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Katrina-level storm surges have more than doubled due to global warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:08 PM GMT on March 25, 2013

Since 1923, there has been a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every 20 years, according to a storm surge index developed by Aslak Grinsted, an assistant professor at the Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute. The index uses data from six tide gauges along the U.S. coast from Texas to New Jersey from 1923 - 2011, and is part of a statistical model that links global temperatures to the risk of Katrina-level storm surges. Because of global warming, Katrina-magnitude storm surge events have now more than doubled in frequency since the late 1800s, Grinsted and colleagues argue, in research published in March 2013 in the scientific journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS). Their statistical model found that an increase of 0.4°C in global temperatures was sufficient to double the odds of Katrina-magnitude storm surges. Since global temperatures have risen 0.6°C since the late 1800s, "we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all ‘Katrinas’ are due to global warming,” said Grinsted in a press release. Projecting into the future, the model predicts that if the global climate warms as expected by 2°C before the end of the century, Katrina-level storm surge events will become ten times more common, and a Katrina-level surge will occur, on average, every 2 years, instead of every 20 years. Since sea level is steadily rising due to global warming, these future storm surges will also be riding in on top of an elevated ocean surface, and will thus be able to do even greater damage than in the past. Since this is a simple statistical model, I am hopeful that the relationship Grinsted at al. found might break down as the climate warms, due to unexpected changes in hurricane tracks, wind shear, etc. However, this high-end consequence of global warming is quite possible, and is something coastal planners should should consider, particularly since the U.S. population living along the coast is expected to grow from 123 million in 2010 to 134 million people by 2020, according to a NOAA report issued on March 25. We need to retreat from barrier islands highly vulnerable to storm surge, and invest in significantly improved shoreline protection measures in the coming decades.


Figure 1. High water marks on East Ship Island, Mississippi, after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Katrina brought the highest storm surge ever recorded on the U.S. coast, 27.8' at Pass Christian, MS. Left image: Bark stripped off a tree with salt-burned pine trees in the background (note the 25 ft (7.65 m) long survey rod for scale). Right: Massive beach and over wash erosion illustrated by damaged and snapped pine trees along the beach. Arrows show the the high water mark left by the storm surge. Image credit: Fritz et al., 2007, "Hurricane Katrina storm surge distribution and field observations on the Mississippi Barrier Islands" (PDF File), Estuarine, Coastal, and Shelf Science (2007), doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2007.03.015.


Figure 2. Number of Katrina magnitude surge events per decade for the past and future computed using gridded global temperatures and a statistical model relating global temperatures to storm surges. Confidence intervals of 5% and 16% are shown in the lighter blue colors. Image credit: Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.

References
Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923," PNAS 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109

Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures" PNAS March 18, 2013 201209980, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1209980110

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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992. Stormchaser121
3:01 AM GMT on April 04, 2013
Quoting Levi32:


Given that I think storm development is likely to focus in the more classic deep tropical development regions this year, yes I think so.

Hi Levi...is the Gulf of Mexico any concern this year for tropical weather? Or is it just the east coast?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
990. hydrus
4:53 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

There is absolutely no known mechanism (short of a global thermonuclear war, the eruption of a supervolcano, or a strike by a giant asteroid or comet) that could possibly cause the current GHG-induced warming to reverse.

It's cold in the eastern U.S. at the moment, and it's cold in Europe. Those areas make up a small portion of the planet, which has actually been pretty toasty over the last month. Try to not confuse "regional" with "global".
A sudden shift in major ocean currents could plausibly cool things down according to NASA..A Chilling Possibility
By disturbing a massive ocean current, melting Arctic sea ice might trigger colder weather in Europe and North America.

NASA


March 5, 2004: Global warming could plunge North America and Western Europe into a deep freeze, possibly within only a few decades.

That's the paradoxical scenario gaining credibility among many climate scientists. The thawing of sea ice covering the Arctic could disturb or even halt large currents in the Atlantic Ocean. Without the vast heat that these ocean currents deliver--comparable to the power generation of a million nuclear power plants--Europe's average temperature would likely drop 5 to 10°C (9 to 18°F), and parts of eastern North America would be chilled somewhat less. Such a dip in temperature would be similar to global average temperatures toward the end of the last ice age roughly 20,000 years ago.

see captionRight: Retreating Arctic ice, 1979-2003, based on data collected by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI)..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
989. 1900hurricane
4:43 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Never realized how much goes on in the old blog entry when a new one has been posted.
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988. Levi32
4:41 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
840. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:06 AM AKDT on March 27, 2013

I graphed this last night.




