Extreme Drought to Extreme Flood: Weather Whiplash Hits the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:42 PM GMT on April 19, 2013

It seems like just a few months ago barges were scraping bottom on the Mississippi River, and the Army Corps of Engineers was blowing up rocks on the bottom of the river to allow shipping to continue. Wait, it was just a few months ago--less than four months ago! Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on January 1 of 2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940 (after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s.) But according to National Weather Service, the exceptional April rains and snows over the Upper Mississippi River watershed will drive the river by Tuesday to a height 45 feet higher than on January 1. The latest forecast calls for the river to hit 39.4' on Tuesday, which would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis, where flood records date back to 1861. Damaging major flooding is expected along a 250-mile stretch of the Mississippi from Quincy, Illinois to Thebes, Illinois next week. At the Alton, Illinois gauge, upstream from St.Louis, a flood height of 34' is expected on Tuesday. This would be the 6th highest flood in Alton since 1844, and damages to commercial property in the town of Alton occur at this water level. In addition, record flooding is expected on at least five rivers in Illinois and Michigan over the next few days. A crest 1.5' above the all-time record has already occurred on the Des Plaines River in Chicago. This river has invasive Asian Carp that could make their way into Lake Michigan if a 13-mile barrier along the river fails during an extreme flood. Fortunately, NPR in Michigan is reporting today that U.S. Army Corps of Engineers crews stationed along the 13-mile Asian carp barrier have seen no evidence of the fish breaching the structure, and it would have taken a flood much larger than today's record flood to breach the structure. A crest on the Grand River in Grand Rapids, Michigan nearly 4' above the previous record (period of record: at least 113 years) is expected this weekend. At this flood level, major flooding of residential areas is expected, though the flood wall protecting downtown Grand Rapids will keep the commercial center of the city from flooding.


Figure 1. The rains that fell in a 24-hour period ending at 7 am EDT Thursday, April 18, 2013 over Northern Illinois were the type of rains one would expect see fall only once every 40 years (yellow colors), according to METSTAT, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) METSTAT computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 2, published in 2004 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) METSTAT does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/

Damages from the April 2013 Midwest U.S. flood in Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri are likely to run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. Some of the impacts at the flood levels predicted include:

St. Louis, MO:
Major flooding begins. At this level the Choteau Island Levee, protecting 2400 acres, is overtopped. Also, Lemay Park just south of Lemay Ferry Road will begin flood

Cape Girardeau, MO:
Many homes in the Cape Girardeau area are affected and evacuations may be required. Over 100,000 acres is flooded. Numerous roads are closed.

Hannibal, MO:
The Sny Island and South Quincy levees are overtopped between River Mile 315.4 and 264.3, flooding 110,000 acres. The South River levee is overtopped between River Mile 320.5 and 312.1, flooding 10,000 acres.

Quincy, IL:
Missouri Highway 168 east of Palmyra near the BASF plant closes; Quincy Waterworks inundated.

Note that sandbagging efforts may be able to prevent some of these flooding impacts from occurring. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses the latest rainfall and flooding records from this week's epic storm in his latest post. He plans on an update Friday afternoon.


Figure 2. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis are predicted to crest at 39.5', near major flood stage, on Tuesday. This would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis. Records at the St. Louis gauge to back to 1861. Image credit: National Weather Service.


