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The Exceptional U.S. Wildfire Season of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:11 PM GMT on December 31, 2012

The 2012 U.S. fire season was the 3rd worst in U.S. history, with 9.2 million acres burned--an area larger than the state of Maryland. Since the National Interagency Fire Center began keeping records in 1960, only two years have seen more area burned--2006, when 9.9 million acres burned, and 2007, when 9.3 million acres burned. Although the 2012 fire season was close to a record for most acreage burned, the total number of fires--55,505--was the lowest on record, going back to 1960, said scientists at a December 2012 press briefing at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. The average U.S. fire size in 2012 was the highest on record. A September 18, 2012 report, The Age of Western Wildfires, published by the non-profit research group Climate Central, found that the number of large and very large fires on Forest Service land is increasingly dramatically. Compared to the average year in the 1970s, during the past decade there were seven times as many fires larger than 10,000 acres each year, and nearly five times as many fires larger than 25,000 acres. On average, wildfires burn twice as much land area each year as they did 40 years ago, and the burn season is two and a half months longer than 40 years ago. The increase in large fires is correlated with rising temperatures and earlier snow melt due to climate change, but fire suppression policies which leave more timber to burn may also be a factor.

The Top 5 U.S. Wildfires of 2012
Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire, New Mexico: Largest fire in New Mexico history
The Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire started as two fires that merged, both caused by lightning. The Whitewater fire was first detected on May 16th, and the smaller Baldy fire was detected a few days earlier on May 9th. These fires then merged on May 24th and together burned a total of 297,845 acres until it was 100% contained on July 23th. Mid-July rain showers helped fire crew contain this fire. This fire was difficult to contain due to rugged terrain with gusty winds, and relative humidity less than 3%. The fire consumed timber, mixed conifer, poderosa pine, pinon/juniper, and grasses. The suppression costs of the Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire surpassed $23 million, according to the GACC. This is the largest fire in New Mexico history, which surpassed the previous record of 150,000 acres consumed by the Las Conchas Fire in 2011.


Figure 1. Wunderphoto of Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire submitted by AZMountaineer21.


Figure 2. Satellite image showing the complex nature of the Whitewater-Baldy fire with multiple hot spots in red outlines with multiple smoke plumes. Image courtesy of NASA's MODIS Aqua on June 7th, 2012.

Rush Fire, California: 2nd largest in California history
The Rush Fire started from lightning on Aug. 12th and burned through Aug. 30th, consuming 315,577 acres of northeastern California portions of western Nevada. The rapid and uncontrollable fire spread was due to extremely difficult terrain, gusty winds, and extremely dry grass, sagebrush, and junipers. Fire crews reported, "Live sage brush was as dry as dead sage brush." This fire was rated a major threat to federally protected wild horses, burros, and grouse by the BLM Eagle Lake Field Office. Once this fire reached into Nevada, where it burned over 43,000 acres, it threatened a major natural gas line as well as power transmission lines. This fire cost the U.S. approximately a total of $15 million. The portion of the fire in California reached 271,911 acres, and now constitutes the second largest California fire in modern history. The largest California fire remains the Cedar Fire in 2003, which consumed 273,246 acres.


Figure 3. Progression of the Rush Fire, August 12 - 20, 2012. Image courtesy of Inciweb.org, Rush Fire maps.

Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado: most expensive in Colorado history
The Waldo Canyon Fire was the most expensive wildfire in Colorado history, costing $353 million, according to the Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association. The cause of the fire is still under investigation, but investigators have determined that it was started within 3 miles of the Waldo Canyon trail head, off of U.S. 24, and was human-caused. The burn started on June 23rd and burned through July 10th, burning a total of 18,247 acres of brush, mountain shrub, oak, grass, pinion juniper, ponderosa pine, douglas fir, spruce, and limber pine. This fire was a major threat to neighborhoods and homes, as it started only four miles from Colorado Springs. Approximately 347 homes were burned and 2 people were killed by the Waldo Canyon Fire. Due to the proximity of this fire to nearby neighborhoods, over 32,000 residents were evacuated.