You know better than that TA. You're plotting from the bottom of the AMO cycle to the top of the AMO cycle. Did you expect anything other than a positive trend for such a period? The satellite era does not cover a full AMO period, thus any such graphs are useless.

What would be far more enlightening is if you plotted a linear trend for the pre-1995 era and the post-1995 era, which was the transition point between a negative and positive phase of the AMO. This is the proper way to interpret the last 40 years of Atlantic ACE.



Edit: My y-axis should read (10^4 * kt^2 / year).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
987. DFWdad
4:40 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2012:
A year of extreme weather events in the US


Excerpt:


Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters claimed approximately 14000 lives and
resulted in economic losses of about USD 186 billion in 2012. The cost to insurers was
over USD 77 billion, making 2012 the third-highest year since 1970, when sigma began collecting natural catastrophe data.









Disclaimer: Source is insurance company Swiss Re


Thank you for the link!

I was really curious to see how the insurance industry views Climate Change. Here are a couple of excerpts I found interesting [with commentary of course ;) ]...

"Assuming a 10-inch rise in sea levels by 2050, Swiss Re’s proprietary storm-surge model shows that the frequency of losses like Sandy are likely to increase in the future...the model suggests that the probability of extreme flood losses occurring will almost double"
So with all of the various models (and National Geographic and other media sites hyping up the more dire predictions for ratings), they are looking at 10" in 2050 being reasonable to expect.

"So even without considering how climate change may affect future hurricane frequency or severity, the impact of sea-level rise alone is likely to be significant for both those seeking and those providing insurance protection. It is encouraging that decision makers, eg in New York City, are pro-actively investigating the implications of rising sea levels and considering available options for mitigating the potential impact of such a change."
Yep, so they see impacts to insurance coming, but it is not here yet. Also, seems to imply it time to build some flood walls, but not time to relocate Manhattan yet.

"Along the New York coastline, the observed
sea-level rise amounts to an average of 3mm per year over the last century. The globally observed retreat of glaciers and sea ice as well as thermal expansion of warmer ocean waters provide a convincing physical explanation for this observed trend. In the New York area, a region-specific subsidence of the earth’s crust adds to the overall sea-level rise.
"
OK, very reasonable language, considering all aspects.







Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
986. Neapolitan
4:38 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
we have to wait maybe 5-10 years to see if this extended cold continues year after year in the south before we can be sure the climate is in fact changing..1-2 years isnt enough i imagine..and IF that happens..guess i'd better by some snow tires lol
Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

There is absolutely no known mechanism (short of a global thermonuclear war, the eruption of a supervolcano, or a strike by a giant asteroid or comet) that could possibly cause the current GHG-induced warming to reverse.

It's cold in the eastern U.S. at the moment, and it's cold in Europe. Those areas make up a small portion of the planet, which has actually been pretty toasty over the last month. Try to not confuse "regional" with "global".
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
985. barbamz
4:34 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting 1900hurricane:
ECMWF sure makes this storm really picturesque with a very tightly wound circulation. Visible sure is going to be fun to watch over the next day or two.





Atlantic storm. Just in from Terra/Modis. Source
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
984. AGWcreationists
4:28 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting JNCali:


It's when the insurance companies have to be nationalized due to global coastal devastation,


News flash - it's not insurance companies on the hook for surge/flood damage, it's the American taxpayer - and that underwriting of risk at a price that private insurance companies wouldn't touch strongly contributed to overdevelopment of coastal areas.

Want to get people moving off barrier islands? Lobby your congresscritters to end federal flood insurance on such.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
983. Slamguitar
4:27 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting txjac:
Okay ...everyone that is tired of the cold send it to me ...


