April 2013: Earth's 13th warmest April; 92E a threat to Mexico and Guatemala

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on May 27, 2013

April 2013 was the globe's 13th warmest April since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA also rated it the 13th warmest April on record. The year-to-date period of January - April has been the 8th warmest such period on record. April 2013 global land temperatures were the 17th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record. April 2013 was the 338th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in April 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 13th or 11th warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during April 2013 was the 9th largest in the 47-year period of record, and the first above-average April snow cover since 2003. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of April 2013 in his April 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary. He notes that The U.K. had its coldest April since 1989, and a storm felled the Pontfadog Oak, said by some to be Britain’s oldest tree. The historic tree dated back to at least 802 A.D., and was said to have served as a rallying point for a Welsh prince’s army that defeated England’s King Henry II in 1157 A.D.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2013, the 13th warmest April for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Temperatures were much warmer than average across much of Mexico, the coastal regions of South America, most of Argentina, southern Europe, parts of coastal Africa, far eastern Europe, and western Australia. Record warm temperatures were observed across the southern tip of South America, far western Brazil, the southern Philippines, and some locales in far eastern Russia. It was much cooler than average across a swath of central North America, central Paraguay, part of northwestern Canada, and much of Alaska, where the southeastern portion of Alaska had record cold April temperatures. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

One billion-dollar disaster in April: floods in Buenos Aires, Argentina
Torrential rainfall fell across parts of Argentina’s city and province of Buenos Aires between the 2nd and 4th, triggering flash flooding that killed at least 70 and did $1.3 billion in damage, making it the deadliest and most damaging weather disaster world-wide in April. In the city of Buenos Aires, seven hours of heavy rains flooded subways and submerged low-lying neighborhoods. Hardest-hit was the La Plata region, where 400 millimeters (15.74 inches) of rain fell in just two hours. The total was more than the city had ever recorded during an entire month of April. Argentina’s largest refinery, Ensenada, also sustained damage from the floods, plus a fire.

The Argentinian flood in April brought the 2013 tally of billion-dollar weather disasters to six, according to the April 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker AON Benfield. The six billion-dollar weather disasters through April 2013:

1) Drought in Central and Eastern China, 1/1 - 4/30, $4.2 billion
2) Flooding in Indonesia, 1/20 - 1/27, $3.31 billion
3) Flooding in Australia, 1/21 - 1/30, $2.5 billion
4) Winter weather in Europe, 3/12 - 3/31, $1.8 billion
5) Flooding in Argentina, 4/2 - 4/4, $1.3 billion
6) Severe weather in the Midwest U.S., 3/18 - 3/20, $1 billion

Preliminary damage estimates of $2 billion from the May 20, 2013 tornado in Moore, Oklahoma tornado will likely put that disaster on the list for May.


Figure 2. Severe flooding in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on April, 3, 2013 submerged half the city in waters up to 2 meters (6.6') deep. Image credit: focolare.org.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 13th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during April 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through summer. The large majority of the El Niño models predict neutral conditions will last through the fall of 2013. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C below average as of May 20, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.

Arctic sea ice falls to 7th lowest April extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during April reached its seventh lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the 12th consecutive April and 143rd consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. The last ten years (2004 to 2013) have seen seven of the ten lowest April extents in the satellite record.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Invest 92E.

Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance bringing heavy rains to Mexico and Guatemala
Invest 92E in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 100 miles southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border, will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to coastal Guatemala and Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec over the next three days. Radar out of El Mozotal, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along the Mexico/Guatemala border, and satellite loops show an impressive and expanding area of heavy thunderstorms associated with 92E, with some spiral bands beginning to develop on the storm's south side. In their 5 am PDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92E a 60% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 80%. The 0Z Monday runs of the GFS and ECMWF both predict that 92E could develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect 92E will be a tropical depression or tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec.

In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 1 over the majority of the regions we typically see May tropical cyclone development--the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. The GFS and ECMWF models are showing a decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean after June 1, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.)


Figure 4. Severe weather outlook for Monday, May 28, calls for a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather over portions of Kansas and Nebraska. You can follow this week's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest begins today
The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period Monday though Wednesday in the Midwest, with a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather today (Monday) over portions of Northern Kansas and Southern Nebraska. The severe weather outbreak will continue on Tuesday and Wednesday, though SPC is only highlighting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather on those days at present.

Have a great Memorial Day, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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110. wxmod
Quoting Luisport:
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather5 min
Summit Camp, Greenland reported a low temp. today of -27 degrees F.


That isn't keeping the arctic ice pack from disintegrating.

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12z GFS ensembles at 264 hours:



0z CMC ensembles at 270 hours:

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BOC for the Euro
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 18004


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MJO says an active June could be on tap.