Figure 4. Image showing how close the Waldo Canyon fire was to homes in Colorado Springs. AP photo.


Figure 5. Flames from the Waldo Canyon Fire rolling down a hillside approaching a Colorado Springs neighborhood. AP photo.

High Park Fire, Colorado: 2nd largest in Colorado history
The High Park Fire was caused by lightning and first detected on June 9th in the mountains west of Fort Collins. The fire burned 87,284 acres of timber, grass, and brush until it was 100% contained on July 1st, making this the second largest fire in Colorado history. The largest Colorado fire remains the Hayman Fire, which burned 137,760 acres in 2002. The High Park Fire killed one person, and was briefly the most destructive fire in Colorado history, after destroying 259 homes. However, this record was quickly surpassed by the Waldo Canyon Fire just a few days later.


Figure 6. Plane throwing fire retardant onto the High Park Fire. AP photo.


Figure 7. The huge plume of the High Park Fire seen from a neighborhood. Wunderphoto submitted by turbguy.

Chips Fire, California: $55 million in suppression costs
California's Chips Fire began on July 29th and burned a total of 75,431 acres in northern California, including 48,297 acres of the Plumas National Forest, 18,374 acres of Lassen National Forest, and 8,762 acres of privately owned land. The cause of the fire is unknown. The fire forced hikers on the Pacific Crest Trail to bypass this section by hiking Hwy 70/89 or by taking a bus and skipping this section all together. The fire was contained Aug. 31st, with a total of $55 million in suppression costs. Mainly timber was consumed in this fire.


Figure 8. Satellite image of fires in northern California on August 11 2012, including the Chips fire. Image courtesy of NASA's MODIS Aqua on August 11, 2012.


Figure 9. Burn scar from the Chips Fire. Burned vegetation appears in red, unburned areas are in green. Image courtesy of NASA's Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite on September 1, 2012.

Western U.S. wildfires expected to increase due to climate change
Expect a large increase in fires over much of the globe late this century due to climate change, says research published this June in the Journal Ecosphere. Using fire models driven by output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report, the researchers, led by Max Moritz of UC Berkeley, found that 38% of the planet should see increases in fire activity over the next 30 years. This figure increases to 62% by the end of the century. However, in many regions where precipitation is expected to increase--particularly in the tropics--there should be decreased fire activity. The scientists predicted that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability over the next 30 years, and 20% will see decreases by the end of the century. The models do not agree on how fire danger will change for a large portion of the planet--54% for the period 2010 - 2039, and 18% for the period 2070 - 2099. Six key factors were found to control fire probabilities in the models. Most important was how much vegetation there was (NPP, Net Primary Productivity). Three other factors, about half as important, were precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of warmest month, and the difference between summer and winter temperature. Two other minor factors were mean temperature of wettest month, and annual precipitation. The authors found that future fire occurrence appears to primarily be a function of available moisture in many areas, and that the expected global increase in temperature of 3.5°C used in the models will not become the single dominant control on global wildfire. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Related: Wildfires in the U.S. will be at least twice as destructive by 2050, burning around 20 million acres nationwide each year, according to a federal report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2012.


Figure 10. Predicted fractional change in fire probability for the period 2010 - 2039 (top) and 2070 - 2099 (bottom) for the average of sixteen climate models used for the 2007 IPCC report. For the 2010 - 2039 period, the models agree that 8% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 38% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 54%. For the 2070 - 2099 period, the models agree that 20% of Earth will see decreases in fire probability, 62% will see increases, and the models are too uncertain to tell for the other 18%. Image credit: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Moritz et al., 2012, from the journal Ecosphere.


Coolest fire video of 2012: A fire tornado in Curtin Springs, Australia, from mid-September, 2012. NOAA comments: "While rare, fire tornadoes (also known as fire whirls) generally form when superheated air near the surface of a large fire zone rises rapidly in an airmass where sufficient horizontal or vertical vorticity (spin in the atmosphere) is also present. Much like a dust devil or whirlwind, the rapidly rising air above a wildfire can accelerate and turn the local vorticity into a tight vertical vortex, now composed of fire instead of dust."

