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Heavy snow and largest Christmas tornado outbreak on record slam U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:33 PM GMT on December 26, 2012

The most impressive U.S. December snowstorm in two years is powering across the eastern third of the country today, bringing blizzard conditions to Indiana and Ohio and severe thunderstorms to eastern North Carolina. The 28 preliminary tornadoes that touched down yesterday will likely put December 25, 2012 in first place for largest Christmas tornado outbreak in U.S. history. Fortunately, the tornadoes are not being blamed for any deaths, though strong thunderstorm winds have killed two people due to falling trees. Dozens of people have been injured due to the severe weather--25 in Mississippi alone. The parent storm has dumped more than 8 inches of snow in six states--Arkansas, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas. According to the latest NWS Storm Summary, the greatest snowfall so far has been at Morrilton, Arkansas, where 13.5" has fallen. Tornado watches are posted today in Eastern North Carolina, where NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has indicated a "Slight Risk" of severe weather exists. This is one level of alert below the "Moderate Risk" of severe weather that existed on Christmas Day for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. As of 2 pm EST on December 26, no tornadoes had been reported for the day, though several tornado warnings had been issued for North Carolina.


Figure 1. Winter Storm Euclid at 1:25 pm EST Wednesday, December 26, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Preliminary storm reports from Christmas Day, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center show as many as 28 tornado reports.

History of Christmas-time tornado outbreaks
Serious tornado outbreaks in the winter are uncommon, particularly so during Christmas. According to the Tornado History Project there have been eight Christmases since 1950 with tornadoes. The most recent Christmas with tornadoes was in 2006, when six twisters touched down in Florida and Georgia. The most tornadoes ever recorded on Christmas Day was twelve, back in 1969. With 28 preliminary tornadoes reported yesterday, it appears very likely that December 25, 2012 will rank in first place for most tornadoes ever recorded on Christmas Day. It is possible that the tornado that hit Maxie, MS yesterday will be rated an EF-3, tying it for strongest Christmas tornado on record. The strongest Christmas tornadoes on record were F-3s that occurred in 1964 and 1969.


Video 1. A tornado is caught on video from the top of a Holiday Inn crossing through Mobile, Alabama on December 25, 2012. Preliminary NWS damage surveys have rated this at least an EF-1 tornado. Here is another YouTube video of the Mobile tornado.

Wunderground meteorologists Angela Fritz and Shaun Tanner are also blogging on this impressive storm, and have more info on the history of Christmas-time tornado outbreaks.

Jeff Masters

White Out (docshovel39)
Less than a week after a severe dust storm hit this area , a pretty strong winter storm hit . From 'Brown Out' to 'White Out'.
White Out
A Snowy Morning (WeatherRose)
A Snowy Morning
Christmas Sunset (wildernessgirl)
After the storm
Christmas Sunset

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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262. pcola57
4:05 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
261. LargoFl
4:05 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting kanshadow:


Actually, the temps were in the mid-40s overnight & earlier this morning here on Long Island; we only got a few snow/sleetflakes early yesterday from the storm, and the rest has all been rain.
ok TY for the update, good thing no one was injured..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
260. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:04 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
259. GeorgiaStormz
4:00 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Typical winter down here, snow eludes, while cold rains fall:

OFTEN TIMES SPLIT
FLOW PATTERNS IN WINTER CAN DELIVER OUR REGION WINTRY WEATHER
RISKS...BUT I HAVE SEEN NO MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW ANYTHING WORSE
THAN A VERY COLD RAIN AT TIMES.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
258. washingtonian115
3:59 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
So how much snow would D.C get from this storm on Saturday according to the ECWMF?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
257. GeorgiaStormz
3:55 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GOMEX...OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET CARVES INTO THE
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY SHOULD BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...WITH PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY
COATING THE ENTIRE CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES TOWARD
CENTRAL ALABAMA. FORECASTING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LARGELY LIQUID FOR THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT...HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SMALL AMOUNT OF SLEET MIXING IN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS THE BASE OF THE H5 TROUGH SLIDES
THROUGH THE CWFA AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY AND BRINGS COOLER PROFILES TO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MAY SEE A FEW FLAKES MIX INTO THE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.



all light sleet, light flurries, lotta rain, and no snow
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
256. Luisport
3:53 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ECMWF has a decent snowstorm for the coastal Northeast. Widespread half a foot totals across New Jersey would occur with this, with isolated locations picking up over a foot.