Figure 3. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on 01/01/2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940, after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Flood-Drought-Flood Weather Whiplash
Residents along the Mississippi River have experienced a severe case of flood-drought-flood weather whiplash over the past two years. The Mississippi reached its highest level on record at New Madrid, Missouri on May 6, 2011, when the river crested at 48.35'. Flooding on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers that year cost an estimated $5 billion. The next year, after the great drought of 2012, the river had fallen by over 53' to an all time record low of -5.32' on August 30, 2012. Damage from the great drought is conservatively estimated at $35 billion. Next Tuesday, the river is expected to be at flood stage again in New Madrid, 40' higher than the August 2012 record low. Now, that is some serious weather whiplash. I'm often asked about the seemingly contradictory predictions from climate models that the world will see both worse floods and worse droughts due to global warming. Well, we have seen a classic example in the Midwest U.S. over the past two years of just how this kind of weather whiplash is possible. A warmer atmosphere is capable of bringing heavier downpours, since warmer air can hold more water vapor. We saw an example of this on Thursday morning, when an upper air balloon sounding over Lincoln, Illinois revealed near-record amounts of moisture for this time of year. The precipitable water--how much rain could fall if one condensed all the water vapor in a column above the ground into rain--was 1.62", just barely short of the Illinois April record for precipitable water of 1.64" set on April 20, 2000 (upper air records go back to 1948.) Thursday's powerful low pressure system was able to lift that copious moisture, cool it, and condense it into record rains. So how can you have worse droughts with more moisture in the air? Well, you still need a low pressure system to come along and wring that moisture out of the air to get rain. When natural fluctuations in jet stream patterns take storms away from a region, creating a drought, the extra water vapor in the air won't do you any good. There will be no mechanism to lift the moisture, condense it, and generate drought-busting rains. The drought that ensues will be more intense, since temperatures will be hotter and the soil will dry out more.

The new normal in the coming decades is going to be more and more extreme flood-drought-flood cycles like we are seeing now in the Midwest, and this sort of weather whiplash is going to be an increasingly severe pain in the neck for society. We'd better prepare for it, by building a more flood-resistant infrastructure and developing more drought-resistant grains, for example. And if we continue to allow heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue to build up in the atmosphere at the current near-record pace, no amount of adaptation can prevent increasingly more violent cases of weather whiplash from being a serious threat to the global economy and the well-being of billions of people.


Video 1. One person was hospitalized after a sinkhole swallowed three cars in the South Deering neighborhood on the Southeast Side of Chicago on Thursday, April 18, 2013. Witnesses said the hole opened up around 5 a.m. at 9600 South Houston Avenue, quickly growing from about 20 feet to about 40 feet. First two cars slid in, then a third as the hole widened, witnesses said. A fourth vehicle was towed from the edge as it was about to fall inside. The sinkhole was due to heavy flooding that broke a water main built in 1915.

Related Science
A 2010 study by Duke University scientists suggests that global warming is the main cause of a significant intensification in the Bermuda High that in recent decades has more than doubled the frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in the Southeast United States. Thus, the Southeast U.S. may see greater than its share of "Weather Whiplash"--extreme droughts followed by extreme floods--in coming decades. Joe Romm at climateporgress.org has a post discussing the paper, with links to examples of how the Southeast U.S. has seen both extreme droughts and extreme floods since 2005.


Jeff Masters

Underpass flooding (aerojad)
Belmont St. at the Metra train station.
Underpass flooding

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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837. beell
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT SUN APR 21 2013

...FL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS THAT NOTABLE COOLING HAS OCCURRED ABOVE
600 MB SINCE 00Z...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A COMPARABLY MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAN
YESTERDAY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. MOREOVER...AN ELY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL AUGMENT MODEST /20-30 KT/
WLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS TO YIELD SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.

INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MIDLEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL G.O.M. WILL ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES /OBSERVED OVER THE E-CNTRL/SERN
PENINSULA/ TO YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES...A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
EXIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

Clouds/T-storms associated with the central GOM mid-level impulse showing up on wv.





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT SUN APR 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211654Z - 211930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEA BREEZE CONVECTION FCST TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY...BECOMING NUMEROUS THIS AFTN PER SPC ENHANCED
TSTM OUTLOOK. MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS...WITH MRGL SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. FOCI FOR LOCALLY
ENHANCED RISK SHOULD BE INVOF OUTFLOW-OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW-SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. ATTM...POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION/COVERAGE
APPEARS TOO LOW FOR WW.