Kari Kiefer and Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1005. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:33 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
You know, I thought the division between the north and the south disappeared, uh, 150+ years ago. It's a shame adults still act so childish.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1004. biff4ugo
8:32 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Howdy,

Yes, I got a message to stop running a script on here too, that was slowing me down.

Lake Okeechobee is making its own daily wind vortex.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1003. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:19 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1002. Patrap
8:17 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Climate change may drastically alter region

By Paul Gabrielsen

Santa Cruz Sentinel

Posted: 01/02/2013 04:33:22 PM Climate change may drastically alter region

By Paul Gabrielsen

Santa Cruz Sentinel

Posted: 01/02/2013 04:33:22 PM PST


Lake Tahoe is "the fairest picture the whole earth affords," Mark Twain once wrote. Its crystal blue waters, surrounded by stunning snowy mountains, define one of California's crown jewels as an American landmark. It attracts 3 million skiers, boaters, campers, hikers and other visitors each year.

But it could look very different in 100 years.

Climate change could profoundly affect the Tahoe area, scientists say, taking the snow out of the mountains and the blue out of the water.

What's ahead for region
Last winter's ski season showed a glimpse of what a future, warmer Tahoe may look like. Snow didn't start falling in the mountains until January. The California Ski Industry Association reported that 25 percent fewer skiers visited the Sierra last season. For a region that boasts a $5 billion year-round economy, that hurts.

New climate models show that in a worst-case scenario average temperatures in the Tahoe area could rise as much as 9 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. That's equivalent to moving Lake Tahoe from its current elevation of 6,200 feet above sea level to 3,700 feet, climate scientists report in a special upcoming January issue of the journal Climatic Change. That's as high as the peak of Contra Costa County's Mount Diablo, which gets only an inch of snow a year.

Simulations also suggest that the percent of precipitation that falls as snow may decrease to as little as 10 percent by the end of the century. It's now 30 percent. In time, the snow line will move up the mountains, said Robert Coats of UC Davis, a co-editor of the special issue.
Tahoe ski resorts could feel a big pinch from a changing climate. "They're pretty concerned, and they'd better be," Coats said.

Resorts higher up in the mountains, such as Heavenly, Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows, will likely keep their snow, he said. "In fact they may actually benefit in the short run as the snow disappears from lower elevations."

Lower resorts face issues
Homewood Ski Resort, a lower-elevation resort without an extensive snowmaking system, is well aware of the threat of climate change. Last season, Homewood didn't open until Dec. 14, said resort spokesman Paul Raymore, and it wasn't able to open any chair lifts until January. More winters such as last year's would be disastrous. "We do rely on Mother Nature and what she provides in terms of natural snowfall," Raymore said.

While doing little to curb global climate change, the resort does encourage skiers to use public transit, now offering $5 off lift tickets for those who do. "We have a vested interest in ensuring that the mountains stay cold," Raymore said.

To be sure, people should keep in mind that the climate models aren't necessarily forecasts, said Michael Dettinger, a climate modeler at Scripps Institute of Oceanography in San Diego and one of the authors of the special Climatic Change issue. "They're what-if predictions," he said, adding that scientists can't say yet which scenario is most likely to unfold.

But even under the most optimistic conditions, Dettinger said, climate change will become a problem for the Tahoe region to deal with on the same scale as other pressing environmental issues, such as the invasive Asian clam, which scientists have been battling for a decade.

It's not just the mountains that would look different in a warmer climate, according to Climatic Change. The worst-case scenarios also predict a devastating ecological collapse of the lake and loss of its signature clarity and blue color.

Keeping water mixed
Many lakes undergo a process every year, or every few years, that keeps the lake water well-mixed. As water temperature changes through the seasons, it creates circulation in the lake. The warm water on top of the lake in summer cools off in the fall and sinks, mixing with cold deep water. In a warmer climate, the surface water won't cool off enough to mix with deeper water.

