING HAVE
RECEIVED 3.5-5.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE 9 AM EDT...AND WITH
ADDITIONAL 1-1.5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FLASH
FLOODING RISK REMAINS HIGH.


ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA THROUGH 6 PM EDT.



pretty much sums up today here.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9897
1268. Chicklit
4:15 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1252. RitaEvac:
Offshore platforms in GOM being briefed for deteriorating conditions in the coming days

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 12034
1267. Patrap
4:13 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
thanx a lot jazzy!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 144498
1266. Matt74
4:13 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1252. RitaEvac:
Offshore platforms in GOM being briefed for deteriorating conditions in the coming days
I'm on the upper Texas coast and our locals really haven't mentioned it. Just said 40-50% chance of rain this weekend. But then again they're always pretty conservative.
Member Since: June 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 338
1265. Dakster
4:13 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Who were the first members to join? I see dodabear is in 2001.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 12928
1264. jazzygal
4:12 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Happy 8TH Anniversary Pat. You may even get a storm to track! Thanks for all your help and knowledge throughout the past years. I''m not always in NOLA but I know I can always count on your post if a storm is treating the area. You picked a great time to Join, 2005!
Member Since: June 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 242
1263. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:11 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1262. druseljic
4:11 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Thanks for the answer Patrap.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 658
1261. taco2me61
4:11 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1258. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


seems a lot of us joined in the month of july popular month

I would say July is "Very Popular" :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3653
1260. AtHomeInTX
4:11 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Don't look Aislinn. ;) So far should just bring rain. Hopefully.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
1259. RitaEvac
4:09 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
I'm supposed to be going to Dallas this Friday and Saturday, looks like I'll be missing the action. Hopefully I get rain while I'm away, or I might be coming home Sunday to a threat in the Gulf, remains to be seen.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 10644
1258. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:09 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1254. Slamguitar:


Darn, I forgot I joined 2 years ago yesterday. You just reminded me. Happy WU Anniversary Pat!


seems a lot of us joined in the month of july popular month

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 200 Comments: 65932
1257. allancalderini
4:09 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1254. Slamguitar:


Darn, I forgot I joined 2 years ago yesterday. You just reminded me. Happy WU Anniversary Pat!
Quoting 1255. Patrap:
Ty very much slam,
Happy anniversary both of you and hope you can celebrate more to come with us.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4807
1256. Patrap
4:09 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 144498
1255. Patrap
4:07 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Ty very much slam,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 144498
1254. Slamguitar
4:04 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1231. indianrivguy:
Happy Anniversary Pat, it's been a pleasure chatting with you for the nearly 7 years I've been around. Cheers!


Darn, I forgot I joined 2 years ago yesterday. You just reminded me. Happy WU Anniversary Pat!
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1189
1253. allancalderini
4:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1102. washingtonian115:
Models seeing two weak storms.One maybe a depression and the other a actual storm.I'm rooting on Dorian being a beautiful Cape Verde storm.
Not the only one my heart would broke if it is a pathethic storm.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4807
1252. RitaEvac
4:01 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Offshore platforms in GOM being briefed for deteriorating conditions in the coming days
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 10644
1251. weathermanwannabe
4:01 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Gonna settle the current debate right now; lets call this thing the "no-name" tropical system of July 2013.... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14238
1250. Patrap
4:01 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1247. druseljic:


Does that normally lead to cyclogenesis?


Not always, buts its a sign something is trying to as conditions slowly improve aloft and in the Se and Central GOM overall.

Gulf Of Mexico - Visible Loop

click image for Loop

ZOOM is active

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 144498
1249. Patrap
3:59 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements

My NOAA Weather Alert Radios went off in Tandem during the night as some Boomers came in from the Blob..

Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

TORNADO WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 401 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAS VEGAS NV - KVEF 159 AM PDT WED JUL 3 2013
TORNADO WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 254 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 144498
1248. alexhurricane1991
3:59 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1233. CybrTeddy:


Making a forecast while stating he is uncertain about the probabilities of being correct is not wishcasting. And while we're at it, there is model support to suggest something may attempt to spin-up as it approaches the US Gulf Coast. Why else would the NHC bother to mention this sloppy mess in the GOMEX?


Either way, there's plenty of rain to go around in the next few days across much of the southern USA.
Your right i was too quick to pull the wishcasting card
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
1247. druseljic
3:58 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1237. Patrap:
Always a spookie sight to see curved Banding in the Gulf Se of one, even in early July.



Does that normally lead to cyclogenesis?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 658
1246. 62901IL
3:58 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1245. PanhandleChuck:
Think about it, 9 days ago --+-- the models saw something to the very thing that is happening. Not saying a hurricane but some sort of tropical disturbance ...... Pretty impressive if you ask me.

Impressive, huh?
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 3855
1245. PanhandleChuck
3:57 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Think about it, 9 days ago --+-- the models saw something to the very thing that is happening. Not saying a hurricane but some sort of tropical disturbance ...... Pretty impressive if you ask me.
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1418
1244. 62901IL
3:57 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
We seem to be getting curved banding.
**gulp**
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 3855
1243. sar2401
3:56 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Mine is fairly steady.

Guess you are finally getting your rain?
Hope your grass looks better.

