Dangerous Cyclone Mahasen gathering strength in the Bay of Bengal

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:25 PM GMT on May 11, 2013

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Mahasen is gathering strength over the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, and is a potential major threat to Bangladesh and Myanmar. The 11 am EDT Saturday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Mahasen's top sustained winds at 55 mph, with a motion northwest at 19 mph into the center of the Bay of Bengal. Satellite loops show that Mahasen has a large area of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops that reach high into the atmosphere. The cloud pattern is not well-organized, with little spiral banding. However, the cyclone has developed respectable upper-level outflow channels to the north and east, which are ventilating the storm by carrying away air converging to the center near the surface. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is affecting the storm, which is keeping the system disorganized. However, wind shear has declined about 5 knots since Friday, and is predicted to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Sunday. This should allow organization into a Category 1 storm on Sunday. Aiding this process will be Mahasen's motion away from the Equator, which will help the cyclone leverage the Earth's spin to get itself spinning faster. Also aiding the intensification process will be ocean waters that are an exceptionally warm 31°C (88°F). This is about 1°C warmer than average for this time of year.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen gathering strength over the Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal.

Forecast for Mahasen
The official forecast brings Mahasen to Category 1 strength before landfall occurs in Bangladesh near the Myanmar border on Wednesday. Comparative model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models show wide disagreement on the future intensity and speed of the storm, though. It is possible that wind shear will keep the storm disorganized and below hurricane strength until landfall, as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models. The 06 UTC forecast from the HWRF model brings Mahasen to Category 3 strength on Monday, but weakens the storm to tropical storm strength at landfall. The model predicts that the storm will dump a significant area of heavy rains of 32 cm (12.6") over Maynmar and Bangladesh. The storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains of Mahasen are a huge concern for the thousands of Myanmar refugees living near the coast in makeshift camps, as reported by the New York Times.


Figure 2. Double trouble: Tropical Cyclone Jamala (lower) and Tropical Cyclone Mahasen (upper storm) spin on opposite sides of the Equator in this in this MODIS image taken at 04:25 UTC May 10, 2013. Mahasen is the name of a King of Sri Lanka from the 3rd century. Image credit: NASA.

MJO pulse that spawned Mahasen headed towards the Atlantic
Mahasen spun up in response to an active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) that has been moving through the Indian Ocean during the past week. The MJO is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. The strong MJO pulse coincided with a convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin wave (CCKW), a wave of increased heat and moisture propagating along the Equator, which helped increase thunderstorm activity. The active pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to reach the Western Caribbean sometime May 22 - 26, and there will be a heightened chance of an early-season tropical storm forming in the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean during that time period.

There is a small disturbance a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico today that has developed some spin and a bit of heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is over cool waters of 77 - 79°F, and will likely be torn apart by high wind shear on Sunday.

Resources
Comparative model forecasts of Mahasen from the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, GEM, NAVGEM, and FIM models

India Meteorological Department's tropical cyclone page

Bangladesh Meteorological Department Warning

Myanmar Dept. of Meteorology and Hydrology Warning

Tutorial on Equatorial Waves in the COMET program's Introduction to Tropical Meteorology, plus their case exercise built around the May 2002 "twin twins" case, for use in a tropical synoptic course.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Not sure where ULL came from, this is a UL trough. As Levi mentioned, backside of trough will kill it with convergent flow. Below is the GFS in 12hrs, low firmly under the backside of the trough = death

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1041 AM HST SAT MAY 11 2013

HIC009-112230-
/O.CON.PHFO.FA.Y.0084.000000T0000Z-130511T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MAUI HI-
1041 AM HST SAT MAY 11 2013

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM HST FOR THE
ISLAND OF MAUI IN MAUI COUNTY...

AT 1035 AM HST...RADAR SHOWED THAT PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
MAUI HAVE WEAKENED...AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER...STREAM
GAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS...WHICH WILL BE
SLOW TO RECEDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING. RUNOFF WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON THE
HANA HIGHWAY...DUE TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING
ACTION. ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHEN DRIVING.

&&

LAT...LON 2108 15663 2092 15646 2098 15626 2083 15601
2065 15601 2073 15629 2092 15673

$$

BIRCHARD
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
THIS IS A TEST OF THE T.C.F.A. SYSTEM




PASCH "Man, the WunderGround bloggers sure want us to make that system an invest, what should we do?