If mixing doesn't happen, then oxygen from the surface doesn't reach the lake floor. Without oxygen, the chemistry of the lake floor changes, and nutrients like phosphorus and nitrogen are released into the water. Excess nutrients lead to algal blooms which, as any swimming pool owner knows, turn the water from clear blue to a murky green.

It's a serious threat, Climatic Change authors say, "to the characteristics of the lake that are most highly valued."

"The lake more or less crashes," Dettinger said. "It goes to a bad place and doesn't return."

The Tahoe Regional Planning Agency's job is to respond to today's challenges and anticipate tomorrow's in partnership with the U.S. Forest Service and city, county and state governments. The agency, created by California and Nevada in 1969, regulates every development in the Tahoe area to ensure sustainable growth.

Threats to the lake's ecosystem -- including climate change -- pushed the agency to update its regional plan, which had been in place since 1987, said agency spokesman Jeff Cowen. The new 2012 regional plan focuses on restoring lake water quality and redeveloping "green" town centers, Cowen said. It also calls for updates every four years and includes a "sustainable communities strategy" to meet California's standards for greenhouse gas emission reduction in the region.

Some years wet, some dry
Frank Gehrke, a snow surveyor for California's Department of Water Resources, has been working in the Sierra for more than 30 years. He's seen his share of wet years and dry years. "The overall trend is overwhelmed by the difference from year to year," he said.

Although last winter's ski season was hard on the resorts, the previous season boasted early heavy snow -- and skiing lasted until the Fourth of July.

Now that the best- and worst-case scenarios have been modeled, scientists will now refine their models further to pin down the most likely climate scenario. "I think it's going to be pretty hard to put a date on when there will be no snowfall at all in the Tahoe Basin," Coats said. "I think that may be pretty far out in the future."

This season is off to a good start. Homewood opened before Halloween, thanks to early snowstorms. But good years come and go. And Mark Twain's vision of Lake Tahoe may not last forever.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1001. 1900hurricane
8:13 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
The first mesoscale discussion of the year!



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CST THU JAN 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM THROUGH SWRN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 031810Z - 032315Z

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO
1 INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SRN NM INTO WEST TEXAS. TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO
DEVELOP FARTHER SWD TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA OF SW TX LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AREAS OF SNOW WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF LOCALLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM
SRN NM THROUGH WRN AND SWRN TX. THE PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO. THE 12Z RAOB FROM
EL PASO INDICATED AN UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN 600 AND 400 MB
SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY OCCURRING. AN UPPER
JET STREAK LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO WILL SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE BIG
BEND THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ASCENT
WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...LIKELY AUGMENTING SNOWFALL RATES
FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX INTO THE BIG BEND AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..DIAL.. 01/03/2013


ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 32180728 33020538 32700286 32030154 31140126 30170254
29500350 30740507 31690661 32180728
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1000. Patrap
8:11 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
In Farewell Speech, House Republican Lists Climate Change As A Top Priority

By Rebecca Leber on Jan 3, 2013 at 8:59 am


During his farewell speech Tuesday, outgoing House Rules Committee Chairman David Dreier (R-CA) listed climate change as a top problem facing the country — a rare moment when a Republican leader in office openly acknowledged the need for climate action.

Taking to the House floor, Dreier said climate change “is a fact of life” that must be confronted, and said it should be an imperative on par with the economy and gun control for his party:

DREIER: Now, Mr. Speaker, we know it’s far from perfect, but I hope that this bipartisan agreement can lay the foundation for continued work to address the tremendous challenges that we face as a Nation. Millions of Americans are out of work. The national debt as a percentage of gross domestic product is too high. Upheaval exists in nearly every region across the globe. Education and immigration reform must happen. The potential for a crippling cyberattack continues to be a threat. Climate change is a fact of life. And most recently, Mr. Speaker, our families are reeling from the tragedy of Newtown.

