Chicago snowstorm headed toward the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:03 PM GMT on March 05, 2013

The snow has begun in Chicago, as what promises to be their biggest snowstorm of the season moves through. The fast-moving "Alberta Clipper" has already brought up to 10" of snow to Minnesota and North Dakota. These type of storms, so-named because they originate in Alberta and clip along at a fast forward speed, typically bring the Midwest moderate amounts of fluffy snow that is relatively easy to shovel. However, this Clipper is traversing through an atmosphere that is warmer than usual for these types of storms--close to the freezing point near the surface. Since warm air can hold more moisture, this Clipper is bringing heavier snowfall amounts than is usual for a Clipper, with 4 - 8" of snow expected in Chicago. The storm, dubbed Winter Storm Saturn by The Weather Channel and "Snowquester" by The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang, is expected to bring a swath of 4 - 8" of snow into the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, with the heaviest snows in excess of a foot falling in Western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. The models are still in considerable disagreement on what will happen to the storm on Wednesday, both in regards to the track and the location of the rain/snow line. I still prefer the European model's solution of a colder and more southwards-moving storm, which would likely bring Washington D.C. 4 - 8" of snow, their biggest snowstorm since January 26, 2011. There will be a sharp gradient in snowfall amounts in the region, though, due to the fact the rain/snow line will be in the area. We cannot rule out the solution provided by NOAA's SREF model, which calls for snowfall amounts closer to 15" in D.C. The Capital Weather Gang has an interesting article on historical March snowstorms in Washington D.C. In order for Snowquester/Winter Storm Saturn to crack the top-ten, it would have to dump at least 6.6" of snow on the nation's capital. The New England coast from Long Island to Southeast Massachusetts could also see heavy snows in excess of 6", though the uncertainty in snow amounts is high. There will be a very sharp gradient in the precipitation amounts, and the storm's track may keep the heaviest snows just offshore.


Figure 1. Predicted snowfall amounts from Winter Storm Saturn (AKA Snowquester) from the NWS. There is a sharp gradient in snowfall amounts near the coast, due to some of the precipitation falling as rain.

Coastal flooding a concern in the Mid-Atlantic and New England
As the storm moves off the coast on Wednesday night, winds gusting to 55 mph will build waves of up to 15' and a 2 - 4' storm surge along the coast to the north of the center, along the coasts of Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. Heavy rains will bring runoff down rivers that will act to increase water levels along the coast. The latest Forecast Discussion from the Mount Holly, NJ NWS office highlights the likelihood of moderate coastal flooding in Delaware during the high tide cycles on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. The latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model calls for a storm surge of around 3' at Lewes, Delaware on Thursday morning, though the peak surge is currently forecast to hit at low tide, which would not bring top-ten highest water level on record to the coast. Still, even moderate flooding would cause much greater erosion than usual, due to weakened state of the dunes from the pounding Hurricane Sandy gave to the coast in October. Sandy brought the 3rd highest water level on record to Lewes. Moderate flooding is also expected along large portions of the New England coast, from New York City to Boston. Should the more northerly track of the GFS and NAM models verify, Southeast Massachusetts could be looking at a dangerous coastal flooding event with impacts far worse than experienced during Winter Storm Nemo on February 9.

We'll have ongoing coverage this week of Winter Storm Saturn in our Winter Storm Section.

Jeff Masters

sundog... (linear)
sundog...
White Winter scene (mike47)
By Bayview Park Westside of Sturgeon Bay
White Winter scene

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wow!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14876
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
253 PM CST TUE MAR 5 2013

ALC051-111-123-052130-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-130305T2130Z/
ELMORE AL-RANDOLPH AL-TALLAPOOSA AL-
253 PM CST TUE MAR 5 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TALLAPOOSA...
RANDOLPH AND ELMORE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CST...