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Thanks for the update Dr. Masters

MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 10:49 AM PDT on May 27, 2013
Clear
70 °F
Clear
Humidity: 58%
Dew Point: 55 °F
Wind: 4 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 10 out of 16
Pollen: 4.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

Nice temp up there Keeper
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Quoting wxmod:
Ice pack at North pole is disintegrating. MODIS satellite photo today.

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather5 min
Summit Camp, Greenland reported a low temp. today of -27 degrees F.
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Statement as of 11:29 AM CDT on May 27, 2013

The Flood Warning continues for the Little Sioux river at Cherokee.
* Until further notice.
* At 10am Monday the stage was 26.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Recent activity... the river rose above flood stage on Sunday may 26.
* Forecast... the river will crest near 28.5 feet by Monday may 27 then begin falling. The current record crest is 27.3 feet set in June 2010.
* At stages near 27.0 feet... numerous homes and businesses are isolated or flooded in Cherokee... and Highway 59 south of Cherokee is flooded.

...so is that 2 hundred year floods within 3 years? or worse?
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Afternoon All.

Surface trough in the BOC.
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12z Euro

144 hours




Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 18004
Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Preparation 2013

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.




Gonna need to make stone tools before this is done.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

'You're late you need to read back before posting'




dont toy with me i look back on the other pages wish is page 2 and i have seen nothing posted your the one that needs too look be for be for : Quoteing for some one that has not even posted the two yet on a nic new blog
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Ice pack at North pole is disintegrating. MODIS satellite photo today.

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Things are really heating up!!! East of Florida over the Bahamas!! a lot of heavy convention growing by the hour,the Models seems to be right,we should expect a lot of rain and stormy weather for South Florida in the next few days.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO. IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES




92E up two %80

'You're late you need to read back before posting'
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35290
EP, 92, 2013052718, , BEST, 0, 138N, 956W, 30, 1007, LO,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118266
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO. IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES




92E up two %80
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118266
Quoting Grothar:


Both scenarios are possible.

Grothar,thank you very much!! for your answer for some reason my quote buttom is not working?
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Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST WYOMING

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
700 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF MILES CITY MONTANA TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
PHILIP SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ONGOING OVER WRN SD ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND AREA OF STORMS
ALSO LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH
SERN MT/NERN WY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25020.


...MEAD
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z 92E GFDL..... suprise for South Texas?




I would welcome the rains from a TS
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ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 130527120000
2013052712
12.7 265.5
15.1 259.6
140
13.2 264.4
271400
1305271400
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 271400
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7N 94.5W TO 15.1N 100.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 95.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 281400Z.
//
9213052506 106N 892W 20
9213052512 109N 899W 20
9213052518 112N 907W 20
9213052600 115N 915W 20
9213052606 118N 923W 20
9213052612 121N 931W 20
9213052618 124N 939W 25
9213052700 126N 943W 25
9213052706 129N 949W 25
9213052712 132N 956W 25
NNNN

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The SPC upgraded to a Moderate risk of severe weather as expected. Conditions near the eastern Nebraska-Kansas border are very conducive for isolated tornadoes, some of which may be significant. Regardless of tornadic supercells, very large hail is likely.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 128 Comments: 35290
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12Z 92E GFDL..... suprise for South Texas?


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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


ATCF database


Thank you
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Hurricane Preparation 2013

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.


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Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello everybody welcome to the new early Hurricane Season.Just wondering what we can expect here in South Florida from the Tropical system in the Bahamas.I'm a little bit confused with the Models,some shows a system coming from the Gulf of Mexico and crossing Florida,others shows a lot of rain and a low pressure forming East of Florida coming from the Bahamas?,anyways it seems that we will have very stormy days ahead!!!.
Any thoughts about this scenarios?
Thank you!!


Both scenarios are possible.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 30308
Quoting Hurricanes101:
anyone have a link to the atcf database? I wanted to add it to my links for the season


ATCF database
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A broad rotation is readily apparent with 92E but there is extremely limited T-storm activity associated with the system, which should prevent an upgrade for the time being.
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Quoting tropicalnewbee:
Hey guys I am always lurking (even during the offseason but I gotta ask: I live in East Central FL (cape kennedy) and it seems as if FL is in the crosshairs this year. Any thoughts? Thanks in advance. Glad to see Gro made it another year. Did you final get a hoverround for better mobility?


Next year, for my 100th birthday.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 30308
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Chile issues red alert over Copahue volcano, evacuation to start soon

By Associated Press,

SANTIAGO, Chile — Chile has issued a red alert for the Copahue volcano on the border with Argentina that has become increasingly active.

The nearly 10,000-foot (2,965-meter) volcano sits in the Andes cordillera, straddling the border with Argentina’s Neuquen province.