Though Dreier has had a poor voting record on climate issues, his congressional climate denier colleagues often still need reminder of the basic science.
President Obama also mentioned climate change on Tuesday in the context of the fiscal cliff. During remarks on the last-minute deal, Obama named his administration’s next priorities, which included “protecting our planet from the harmful effects of climate change



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
999. yonzabam
7:55 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Actually, it happens on any discussion site where there are politically sensitive topics being debated. Sometimes it is innocent, but I do believe that PR outfits actually pay people to slog blogs with disinformation, obfuscating issues that their clients are sensitive about.

Just my opinion. I could defend it with some links ... but search out info yourself, if in doubt and you care, and see what you come up with.


I see a lot of it on the UK Telegraph climate articles comments. Far more than on here. I think the anti AGW posters on here are mostly genuine, if (imo) mistaken.

The deniers on the Telegraph site are probably a motley crew, but I'm convinced many are Internet anarchists with an agenda to discredit 'the establishment'.

They seem to be operating from a manual, all claiming the same things, like 'there hasn't been any warming since 1998', 'it's the sun', 'climate has always changed', 'Al Gore has bought a beachfront house, so he obviously doesn't think sea levels are rising', 'the hockey stick graph is a hoax' etc.

Some are conspiracy theorists, who think the moon landings were faked, and some are probably people with no agenda, who simply don't believe in man made global warming.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
998. Minnemike
7:45 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting indianrivguy:


Happy new year Mike. New year, new baby.. I hope this is your best year "so far"!
little dude is great, thanks for the New Year's wishes... hope you have yourself a great 2013!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
997. weathermanwannabe
7:44 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
General: During winter El Nino episodes (top map) feature a strong jet stream and storm track across the southern part of the United States, and less storminess and milder-than-average conditions across the North. La Nina episodes (bottom map) feature a very wave-like jet stream flow over the United States and Canada, with colder and stormier than average conditions across the North, and warmer and less stormy conditions across the South.

From the NCEP general discussion page

Link

Stands to reason that an Enso Neutral Winter will result in a "down-the-middle average" for the jet stream.......Also have to see how this plays out in terms of rain-drought issues once we get to the Spring-Summer as between the mid-west bread basket region of the country and the southern sections in the SE....They need lots of rain for the Missisippi headwaters and Delta region this year because of navigation issues and the very low water levels in the River.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
996. DavidHOUTX
7:43 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Here is the 850

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
995. FtMyersgal
7:42 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
"
946. FtMyersgal 5:44 PM GMT on January 03, 2013 Hide this comment.
I apologize in advance this is off topic. I've had to revert back to the old WU site because the new WU site is not friendly to my computer. My computer is freezing up on the new site. It appears there is a script running that is slowing my computer. Anybody having this issue? Or know how to fix it? Internet access is IE (forced to use it at work :( )"


Yep... lots of problems, many kinds, trying to use this site. It happens across browsers, is intermittent, and varies all the time. I assume they are always under attack like any busy website.


Thanks for the reply Montana and AtHome. It sure is annoying and makes me have to re-log into other internet programs that may have been open. Can't admin do something about it?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
994. DavidHOUTX
7:41 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z ECMWF has a big artic blast for most of U.S in the next ten days.



You do not see that very often
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
993. indianrivguy
7:35 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting Minnemike:
it was probably the B&N links..


Happy new year Mike. New year, new baby.. I hope this is your best year "so far"!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
992. Tropicsweatherpr
7:35 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
12z ECMWF has a big artic blast for most of U.S in the next ten days.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
991. MontanaZephyr
7:34 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting yonzabam:


Neither is ganging up on a person because he has a low tolerance threshold for people who base their arguments on an immature and irrational 'I don't like it, so I'm not having it' premise.

Nea hasn't said anything today that would merit a ban. Several oversensitive posters have taken unwarranted offence at his 'put down' responses.

Get used to it. He isn't about to change, and more power to him. Sometimes, being agreeable isn't a virtue.


Actually, it happens on any discussion site where there are politically sensitive topics being debated. Sometimes it is innocent, but I do believe that PR outfits actually pay people to slog blogs with disinformation, obfuscating issues that their clients are sensitive about.

