Great Drought of 2012 continuing into 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on December 28, 2012

Rain and snow from the massive winter storm that swept across the nation over the past week put only a slight dent in the Great Drought of 2012, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report. The area of Iowa in extreme or exceptional drought fell 9 percentage points to 32 percent, thanks to widespread precipitation amounts of 0.5" - 1.5". However, the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought remained virtually unchanged from the previous week, at 61.8%. According to NOAA's monthly State of the Drought report, the 61.8% of the U.S. covered by drought this week was also what we had during July, making the 2012 drought the greatest U.S. drought since the Dust Bowl year of 1939. (During December of 1939, 62.1% of the U.S. was in drought; the only year with more of the U.S. in drought was 1934.) The Great Drought of 2012 is about to become the Great Drought of 2012 - 2013, judging by the latest 15-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model. There is a much below-average chance of precipitation across the large majority of the drought region through the second week of January, and these dry conditions will potentially cause serious trouble for barge traffic on the Mississippi River by the second week of January. The river level at St. Louis is currently -3.6', which is the 9th lowest level of the past 100 years. The latest NOAA river level forecast calls for the river to fall below -5' by January 4. This would be one of the five lowest water levels on record for St. Louis. At this water level, the river's depth will fall to 9' at Thebes, Illinois, which is the threshold for closing the river to barge traffic. The Army Corps of Engineers is working to dredge the river to allow barge traffic to continue if the river falls below this level, but it is uncertain if this will be enough to make a difference, unless we get some significant January precipitation in the Upper Mississippi watershed. The river is predicted to set a new all-time low by January 13 (Figure 4.)


Figure 1. The December 25, 2012 U.S. Drought Monitor showed that approximately 62% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought.



Figure 2. Predicted 7-day precipitation for the period ending on Friday, January 4. Very few regions of the main U.S. drought area are predicted to receive as much as 0.5" of precipitation (dark green color.) Image credit: NOAA.

Long-term drought outlook
NOAA's December 20 Seasonal Drought Outlook called for drought to persist over at least 80% of the U.S. drought area through the end of March. I don't see any signs of a shift in the fundamental large-scale atmospheric flow patterns during the past few weeks, or in the model forecasts for the coming weeks, and it is good bet that drought will be a huge concern as we enter spring. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts an increased chance of drier than average conditions over southwestern portions of the drought region during the coming three months. In general, droughts are more likely in the Central U.S. when warmer than average ocean temperatures prevail in the tropical Atlantic, with cooler than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific (La Niña-like conditions.) This is the current situation, though the equatorial tropical Pacific is only slightly cooler than average (0.2°C below average as of December 24). Most of the Midwest needs 3 - 9" of precipitation to pull out of drought.


Figure 3. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas need the most rain, 9 - 15".


Figure 4. The latest NOAA river level forecast calls for the Mississippi River to fall below -5' at St. Louis by January 4. At this level, the river may close to barge traffic due to low water. By January 13, the river is expected to fall to its lowest level on record, -6.2'. The record was set in January 1940, after the great Dust Bowl droughts of the 1930s.


Figure 5. This Nov. 28, 2012 photo provided by The United States Coast Guard shows a WWII minesweeper on the Mississippi River near St. Louis, Missouri. The minesweeper, once moored along the Mississippi River as a museum at St. Louis before it was torn away by floodwaters in 1993, is normally completely under water. However, it has become visible--rusted but intact--due to near-record low river levels on the Mississippi. (AP Photo/United States Coast Guard, Colby Buchanan)

Links:
My post on Lessons from 2012: Droughts, not Hurricanes, are the Greater Danger discussed how drought is our greatest threat from climate change.

Ricky Rood blogs about the Dust Bowl

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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wind shear is runing way be low norml for this time of year will need too watch this for a early start too hurricane season


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Graupel

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Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 7058
Let the Four Winds Blow
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Wow, what a beautiful storm! JTWC has it up to 80kts, forecast to peak at 100kts:

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Hey guys I'm sorry I have not been on for a long time I been extremely busy
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We actually just got graupel!
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Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 7058

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Not outside,,in me head a lil maybe.




