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Caribbean Disturbance Little Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 AM GMT on June 16, 2013

A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the Southwest Caribbean near the coast of Nicaragua in association with a tropical wave that is moving slowly west northwest towards Nicaragua and Honduras. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots, which will keep any development slow. The high shear is due to the presence of the subtropical jet stream, which is expected to push northwards over the next few days. This may allow wind shear to fall to the moderate range on Monday, when the wave will be in the Northwest Caribbean, between Honduras and Belize. NHC is giving the disturbance only a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday, but these odds may increase on Monday when the wave has crossed into the Northwest Caribbean--if the wind shear drops. The wave will cross over the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday and may emerge into the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche as early as Wednesday. At that point, the models continue to predict a slow west-northwest motion, bringing the wave ashore into Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico late in the week. Wind shear is expected to remain high during the entire period, keeping any development slow. The Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, so the disturbance's odds of formation are the greatest on Wednesday through Friday, after it crosses the Yucatan. None of the models develop the disturbance, and there is no indication that this system will affect the U.S., as a strong ridge of high pressure over the U.S. during the coming week should keep the tropical wave trapped in the southern Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of the tropical disturbance in the Southwest Caribbean on Saturday, June 15, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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1430. Fernan
2:12 AM GMT on June 19, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1429. JNTenne
3:12 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
GOES WV Loop


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1428. hydrus
2:54 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning to you too.

Actually a lawyer by profession but have been fascinated by tropical systems from childhood. I guess after you have seen hundreds of them you become an armchair meteorologist :-).

I learned a lot from watching some of the really great forecasters in the early days of the Weather Channel before the internet existed. Guys like John Hope didn't just give you the forecast for a system, he explained why. Two of his more well known guides were:

1. If you have a developing system in the NW Caribbean, look for a West wind in Puerto Cabezas to determine if a closed low is or has developed.

2. A wave that has not developed before entering the Eastern Caribbean is unlikely to develop before reaching the Western Caribbean.

Number 2 in particular has withstood the test of time over and over again.
I too remember those days. I became interested in weather after Hurricane Belle in 76. It did a considerable amount of damage in N.J where my Grandparents live on the coast, which I was there to witness as it happened. I have read up on Grady Norton , Gordon Dunn , John Hope and Robert Simpson ( who is 100 years old now ) are just some of the extraordinary tropical Mets that have a uncanny, but very talented gift for forecasting tropical cyclones.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1427. Skyepony (Mod)
2:47 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting barbamz:


Pic of the hail balls from this storm.


That's big hail! Bigger than the 3cm that article said..though it sounds on going.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1426. Skyepony (Mod)
2:46 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Now that season is here.. & this has gone from blob watching to an invest~ the blog is beginning to tighten up.. There is site mail (gray bar up top on the right) for personal discussions, you can start your own blog to hurricane party with your Wunderfriends..but the off topic isn't going to be entertained so much here forward to the end of event.. Our friends in the Caribbean are here for info now.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1425. eddiedollar
2:44 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
I get worried here in Roatan when a storm or hurricane is on the way because the residents here make absolutely no preparations for it. This is quite different to my home island of Barbados. Where from June 1 its on the TV, newspapers, schools etc.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1424. barbamz
2:43 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting Skyepony:
Hailstorm in France


Pic of the hail balls from this storm.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1423. kmanislander
2:42 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting RTSplayer:



If you're a lawyer by profession, then I have a question.

Is an classified ad in a newspaper a legally binding contract?

My position is "no" because it's still subject to negotiation.

Judge Judy ruled that an ad in a newspaper was legally binding, and held a plaintiff to the ad, verbatim, even though it was clear the plaintiff did not agree to those terms in the actual "transaction" that took place.

My reasoning was using a used car example.

Let's say the ad offers the car for $4000, but when the customer gets there, the seller decides he really needs $4500. Now let's say the buyer goes for it anyway. He offers to pay $3500 up front, and the other $1000 over the next 6 months. However, the buyer never makes another payment.

If the original owner goes to court, can they sue for only $500, or for the full $1000?

What do you say?
Quoting RTSplayer:



If you're a lawyer by profession, then I have a question.

Is an classified ad in a newspaper a legally binding contract?

My position is "no" because it's still subject to negotiation.

Judge Judy ruled that an ad in a newspaper was legally binding, and held a plaintiff to the ad, verbatim, even though it was clear the plaintiff did not agree to those terms in the actual "transaction" that took place.

My reasoning was using a used car example.

Let's say the ad offers the car for $4000, but when the customer gets there, the seller decides he really needs $4500. Now let's say the buyer goes for it anyway. He offers to pay $3500 up front, and the other $1000 over the next 6 months. However, the buyer never makes another payment.

If the original owner goes to court, can they sue for only $500, or for the full $1000?

What do you say?