Hmmm...wonder why mine is rising so fast? It's pretty accurate, so I'm confident it's not something weird going on with the sensor. Yes, indeed, finally getting real rain instead of storms that miss by a mile. Looks worse on radar than it is so far. .27" total since earlier this morning, and a rain rate of only .11" per hour. The high should push most of this fetch further west today, so GA should get a chance to dry out some.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 25746
1242. Patrap
3:56 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
..I think I'm paranoid, and complicated'..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 144498
1241. indianrivguy
3:55 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1236. Dodabear:
Oh yeah, I forgot you are one of the newbies.



hahahaha, cracked me up, well done.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2938
1240. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:55 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1231. indianrivguy:
Happy Anniversary Pat, it's been a pleasure chatting with you for the nearly 7 years I've been around. Cheers!
you been here as long as I have be 7 years myself on the 15th

not a bad place I've seen other site's that are so inmature and sit around all day and talk smack about others and insult peeps and defame them but there just nobodies anyway
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 200 Comments: 65932
1239. 62901IL
3:54 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1237. Patrap:
Always a spookie sight to see curved Banding in the Gulf Se of one, even in early July.


Uhoh.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 3855
1238. Dakster
3:54 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1235. taco2me61:

Now Pat I thought you were happy with a Fresca (Spelling Sorry)

Taco :o)


A Fresca in the rain...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 12928
1237. Patrap
3:54 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Always a spookie sight to see curved Banding in the Gulf Se of one, even in early July.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 144498
1236. Dodabear
3:53 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Oh yeah, I forgot you are one of the newbies.

Quoting 1205. Patrap:
I joined 8 years ago today, to get xtra Radar Frames as Cindy 05 was forming off the Yucatan.

Member Since: July 3, 2005
Member Since: July 28, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 2279
1235. taco2me61
3:51 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1230. Patrap:
..I'm only Happy when it Rains..


Now Pat I thought you were happy with a Fresca (Spelling Sorry)

Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3653
1234. Patrap
3:50 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
1231. indianrivguy

Thanks IRG, been a pleasure as well, esp with all your local knowledge over dere.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 144498
1233. CybrTeddy
3:49 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1201. alexhurricane1991:
That is wishcasting i know your excited about this hurricane season being active but not every blob is going to become a tropical system dont worry you will get your storms soon.


Making a forecast while stating he is uncertain about the probabilities of being correct is not wishcasting. And while we're at it, there is model support to suggest something may attempt to spin-up as it approaches the US Gulf Coast. Why else would the NHC bother to mention this sloppy mess in the GOMEX?


Either way, there's plenty of rain to go around in the next few days across much of the southern USA.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 26102
1232. sar2401
3:48 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm off to be folks. Stay well, Stay safe.

Goodnight.

P.S Congrats Pat on 8yrs on WU. It'll be 6yrs for me on September 30. I wonder if we'll be tracking a hurricane then.

GN, Aussie. I have a feeling we'll be tracking something on September 30, even if it's another blob. Looks like that kind of season. I joined sometime in 2004. I'll have to look to see when. It was Ivan that got me going. Only hurricane that made it into central AL as a hurricane.

EDIT: I see it's October 2, 2004. Good heavens, almost 9 years. I have to get a life sometime before I die. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 25746
1231. indianrivguy
3:48 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Happy Anniversary Pat, it's been a pleasure chatting with you for the nearly 7 years I've been around. Cheers!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2938
1230. Patrap
3:47 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
..I'm only Happy when it Rains..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 456 Comments: 144498
1229. canehater1
3:46 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Jet is forecast to move poleward back to its "normal"
location..will be interesting to see if mid-level
vortices in BOC and Gulf/W. Carib are able to develop any surface circulation...Not likely, but then neither was Claudette.....
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1340
1228. GeorgiaStormz
3:46 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting 1223. sar2401:

Georgia, what is your barometer doing? Mine is rising like a rocket - up from 29.91 to 30.03 in just two hours. The Bermuda High must be nosing in pretty effectively. The weather icon on my PWS is all confused. It shows sunny skies but, since it's actually raining, it also shows a tiny cloud over in the corner. I guess the software knows how to do a CYA also. :-)



Mine is fairly steady.

Guess you are finally getting your rain?
Hope your grass looks better.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9897
1227. weathermanwannabe
3:44 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
If you look closely at the current hi-res visible loop of the Gulf, you can see the low right on the Coast of LA.....Problem is that all parts East to North Florida are on the dirty side with heavier showers continuing to fire off-shore.

Big flooding event for Southern AL/GA/Northern Florida on tap over the next 48 hours.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14238
1226. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:44 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Goodnight Aussie
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 10921
1225. 62901IL
3:44 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
I gotta go. Be back at 2.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 3855
1224. barbamz
3:43 PM GMT on July 03, 2013

200mb Streamlines & Isotachs


Convective Available Potential Energy & Precipitable Water

Sure a lot of water for the East available! Source to enlarge
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 11051
1223. sar2401
3:43 PM GMT on July 03, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Very funny storms but it's nothing more than a little spin yet..too early for svr wx now.



watch for these spinups late tonight into tomorrow...may see 1 or so in the SE.




Georgia, what is your barometer doing? Mine is rising like a rocket - up from 29.91 to 30.03 in just two hours. The Bermuda High must be nosing in pretty effectively. The weather icon on my PWS is all confused. It shows sunny skies but, since it's actually raining, it also shows a tiny cloud over in the corner. I guess the software knows how to do a CYA also. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 25746

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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