I'll drink to that.
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Quoting bappit:
From Houston-Galveston discussion:

GOING INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST GETS MORE INTERESTING WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE PER THE ECMWF AND A RAPIDLY SATURATING COLUMN THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MAY ARISE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...GFS IS WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. NOT QUITE WILLING TO BITE OFF ON THE GFS YET SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF RAIN GOING IN THE FORECAST BUT IT COULD BUST BIG BOTH WAYS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. STAY TUNED.

Not quite cold enough this past run to personally give me some snow, but it is close.



However, something to keep in mind is that the the current weather/jet pattern seems very volatile (and almost El-Nino like lately) and forecasts in the mid-range seem to be changing on a dime. Just a few days ago, it looked like most of Texas could be in store for a multi-inch rain event for the majority of this coming week from a cut-off low that no model is now showing.
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Quoting pcola57:


Moanin' Pat..

Any Fog?


G' morning.

Not outside,,in me head a lil maybe.

: )


Severe clear,cold and windy now.
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Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 7058
New Orleans Weather at a Glance
Weather Station - Report

Uptown, New Orleans


Overcast
Temperature
46.9 °F
Feels Like 44 °F
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I guess we'll need to put an extra log on da fire tonight P'57!


Yes we will.. :)
Too bad the precip. in the form of snow didn't time out..
I know you want EPIC though.LOL.
Oh well more winter to go..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 7058
I guess we'll need to put an extra log on da fire tonight P'57!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I bottomed out a little while ago at 43.6F on my PWS.

Up a degree since then.


I don't have a PWS myself..
Wish I did..
I'll re-post the NWS product instead of the WU version for clarity purposes..
They include West Pensacola as well
I believe your in Navy point area..

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
425 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2012

...WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND AN EXITING
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-2918 30-
/O.UPG.KMOB.FZ.A.0003.121230T0700Z-121230T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.FZ.W.0003.121230T0600Z-121230T1400Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENV ILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT...
WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE(me)...JAY...PACE...
MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOL E...EGLIN AFB...
WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...
MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
425 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
SUNDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURE...LOWS 23 TO 30 DEGREES WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AND COULD INJURE PETS AND SENSITIVE PLANTS THAT
ARE LEFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS...NEW GROWTH...AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 7058
I bottomed out a little while ago at 43.6F on my PWS.

Up a degree since then.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all and good evening to Aussie.

Interesting system in the mediterranean sea that may have some tropical look to it.



Link


Interesting, rare to get one in the Mediterranean so late in the year. Raises the question if this is actually a tropical cyclone, instead of a polar low. I recall there was one that was actually declared while active a 'tropical storm', Tropical Storm 01M
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Quoting hericane96:
yea ive been watching the models the past to days it could have the right set up for some snow. time will tell.



Bring it all the way across the north gulf coast.


I want EPIC!

'Course, I'm kinda goofy like that.
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yea ive been watching the models the past to days it could have the right set up for some snow. time will tell.
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Quoting bappit:
From Houston-Galveston discussion:

GOING INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST GETS MORE INTERESTING WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE PER THE ECMWF AND A RAPIDLY SATURATING COLUMN THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MAY ARISE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...GFS IS WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. NOT QUITE WILLING TO BITE OFF ON THE GFS YET SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF RAIN GOING IN THE FORECAST BUT IT COULD BUST BIG BOTH WAYS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. STAY TUNED.
Quoting bappit:
From Houston-Galveston discussion:

GOING INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST GETS MORE INTERESTING WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE PER THE ECMWF AND A RAPIDLY SATURATING COLUMN THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MAY ARISE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...GFS IS WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. NOT QUITE WILLING TO BITE OFF ON THE GFS YET SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF RAIN GOING IN THE FORECAST BUT IT COULD BUST BIG BOTH WAYS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. STAY TUNED.
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Quoting emcf30:
Test

It worked :o)
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Test
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Quoting bappit:
From Houston-Galveston discussion:

GOING INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST GETS MORE INTERESTING WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE PER THE ECMWF AND A RAPIDLY SATURATING COLUMN THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MAY ARISE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...GFS IS WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. NOT QUITE WILLING TO BITE OFF ON THE GFS YET SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF RAIN GOING IN THE FORECAST BUT IT COULD BUST BIG BOTH WAYS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. STAY TUNED.

As Long as it does not bring anymore Tornados here to Mobile Al then I'm ok with the Rain or Snow for that matter....