This one is better http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes _ecan_1070_100.jpg
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
255. GeorgiaStormz
3:51 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting pcola57:

Suface Wind

Current Jet Stream



the windmap isnt the real one, its just an image they have on that page as an example.

There currently is no southerly jet over the Eastern US or large low in TX
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
254. washingtonian115
3:48 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
I'm hearing from local mets that we could see some pretty good snow Saturday.I'm hoping!.BTW it feels as though a tropical storm is hitting us right now.Those winds are howling right now.I recorded a gust of 45mph in the last 20 minutes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
253. pcola57
3:45 PM GMT on December 27, 2012


Stumble Upon

Current Jet Stream
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252. GeorgiaStormz
3:44 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
251. Tazmanian
3:43 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Move that low southwest into the gulf and deepen it a lot please!
I WANT SNOW!:





you cant have it its mine snow
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
250. kanshadow
3:42 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
Must be real icy up in nyc and suburbs.............A Tampa-bound flight from Long Island, New York veered off its runway before takeoff Thursday morning.

According to police in Suffolk County, Long Island, Southwest Flight 4695 veered off the runway at MacArthur Airport while taxiing. It veered onto a grassy area.

No injuries were reported.

The flight was scheduled to land in Tampa at 9:15 a.m.

It will be delayed until 2:45 p.m., according to the airline.


Actually, the temps were in the mid-40s overnight & earlier this morning here on Long Island; we only got a few snow/sleetflakes early yesterday from the storm, and the rest has all been rain.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
249. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:38 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ECMWF has a decent snowstorm for the coastal Northeast. Widespread half a foot totals across New Jersey would occur with this, with isolated locations picking up over a foot.



a.k.a post# 243
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
248. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:36 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
ECMWF has a decent snowstorm for the coastal Northeast. Widespread half a foot totals across New Jersey would occur with this, with isolated locations picking up over a foot.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
247. GeorgiaStormz
3:34 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Move that low southwest into the gulf and deepen it a lot please!
I WANT SNOW!:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
246. pcola57
3:25 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
245. kwgirl
3:24 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
kwgirl.... Guess we are so used to seeing, Ibis, Egrets, and the noisy Mockingbird... I never understood why Florida made the Mockingbird the state bird... Noisy, and have been know to attack if you get close to their nest...I love the Snowy Egret... That would be my choice.
Maybe the Mockingbird was most abundant when the decision was made to name a state bird. After all, they are in every part of Florida. Not too sure if the snowy egret is though. I like mockingbirds. They are funny, sassy and they are smart. One year I had a mockingbird nest in the mahogony tree in the front yard of my house. It never attacked, but would scream "cat" whenever the neighbor's cat was in the vicinity. I would go out and chase the cat away if it was in my yard. Then one time I heard them screaming "cat" and went outside to see what was going on. The cat was in the crotch of the tree, with both parents on either side of it screaming cat. I chased it down from the tree and my dog chased the cat out of the yard. After the fledglings had flown life became somewhat normal again in the yard. One day my dog was barking at a large dog on the other side of the fence. Suddenly a mockingbird lands on the fence and starts attacking the dog outside the fence to drive it away. I think the bird was doing us a favor to drive the dog away as we (me and my dog) drove the cat away. One good turn, etc. I love their songs and love to watch them trying to attract a mate.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
244. pcola57
3:19 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
NEW*** WINTER WEATHER UPDATE....
__________________________________

Potential nor'easter could bring big NYC snowfall this Saturday



Thanks Max..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
243. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:13 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
NEW*** WINTER WEATHER UPDATE....
__________________________________

Potential nor'easter could bring big NYC snowfall this Saturday

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
242. hericane96
3:13 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
here is the weather for thursday in jackson.Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
241. pcola57
3:12 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting KarenRei:


Actually, they can be - there's a phenomenon called "convergent evolution". So should they really be one species? Or perhaps a ring species?

As I said, evolution and taxonomy can be complicated ;)


Thank you KarenRei for that in-depth explanation..
I think I actually understood it..
Thanks for sharing.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
240. LargoFl
3:09 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
239. LargoFl
3:08 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
238. LargoFl
3:02 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Must be real icy up in nyc and suburbs.............A Tampa-bound flight from Long Island, New York veered off its runway before takeoff Thursday morning.