Just my opinion. I could defend it with some links ... but search out info yourself, if in doubt and you care, and see what you come up with.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
990. Minnemike
7:33 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
it was probably the B&N links..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
989. MontanaZephyr
7:27 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
"
946. FtMyersgal 5:44 PM GMT on January 03, 2013 Hide this comment.
I apologize in advance this is off topic. I've had to revert back to the old WU site because the new WU site is not friendly to my computer. My computer is freezing up on the new site. It appears there is a script running that is slowing my computer. Anybody having this issue? Or know how to fix it? Internet access is IE (forced to use it at work :( )"


Yep... lots of problems, many kinds, trying to use this site. It happens across browsers, is intermittent, and varies all the time. I assume they are always under attack like any busy website.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
988. dabirds
7:25 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Well, so much for not getting above freezing around StL, they're already at 39, 37 here. Still have 29 for high on page I referred to earlier today, but noticed write-up below mentioned mid 30s. Not sure if that was there earlier or was redone. P-D still says 33 as high for StL, so tend to believe it was redone. Don't know if they expected clouds to hold temps down or what, but sun is shining brightly and with these temps I expect most of our light snow cover will be disappearing. Should help the Mississippi a little.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
987. NttyGrtty
7:25 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Dude, stop feeding the monkey! All he'll do is poo in his hand and throw it at you like he always does...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
986. yonzabam
7:21 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Thats not fair!


Neither is ganging up on a person because he has a low tolerance threshold for people who base their arguments on an immature and irrational 'I don't like it, so I'm not having it' premise.

Nea hasn't said anything today that would merit a ban. Several oversensitive posters have taken unwarranted offence at his 'put down' responses.

Get used to it. He isn't about to change, and more power to him. Sometimes, being agreeable isn't a virtue.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
985. etxwx
7:19 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Good afternoon everyone, a friend just sent me this pic from El Paso. (yup, we Texans do get excited about snow)



I hope we get a bit more rain out of the next system here in the eastern part of the state. Like Rookie said, I don't necessarily want severe weather...but drought is lingering severe weather in its own right. I'd rather get it over quick and clean up than watch things die slowly.

That last system showed a large green blotch (I'm not "blob" qualified) right over this area, yet no rain. Apparently the moisture never made it to the ground. Dang, that was frustrating.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
984. Some1Has2BtheRookie
7:17 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting nymore:
What do you mean. I said I believe AGWT (CC) is a part of it.

By human interaction I meant more people going to these places and more communities encroaching more and more in these areas.

I don't know or understand what will make some of you happy, even when you say you believe AGWT (CC) is a part of it but question a item put out as fact when no other facts are looked at makes you a bad person. Than I guess I am a bad person for not swallowing hook, line and sinker everything someone claims CC is the root cause of.


I did not question your stance on the AGWT, nymore. I was merely trying to point out that the other sources for increased and more intense fires that you pointed out are also anthropogenic sources. I was not debating your talking points. I was merely pointing out an aspect that you seem to have missed.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
983. FunnelVortex
7:17 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting TomballTXPride:
There you go. And just like that. Neapolitan Banned.

Link


Enough people finally got the guts to report him.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
982. FunnelVortex
7:15 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
GFS at 150 hours.



Our next big storm?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
980. weathermanwannabe
7:11 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Good Afternoon. Here is the Aussie Mets Enso Outlook for today; still in Enso Neutral mode. This will have an impact on the Spring severe weather season for the US; some of the winter fronts not sweeping as far south into the Gulf as we usually see during El Nino years.........Also have to see whether this will persist into our Summer or transition over towards La Nina conditions for the peak of H-Season (for another potential record number of storms for 4 consecutive years)...Will have to wait on see what happens in the coming months on both counts. Have a Great Day.

ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the tropical Pacific
Issued on Thursday 3 January 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) persist in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the tropical Pacific is likely to remain neutral at least until the southern hemisphere autumn.