LOL. I am qualified in England, not the US so cannot comment on a US law question. I do know what the position would be in the UK and here in Cayman but I hope you will forgive me for not expressing a view on an internet forum.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1422. VR46L
2:41 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting 62901IL:

I would LOVE to see a tropical system hit Texas.


You know a weak storm following the track predicted by the LBAR would be no bad thing IMO..

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1421. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:41 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1420. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:40 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting kmanislander:


The low level convergence map aligns with the 925 mb vorticity signature which I posted a short time ago and both place the low center in the Gulf of Honduras close to Belize. I do see the spin that is suggestive of a new center but that may just be the misalignment of the low and mid level centers.

We will know soon enough if a new center is forming but obs other than satellite suggest otherwise.


It's worth noting that the maps from UW-CIMSS have gridding issues and are often off by 50 to 100 miles.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1419. NEFLWATCHING
2:39 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting hydrus:
Alright thats it..I had a double whey protein isolate shake ( vanilla ) with a heaping tablespoon of moringa olifeira. and two peanut butter sandwiches on honey wheat bread, glass O.J....What I really wanted was scrambled eggs with cheese, pancakes loaded with butter and real maple syrup and hash browns......I eat the other stuff because I work out and am middle aged..:)...forgive my lil rant..Okay guys, enough. I am at ER with sick husband. No breakfast for us!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1418. kmanislander
2:39 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
850 mb also deep into the GOH

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1417. Skyepony (Mod)
2:38 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Hailstorm in France on Monday, 17 June, 2013 at 10:11 (10:11 AM) UTC.
Description
Paris and the Ile-de-France is under orange weather alert today as Meteo France warned that violent thunder and hail storms would batter the area. The storm is due to pass by 11.00 but Meteo France says that winds could reach 80kph and be extremely dangerous and that hailstones could reach as big as 3cm. Such hailstones could damage cars and light buildings, such as caravans and outhouses, and the weather agency also warned of a serious risk of flooding in cellars and low-lying areas. Two storms have already hit Tours this morning, with many reports of damage and pompiers involved in more than 200 incidents. Vineyard owners have reported that the hail had been very violent and had stripped leaves off their vines “as if with secateurs” one said on RTL. However, very hot weather is also on the way, with Grenoble likely to hit 36C this afternoon. Elsewhere, forecasters said that the lowest temperature in France was likely to be 18C in Brittany with 30C+ common across many parts of the country.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1416. RTSplayer
2:37 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning to you too.

Actually a lawyer by profession but have been fascinated by tropical systems from childhood. I guess after you have seen hundreds of them you become an armchair meteorologist :-).

I learned a lot from watching some of the really great forecasters in the early days of the Weather Channel before the internet existed. Guys like John Hope didn't just give you the forecast for a system, he explained why. Two of his more well known guides were:

1. If you have a developing system in the NW Caribbean, look for a West wind in Puerto Cabezas to determine if a closed low is or has developed.

2. A wave that has not developed before entering the Eastern Caribbean is unlikely to develop before reaching the Western Caribbean.

Number 2 in particular has withstood the test of time over and over again.



If you're a lawyer by profession, then I have a question.

Is an classified ad in a newspaper a legally binding contract?

My position is "no" because it's still subject to negotiation.

Judge Judy ruled that an ad in a newspaper was legally binding, and held a plaintiff to the ad, verbatim, even though it was clear the plaintiff did not agree to those terms in the actual "transaction" that took place.

My reasoning was using a used car example.

Let's say the ad offers the car for $4000, but when the customer gets there, the seller decides he really needs $4500. Now let's say the buyer goes for it anyway. He offers to pay $3500 up front, and the other $1000 over the next 6 months. However, the buyer never makes another payment.

If the original owner goes to court, can they sue for only $500, or for the full $1000?

What do you say?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1415. weatherh98
2:37 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting SLU:
The strong trades of late have busted a huge gaping hole in the SSTs north of PR.




Yea it's been below average up there all year, that's not a bad thing for tropical storms especially as the MDR warms up more.

Focus's most of the storms into the more favorable tropical atlantic
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1414. Skyepony (Mod)
2:36 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Landslide in New Zealand on Monday, 17 June, 2013 at 03:21 (03:21 AM) UTC.
Description
More than 18 hours of heavy rain triggered a large landslide on the South Island of New Zealand on Sunday afternoon, destroying a house and killing one person inside, police said. Two other houses nearby were evacuated as a precaution. The incident occurred at around 1:15 p.m. local time on Sunday when a landslide, covering an area about 200 meters (218 yards) long, hit near a road near Kaiteriteri, a coastal town on the South Island of New Zealand. It happened after more than 18 hours of heavy rainfall in the region.Senior Sergeant Stu Koefoed of Nelson Police said first responders found a badly damaged house when they arrived at the scene. "One wall and the roof was all that remained of the house and neighbors were attempting to find the woman, who was the sole occupant of the house," he said. Koefoed said the body of the victim, who was identified as 63-year-old Jude Hivon, was discovered partially submerged in the mud.As a precaution, police and search-and-rescue staff evacuated two neighboring properties after the landslide, which came down behind the house that was destroyed and struck the rear of the property. "Local Civil Defence have activated and are managing road closures and monitoring river levels," Koefoed added.