According to police in Suffolk County, Long Island, Southwest Flight 4695 veered off the runway at MacArthur Airport while taxiing. It veered onto a grassy area.

No injuries were reported.

The flight was scheduled to land in Tampa at 9:15 a.m.

It will be delayed until 2:45 p.m., according to the airline.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
237. LargoFl
2:57 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
236. LargoFl
2:51 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting winter123:
Sort of worried about my new apartment near Albany ny. I'm out of town so I don't know how much snow or how heavy/wet it is at my exact location. I've seen reports anywhere fro 6 to 16 inches and still snowing! By the way. Does anyone have a long loop gif radar from euclid? Thanks.
..............well here is the weather report out of Albany NY..............WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
TACONICS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE TACONICS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES...EXCEPT 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND HELDERBERGS.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...AND
VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...BRIEF INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW PER HOUR THROUGH NOONTIME...AND GENERALLY UNDER ONE INCH
PER HOUR THIS AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
NOONTIME IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
HELDERBERGS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET AND LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL THROUGH
THURSDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...FREQUENTLY BELOW 1 MILE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW...WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS BELOW ONE HALF MILE.

* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
235. LargoFl
2:45 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting hericane96:
i got this off the weather channel snow for the south wed. night. most likly wrong this far out.
well the temps are down at night, cold enough for snow, especially north of tampa bay..the panhandle and georgia etc could..see some white stuff with that cold front coming friday into the weekend..we'll see....i rreally do not want to see snow cover on ground come all the way to the gulf states..wow
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
234. winter123
2:45 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Sort of worried about my new apartment near Albany ny. I'm out of town so I don't know how much snow or how heavy/wet it is at my exact location. I've seen reports anywhere fro 6 to 16 inches and still snowing! By the way. Does anyone have a long loop gif radar from euclid? Thanks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
233. hericane96
2:42 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
i got this off the weather channel snow for the south wed. night. most likly wrong this far out.
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232. LargoFl
2:40 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Well, I don't do Walmarts but I would miss Target! LOL
On second thought, I'm not sure I could do California. Great climate but their ecomomy is more messed up that ours in Florida
and lets not forget..in California..the ground shakes and moves under your feet lol..NTY I'll stay right here gee..imagine laying in bed at night..and your bed starts shaking, windows rattling..nope in florida I stay
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
231. FtMyersgal
2:37 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
FtMyersgal....I absolutely love Key West, but I couldn't live there... I need the Targets, Walmarts, and the malls.... But I do make a trek there twice a year...


Well, I don't do Walmarts but I would miss Target! LOL
On second thought, I'm not sure I could do California. Great climate but their ecomomy is more messed up that ours in Florida
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
230. LargoFl
2:36 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
WASH D.C is windy today huh..................
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
229. NEwxguy
2:36 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
For all the snowlovers here in the northeast,we can root for the ECMWF model.

SATURDAY...
THIS IS WHERE THE DRAMA BUILDS AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF GOES BONKERS
WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. AT 06Z SUN THE
ECMWF AS A 972 LOW OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND FURTHER BOMBING
TO ABOUT 959 MB JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA 18Z SUN! THIS RAPID
DEEPENING GENERATES QPF OFF THE CHARTS WITH STORM TOTAL OF 2+
/LIQUID/ OVER CAPE COD!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
228. KarenRei
2:33 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting kwgirl:
They can't be too far apart on the "Tree of Birds". They look too much alike.


Actually, they can be - there's a phenomenon called "convergent evolution". If two different species are evolving to fill the same niche, they might select for the same traits and thus end up looking similar in one or more regards even though they're totally unrelated. For a human analogy, it's sort of how the Mayans are culturally unrelated to the Egyptians but both built pyramids - they had the same outside force directing their construction projects (that of, "I want to build a large building to show how awesome I am, but whenever I try with sheer walls, it collapses!")