Taco :o)
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Ethereal
Steel
Slotcars
Evermore
Flow
And
Melt
Only
Under
Stress

That is, sometimes one must step outside his comfort zone to gain understanding.

Have a good one.
Quoting RTSplayer:
178:

Mythbusters proved that was wrong by experiment.

They found without question that running caused them to get wetter compared to a fast walk, given the exact same flow rate.

You can draw anything on paper, but the real world physics rarely follows text book physics exactly.

In fact, in the summary, it turns out they got twice as wet when running as walking, given identical simulated rain conditions, with and without wind...

Mythbusters Running in the Rain Reduces Getting Wet: Busted

Obviously at some point of ridiculous distance or ridiculous rainfall rate you will get saturated either way.

This was done with simulated 2 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates.
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From Houston-Galveston discussion:

GOING INTO THURSDAY THE FORECAST GETS MORE INTERESTING WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE PER THE ECMWF AND A RAPIDLY SATURATING COLUMN THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MAY ARISE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...GFS IS WARMER AND MUCH DRIER. NOT QUITE WILLING TO BITE OFF ON THE GFS YET SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF RAIN GOING IN THE FORECAST BUT IT COULD BUST BIG BOTH WAYS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE. STAY TUNED.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 6898
Good Morning Everybody :o)

Just checking in and wanted to wish all my Weather Friends a Safe and Happy New Year....

Taco :o)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:


Wow, impressive...
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252. VR46L
I see two potential areas of interest coming off the Pacific that should make for some intesting weather ...


RETGURS IR SAT GFT

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Quoting hericane96:
just for fun look what i found the living barbie.
Someone needs to give that girl a peanutbutter sandwich or something to put a little meat on her bones
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249. VR46L
Morning Folks!!!

Penn ewall surface pressure and IR Sat

Link Embedded



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Quoting LargoFl:
OH WOW..look at the temps tonight in the panhandle...


Freezing down to the coast!
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247. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA, CATEGORY TWO (03U)
10:00 PM EST December 29 2012
======================================

At 9:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Freda (980 hPa) located at 12.7S 160.1E or 365 km south of Honiara and 1600 km east northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
70 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
160 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
160 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.0S 159.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.5S 160.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.0S 160.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 16.5S 159.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Cyclone has intensitified in a weak shear environment, possibly assisted by an upper level trough well to the west. Curved band wrap 0.75 with adjustment 0.5 due to white. Eye pattern gives T no. of 5 but holding final T at 4 due to constraints. Cyclone is expected to continue to deepen further in favorable shear environment while moving south over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 62 Comments: 54283
246. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE MITCHELL, CATEGORY ONE (04U)
9:00 PM WST December 29 2012
======================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (990 hPa) located at 19.0S 110.0E or 540 km northwest of Exmouth and 760 km north northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
===============
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 20.9S 109.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 22.5S 108.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 26.8S 107.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 30.2S 109.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Convective organisation has reduced since 0700 UTC. This timing corresponds with the system moving over lower Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential [TCHP] water. Dvorak FT has reduced to 2.5 since 0700 UTC based mainly on pattern and MET, but CI has been kept at 3.0 due to constraints on weakening.

A CI of 3.0, along with ADT and CIMSS AMSU all indicate a current intensity of 40 knots.

Shear and upper divergence remain favourable until about 00 UTC Sunday. Even though there have been signs of weakening, due to the possibility of re invigoration overnight intensity has been kept at 40 knots until 00 UTC Sunday. Colder water and increasing shear should then lead to the system weakening during the remainder of Sunday and Monday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 62 Comments: 54283
245. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
ZONE PERTURBEE 05-20122013
16:00 PM RET December 29 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather (1001 hPa) located at 10.1S 64.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 10.4S 62.9E - 25 knots (Disturbance Tropicale)
24 HRS: 10.7S 61.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 11.4S 58.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 12.7S 56.7E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
According to satellite imagery and surface observations, the large low level circulation is still somewhat elongated but appears more symmetrical than yesterday. The center is still not well defined with evidence of multiple vortices. Under the negative effect of a rather strong easterly constraint (30-40 kt according to CIMSS data), the main convection is only located in the western semi-circle.

