Dallas beats Chicago for first snow of the season; record snowless streak in Chicago

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:23 PM GMT on December 11, 2012

It's been a bad year for building snowmen in Chicago. It last snowed in Chicago on March 4, 2012, and Chicago has now gone 281 days in a row without snow, its longest such streak on record. Weather records for Chicago date back to 1871. Dallas, Texas had its first snow of the season yesterday, picking up 0.1". This is only the second time on record that Dallas has had an earlier first snow than Chicago. The only other time this has happened was in 1951, when Dallas received 0.6" on November 2, and Chicago had 4.4" on November 3.

With accumulating snow looking highly unlikely through at least December 14, Chicago's record for latest accumulating snow of the season may also fall. The average date for Chicago's first measurable snowfall is November 16, and the latest first snow of the season on record occurred on December 16, 1965. Rain mixed with snow is expected this weekend on the 15th and 16th, but the precipitation may fall entirely as rain. The lack of snow in Chicago this year is reflective of both how warm and dry it's been. The 25.20" of rain Chicago has received so far in 2012 is more than 10" below average, and the city experienced its 10th driest January - November period on record. Record warmth in early December brought Chicago only its 3rd 70┬░F December day on December 3.

Jeff Masters

Chicago Skyline Architecture at Sunset from John Hancock Building of Trump & Willis (Sears) Towers32 (jennjeff1)
Chicago Skyline Architecture at Sunset from John Hancock Building of Trump & Willis (Sears) Towers32

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Quoting LargoFl:
Critical habitats for fish and birds, as well as endangered species like the key deer, American alligator and Florida panther, will be severely reduced and could disappear altogether.
Pythons are already taking care of those populations.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Why can't we speed up the satellite loop on WunderMap?


You can.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



I'll freak if that verifies!


Brings back memories of '93 Superstorm. I was like 8, one of the coolest things I have seen
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no hiding your head in the sand on this one from NOAA...........Despite uncertainty about the extent of sea level rise, "what we do know is that higher mean sea levels will increase the frequency, magnitude and duration of flooding" from storms, says co-author and NOAA scientist Adam Parris. He says the biggest uncertainty is the amount of water that will come from melting glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica.

In the United States, NOAA finds the U.S. Gulf Coast and Chesapeake Bay will continue to experience the most rapid and highest amounts of sea level rise, because some of the land there is subsiding. It says parts of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest, where land is rising, may experience much less or no sea level change.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 67933
From scientists in the UK...............Scientists have found support for the controversial idea that global warming is causing more frequent and destructive hurricanes, a subject that has been hotly debated during the past decade.

Data gathered from tide gauges, which monitor the rapid changes to sea levels caused by storm surges, show a significant link between both the frequency and intensity of tropical storms and increases in annual temperatures since the tidal records began in 1923.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 67933
The Meteorology of Little House on the Prairie
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Quoting ncstorm:
has anyone seen the 12z Euro??


I have but I dont think its tropical , Maybe Sub but I think if that storm occurs only Iceland , Ireland and the UK have any issues with it .
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7184
Quoting ncstorm:
12z GFS-holy moley!! it would snow from hour 214 to hour 384







I'm still skeptical a out that.Models always love forecasting snow which never materializes...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 22732
Jedkins..IF this comes true..will that add to the number of tropical systems forming in the gulf?..........................Since 1970, the U.S. Southeast has warmed about 2 degrees Fahrenheit. As warming continues, Florida is expected to be one of the hardest hit in the region. For unabated emissions, the number of 90 degree Fahrenheit days is expected to rise significantly. Throughout much of Florida, there were approximately 60 such hot days per year in the 1960s and 70s; by the end of the century, that is expected to climb to approximately 165 hot days.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 67933
Interesting and sometimes even a little humorous video lecture with a good overview, animated graphics and more. Esp. interesting concerning model performance (starting at 15:00 min.), satellite analysis and more. Some of these weather and climate products are familiar to people on this blog, some I didn't know yet.

Sagan Lecture: The Race to Understand a Changing Planet
by Dr. Piers J. Sellers

during AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco 3-7 December 2012 ("our doc" attended this meeting, too)


About Sellers from wikipedia:

Piers John Sellers (Ph.D.) OBE (born 11 April 1955) is a British-born Anglo-American meteorologist and a NASA astronaut. He is a veteran of three space shuttle missions. Sellers graduated from Cranbrook School, Cranbrook, Kent, United Kingdom, in 1973 and achieved a bachelor of science degree in ecological science from the University of Edinburgh in 1976. In 1981 he gained a doctorate in biometeorology from the University of Leeds.

Before joining the astronaut corps, Sellers worked at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center on research into how the Earth's biosphere and atmosphere interact. This work involved climate system computer modeling and field work utilizing aircraft, satellites and ground support input.