Quoting SLU:
The strong trades of late have busted a huge gaping hole in the SSTs north of PR.



Yeah they have..That front was across there the last few days. That weak blob that was there up-welled a bit there yesterday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1413. eddiedollar
2:36 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Still overcast here in Roatan, wind about 20-25mph with a few higher gusts. Sun popped out for a few mins then gone back in again.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1412. kmanislander
2:35 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Morning all.

First glance at the satellite loops suggest a new low-level center is forming with 93L near 85.6W 16.8N. Thoughts?



The low level convergence map aligns with the 925 mb vorticity signature which I posted a short time ago and both place the low center in the Gulf of Honduras close to Belize. I do see the spin that is suggestive of a new center but that may just be the misalignment of the low and mid level centers.

We will know soon enough if a new center is forming but obs other than satellite suggest otherwise.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1411. 62901IL
2:35 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

Stick ya head out the window and have a look. That's the best way to tell.

I meant at your place.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1410. AussieStorm
2:35 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1m
93L staying over land w/ its impressive circulation likely spared Central Amer from a strong hurricane.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1408. AussieStorm
2:35 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting 62901IL:

Hey you guys! What's the weather like?

Stick ya head out the window and have a look. That's the best way to tell.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1407. weatherh98
2:34 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting FutureWx6221:


Heads up TA, this is a bit of an old loop (latest image 6:15 last night)

*edit* I wasn't fast enough in pointing it out, it's already fixed.

And thanks 1395, but see 1388



Ah I'm sorry didn't see that
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1406. VR46L
2:34 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Coordinates from 2 hours ago source Tropical Atlantic

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Monday, Jun. 17, 2013 12:00 Z

Location at the time:
126 statue miles (203 km) to the SE (145°) from Belize City, Belize.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
25 knots (~29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)

Pressure:
1008 mb (29.77 inHg | 1008 hPa)

Coordinates:
16.0N 87.1W
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1405. 62901IL
2:33 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting canehater1:


Hope the ridge holds strong and builds in to the west...

I would LOVE to see a tropical system hit Texas.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1404. canehater1
2:33 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting kmanislander:
The steering for the wave is well established.



Hope the ridge holds strong and builds in to the west...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1403. AussieStorm
2:33 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
000
SXAK77 PAJK 171430
RERAJK

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
630 AM AKDT MON JUN 17 2013

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY...

LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD YEAR SET
HAINES AIRPORT 86 80 2002
*HAINES #2 86 75 2002
*HAINES CUSTOMS 83 80 2002
*SKAGWAY CUSTOMS 84 83 2002
*GUSTAVUS 85 67 2007
*HOONAH 83 68 1973
*ELFIN COVE 78 62 2006
*PELICAN 77 66 2004
*PORT ALEXANDER 80 72 1950
JUNEAU AIRPORT 85 82 1948
*JUNEAU, NWS OFFICE 81 73 2002
*JUNEAU, LENA POINT 83 73 2002
*JUNEAU, OUTER POINT 80 70 2002
*SNETTISHAM 84 76 2002
*KLAWOCK AIRPORT 87 75 2005
*CRAIG 74 66 1950
KETCHIKAN AIRPORT 85 TIED 85 1950
*KETCHIKAN 13N 82 62 2009
ANNETTE, NWS OFFICE 85 TIED 85 1969
YAKUTAT AIRPORT 81 70 1996/1966

* RECORD REPORTS FOR THESE STATIONS MAY NOT BE AS MEANINGFUL AS
THOSE FOR STATIONS WITH 30-YEAR DECADAL NORMALS (1981-2010).

KV JUN 13
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1402. SLU
2:33 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
The strong trades of late have busted a huge gaping hole in the SSTs north of PR.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1401. weatherh98
2:32 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Morning all.

First glance at the satellite loops suggest a new low-level center is forming with 93L near 85.6W 16.8N. Thoughts?




Yup. First one looks much weaker now
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1400. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:31 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting FutureWx6221:


Heads up TA, this is a bit of an old loop (latest image 6:15 last night)

The latest image in the loop is 13:45 UTC, which is 9:45 am EDT.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1399. SLU
2:31 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1398. 62901IL
2:30 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Blog is faster this morning.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1397. 62901IL
2:29 PM GMT on June 17, 2013

Hey you guys! What's the weather like?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1396. FutureWx6221
2:29 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Morning all.