Give me a sec, got to find a big enough airtight container...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
982. LargoFl
4:26 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
we have to wait maybe 5-10 years to see if this extended cold continues year after year in the south before we can be sure the climate is in fact changing..1-2 years isnt enough i imagine..and IF that happens..guess i'd better by some snow tires lol
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981. Jedkins01
4:25 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
980. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:23 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
979. LargoFl
4:23 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
978. OracleDeAtlantis
4:22 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Models do show a load of cold air spilling south after easter.



About a week ago, I had a dream about large concentrated hail in a place that gets a lot of it. When I woke up, I pondered to myself, why was I dreaming about large hail in a place that gets a lot of it, especially at this time of the year.

Your map may provide a clue, however, because the boundary of expected colder than average temps. vs. higher than expected, is approximately where I saw a curious boundary line drawn in my dream. What that boundary line represented, I wasn't sure.

In my dream I saw this boundary line extending up the west side of Arkansas, and then I looked and saw great hail damage in several cities to the west and southwest of, and including the boundary line, but nothing specific by name. I saw devastating hail damage to cars, such that some of the roofs were partly caved in.

I rarely publish my weather dreams here, but this forecast map intrigued me in relation to the curious line or boundary that I saw. I also can't recall seeing this long range temperature forecast, or any other for the upcoming spring storm season, prior to this dream.

I can only recall dreaming about large hail one other time, and it was last year. That dream came true almost to perfection and in a place where large concentrated hail is rarely seen, perhaps only once a century. It was unusual, because a single storm cell damaged all four sides of people's homes, and I know that is rare. It also came from a direction atypical for severe weather in the area I dreamed about. Interestingly, the dream also pointed to the atypical direction, such than when I woke up, I couldn't believe what I had seen. I felt it had to be wrong. Yet, it happened, and directly changed the course of my life's path.

It may not mean anything, but after what happened to me last year, I won't ignore it.

Here's my map, showing roughly the boundary I saw, extending west and southwest as far as I recall seeing cities affected.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
977. LargoFl
4:21 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
you can almost SEE the cold air sitting on the water..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
976. wxchaser97
4:21 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting Slamguitar:
Faster and faster it melts! Clear blue skies in my part of the mitten will keep this going.






Snow is gone in my part of SE MI. Partly cloudy skies and below average temperatures again today.

Reading the comments today = O.O
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
975. 1900hurricane
4:19 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
12Z GFS at 144 hours: With that cutoff rejoining the main flow following the cold air intrusion, this would be a great recipe for Texas snow in the dead of winter. However, the dead of winter it is not.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
974. LargoFl
4:19 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
973. LargoFl
4:17 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
THURSDAY.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
972. LargoFl
4:16 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
971. txjac
4:15 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Okay ...everyone that is tired of the cold send it to me ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
969. LargoFl
4:14 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
its getting a tad warmer but the Air is still real cold..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
968. DDR
4:05 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting barbamz:


Speedy, speedy ...

that explains the rain im getting right now,a small moisture surge...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
967. DDR
4:03 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Good afternoon all
Here in Trinidad we've got our monthly rainfall(25mm) and more in just under 3 hours,crazy but i guess what is normal about the weather these days anyway.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
966. nrtiwlnvragn
4:02 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2012:
A year of extreme weather events in the US


Excerpt:


Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters claimed approximately 14000 lives and
resulted in economic losses of about USD 186 billion in 2012. The cost to insurers was
over USD 77 billion, making 2012 the third-highest year since 1970, when sigma began collecting natural catastrophe data.









Disclaimer: Source is insurance company Swiss Re
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
965. barbamz
4:00 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting pcola57:
I agree 1900..
Wow the Jet Stream is whipping!!



Speedy, speedy ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
964. AGWcreationists
3:59 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
About when and where weather will rumble, accuweather



It does seem strange to see a severe weather risk map exclude all of Oklahoma and Kansas and just about all of Texas.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
963. txjac
3:57 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting AGWcreationists:
Actually, what he said here had some relevance:

The US forbids new drilling contracts on Our, yes our the peoples property of the United States.

The strong majority of increased production has come on private lands. The Obama Administration has moved to hinder additional development of federal lands.

So if by 'peoples property of the United States' the poster meant federal lands, that would be largely accurate.