----------------

Edit youtube link with help of Neas converter, look at post 246. :-)

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A wrap around snow event for the Memphis area that went to TN and didnt affect GA was the same way we began snow season early next year.....and it turned out GA didnt even get flurries that winter...
I'm hoping we don't go thorugh that again...I was somewhat hoping for the ecmwf severe weather outbreak but now it looks like i'll just have to settle for cold rain maybe ending as a few flurries.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9897
Why can't we speed up the satellite loop on WunderMap?
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 10534
And it appears the ECMWF may be giving in to the GFS wintry solution, but I still dont think this is cold enough for snow south of TN....just another cold rain...
and its wraparound moistre and not the main rain mass, and that almost never leads to significant accumulating snow:

168hrs:


192hrs:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9897
Rising sea level is one of the most threatening impacts of climate change in Florida. Satellite observations show that global sea level rise is accelerating. By 2100, sea level rise could well exceed 3 feet if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated and a 6 foot rise is possible. The higher end of the estimates could be realized if the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets break up more rapidly. This threatens to submerge Florida's coastal communities and economies since roughly 9 percent of the state is within 5 feet of the existing sea level. Rising sea level also threatens the beaches, wetlands, and mangrove forests that surround the state. Some of the small islands of the Florida Keys could completely disappear due to rising sea levels. Inland ecosystems will also suffer as salt water intrusion into the Everglades or up rivers impacts freshwater plants and animals. Critical habitats for fish and birds, as well as endangered species like the key deer, American alligator and Florida panther, will be severely reduced and could disappear altogether.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 67933
Quoting WDEmobmet:
My 3 year old would flip out if this materialized!!!








I'll freak if that verifies!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 67933
Quoting yonzabam:


No. More drought. Atmospheric pressure patterns will change. They're changing now, due to unusual jet stream activity,itself believed to be due to warming.

That means rainfall distribution patterns will change. In addition the increased rainfall will fall in heavier bursts. This means that the top of the soil will become saturated more quickly, so a greater percentage of the additional rain that falls will run off into watercourses or puddles, without irrigating the soil.

Increased evaporation rates will further reduce soil moisture, making it drier and harder. Hard dry soil also enhances run off.



Not entirely. Climate Change will mean some areas will get wetter, others drier.

Most rainfall in Florida comes in the form of torrential rain bursts for short periods. Probably 80% of ground water comes from such. This rainy season, we had so much rain widespread across the area, that nearly 10 years of well below normal deep ground water was restored all during this summer. Well, almost all of that rainfall was generally heavy convective bursts of rainfall, as it often is here.

What you say about bursts of heavy rain is true for areas experiencing large scale drought both at the surface and deep, however, that's only true if you say get a huge 4 inch rain total on top of a severe drought and then it doesn't rain again for a while. In that case, most will runoff, wetting the surface but not well below ground. However a long extended pattern of such heavy rain will surely end the drought as it did here. That is what ends droughts anyway. You can't end 20 inch deficits from steady rains...

Climate Change will cause different changes for different regions, hence the name.



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Quoting RitaEvac:
Can't find this site anymore, must of shut it down


What site is that? The image you linked to shows up.
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80. Skyepony (Mod)
Heard this launch..too many clouds to see. Sorta secret launch of the mini shuttle..

Dec. 11 Atlas 5 %u2022 OTV 3
Launch period: 1803-2303 GMT (1:03-6:03 p.m. EST)
Launch site: SLC-41, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 rocket (AV-034) will deploy the U.S. military's X-37B, a prototype spaceplane also called the Orbital Test Vehicle, on the program's third mission. The rocket will fly in the 501 vehicle configuration with a five-meter fairing, no solid rocket boosters and a single-engine Centaur upper stage. Moved up from Oct. 26. Delayed from Oct. 25, Oct. 30, Nov. 13 and Nov. 27. [Dec. 6]



1821 GMT (1:21 p.m. EST)
And with that, the launch will go into a cloak of secrecy. Confirmation that the Orbital Test Vehicle has separated from the Centaur won't be announced live.
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.NOW...
THROUGH 3 PM...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS WERE SCATTERED OFF THE COAST BETWEEN CAPTIVA
AND THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY FOR UP 60 MILES. OTHER SHOWERS WERE
SCATTERED BETWEEN SARASOTA AND PUNTA GORDA AND OVER MUCH OF POLK
COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS HARDEE AND HIGHLAND
COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING NEAR THESE STORMS.

$$
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Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 10534
another big blob building out there in the gulf
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I was driving on I4 then I275 through Tampa last night through those storms. Haven't see a light show like that in a long time.
sure was amazing last nite huh..never saw so much lightning
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 67933
Quoting Jedkins01:



One clap of thunder? We had thousands of them last night here around the Tampa Bay area, literally. That cluster of thunderstorm last night at one point was producing around 5700 lightning strikes per hour, that's crazy for December lol.