Climate indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remain within neutral values. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are generally close to the long-term average. Atmospheric indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness near the Date Line have fluctuated in recent weeks, but generally remained within the neutral range. The SOI is expected to ease further towards zero over the coming fortnight as the influence of the tropical weather system which spawned TC Evan is removed from the 30-day average. Large fluctuations in the SOI over summer due to tropical weather systems are not uncommon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
978. nymore
7:10 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Oh, but you missed one key point, nymore. What does the "A" stand for in the acronym "AGWT"?
What do you mean. I said I believe AGWT (CC) is a part of it.

By human interaction I meant more people going to these places and more communities encroaching more and more in these areas.

I don't know or understand what will make some of you happy, even when you say you believe AGWT (CC) is a part of it but question an item put out as fact when no other facts are looked at makes you a bad person. Than I guess I am a bad person for not swallowing hook, line and sinker everything someone claims CC is the root cause of.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
977. FunnelVortex
7:04 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting RTSplayer:


I don't think paid members get banned.

I could be wrong, but they seem to get away with just about anything. Meanwhile, non-paid members regularly get 4 hour bans for what is usually a far smaller infraction.

Here's how it works:

If you own a major web site, you want to censor/ban anyone who takes a stance on anything that might be offensive to a simple majority, in order to please the maximum number of people. After all, you make money in only two basic ways: paid memberships, and internet search ads/banner ads. However, banning a paid member would look pretty bad for PR as well, so they get away with a lot more than non-paid members. Plus it could cause legal conflicts in some cases where some members have already paid for several years worth of membership. In such cases it's probably not even legal to ban them, without refunding their money.


Hopefully I won't be banned for discussing the politics of banning...


Thats not fair!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
976. RTSplayer
7:02 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting FunnelVortex:


What was that for?

I come to the forums in a good mood and you just insult me?

How do you get away with this behavior?


I don't think paid members get banned.

I could be wrong, but they seem to get away with just about anything. Meanwhile, non-paid members regularly get 4 hour bans for what is usually a far smaller infraction.

Here's how it works:

If you own a major web site, you want to censor/ban anyone who takes a stance on anything that might be offensive to a simple majority, in order to please the maximum number of people. After all, you make money in only two basic ways: paid memberships, and internet search ads/banner ads. However, banning a paid member would look pretty bad for PR as well, so they get away with a lot more than non-paid members. Plus it could cause legal conflicts in some cases where some members have already paid for several years worth of membership. In such cases it's probably not even legal to ban them, without refunding their money.


Hopefully I won't be banned for discussing the politics of banning...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
975. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:58 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (T1301)
3:00 AM JST January 4 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sulu Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Sonamu (1002 hPa) located at 8.5N 117.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 18 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 7.8N 112.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 7.1N 109.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 6.7N 107.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
974. LargoFl
6:55 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
973. FunnelVortex
6:54 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, my apologies. Perhaps to avoid this happening again, you should maybe preface your don't-anyone-answer-this comments with, "Though this sentence ends with a question mark, it's really more of a statement, so no response is necessary."

I can see I'm going to be forced to send out more copies of "Internet Forums for Dummies".

;-)


What was that for?

I come to the forums in a good mood and you just insult me?

How do you get away with this behavior?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
972. LargoFl
6:53 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
971. 1900hurricane
6:52 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
There is a really cool upper ridge in the Montana area. The turning associated with it makes it look kind of like a cyclone turning the wrong way!



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
970. CaicosRetiredSailor
6:52 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Why should Academics get involved in outreach?

...
There is, let's face it, a lot of pretty terrible science reporting out there. There's an absolute ton of well meaning but incorrect coverage of science by various people and yes, a shed load of not well meaning, but downright insidious and malicious interpretations of science by those who wish to undermine research on political or theological grounds. Correcting this material, providing the real data and evidence behind it is critical to showing what science is and what it means and preventing (or at least minimising) the use of non-science and pseudo-science arguments against proper scientific studies and research, and of course educating people as to how to separate the two.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/lost-worlds/201 3/jan/02/dinosaurs-fossils
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
969. LargoFl
6:51 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
968. LargoFl
6:50 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


I think You will get rain
thanks, sure look like its heading my way
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
967. VR46L
6:49 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
Overcast but not a drop so far,something in the gulf though.......