Chile’s Interior and Security Minister Andres Chadwick said Monday that the increased activity could lead to an eruption and officials will begin evacuating about 2,000 people in the area soon.
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Hello everybody welcome to the new early Hurricane Season.Just wondering what we can expect here in South Florida from the Tropical system in the Bahamas.I'm a little bit confused with the Models,some shows a system coming from the Gulf of Mexico and crossing Florida,others shows a lot of rain and a low pressure forming East of Florida coming from the Bahamas?,anyways it seems that we will have very stormy days ahead!!!.
Any thoughts about this scenarios?
Thank you!!
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anyone have a link to the atcf database? I wanted to add it to my links for the season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN IL INTO FAR EAST CENTRAL MO
AND FAR WRN-SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271751Z - 271915Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN LAST SENTENCE OF THE SUMMARY AND WORDING IN
LAST SENTENCE OF THE DISCUSSION.

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONGOING STORMS...RECENTLY DEVELOPING
ALONG A N-S LINE FROM WEST CENTRAL IL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO...TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/BE MAINTAINED WITH EWD EXTENT...WHILE
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP INVOF AN E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT IN
CENTRAL/SRN IL. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WW
ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED FROM FAR EAST CENTRAL MO THROUGH
CENTRAL/SRN IL TO FAR WRN/SWRN IND.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LOWER MO VALLEY MCS EXTENDED FROM FAR WEST CENTRAL IL SWWD INTO
CENTRAL MO /NEAR KCOU/ TO WEST CENTRAL MO /BATES AND CASS COUNTIES/.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO ERN IL /CLARK COUNTY/ THROUGH SRN IND. SWLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S INVOF THE WARM
FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND THE ERN
EXTENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C PER KM/ WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
WEAKENING SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. THE LATTER FACTOR APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING SUFFICIENTLY...GIVEN AN INCREASE IN CU FIELD INVOF THE
WARM FRONT IN IL PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE EWD MOVING MCV...CURRENTLY MOVING FROM NERN
MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE INHIBITION WEAKENS FURTHER. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
NOT TOO STRONG YET...35-45 KT WSWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MCV WILL SPREAD EWD SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN BULK
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 05/27/2013


ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 39999085 39838877 39698747 39168741 38568776 38528869
38638993 38729058 38959072 39999085
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Every year brings the chance for a Major.

Prepare as if it was coming June 1.
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Hey guys I am always lurking (even during the offseason but I gotta ask: I live in East Central FL (cape kennedy) and it seems as if FL is in the crosshairs this year. Any thoughts? Thanks in advance. Glad to see Gro made it another year. Did you final get a hoverround for better mobility?
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN IL INTO FAR EAST CENTRAL MO
AND FAR WRN-SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271739Z - 271915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONGOING STORMS...RECENTLY DEVELOPING
ALONG A N-S LINE FROM WEST CENTRAL IL INTO EAST CENTRAL MO...TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/BE MAINTAINED WITH EWD EXTENT...WHILE
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP INVOF AN E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT IN
CENTRAL/SRN IL. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WW
ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED FROM FAR EAST CENTRAL MO THROUGH
CENTRAL/SRN MO TO FAR WRN/SWRN IND.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LOWER MO VALLEY MCS EXTENDED FROM FAR WEST CENTRAL IL SWWD INTO
CENTRAL MO /NEAR KCOU/ TO WEST CENTRAL MO /BATES AND CASS COUNTIES/.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO ERN IL /CLARK COUNTY/ THROUGH SRN IND. SWLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S INVOF THE WARM
FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND THE ERN
EXTENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C PER KM/ WILL FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
WEAKENING SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. THE LATTER FACTOR APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING SUFFICIENTLY...GIVEN AN INCREASE IN CU FIELD INVOF THE
WARM FRONT IN IL PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE EWD MOVING MCV...CURRENTLY MOVING FROM NERN
MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE INHIBITION WEAKENS FURTHER. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
NOT TOO STRONG YET...35-45 KT WSWLY MIDLEVEL ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THE MCV WILL SPREAD EWD SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 05/27/2013
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WY...WRN/CNTRL SD...FAR SWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271736Z - 271830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AT LEAST SCATTERED SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
PRIMARY THREAT OF SVR HAIL. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS NWRN SD. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
LOW ACROSS ERN MT WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS FAR ERN WY
TO ANOTHER LOW IN NERN CO. AREA E OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED
BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS WRN SD INCREASING
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THIS MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH AN EML
SAMPLED BY WELL BY REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION.

INITIAL THREAT AREA IS LIKELY WRN SD WHERE CAP IS WEAKER AND
ENHANCED LIFT IS ALREADY GENERATING TSTMS. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS W OF THE AREA BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT
WILL STILL SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS AND AN ASSOCIATED SVR HAIL RISK.
A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/27/2013
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NHC is giving 92E an 80% chance of development in the next 48 hours. My %ages are a little higher perhaps at about 90% (but in the next 72 hours). We should have Tropical Storm Barbara tomorrow.

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO. IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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