Drilling rig count is down, way down this year.
A lot of fracking going on
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
962. AGWcreationists
3:53 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting MrNatural:

Be nice to have your facts straight. IEA forecasts that the U.S. will surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production by 2020. In fact, U.S. oil exports are expected to exceed oil imports by the end of the year. As far as the rest of your rant, I'll leave it to the other good Wunderground readers to update you on the facts
Actually, what he said here had some relevance:

The US forbids new drilling contracts on Our, yes our the peoples property of the United States.

The strong majority of increased production has come on private lands. The Obama Administration has moved to hinder additional development of federal lands.

So if by 'peoples property of the United States' the poster meant federal lands, that would be largely accurate.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
961. 1900hurricane
3:51 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Enjoying the sunshine here in Texas for the time being, although it could be a little warmer. Really excited to see some serious rain chances on the horizon though. We sure need it!





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
960. pcola57
3:45 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
I agree 1900..
Wow the Jet Stream is whipping!!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
959. 1900hurricane
3:43 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Jet streaks like this one sure are nice when it comes to bombgenesis. 12Z 250 mb winds three hours out (or at about right now).

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
958. AGWcreationists
3:41 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Saying "Both sides do it" is a major statement of false equivalence. In short, one side is trying to preserve the planet for future generations; the other is trying to preserve CEO bonuses and stock prices.

Not the same. Not the same at all.I don't think it takes all that much diligence; just a willingness to be intellectually honest about science, and the ability to be skeptical of claims about climate change made by those who stand to profit the most from denying that it's happening.

You say, "most people are too busy", but--as with your comments yesterday--that's a blanket statement that seriously underrates the ability of many people to engage in critical thinking. And given that a majority of Americans now see climate change as both real and anthropogenic, I'd say "most people" are definitely not "too busy"...
Sorry, but I am not talking moral equivalence. I am talking the rampant corruption on all sides of the political debate. So we end up with Solyndra and corrupt European carbon trading - just for starters. Because IMO your side is more concerned about intent - as long as they are trying, well, that is what matters. So what if billions of taxpayer dollars pour into the pockets of the well-connected, who in turn deliver shuttered factories?

And there are blind spots on the right as well - too many on the right give corporations the benefit of a doubt, acting like we don't need regulation of banks, oil companies and commodity exchanges. I don't see this as a problem of just one side. All sides are allowing polarization to create massive blind spots.

I'm not just a skeptic of AGW - I question the motives of just about all entities nowadays. The lack of transparency in our institutions and the legal graft that greases the skids are a cancer upon our times.

And it does take a good amount of effort to run all that down.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
957. 1900hurricane
3:40 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
ECMWF sure makes this storm really picturesque with a very tightly wound circulation. Visible sure is going to be fun to watch over the next day or two.



Looks like I'm finally getting ready to cross post 10,000!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
956. OrchidGrower
3:40 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hurricane score card note:

I have 48 bloggers listed on my chart now. I'm looking for some more, don't hesitate to tell me your numbers if you have not done so yet.

Expect the new chart this upcoming Saturday



Feeling nervous about this season ... posting 19-9-5
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
955. Slamguitar
3:38 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Faster and faster it melts! Clear blue skies in my part of the mitten will keep this going.





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
954. PensacolaDoug
3:37 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
17/7/3
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
953. SouthTampa
3:36 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ok, here's my guess...14/4/1.
12/3/0. Going low.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
952. barbamz
3:34 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
This site is a nice new weather toy for me, offering several panels. Maybe useful for you guys too, though it's in German (and unfortunately it's not possible to post the pics):

Worldwide temps forecast +/- compared to average (two meters above ground)
http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/GM/tdif f2m_01.htm
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
951. 1900hurricane
3:32 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
As of 06Z, the GFS already initialized the low to be right around 960 mb. With the passage of an additional nine and a half hours, it's not hard to imagine that the low has gotten markedly stronger. And with a tighter thermal gradient along the warm front than the cold front in addition to bending back thickness around the low's center, the storm is already showing the start of transition to warm seclusion.







Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
950. AtHomeInTX
3:26 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hurricane score card note:

I have 48 bloggers listed on my chart now. I'm looking for some more, don't hesitate to tell me your numbers if you have not done so yet.