DISCUSSION...16Z SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING/ORIGINAL
SYNOPTIC FRONT IS QUASISTATIONARY OVER SRN FL...ACROSS PORTIONS PALM
BEACH/HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTIES...AND MAINLY IS MANIFEST AS WIND SHIFT
LINE AWAY FROM SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SECOND/STRONGER
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH ALSO WAS EVIDENT IN 12Z 925-MB
ANALYSIS...HAS BECOME BETTER EVIDENT AT SFC AMIDST DIFFERENTIAL
DIABATIC HEATING AND DEEP ELYS TO ITS S. LATTER FRONTAL ZONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR I-4 CORRIDOR DAB-TBW AND MAY DRIFT NWWD. VIS IMAGE
LOOPS AND SFC DATA INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION OVER GULF STREAM HAS EFFECTIVELY BOWED SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY INLAND FROM NRN ST LUCIE INTO ERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES...AS
WELL AS OVER SRN PALM BEACH...CENTRAL BROWARD AND NRN MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES. CONVECTION ALREADY HAS FORMED ALONG THAT BOUNDARY OVER
INTERIOR BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTY LINE...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS
EXPECTED FARTHER N UP E COAST SEA BREEZE IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

PW S OF NRN FRONT AND INLAND FROM SEA BREEZES COMMONLY IS IN
1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE AND LOCALLY GREATER...BASED ON GPS-PW
READINGS...MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS. CONTINUED DIABATIC
HEATING IN MOISTURE-RICH/PRECONVECTIVE/INLAND AIR MASS ALREADY IS
RAISING 0-3 KM CAPE SUBSTANTIALLY AND REMOVING CINH...AND SHOULD
BOOST MLCAPE INTO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE AWAY FROM TSTMS/OUTFLOW.
THIS...ALONG WITH DEPTH OF BUOYANT LAYER IN SOUNDINGS...INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STG PRECIP LOADING AND RELATED RISK FOR
DOWNBURSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS AND CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE.
KINEMATICALLY...WEAK/CHAOTIC 0-3 KM AGL FLOW YIELDS WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR FROM VWP. HOWEVER...STG UPPER/ANVIL-LEVEL WINDS IN MORNING
RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ENHANCED CONVECTIVE VENTILATION
ALOFT AND RELATED CONTRIBUTION TO STORM MAINTENANCE/ORGANIZATION.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/21/2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Those are good questions.


And the answer to a question unasked: the constrictive effect of litter


Well that is a good article for awareness of the sad environmental problems with litter but I'm not sure it answers my question, lol.
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Quoting LargoFl:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK
COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL.


I think they need to expand that outlook west, easterly flow is setting up which should place good coverage in the Tampa Bay area and points south. Moisture is quickly recovering too and will continue to throughout the day getting very high by evening.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


What are you talking about? Dry thunderstorm and ball lightning?



Those are good questions.


And the answer to a question unasked: the constrictive effect of litter
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Well it looks like Central Florida has a much greater chance of showers and thunderstorms today, especially the west side of Florida. As you might notice, an easterly low level flow is setting up along with full heating. Thunderstorms will develop and move east to west across the state. Heating of the day and sea breeze collisions will be enhanced later in the day by some upper energy that will induce some added large scale lift.

I think the Tampa Bay area has the best shot today into tonight of much needed rain in quite a while. Now given how fickle it has been lately, I wouldn't count on it, but everything looks good as of now for beneficial rains.
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


I would think that the Saturn V would have made the list being that it took the 1st men to the Moon.

Edit: My bad!!! I missed the part about visiting the ISS. just saw Historic Spacecraft.



My ADD was showing again.

After having our dry thunderstorm and the ball lightning yesterday afternoon, we finally got some much needed rain overnight.



What are you talking about? Dry thunderstorm and ball lightning?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
RAP model..................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


I would think that the Saturn V would have made the list being that it took the 1st men to the Moon.

Edit: My bad!!! I missed the part about visiting the ISS. just saw Historic Spacecraft.



My ADD was showing again.

After having our dry thunderstorm and the ball lightning yesterday afternoon, we finally got some much needed rain overnight.


The Saturn was sure a beauty.
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Meanwhile by me, the suns out, getting warm,the birds are chirping the squirrels are scampering and no sign at all of any rain here so far..........
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Miami and South Florida................CAUTION ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR WATERSPOUT FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WATERSPOUTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WATERSPOUT FORMATION TENDS TO FORM ALONG THE EDGE OF DARK
LONG FLAT CLOUD BASES WITHIN CLOUDLINES.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
stay alert south florida.............
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Attempt #3 today for Antares! Weather looking far better than yesterday.