Yeah, sadly, since that one rumble we've had nothing else. Had a rain shower but nothing significant.
All I can say is "sigh"
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has anyone seen the 12z Euro??
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Quoting yonzabam:


Hydrology isn't something I read much about. But if the collected water has to be pumped, it wouldn't be economical for growing crops. Imported grain would be cheaper.
well here in my county, our drinking water comes from underground aquifers, and for a long time now, my city has been enlarging the lakes already here, so more rain water can seep down, probably other cities are doing uit as well, add to that my city has become a "tree city"..even giving away free tree's to residents for planting on their properties, tree's prevent ground water loss as well as cooling things down...nice to see a city go progressive i think.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 67933
I would expect to see some sort of rise in global temps with all the heated discussions on here over the last few weeks :-)
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Can't find this site anymore, must of shut it down



Edit: found it
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 10534
Forgive me if this has already been posted, but it's important information : Link

Back in the 80's I was helping with population surveys for northern bog lemmings in MD and southern PA at the southermost part of their range. I haven't worked in the field for a long time, but I'd bet you won't find them in western MD anymore. The world is changing quickly.
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12z GFS-holy moley!! it would snow from hour 214 to hour 384







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Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 10534
Quoting txjac:


Honest question here ...

Where would we expect to see the snow? I've seen several posts here where it appears that cold fronts are dipping down further south ..would the snow be in areas that dont normally see snow? Or are areas that generally see snow in the winter get more snow?


Edit..maybe I'm not looking "globally" enough as I am looking right now concerning the US.

Probably one good prediction would be for areas where snowfall is limited by temperature and temperatures are expected to increase. So if an area is too cold to snow much and is expecting warmer temperatures, it could see increased snowfall.
For many mountainous areas, even increased temperatures of 5F would still cause the precipitation type to be snow in winter, but the higher temperatures would allow for more moisture.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:




But less drought then, no?







Not really. Shifting weather patterns due to climate change can cause more floods in one area and drought in another. For example, IPCC projections show the southwest and some of the midwest getting drier, while the pacific NW gets wetter.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
But less drought then, no?

There is more water available when a precipitation event occurs, but there must be some vertical motion to cause condensation and precipitation.

If there is less vertical motion, such as stagnant blocking highs, there will be less precipitation.
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My 3 year old would flip out if this materialized!!!





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Quoting plutorising:

i was reading in david brin's "existence" where those geoengineering clouds would raise the albedo and cool down the earth.


It takes more than moisture to make clouds. You also need a temeperature differential, or all your going to get moist air.

Also consider that even to make a small cloud (1000x1000x500 feet) takes on average about 500 tons of water under ideal circumstances. It takes approximately 100,000 J/lbs of water to evaporate it, assuming you starting from 40-50F water. To evaporate 500 tons of water requires aproximately 1x10^11 J of energy, or about 15 barrels of oil. Using solar panels to supply the power to do so is silly in this circumstance as solar panels are far less efficient than direct sunlight is at evaporating ocean water, so another energy source would need to be employed for the evaporation.

To even have the slightest impact on global albedo, you need to cover at a least a small percentage of the Earth with clouds. Lets take something like 1% to start with. Well 1% of the Earth's surface is about 5.5x10^13 sq. ft. We would need to create 5.5x10^7 1000x1000x500 ft clouds, which would require approximately 825,000,000 million barrels of oil, which is about how much oil the US uses over 40 days or so. And that's also assuming that a) You can control how the clouds would be distributed after formation and b) the conditions were conducive to cloud formation across the whole area.

It takes A LOT of energy to make clouds, which is why it is unfeasible to do so with ships sitting in the ocean. Not only that, but low atmosphere clouds aren't going to be to effective at reflecting energy back into space.

The more practical approach would be startospheric "thin cloud" creation, which requires much less water and much less energy(relatively speaking). Jet contrails are an example. But again, the conditions have to right for a persistent cloud, and you still need to get the water up there in the first place (again, that takes energy to do so).

There is no such thing as a free lunch. The energy to put clouds in the air beyond what the sun actually does has to come from somewhere (fossil fuels at this point), and you need the weather conditions to be correct in order for clouds to form anyway.
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Quoting txjac:



Another question ...would it be worthwhile to create more lakes and or ponds to capture the heavier rain? Could that be stored for future use such as irrigation?


Hydrology isn't something I read much about. But if the collected water has to be pumped, it wouldn't be economical for growing crops. Imported grain would be cheaper.
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Quoting txjac:


Honest question here ...

Where would we expect to see the snow? I've seen several posts here where it appears that cold fronts are dipping down further south ..would the snow be in areas that dont normally see snow? Or are areas that generally see snow in the winter get more snow?