Expect the new chart this upcoming Saturday



Ok, here's my guess...14/4/1.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
949. GeorgiaStormz
3:23 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
This blog




me




see you guys later.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
948. MrNatural
3:23 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting trunkmonkey:


Here is my theory about the global warming crowd!

1. Most are socialist or communist and use the Climate issues to further their agenda, and to destroy the Capitalist form of Government in the United States.
Regulations from the Government will destroy these industries, and give unfair advantages to foreign Governments.
I.E. look at the Oil industry, Russia and China are expanding their oil industry, and are becoming greater economic powers in the world. China a Sweden are drilling in the straits of the Keys right off the coast of Key West, and angle drilling for oil as we speak. The US Government forbids any US company to do this type of drilling.
As time goes on, history will repeat itself with the power of oil and natural resources, the United States of America will not be the same Country as founded.
Canada is drilling for oil and is the USA NO.1 oil trading partner.
The US forbids new drilling contracts on Our, yes our the peoples property of the United States.
The new world order is taking hold in the United States and in this forum.
I know the Alinsky's types in this forum, will make me look like a lier, or discredit me in some fashion,
they always do.
Along with my rant, I was a 60's protester, went to many rallies,One thing I have found through the years,
The leaders of those 60's protest have become the people who they HATED!
Freedom of choice, reasonable regulations should be the way our Government operates, NOT with an agenda to destroy our economy and freedoms!

Be nice to have your facts straight. IEA forecasts that the U.S. will surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production by 2020. In fact, U.S. oil exports are expected to exceed oil imports by the end of the year. As far as the rest of your rant, I'll leave it to the other good Wunderground readers to update you on the facts
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
947. barbamz
3:22 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hurricane score card note:

I have 48 bloggers listed on my chart now. I'm looking for some more, don't hesitate to tell me your numbers if you have not done so yet.

Expect the new chart this upcoming Saturday



My bet (the first one on this subject, lol): 18/6/3
Thanks Max.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
946. Neapolitan
3:22 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting AGWcreationists:
IMO neither can be trusted
Saying "Both sides do it" is a major statement of false equivalence. In short, one side is trying to preserve the planet for future generations; the other is trying to preserve CEO bonuses and stock prices.

Not the same. Not the same at all.
Quoting AGWcreationists:
...it takes a lot of diligence to try and sort out what is going on, and most people are too busy to keep up with it all.
I don't think it takes all that much diligence; just a willingness to be intellectually honest about science, and the ability to be skeptical of claims about climate change made by those who stand to profit the most from denying that it's happening.

You say, "most people are too busy", but--as with your comments yesterday--that's a blanket statement that seriously underrates the ability of many people to engage in critical thinking. And given that a majority of Americans now see climate change as both real and anthropogenic, I'd say "most people" are definitely not "too busy"...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
945. bappit
3:21 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Chilly over in South Carolina. Columbia NWS:

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODEL TIME SECTIONS DO SHOW A LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN TO FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE EAST. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS NEARLY IDENTICAL AND WILL STAY NEAR THE CONSENSUS. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
944. hurricane23
3:21 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hurricane score card note:

I have 48 bloggers listed on my chart now. I'm looking for some more, don't hesitate to tell me your numbers if you have not done so yet.

Expect the new chart this upcoming Saturday



I'll chip in :0)

Leaning towards another active Atlantic Hurricane Season. Classic Warm AMO signal with a neutral ENSO.

15-18 NS 6-8 H and 3-4 MH

Adrian
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
943. ScottLincoln
3:15 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting Waltanater:
Even if they had the information, as yonzabam implied, they would probably leave it out because it was so cold and skew their results. Anyway, this is a VERY misleading study and I don't buy it. "Hail the Fuhrer!"

Oh goodness, you're just making stuff up at this point. And you still seem to have an issue understanding the difference between local temperatures and regional/global temperatures.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
942. Gearsts
3:13 PM GMT on March 27, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hurricane score card note:

I have 48 bloggers listed on my chart now. I'm looking for some more, don't hesitate to tell me your numbers if you have not done so yet.

Expect the new chart this upcoming Saturday

14/7/4
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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