I would think that the Saturn V would have made the list being that it took the 1st men to the Moon.

Edit: My bad!!! I missed the part about visiting the ISS. just saw Historic Spacecraft.



My ADD was showing again.

After having our dry thunderstorm and the ball lightning yesterday afternoon, we finally got some much needed rain overnight.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
This seems more likely to spawn some dramatic wx later tonight and tomorrow for FL and the NE Bahamas.
YES FOR FLORIDA BAD WEATHER AROUND 5-6 PM TONIGHT,THEN THE FUN STARTS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. LOTS OF CLOUDS FROM BREVARD COUNTY AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...STILL SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL HEAT UP A BIT MORE WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE. A
DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
VERY SLOWLY PUSH INLAND FROM EAST TO WEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.
This seems more likely to spawn some dramatic wx later tonight and tomorrow for FL and the NE Bahamas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK
COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Afternoon all.

Very interesting blog the doc posted, especially the sinkhole video.

Weather here has been increasingly cloudy all morning, but the wx imagery suggests we may not get much in the way of showers / thunderstorms today since it seems the entire system is pulling away to the north...

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.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. LOTS OF CLOUDS FROM BREVARD COUNTY AND
TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...STILL SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL HEAT UP A BIT MORE WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE. A
DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
VERY SLOWLY PUSH INLAND FROM EAST TO WEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
east coast showers starting to come in lil by lil...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the April 20 2013 TCHP.



Compare that with the 2012 April 20 TCHP below and this year is warmer.

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Quoting Tazmanian:




thats old and you posted that on sat so nothing is going too chages in 24hrs

Maybe some of us did'nt see it yesterday taz..why are you always correcting people and arguing with them? try and be a little nicer man..
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could Zeus be named therefore complete the entire TWC winter storm names?

Models have come into much more agreement on our developing winter storm for early in the week. A strong Canadian cold front brings increasing snow for much of Montana on Sunday. The snow will shift southward into Wyoming and western South Dakota on Sunday night, including the Black Hills. 6-12" of accumulation is possible, mainly in the higher elevations and 5-8" for Rapid City. The snow advances southward into Colorado, western Nebraska and streaks northeast through SD/NE into southern MN, including Minneapolis. Denver is in-line to receive 2-4" and Minneapolis 1-3" by Tuesday morning. As the cold front blasts southward snow develops through western Kansas into the northern TX panhandle with some accumulations by midday Tuesday. Snow will fade away as the system heads eastward into the MS Valley. At this time, it appears that significant travel disruptions are not likely with the late season nature of the storm, but some minor travel issues are possible early in the morning Monday and Tuesday for the central High Plains into the Rockies. If we were to name the system, it would likely take place later Sunday or early Monday.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hello,

whoever has a hurricane forecast list, here is some more numbers for it:

16-24 Named Storms

8-12 Hurricanes

4-6 Major Hurricanes
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Quoting Tazmanian:



but where them 8 hurricanes being nameed at that time?


Yes, they were all identified as such during the season as far as I am aware of.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


At what time is liftoff?


Aiming for a T-0 at 21:00:00UT
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Here is the April 20 2013 TCHP.



Compare that with the 2012 April 20 TCHP below and this year is warmer.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Attempt #3 today for Antares! Weather looking far better than yesterday.


At what time is liftoff?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Attempt #3 today for Antares! Weather looking far better than yesterday.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes it dos



my point any thing back from 50s that where not doing name storms at the time dos not count so the year 2005 still stans has close has you are going too get with 9 cat 3 or higher storm being named even no we olny saw 7 named cat 3 or higher storms any thing back from the 30s and 50s dos not count has they where not doing name storms at that time


well, the intensity of a storm is what matters the most, the name is secondary...
1887 had 19 storms...they don't count?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


does not matter really.



yes it dos



my point any thing back from 50s that where not doing name storms at the time dos not count so the year 2005 still stans has close has you are going too get with 9 cat 3 or higher storm being named even no we olny saw 7 named cat 3 or higher storms any thing back from the 30s and 50s dos not count has they where not doing name storms at that time
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Good morning everyone...

Just in case you missed it...I made a special blog yesterday where I have the chart of 102 entries. A video there too.