First glance at the satellite loops suggest a new low-level center is forming with 93L near 85.6W 16.8N. Thoughts?



Heads up TA, this is a bit of an old loop (latest image 6:15 last night)

*edit* I wasn't fast enough in pointing it out, it's already fixed.

And thanks 1395, but see 1388
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1395. weatherh98
2:29 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting FutureWx6221:


The problem is that the recon is not scheduled to arrive at the storm until roughly 2000z (if I'm reading the flight plan correctly) which translates to 2400 EDT (if I'm reading the conversion chart correctly, but I've seen some conflicting info on what Zulu time represents). By midnight eastern, in another 14 whole hours, it is likely that 93L is near or over land.

Unless the new center does form underneath the MLC, it may be too late for recon to provide any useful information, so to me, it seems there is a fairly decent chance recon is cancelled.

It would have been nice if yesterday, they had flown out to 93L and found some sort of circulation, which would have initiated regular flights. Then we would have a plane inbound, outbound, or in the storm as we speak which could tell us about any possible center reformation.

As to any renumber, although I would say there is a fairly high chance that 93L is either a TD or TS by the time it reaches Belize, the NHC is clearly playing this conservatively, as evidenced by their outlandishly low TWO percentages. Unless we get a HH plane into the storm, I think the chance of getting TD2 today is very low, around 10%. However, if the NHC does observe some satellite evidence that the center has reformed to the east and north underneath the mid-level turning, we should get a flight, since this relocation would buy 93L several hours over water. If this scenario plays out, I would say there is about a 70% that it gets declared.

Also, as a point of vocabulary, I believe you mean "credence" as opposed to "cadence." Just a helpful tip :)


Okay 2000Z is 1600z edt

4 hours behind not ahead

So recon would be there about 4pm edt
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1394. kmanislander
2:27 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Does the quote tab show up? If it does click it and scroll to the bottom of the page and you should see the "blockquote" in the comment section.


Great, got it. I guess with Chrome it doesn't open the box automatically.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1393. GeorgiaStormz
2:27 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting hydrus:
Alright thats it..I had a double whey protein isolate shake ( vanilla ) with a heaping tablespoon of moringa olifeira. and two peanut butter sandwiches on honey wheat bread, glass O.J....What I really wanted was scrambled eggs with cheese, pancakes loaded with butter and real maple syrup and hash browns......I eat the other stuff because I work out and am middle aged..:)...forgive my lil rant..


I almost had a protein shake.... and I dont like peanut butter.

That breakfast you wanted is the best however, especially the real maple syrup.. :)

The only breakfast food I ever seem to eat for breakfast is cereal....other than that I find myself eating leftovers, or lunch/dinner foods.

I eat what I eat because I work out and am young...
I hear you can't eat like that forever :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1392. 62901IL
2:27 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Morning all.

First glance at the satellite loops suggest a new low-level center is forming with 93L near 85.6W 16.8N. Thoughts?


The centre is over water now
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1391. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:26 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Morning all.

First glance at the satellite loops suggest a new low-level center is forming with 93L near 85.6W 16.8N. Thoughts?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1390. 62901IL
2:26 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
You'll love this.
Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1389. kmanislander
2:26 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Does the quote tab show up? If it does click it and scroll to the bottom of the page and you should see the "blockquote" in the comment section.


The tab is there. Will do as you suggest. Thanks
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1388. FutureWx6221
2:25 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
With regards to my earlier comment (1378), I was reading the chart incorrectly, the flight should arrive around 4:00 eastern, which kinda renders my point about flight cancellation moot.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1387. Skyepony (Mod)
2:25 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Recon take off is 1700Z = 1300edt = 1:00pm edt.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1386. eddiedollar
2:25 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting allancalderini:
I believe you wrote you were from Roatan right? that means we live pretty close I live in La Ceiba.
Yes living in Roatan for the past 3 years.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1385. kmanislander
2:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
The steering for the wave is well established.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1384. GTcooliebai
2:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting kmanislander:
I have a question I would appreciate some help with. When I use Chrome and click on the quote button nothing happens. This has forced me to use IE to blog.

Is there a setting or something that I need to change ?

TIA
Does the quote tab show up? If it does click it and scroll to the bottom of the page and you should see the "blockquote" in the comment section.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1383. 62901IL
2:24 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Can anyone tell me if I was quoted last night? If so, can you send me the link to the comment that I was quoted on?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1382. kmanislander
2:22 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
I have a question I would appreciate some help with. When I use Chrome and click on the quote button nothing happens. This has forced me to use IE to blog.

Is there a setting or something that I need to change ?

TIA
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1381. stormchaser19
2:20 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
Quoting Grothar:
It's a bust.

lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1380. Grothar
2:18 PM GMT on June 17, 2013
It's a bust.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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