On the northern edge of a low to mid-level ridge, the system should resume a general westwards tracks for the next 36 to 48 hours. Beyond that time, a mid level ridge is expected to build east of the system. Consequently, the system should slow down and turn polewards. Available numerical weather prediction models are in very good agreement on that track even in the long term forecast ... so there is a higher than usual degree of confidence in the track forecast.

According to numerical weather prediction fields, the shear (main inhibitor currently) should gradually decrease until monday. Tuesday, the environmental conditions should become excellent resulting in steady intensification (good oceanic heat contain, low shear, good upper level divergence with 2 outflow channels both north and south). The current intensity forecast is based on ALADIN-REUNION and ECMWF up to Monday and then is closed to STIPS up to the end of the forecast period.

Given all the above, inhabitants of Agalega, La Reunion and Mauritius should monitor the progress of this system. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast position ... specially at long range. According to numerical weather prediction models, the system is likely to be large and associated hazards could affect widespread areas.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 62 Comments: 54283
244. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET December 29 2012
==================================

At the extreme east of the basin: Convective activity remains strong within the monsoon trough but satellite imagery, surface obs and scatt data do not show a well defined low level circulation center at present time, although OSCAT pass at 0548Z suggest an inch of a surface circulation near 8.7S 81.7E. According to numerical weather prediction fields, conditions could become more conducive for development over the area monday: improving low level convergence associated with a trade winds surge from the southwest associated with low shear.

For the area at the extreme east of the basin, the potential for development of a tropical depression is poor tomorrow and become fair Monday and Tuesday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 62 Comments: 54283
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather
Not much, if any. This "event" falling apart for area. MT @chinoali: Still looking like snow coming?

This will not be a blockbuster storm with wide scale double-digit snowfall as most of our other named storms have produced. However, it will cover an area with "shovel-able" snow that could affect as many as 20 to 25 million people on a travel weekend between major holidays.

So if this storm didn't come between holidays, they wouldn't name it then? Cuz, to me, this storm doesn't seem like much, esp. for that region of the country
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Light rain now out here on Longboat Key. Picked up .8 inches yesterday afternoon through 7 AM this morning.

Looks like we have about 20 minutes left of light rain, followed by a dry slot, and another downpour following that before the winds shift, and it gets cooler.

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Quoting hericane96:
just for fun look what i found the living barbie.






Did ya'll here about the new Barbie release?


It's called "Divorce Barbie"!









She comes with all of Ken's stuff!
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OH WOW..look at the temps tonight in the panhandle...
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Dang, I have to travel into this mess this morning. Headin' up to Melbourne to spend a couple days with my son. Looks like we will be going to the gun show in the rain.

Mornin' Largo, 91...

Evening Aussie!
GOOD MORNING..drive safe..bad weather crossing the state.............SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
749 AM EST SAT DEC 29 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-291530-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
749 AM EST SAT DEC 29 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH NOON...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING A ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KISSIMMEE TO CAPE CANAVERAL THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM...THEN FOR
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING PALM BAY...VERO BEACH...OKEECHOBEE...
FT. PIERCE AND STUART THROUGH AROUND NOON. SOME SHORT BURSTS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH
AS ISOLATED STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS CROSS THE REGION.
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Quoting LargoFl:
GOOD MORNING, everything is soaking wet here by me, another one is by me now, should be the last when this passes..some great rain last night and this morning..great because this is supposed to be our dry time..st pete airport recorded 9/10's of an inch last night..breaking the old record.



Good morning to you too, yes rainfall was impressive last night, just under 1.25 here! We haven't had much today yet though, and the squall line has really collapsed now to just a few broken segments and may grow even weaker. I'm not sure why either, we have lots of available upper support and plenty of moisture. There should be a large and strong line of storms approaching but instead its just a few broken showery segments, weird.

At any rate, at least we had a lot of rain last night! We got way more rain with the warm front than the cold front, that's a first...
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Well, it looks like our squall line is dissipating, for reasons I'm not sure. If you didn't get much rain last night, well, you're probably not getting much today, either.
GOOD MORNING, everything is soaking wet here by me, another one is by me now, should be the last when this passes..some great rain last night and this morning..great because this is supposed to be our dry time..st pete airport recorded 9/10's of an inch last night..breaking the old record.
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Well, it looks like our squall line is dissipating, for reasons I'm not sure. If you didn't get much rain last night, well, you're probably not getting much today, either.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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