I think You will get rain
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
966. LargoFl
6:48 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Overcast but not a drop so far,something in the gulf though.......
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
965. VR46L
6:48 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Tampa Radar

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
964. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:47 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
CYCLONE TROPICAL DUMILE (05-20122013)
22:00 PM RET January 3 2013
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Dumile (968 hPa) located at 23.3S 54.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 14 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 130 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 25.5S 54.4E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 27.4S 55.7E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 32.8S 62.8E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 38.6S 72.2E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
======================
Microwave from this evening show the best ever presentation of Dumile (slight eastwards tilt of the vertical structure however). 37 ghz imagery depict a contracting raw microwave ... that is usually a sign of intensification. Therefore, intensity is raised at 70 kt... which is on line with ADT.

Recent microwave fix suggest a south southwards bend occurred on the track this evening... but the long term motion is still a general southwards motion. Dumile keeps on a regular and rapid southwards track undergoing the steering influence of the mid levels ridge existing in the east. Tomorrow, the system should progressively curve south-eastward ahead of a mid-lat trough before evacuation towards the mid-latitude Saturday.

Northwesterly upper level vertical wind shear should progressively strengthen aloft, associated with cooler sea surface temperature underneath... and extratropical transition is expected to begin before Saturday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
963. PedleyCA
6:46 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Very testy bunch in here this morning.

currently 62.8 forecast for 66.0, Yesterdays temps 48.6/65.9.....

Have A Nice Day All....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
962. VR46L
6:39 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
A bit of a pulse of rain heading towards Central Florida

Loop Embedded Gulf of Mexico Funktop

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
961. Some1Has2BtheRookie
6:38 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting muddertracker:
Boy..it got deep in here in a hurry..I picked the wrong day to not wear my boots!


It might get too deep for just boots. Do you have any of these?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
960. AtHomeInTX
6:37 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Sticks head in looks around and decides its not safe.........


Lol. Doing a quick drop in myself. Hope everyone's 2013 is going well so far.

I have the same problem with the script error on WU and I'm using Firefox.

It is nice to see the sun shining again here after the gloom.

And I agree, Rookie. Having been through other severe weather, there was something very unsettling about the drought. There is literally nothing you can do!

Have a good day all. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
959. ArkWeather
6:36 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Probable need to watch the UKMET closely for this storm. The last storm in the area on Christmas was nailed by the UKMET according to my local NWS. So I will be looking at more, rather than ignore it as I usually do.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
958. 1900hurricane
6:35 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
12Z ECMWF shows the same cut-off solution and if there is any change, it is that it depicts the cutoff even stronger this run.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
957. Some1Has2BtheRookie
6:34 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting nymore:
Dr. Masters:

I notice in your linked piece to Climate Central the article only mentions AGWT (CC) in its piece, with no mention of forestry policies or human interaction taken into account.

Here is a Link looking into wildfires

This puts the wildfire issue in easily digested terms and mainly points the finger at the way we have handled fire in the past and why policies have to change or the issue will just get worse with time.

BTW if you read the article linked above you will notice why Climate Central picked the 70's to start their calculations, this is when policy changes allowed more fires to burn naturally.

EDIT: FWIW I do believe climate has effected it to, but not nearly as much as our own policies.


Oh, but you missed one key point, nymore. What does the "A" stand for in the acronym "AGWT"?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
956. Some1Has2BtheRookie
6:26 PM GMT on January 03, 2013
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I'm quite interested in what the ECMWF shows on its 12Z run. That trough doesn't have the same dynamics that the cut-off solution has, which would mean lesser rainfall totals (bad), but also less chance for severe weather (good for most, but not for me if I end up chasing). However, at this point with the drought, would people be more willing to accept the severe weather threat if it meant greater drought relief?


Trust me, if it takes some severe weather to break the drought, then bring it on. I have been through hurricanes and last year's drought was far more worrisome. You watch your trees and yard die and no idea when it will end.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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