Now, that's not true in this case - they actually *are* related ;) The cardinal family and the waxwing family are not only in the same order, but the same suborder - Passeri (the Passeriformes) - and the same suborder basal group - Passerida. Passeriformes a suborder of what are generally small perching songbirds and is somewhat diverse, also including, for example, the corvines (crows, ravens, jays), birds of paradise, etc. The basal group is more specific but still includes things like sparrows, swallows, finches, mockingbirds, starlings, wrens, etc.

Quoting kwgirl:
And why can't they breed? Isn't that how different types of birds evolve, by cross breeding?


Lol, evolution is an extremely complex topic, but broadly, no. Can you breed with, say, a fiddler crab? Once two groups evolve enough away from each other, they can no longer interbreed. This is called speciation - in general, once anything stops a subgroup from breeding with each other for long enough, random mutations will eventually make it impossible to do so. There's many different mechanisms which bring it about - allopatric (a species gets divided up by a new geological barrier), peripatric (a part of a species goes off and colonizes a new niche elsewhere, with a geological barrier preventing them from breeding), sympatric (there is no barrier, but two very different niches start being pursued by the same species in the same area), and parapatric (a cross between peripatric and sympatric).

With birds the species-level is often finer-grained than most people would expect from appearances - probably because flight makes it easier go off and get yourself isolated. People are used to say, dogs, which are a single species but incredibly diverse in terms of appearances. But even members of the same genus of true parrots for example (let alone all true parrots, let alone all parrots period!) can't interbreed. You can't, for example, breed a Congo African Grey with a Timneh African Grey.

And it's actually weirder than that because there's actually what's called "ring species". The classic example is the Larus gulls, which are a genus of seagull which live in the far north. The ones in western Asia, which can breed with those in central Asia, which can breed with those in eastern Asia, which can breed with those in far eastern Asia, which can breed with those in Alaska and Canada, which can breed with those in Europe... but those in Europe generally can't breed with those in western Asia! But it's even more complicated than that, because the "classic" example is itself not a pure ring species. It's more like a "web" of what can breed and interbreed because there's other Larus gulls that don't fit neatly into the chain.

And then you get into questions of, "what defines the ability to interbreed?" If you could do it in the lab, are they different species? If you could do it with artificial insemination, but they can't do it on their own because their "parts" no longer fit or other issues of "physics"? Or if they're fully capable of it but simply due to changes in sexual selection choose not to any more? What if they'll breed together in captivity but not the wild? And for a more extreme example, what about species that don't even *breed*, like parthenogenic whiptail lizards?

And at what point do you say that something is no longer capable of "breeding"? Does there have to be *no* fertilization? Fertilization but no carrying to term? Carrying to term but sterility (for example, a mule)? Well even that is tricky because a small percentage of mules are fertile! Clearly if horses and donkeys could produce fertile offspring 100% of the time we'd call them one species, like we do with dogs despite their differences in appearance. Clearly the low (fraction of a percent) fertility rate is insufficient to be called one species. So what's the cutoff percent?

And hey, back to the issue of dogs - given all of the above, one would doubt that the physics of a great dane trying to mate with a chihuahua would work very well. So should they really be one species? Or perhaps a ring species?

As I said, evolution and taxonomy can be complicated ;)
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227. LargoFl
2:33 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
our friends in Texas may get showers, they need rain...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
226. LargoFl
2:31 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
almost cold enough for snow in the panhandle huh....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
225. LargoFl
2:29 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
HMMM...NO THANK YOU..............LOL.............
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
224. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:29 PM GMT on December 27, 2012


94P (05F) forecast track from RSMC Nadi
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223. LargoFl
2:27 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
well in 1977 Tampa got a half an inch of snow..........
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
222. PalmBeachWeather
2:27 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Well I don't know about Largo, but the thought of snow in Fort Myers definately does not appeal to me. I may have to move to the Keys where kwgirl is. If it snows in Key West I don't know where I'd move next. May San Diego??
FtMyersgal....I absolutely love Key West, but I couldn't live there... I need the Targets, Walmarts, and the malls.... But I do make a trek there twice a year...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
221. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:25 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F
0:00 AM FST December 28 2012
====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 05F (1002 hPa) located at 9.0S 162.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southwest at 13 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has improved slightly in the last 24 hours. Convection has increased near the system in the past 24 hours. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. The cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Most global models agree on a southwest movement with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 9.8S 162.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 10.5S 161.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 12.2S 161.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
220. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:24 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TROPICAL STORM WUKONG (T1225)
21:00 PM JST December 27 2012
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Wukong (1002 hPa) located at 10.1N 114.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 8.2N 109.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 6.4N 106.4E - Tropical Depression In South China Sea
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
219. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:24 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Reunion RSMC
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET December 27 2012
===============================