Edit..maybe I'm not looking "globally" enough as I am looking right now concerning the US.


If the jet stream 'loops' continue to meander further south, bringing cold arctic air, as they have been doing in recent years, there could be an increase in heavy snow further south than usual, as that cold air collides with warm air from the south.

But it's all pretty chaotic. Nothing's certain.
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*shrugs*

Weather Modification:

Link




Link


The Weather Modification Association (WMA) was organized in 1950 to cultivate a better understanding of weather modification techniques, impacts, and expectations among program sponsors, program operators, and the scientific community, and to promote ethical professional conduct and a free exchange of information.

Chemtrails. The Realities of Geoengineering and Weather Modification

Link

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Quoting yonzabam:


No. More drought. Atmospheric pressure patterns will change. They're changing now, due to unusual jet stream activity,itself believed to be due to warming.

That means rainfall distribution patterns will change. In addition the increased rainfall will fall in heavier bursts. This means that the top of the soil will become saturated more quickly, so a greater percentage of the additional rain that falls will run off into watercourses or puddles, without irrigating the soil.

Increased evaporation rates will further reduce soil moisture, making it drier and harder. Hard dry soil also enhances run off.



Another question ...would it be worthwhile to create more lakes and or ponds to capture the heavier rain? Could that be stored for future use such as irrigation?
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Quoting TomballTXPride:




But less drought then, no?







No. More drought. Atmospheric pressure patterns will change. They're changing now, due to unusual jet stream activity,itself believed to be due to warming.

That means rainfall distribution patterns will change. In addition the increased rainfall will fall in heavier bursts. This means that the top of the soil will become saturated more quickly, so a greater percentage of the additional rain that falls will run off into watercourses or puddles, without irrigating the soil.

Increased evaporation rates will further reduce soil moisture, making it drier and harder. Hard dry soil also enhances run off.
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Quoting cantfoolme:
i love this blog, but ill give u a hundred bucks if you leave out the word "warmth" or "warm" in the next post. maybe you could talk about the epic early-season snowfall amount in the Tetons, but that doesnt fit your global ****ing agenda, does it?


...The globe is warming therefore it makes sense to talk about it...

You're sitting at a table with other people, eating a delicious meal, when someone points out how delicious the food is. Your immediate response would be that he is part of an agenda for voicing the fact that the food is delicious?
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Quoting yonzabam:


Science isn't an agenda. Denying science is an agenda.

And since more water evaporates in a warming world, there will be more snow.


Honest question here ...

Where would we expect to see the snow? I've seen several posts here where it appears that cold fronts are dipping down further south ..would the snow be in areas that dont normally see snow? Or are areas that generally see snow in the winter get more snow?


Edit..maybe I'm not looking "globally" enough as I am looking right now concerning the US.
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Quoting cantfoolme:
i love this blog, but ill give u a hundred bucks if you leave out the word "warmth" or "warm" in the next post. maybe you could talk about the epic early-season snowfall amount in the Tetons, but that doesnt fit your global ****ing agenda, does it?


Science isn't an agenda. Denying science is an agenda.

And since more water evaporates in a warming world, there will be more snow.
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Quoting cantfoolme:
maybe you could talk about the epic early-season snowfall amount in the Tetons, but that doesnt fit your [global warming] agenda, does it?

Considering the fact that snowfall is precipitation, not temperature, and that in many cases snowfall can increase with warmer temperatures, your insinuation is not really relevant.
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Quoting DFWdad:
It is interesting to me that so many records that we are breaking now seem to have been set in the 1950's. Hot and Cold. Like we are in some kind of 60 year cycle. Maybe every 9 solar cycles?
Quoting txjac:


Hi DFWDad ..I was wondering the same thing.


Assuming a stable climate, records of this nature would be found heavily weighted toward the beginning of the period of record. As you progress forward past the beginning of the period of record, it becomes harder and harder to overcome the previous high/low values and requires an ever-increasing amount of anomalous conditions to come together. Assuming a stable climate, the number of records will steadily decrease as the period of record is extended. This gets a little trickier, however, when the area considered decreases - variability/noise are a larger factor over smaller regions.

Of course, the assumption of a stable climate is usually not valid, and is especially not valid over the last 50 years on the global scale.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Launch of the X-37B on the Atlas V out of Cape Canaveral to occur shortly!


there won't be much to look at; very overcast over ecfl today.
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SPC prdicting "slight" chance of severe weather over central florida today and no mesoscale discussion yet.
1017 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...

...FL...
BROAD...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND REGION INTO SOUTHEAST GA. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL BE QUITE VEERED ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED. THE AREA WHERE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY WOULD BE ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE...AND OVER SOUTH FL ALONG A WEAK REMNANT BOUNDARY. LOCALLY GUSTY /DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT HAIL OR A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..HART/CORFIDI.. 12/11/2012
rgn
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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