KNABB "Set-up a drill for the TCFA and watch them squirm"
LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Here is the 18z Surface Analysis by TAFB. Weak low hanging around.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) 86L - EXERCISE

EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE
WTNT21 KNGU 111800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 35.0W TO 11.7N 40.1W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 35.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 1400 MILES EAST OF
BARBADOS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVITY MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR
THE CENTER. THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH IS FORECASTED TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE. OBSERVATIONS FROM A
SHIP LOCATED NEAR 38N 13W INDICATES A SURFACE PRESSURE FALL FROM
1008MB TO 1005MB WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LOW WIND SHEAR VALUES OF
5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES WILL
FURTHER AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED
BY 121800Z.//
EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE
False alarm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
216. 7544
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) 86L - EXERCISE

EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE
WTNT21 KNGU 111800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 35.0W TO 11.7N 40.1W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 35.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 1400 MILES EAST OF
BARBADOS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVITY MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR
THE CENTER. THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH IS FORECASTED TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE. OBSERVATIONS FROM A
SHIP LOCATED NEAR 38N 13W INDICATES A SURFACE PRESSURE FALL FROM
1008MB TO 1005MB WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LOW WIND SHEAR VALUES OF
5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES WILL
FURTHER AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED
BY 121800Z.//
EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE


thanks for the answer thought it was heading west interesing feature
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) 86L - EXERCISE

EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE
WTNT21 KNGU 111800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 35.0W TO 11.7N 40.1W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 35.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 1400 MILES EAST OF
BARBADOS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVITY MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR
THE CENTER. THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH IS FORECASTED TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE. OBSERVATIONS FROM A
SHIP LOCATED NEAR 38N 13W INDICATES A SURFACE PRESSURE FALL FROM
1008MB TO 1005MB WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LOW WIND SHEAR VALUES OF
5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES WILL
FURTHER AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED
BY 121800Z.//
EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE


OR...instead of having a drill, they could issue an update on a real system that could potentially form, jeez NHC, that's disappointing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THIS IS A TEST OF THE T.C.F.A. SYSTEM



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) 86L - EXERCISE

EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE
WTNT21 KNGU 111800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 35.0W TO 11.7N 40.1W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 35.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 1400 MILES EAST OF
BARBADOS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVITY MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR
THE CENTER. THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH IS FORECASTED TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE. OBSERVATIONS FROM A
SHIP LOCATED NEAR 38N 13W INDICATES A SURFACE PRESSURE FALL FROM
1008MB TO 1005MB WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LOW WIND SHEAR VALUES OF
5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES WILL
FURTHER AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED
BY 121800Z.//
EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE


Drills. -_- Ugh
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) 86L - EXERCISE

EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE
WTNT21 KNGU 111800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 35.0W TO 11.7N 40.1W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 35.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 1400 MILES EAST OF
BARBADOS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVITY MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR
THE CENTER. THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH IS FORECASTED TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE. OBSERVATIONS FROM A
SHIP LOCATED NEAR 38N 13W INDICATES A SURFACE PRESSURE FALL FROM
1008MB TO 1005MB WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LOW WIND SHEAR VALUES OF
5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES WILL
FURTHER AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED
BY 121800Z.//
EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
If memory serves me correctly didn't they skip to 30% chance for Alberto when they first mentioned him?

Yeah it was a quick spin up. Literally was updated like 4 times in 6 hours when it became a storm.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Doc Mr Joe Bastardi made and interesting observation that is to do with the 400 mb temperature heights the other day on weather bell and he showed the difference between this yr and last yr and it is very interesting imo and currently we are beginning to see a more moist atmosphere indeed

THIS YEAR:



LAST YEAR:

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Quoting FutureWx6221:


We're undoubtedly closed, and people are going to start getting angry with the NHC for not mentioning this as soon as winds pick up on the southeast quadrant (storm perspective).
If memory serves me correctly didn't they skip to 30% chance for Alberto when they first mentioned him?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Higher resolution OSCAT, have no idea on accuracy:





We're undoubtedly closed, and people are going to start getting angry with the NHC for not mentioning this as soon as winds pick up on the southeast quadrant (storm perspective).
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonekid:
Interesting CMC run. Continues to show TS Alvin, but in this run it also shows a possible TD Two-E and TD Three-E. Busy early May pattern I'd say it's showing. I highly doubt that it will come to pass though. However, I do think we'll see TS Alvin. The CMC and now other models have picked up and been consistent with a tropical depression or storm forming on May 16.



CMC has been pretty aggressive in predicting this scenario, and the NAVGEM model somewhat agrees with that. However, the GFS and ECMWF are not enthusiastic with this solution. Nonetheless, I think there is a chance that we will see Alvin around late May since the MJO is forecast to reach that area around that time, aiding in development.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonekid:
Interesting CMC run. Continues to show TS Alvin, but in this run it also shows a possible TD Two-E and TD Three-E. Busy early May pattern I'd say it's showing. I highly doubt that it will come to pass though. However, I do think we'll see TS Alvin. The CMC and now other models have picked up and been consistent with a tropical depression or storm forming on May 16.