Southwest of Diego Garcia : last animated satellite pictures and surface observations suggest a poorly defined circulation approximately located near 08S 71E at 09Z. Estimated mean sea low pressure is about 1005 hPa. Incomplete ASCAT data suggest 10-15 knots maximum winds in the eastern semi-circle of the low level circulation. Currently the circulation is undergoing marginal environmental conditions. Lower level convergence is indirect equatorward (due to near equatorial westerly flow), and the trade inflow is moderate (due to a weakness in the subtropical anticyclonic belt). In altitude, the easterly upper level wind shear is moderate (20 knots according to the CIMSS data), north of the upper troposphere ridge.

The last available numerical weather prediction models hold on to forecast the deepening of this low, with a general west southwestward movement for the next 3 days. Lower levels convergence may improve progressively. Up to Saturday, the limiting factor for the development of this low should be the upper level wind shear. On and after Sunday morning, the conditions may become more conducive for development as the shear is expected to decrease.

At the extreme East of the basin : morning ASCAT data suggest an 10-15 knots, elongated low level circulation, located near 4.5S 88.5E, within a convective active area. Mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1004 hPa. Current environmental conditions are marginal in the lower levels (indirect inflow equatorward, and weak trade inflow southward), and aloft (moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear). Available numerical weather prediction models forecast a southward movement and a slow deepening within the next three days, due to persistent marginal environmental conditions.

For the area south-west of Diego Garcia, the potential for the development of a tropical
depression is poor to fair up to Saturday, and becomes good on Sunday.

For the area at the extreme east of the basin, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is poor for the next 3 days.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
218. LargoFl
2:24 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Local Met just said most area's around me will have frost tomorrow..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
217. VR46L
2:22 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Well I don't know about Largo, but the thought of snow in Fort Myers definately does not appeal to me. I may have to move to the Keys where kwgirl is. If it snows in Key West I don't know where I'd move next. May San Diego??


I would laugh my head off 40 degrees north of you and next to no chance of snow .LOL. :)

My Bad Sorry Gal .. I would be surprised if it made it that far south
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
216. LargoFl
2:22 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
It is rare for there to be snow in Florida. The reason that snow so rarely occurs in this U.S. state is that freezing temperatures in Florida are generally caused by the cold and dry winds of anticyclones. Frost is more common than snow, requiring temperatures of 45°F (7°C) or less at 2 metres (7 ft) above sea level, a cloudless sky, and a relative humidity of 65% or more.[1] In the general case, for snow to occur, the polar jet stream must move southward through Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico, with a stalled cold front across the southern portion of the state curving northeastward to combine freezing air into the frontal clouds.[2]

Much of the known information on snow in Florida prior to 1900 is from weather climatology provided by the Jacksonville National Weather Service; for this reason, information for other locations is sparse.[1] The earliest recorded instance of snow in Florida was a snowstorm that occurred in 1774; being unaccustomed to snow, some residents called it "extraordinary white rain."[1] The first White Christmas in Jacksonville's history resulted from a snowfall that occurred on December 23, 1989.[2] The most recent occurrence of snow in Florida took place on January 9, 2011, when sleet was reported in the counties of Escambia and Santa Rosa.[3]
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
215. LargoFl
2:21 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
wel i guess it would be nice to see a snow flurry or two, I doubt any sticking stuff on the ground here, but maybe to my north it could possibly...just walked the dogs, and they say its 50 here now..feels a whole lot colder than that.. whew the air itself is frosty LOL
LOL im with you on that one
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
214. SFLWeatherman
2:19 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
lol
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Well I don't know about Largo, but the thought of snow in Fort Myers definately does not appeal to me. I may have to move to the Keys where kwgirl is. If it snows in Key West I don't know where I'd move next. May San Diego??
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
213. SFLWeatherman
2:18 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
YES!
Quoting belizeit:
is any one else having trouple getting the gfs model run
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
212. belizeit
2:16 PM GMT on December 27, 2012
is any one else having trouple getting the gfs model run
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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