AT 252 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM WOODLAND TO DADEVILLE TO WETUMPKA...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMP HILL...ROANOKE...TALLASSEE...ECLECTIC...EMERALD MOUNTAIN...
STILL WATERS RESORT...MARTIN DAM...CRYSTAL LAKE...KENT AND REEVES
AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBER 179...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3311 8523 3311 8559 3273 8560 3270 8570
3258 8571 3258 8579 3250 8580 3240 8605
3243 8619 3250 8625 3249 8631 3244 8633
3246 8641 3264 8627 3284 8588 3311 8570
3311 8565 3318 8565 3345 8547 3349 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 277DEG 46KT 3341 8538 3286 8573
3258 8615
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 18057
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 18057
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

NAM WRF-4km simulated radar which uses precip-type shows rain/snow line very near DC 6 AM Wed morning. Link
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NAMER NAM 18Z HR 48
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 196 Comments: 63831
Quoting sonofagunn:


This is a 3rd one, probably 15 miles or so (just a guess) from the 2 in Seffner.
Wow... so strange. Anyone checking on Faults. Saw two tiny quakes this am close to S. or N. ??? Carolina. Happened I believe on Sunday. Out on the 'EPA Pollinator Summit' site today. What a waste. Monsanto, Dow and all the gang. Was NOT a Pollinator summit.... just more of their seed crap and we all need it shuved down our throats. The HONEY BEE is REALLY in deep jeopardy here in the US. Made me sick today.
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NAMER NAM 18Z HR 36
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Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Actual snow-depth thru Wed 5pm EST from NCEP 1.33 km NAM-WRF. DC < 6'' Link
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NAMER NAM 18Z HR 27
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NAMER NAM 18Z HR 18
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NAMER NAM 18Z HR 9
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Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

NCEP placed the 1.33 km "fire-weather" nest over Wash DC for 18z -- so highest resolution available weather model is in the right place.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2109
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 196 Comments: 63831
Good grief....how are we looking for totals on Long Island, NY after the change from rain to snow?
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We've dropped from 56 to 39 in a little over an hour
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Wow, that 18z NAM run is sweet!! Gives me close to 20" of snow. Probably overdone though, although not by that much since QPF seems fairly in line with other models.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 92 Comments: 8756
Quoting indianrivguy:


must be Fresh Garbage prolly need some Fresh Air


Song titles? Oh I Got A Line On You. :D
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The city itself will struggle to accumulate. Big totals (12-20") possible not far inland though. 18z NAM coming in colder than previous runs, it had been one of the warmer models, so this could spell even more southern New England snow.


how about you...I have no idea how much snow I'm getting
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14876
winter storm watches extending northeastward
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14876
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14876
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
New Hampshire...look at the pinks in the bottom... any idea for Boston?

The city itself will struggle to accumulate. Big totals (12-20") possible not far inland though. 18z NAM coming in colder than previous runs, it had been one of the warmer models, so this could spell even more southern New England snow.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 92 Comments: 8756
TWC Breaking ‏@TWCBreaking
Reports of 62-mph wind gusts and golfball size hail in parts of northeast Alabama in the past hour or so (severe t'storms
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It's 52 degrees and gorgeous out there this afternoon, so I am trying to keep up with my happy denial. However, later tonight...

MDZ003-501-502-VAZ025>031-503-504-WVZ050>053-055- 501>506-060400-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0005.130305T2300Z-130307T0500Z/
WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-
JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-
EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...
STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER ...FRONT ROYAL...
HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...
BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...
FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
248 PM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 15 INCHES. UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG
THE RIDGES AND THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR.

* TIMING...RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX OVERSPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIX WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW DURING THE EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AND THEN TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT...LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES. SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE
DRIVING EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU NEED TO TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TAKE PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. ENSURE YOU
HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR TRUNK.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE.


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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ALC027-037-051-111-123-052130-
/O.NEW.KBMX.SV.W.0024.130305T2024Z-130305T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
224 PM CST TUE MAR 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CLAY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EASTERN COOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
ELMORE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CST

* AT 224 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5
MILES WEST OF MOUNT CHEAHA TO CREWSVILLE TO 6 MILES EAST OF
BILLINGSLEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KELLYTON...ASHLAND...LINEVILLE...ALEXANDER CITY...MILLBROOK...
EQUALITY...LAKE WEDOWEE AND WETUMPKA.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBER 181...

WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BREAK LARGE TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE SOME
DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO SMALLER STRUCTURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

LAT...LON 3311 8559 3273 8560 3270 8570 3258 8571
3258 8580 3250 8580 3249 8588 3245 8589
3245 8599 3240 8605 3243 8619 3250 8625
3244 8633 3246 8641 3277 8640 3292 8620
3350 8587 3347 8585 3349 8530 3311 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 277DEG 46KT 3346 8582 3293 8609
3266 8653
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 18057
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 18057
New Hampshire...look at the pinks in the bottom... any idea for Boston?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14876
Quoting PedleyCA:
that smell


must be Fresh Garbage prolly need some Fresh Air
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DC UNDER A WARNING


...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.


Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14876
TWC Breaking ‏@TWCBreaking
National Weather Service has upgraded Washington, #DC from a winter storm watch to a winter storm warning; begins at midnight. #Saturn
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The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

RT @TWCBreaking: #Snow totals upped in #Philly, #NYC, and #Boston. 5-8" for all 3 cities. #Saturn
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2109
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14876
Chicago snow coming down heavy

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SNOW WILL WEIGH 40LBS PER SHOVEL FULL
HIGH RISK OF INJURY FROM SNOW SHOVELLING
PERSONS WITH HEART PROBLEMS SHOULD REFRAIN FROM LIFTING THE HEAVY WET SNOW
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 196 Comments: 63831
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 66218
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MJO
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STORMS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED TO THE WEST...AT LEAST
FROM A LINEAR PERSPECTIVE WITH INTERMITTENT THUNDER FROM CENTRAL
TENNESSEE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS HOUR. LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND OF MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS EARLIER PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT TOOK PLACE LOCALLY THAT HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. COULD BE THAT THESE INCREASED TEMPS
ALONG WITH CONTINUED RELATIVELY FRY MID LEVELS WILL ACT TO INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY BUT FEEL LARGER SALE FORCING WILL
EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER AND ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.


SHEAR WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH 50 TO 60 KTS OF BULK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND 300 TO 350 M2/S2 OF 0-1KM SRH. HAVE ACTUALLY SEEN MORE
SPEED SHEAR THAN DIRECTIONAL OWING TO A STORM MODE MORE LINEAR AND
MORE FAVORABLE FOR WINDS AND HAIL THUS FAR WITH SEVERAL HAIL
REPORTS ALREADY UPSTREAM. ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT A MIXED BAG WITH
WIND AND HAIL THE MOST LIKELY AND ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE WITH
STP PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 4
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 196 Comments: 63831
Washi gets her snow warning...............URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
248 PM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

DCZ001-MDZ005>007-009>011-VAZ052>056-060400-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.130305T2300Z-130307T0500Z/
/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0005.130306T0500Z-130307T0800Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...MANASSAS... MANASSAS PARK...
FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG
248 PM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

* TIMING...RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO WET SNOW FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY. SNOW TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. HEAVY
WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 66218
Just had thundersnow. I thought I heard some, checked the radar and ...Snow rates are every bit 1"/hr as of now.



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BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS FORMED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER AL DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
CONVECTIVE MODE AS THE FRONT ADVANCES E INTO GA AND WRN SC. GIVEN 40
KT OF FLOW OUT OF THE SW AT 1 KM AGL OCCURRING BENEATH AN 80 KT
MIDLEVEL WLY JET...QUASI-LINEAR STORM MODE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND INCREASING TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AT THE
SURFACE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SVR
WEATHER THREAT. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 60 KT WILL ALSO FAVOR LARGE HAIL...THROUGH MEAGER BUOYANCY
AND THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DIAMETERS MUCH
ABOVE 1 INCH. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY THE
WEAK/NARROW ZONE OF CAPE...BUT IS NON-ZERO
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG SPEED SHEAR OVER THE LOWEST FEW KM/S AGL.
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oh boy get ready new england coastline states....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 66218
COLOSSAL SATURN...please check out my newest blog

Im adding some more things
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14876
The visit by the hurricane hunter to some islands in the Caribbean as part of the annual tour before every season was canceled because of the sequestration thing.

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SLGT risk has been expanded:
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Quoting JNCali:
Ellos sólo deben escribir en español


Hard enough to understand now.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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