Originates from the 1010 millibar low currently over Costa Rica.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
203. 7544
that spinning thing is moving west ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Higher resolution OSCAT, have no idea on accuracy:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One of the main reasons I was so deadset against development a few hours ago was the influx of dry air I saw in the center, but the system has done a nice job of fighting it off. Now, with the OSCAT pass indicating a broad, but closed surface low, and wind shear starting to drop, I am starting to get on board with this making it to depression status. I think its too soon to call whether or not it will be subtropical or fully tropical, but my gut tells me tropical as most of the recent convection that has fired has been near the general center of the system.

An important observation for the NHC to make now is to observe the pattern of lower level winds on the east side of the storm. Right now there is somewhat of an absence of data.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting CMC run. Continues to show TS Alvin, but in this run it also shows a possible TD Two-E and TD Three-E. Busy early May pattern I'd say it's showing. I highly doubt that it will come to pass though. However, I do think we'll see TS Alvin. The CMC and now other models have picked up and been consistent with a tropical depression or storm forming on May 16.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
How is this at least not an invest -_-?.yes it only has a short window to live but c'mon now...Loos better than Jose and Danny from 09..
its there last weekend out of season so nobody watchin till wedensday at the start of the epac season
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Afternoon Gro, I see the late afternoon showers popping up down here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
196. Skyepony (Mod)
Lightning must have struck the grid a few miles away. I could hear it through the speakers, power surge in the house. Then the sound of thunder 3 sec later. At least the PC is still working.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Im going to conserve on my Comments. I want to make my 4,000th comment on June 1. ;)


Oh come on..make your 5000 comment on June 1..



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How is this at least not an invest -_-?.yes it only has a short window to live but c'mon now...Loos better than Jose and Danny from 09..
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AOI/XX/XXL
MARK
23.33N65.11W
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
193. Skyepony (Mod)
Great pdf for any in the OSCAT fan club.


I think we've noticed this..
In general, OSCAT winds are found to be of good quality. However some wind speed, latitude and swath dependent biases are observed.

Here they talk about the improvement to models Improvements in forecast skill were generally seen in the winter hemisphere, particularly for sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height where RMS errors were reduced by up to 1.5%.

I assume they derive pressure using the 4D-VAR. They can see the different heights with it.

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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
A lot of below-average geopotential heights...



...and temperatures...



...are showing up across the Arctic. Those weren't there a month ago.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
the CFS..well...what can you say





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Hey guys sorry I'm late. 12Z GFS is interesting. I know that people are saying that GFS is pushing back. but upon doing further analysis I found that GFS infact did NOT push back the timing of this system so much. The invest/disturbance will still form on the 17th of May, though GFS did push back the timing for actual TS development (40MPH) only by a few hours. GFS also had slowed the speed of the track only by about a day or so. the only thing that changes to any drastic movement is, GFS not being able to make up its mind whether it will take a more E track ( similar to Paloma 08) (Nicole 10) (Paula 11) or take a W track similar to(Allison 95) (Arlene 05) (Alex 10) (sorry if I got the year a bit wrong) so yeah keep eyes out.

Also note that CMC is picking up on it. showing large increase in precipitation at end of run, and the EURO does show lowering of surface pressures in the area. so we may soon be able to say other are jumping on the bandwagon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
wider shot



vortex need sub freezing temps of 29 or colder for a min of 3 hrs or longer to do a kill off we are in same condition over the last 7 days everything has just sprung right out and up

we too see cool nights 2 i think maybe 3 near 32 but not much below
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
New convection is firing up. Persistence isn't the problem.

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Tropical weather discussion:

AN UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH THAT WAS AFFECTING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE GREATER ANTILLES DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N66W SUPPORTS A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 23N67W. SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TOWARD HISPANIOLA ON SUN WHILE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD. CURRENTLY...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO N...NE AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...PARTICULARLY S OF 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF THE LOW CENTER.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nice shot of the cooler nw flow overtaking western lakes region



Yeah, we just got freaken ice pellets!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting VR46L:


Nice shot !


Thanks! lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I see everyone is talking about a surface low with T-storms above 'Rico (which looks better and less sheared than yesterday, IMO)

But I have a question. It is supposed to get down to 30 tonight. This won't kill the flower buds, will it?

I sure hope not. Because the buds just started opening this week.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A lot of the GFS ensemble members developed the storm this time, though there's still a huge spread in track, of course.





Easy to see that several of them try to have the lower pressures on the northern side of Cuba.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A lot of the GFS ensemble members developed the storm this time, though there's still a huge spread in track, of course.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
179. VR46L
Quoting Civicane49:


Nice shot !
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
nice shot of the cooler nw flow overtaking western lakes region

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Interested to see the 18z GFS when it comes out.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Good Afternoon Gro.


Good Afternoon, Dean


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
172. VR46L
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Okay? If dry air was shredding it, you would see a whole bunch of orange in the core, which there isn't. There is dry air to its west, so yeah that's a bit of a problem, still doesn't necessarily mean its dying right this instant. Maybe try to say its dying in about 6 or 7 more hours. I might believe you then.


If It becomes an invest I will happily eat crow !
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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