Now I have 104, need to include 2 more on there later...
have a look if you haven't
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I am starting to see a low off the east coast of florida
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Quoting Tazmanian:



but where them 8 hurricanes being nameed at that time?


does not matter really.

*Actually they were named (sort of), using the phonetic alphabet (Able, Baker, Charlie, Dog...etc)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


1950 we got 8 majors..
2005 we got 15 hurricanes



but where them 8 hurricanes being nameed at that time?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



we are not going back too the 30s and 50s tpy weather in fac i dont even think we had any 9 cat 3 or higher name storm in the 30s and 50s if we did that was like one in the life time event i think we are seeing less and lees cat 3 or higher storms with all the dry air and dust we have out there



2005 is has close too 9 Cat 3 or higher storm your going too get and that was a one in a life time event and in that year we olny made it too 7 cat 3 or higher storms

Link


1950 we got 8 majors..
2005 we got 15 hurricanes
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanes2018:
less cold weather in the usa starting next week!! big warm up!!




thats old and you posted that on sat so nothing is going too chages in 24hrs
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Quoting NativeSun:
Hi hurricane23, trHUrrIXC5MMX. The reason for all the majors(9)is,I believe we are going back to a 30s to 50s type weather pattern in the Tropical Atlantic. There will be a cold PDO, a warm AMO, the atmosphere on some of the models looks to be warm and moist this year. No el nino and very warm waters in the Tropical Atlantic and Gulf. This is just a guess thats all and I hope it doesn't happen. Also I believe their will be a major hit on the US coast this year. It's been to long without one.


Hello,
Alright...it's fine with me..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
less cold weather in the usa starting next week!! big warm up!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NativeSun:
Hi hurricane23, trHUrrIXC5MMX. The reason for all the majors(9)is,I believe we are going back to a 30s to 50s type weather pattern in the Tropical Atlantic. There will be a cold PDO, a warm AMO, the atmosphere on some of the models looks to be warm and moist this year. No el nino and very warm waters in the Tropical Atlantic and Gulf. This is just a guess thats all and I hope it doesn't happen. Also I believe their will be a major hit on the US coast this year. It's been to long without one.



we are not going back too the 30s and 50s tpy weather in fac i dont even think we had any 9 cat 3 or higher name storm in the 30s and 50s if we did that was like one in the life time event i think we are seeing less and lees cat 3 or higher storms with all the dry air and dust we have out there



2005 is has close too 9 Cat 3 or higher storm your going too get and that was a one in a life time event and in that year we olny made it too 7 cat 3 or higher storms

Link
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...SOUTH FLORIDA...
DIURNAL HEATING AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WITHIN MODEST WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH SEA-BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON TSTM
COVERAGE. THE STRONGER STORMS APPEAR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND A FEW SVR HAIL REPORTS.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
911 AM EDT SUN APR 21 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-211615-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
911 AM EDT SUN APR 21 2013

.NOW...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE BY MID DAY AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE CONVECTION SHIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST. MARINERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS TO REDEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE TREASURE COAST. CLOUDS OVER METRO ORLANDO
AND THE SPACE COAST WILL SLOW DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WILL DEVELOP CUMULUS CLOUDS AS THE
SUN HEATS UP THE AREA OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.


&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Looks like Florida is going to be the trouble spot today huh
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Suns out here now,so we will get..day time heating here..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
788. beell
Front should drift back north today.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SUN APR 21 2013

...S FL TODAY...
SFC HEATING AND COOL MID-LVL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY /1500-2500 J PER KG SBCAPE/ OVER S FL THIS AFTN...ALONG
AND S OF STALLED FRONT
WHERE PW WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.
COUPLED WITH ASCENT/UPR DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM WEAK SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCES...SETUP SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG BOTH THE
FRONT AND SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO ITS SOUTH.
A FEW SVR PULSE STORMS
WITH WET MICROBURSTS/HAIL MAY OCCUR...ALTHOUGH MODEST LOW TO MID-LVL
FLOW AND DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE OF STORMS SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE.



Current Surface Analysis


Forecast Surface-Valid Sunday, 8PM EDT.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Looks like I'm sitting in that dry slot for awhile today..



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Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice