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At least 370 dead from Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:21 PM GMT on December 05, 2012

The death toll in the Philippines from Typhoon Bopha has risen to at 370, with hundreds more missing. Bopha (called "Pablo" in the Philippines), slammed ashore on the Philippine island of Mindanao at 4:45 am local time on Tuesday morning as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Bopha is only Category 5 typhoon on record to make landfall on Mindanao, which rarely sees strong typhoons due to its position close to the Equator. Most of the deaths occurred in the gold-rush mountain towns of New Bataan and Monkayo due to typhoon-spawned landslides and flash floods. According to an op-ed published at sunstar.com, much of the death toll can be blamed on the fact that deforestation has reduced forest cover on Mindanao to just 10%, which allows more dangerous flash floods to occur. Passage over land has weakened Bopha to a Category 1 storm today, and the typhoon is now far enough from the Philippines that it no long poses a heavy rain threat. The island of Mindanao is highly vulnerable to flood disasters from tropical cyclones; last year's Tropical Storm Washi, which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 with 60 mph winds and torrential rains, killed over 1200 people. Before hitting the Philippines, Typhoon Bopha brought a storm surge estimated at ten feet to the island nation of Palau, where near-total destruction is being reported in some coastal areas.


Figure 1. Super Typhoon Bopha as seen from the International Space Station on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 - 155 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. The devastation brought about by powerful Typhoon Bopha is seen at Montevista township, Compostela Valley in southern Philippines Wednesday Dec. 5, 2012. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)

Extreme damage on Mindanao
Category 5 storms make landfall only once every few years somewhere in the world, and the damage they cause is invariably extreme and dramatic. According to a story at inquirer.net, a 10-hectare plantation of coconut trees in the town of Baganga, Davao Oriental, were all felled. It's takes some pretty extreme winds to bring down coconut trees, which commonly are the only things still standing after passage of a major hurricane or typhoon. Damage surveys from Tropical Cyclone Larry, which made landfall in 2006 in Australia as a Category 4 storm, indicated that coconut trees were able to withstand wind gusts of 135 mph, but toppled when the gusts reached 145 mph (thanks go to Dr. Bruce Buckley of the Reinsurance Group Australia for this info.) Aerial damage surveys from Mindanao (Video 1) show very heavy damage near where the eye came ashore, due to extreme winds and high storm surge.


Video 1. An aerial survey of damage near where the eye of Typhoon Bopha made landfall in Davao Oriental province on Mindanao Island in the Philippines shows widespread severe damage, bordering on catastrophic.

The International Red Cross is accepting donations for typhoon relief in the Philippines.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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475 dead, many homeless in PH typhoon



NEW BATAAN, Philippines - Nearly 200,000 people were homeless and 475 confirmed dead after the Philippines' worst typhoon this year, officials said Thursday, as the government appealed for international help.

Typhoon Pablo (international codename Bopha) plowed across Mindanao island on Tuesday, flattening whole towns in its path as hurricane-force winds brought torrential rain that triggered a deadly combination of floods and landslides.

Erinea Cantilla and her family of six walked barefoot for two days in a vain search of food and shelter through a muddy wasteland near the mountainous town of New Bataan after the deluge destroyed their house and banana and cocoa farm.

"Everything we had is gone. The only ones left are dead people," Cantilla told AFP as her husband, three children and a granddaughter reached the outskirts of the town, which itself had been nearly totally obliterated.

The army said it was looking for at least 377 missing people while seeking help for more than 179,000 others who sheltered in schools, gyms and other buildings after losing everything.

Officials said many victims were poor migrants who flocked to landslide-prone sites like New Bataan and the nearby town of Monkayo to farm the lower slopes of mountains or work at unregulated mines in the gold rush area.

Of the dead, 258 were found on the east coast of Mindanao while 191 were recovered in and around New Bataan and Monkayo, said Major General Ariel Bernardo, head of an army division involved in the search.

The civil defense office in Manila said 17 people were killed elsewhere in Mindanao along with nine in the central Visayan islands.

"We still have more than 377 missing and our challenge now is really to try to get to them," he told AFP.

Shell-shocked survivors scrabbled through the rubble of their homes to find anything that could be recovered, as relatives searched for missing family members among mud-caked bodies laid out in rows on tarpaulins.

Civil defense chief Benito Ramos refused to give up hope for the missing.

"There is no time limit -- as long as it takes," he told reporters when asked how long the search and rescue effort would take.

One man was rescued after being trapped for two days under rocks and debris after flash floods swept away his entire family.

Covered in mud and teary-eyed, Carlos Agang recounted how a small community of banana and coconut farmers was devastated as Bopha unleashed a wall of water.

"It's a miracle that I survived, but I might as well be dead," he said.

President Benigno Aquino has sent food and other supplies by ship to 150,000 people on Mindanao's east coast where three towns remain cut off by landslides and wrecked bridges, Interior Secretary Mar Roxas said.

Social Welfare Secretary Corazon Soliman said the government had sought help from the Swiss-based International Organization for Migration to build temporary shelters to ease the pressure on evacuation camps.

"The priority is to build bunkhouses so that there will be shelter for them," she said on ABS-CBN television.

The United States and Japan said they had offered emergency assistance.

Geologist Mahar Lagmay, head of a government project to map out all flood-prone areas of the country, said that while most people in the affected communities were aware of the danger, they did not know where to go for safety.

"Year after year, whenever there is heavy rain that comes to that place, there are landslides and many people die in those mountainous areas," he said.

Workers were struggling to reach villages due to destroyed roads and wrecked bridges, but finding corpses was not a problem due to the overpowering stench everywhere, said Francisco Macalipay, a soldier involved in the rescue.

"Just let your nose lead you to them," he told AFP.

"In a week's time I'm sure the smell of death would force the survivors to flee the town."
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
197. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #86
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
18:00 PM JST December 6 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 12.4N 116.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.2N 115.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 15.2N 115.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.7N 115.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
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You are doing a jam up job of finding information Aussie, thanks very much for all the effort to help inform us.

Y'all have a good day/evening, I am off to the salt mines to pick shrimp :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Astonishing. I knew those three towns were in the bullseye of the eyewall and were going to get it bad, but this is still sobering. Combined population of those towns is over 80,000!


'Pablo' wipes out 3 Davao Oriental towns
MANILA, Philippines %u2013 Three towns in the province of Davao Oriental%u2014Baganga, Boston and Cateel%u2014were completely wiped out by strong winds brought by typhoon %u201CPablo%u201D, Governor Cora Malanyaon said on Thursday.

Malanyaon said all structures in the 3 towns collapsed due to the typhoon.

%u201CI would have to say na 100% talaga na walang natira. Talagang nag-collapse ang lahat ng structure sa 3 towns,%u201D she told ANC%u2019s %u201CNews Now%u201D.

She said not only houses and trees were blown down, but also hospitals and churches.

%u201CLahat talaga%u2026houses, public buildings, hospitals, churches, nothing was spared. Talagang nag-collapse. If there are structures that are left, walang bubong,%u201D she said.

The typhoon slammed into Davao Oriental Tuesday morning, carrying gust winds of 210 kilometers per hour.

Malanyaon said at least 177 people, mostly those already in evacuation centers, were killed.

%u201CKung makita niyo ang situation, it%u2019s unbelievable that one could survive. Parang lindol na hindi mo maintindihan kung gaano ka-strong talaga %u2018yung typhoon na %u2018yan,%u201D she said.

Collapsed bridges

Malanyaon also said the typhoon caused a bridge-- connecting the coastal towns of Baganga, Cateel and Boston to Mati--to collapse.

She noted that the bridges connecting Baganga to Cateel and Boston also collapsed, making it difficult for authorities to distribute relief goods.

%u201CWala pang problema sa supply sa food, accessibility %u2018yung problem sa 3 isolated towns,%u201D she said.

The governor said she tapped the help of the Philippine Navy to deliver the goods via sea.

About 8,000 packs of food were delivered to Baganga while 6,000 packs were sent to Cateel and Boston via Surigao del Sur on Thursday.

The governor added that there has been %u201Ca continuous flow of supply from the DSWD.%u201D

She said the affected residents had to wait for 2 days before they were reached by authorities.

Davao Oriental has been placed under a state of calamity.

The typhoon left at least 325 people dead with more than 300 people still missing.
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Quoting pcola57:


Cool view MTWX..
Was looking at it and stopped at the last frame..
Just off the Yucatan penn. there are some intense lights out in the GOM..
I wonder what they are as I don't see any other oil rig lights in the gulf at all??

looks like you just found atlantis

google earth identifies it as amanecker-akal b and nublado, and snapshots show it well lit at night.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
193. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #85
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
15:00 PM JST December 6 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 12.3N 116.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.2N 115.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.2N 115.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.7N 115.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
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192. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 04-20122013
10:30 AM RET December 6 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1000 hPa) located at 12.9S 78.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 14.1S 73.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 14.2S 72.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.0S 72.5E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================
Within last night, deep convective activity has consolidated near the center.

ASCAT 0437 AM UTC swath reveals a clockwise circulation with weak winds near the center at about 20-25kt. TRMM 37ghz 0402 AM UTC shows an ill defined low level circulation. On the northwestern edge off the upper level ridge, system is still undergoing a northeasterly vertical wind shear constraint that is expected to relax today.

Under the steering influence of the low to mid levels subtropical ridge, system is expected to track globally west southwestwards on Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, steering flow is expected to be weak and system is therefore expected to slow down. Then on and after Sunday, the mid level ridge is expected to shift eastwards and to produce a northerly steering flow.

System is therefore expected to track southwards under the steering influence of this aforementioned mid level ridge.
On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday late. This schedule should allow the system to regularly intensify and to reach tropical cyclone stage on Saturday and maybe intense tropical cyclone stage on Sunday.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

World War 3, here we come...
It will be very hard to focus on the weather over here, if a poison wind blows through the Middle East.

However, it's not war that brings us to the end of that season. Rather, a curious weather event.

You may have heard that a man once left the earth on a cloud. I could argue that the use of that description may have some significance beyond transportation.

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Quoting RTSplayer:
I just turned 32 years old yesterday, and I only just now learned the formal definition of "Run".


Run
1, to go quickly by moving the legs more rapidly than at a walk and in such a manner that for an instant in each step all or both feet are off the ground.


I never would have known. I'm absolutely positive I was never taught that in English vocabulary.

To me, "Running" was always just a vague, abstract concept of moving faster than walking.


I never knew that either, and I consider myself quite linguistic.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
FYI......I prayed my butt off when Wilma was overhead in 2005...


Well hopefully God saw fit to re-attach your butt afterwards.
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Is anyone here currently attending FSU for meteorology? Is so, maybe I'll see ya around this spring. I'm officially in transferring for this spring semester!
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Quoting nymore:


Here is a site you may want to check for Wilma. National Hurricane Center. According to them Wilma Max winds are 185mph


Yeah, but they never flew in Wilma during peak intensity.

Also, I remembered slightly wrong. It was 209, not 207mph.


Did Wilma have 209mph sustained winds?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The first roof "snaps" of the winter have started tonight. I am in southern Ontario (Canada). We have a flat, tar-and-gravel roof that makes loud cracking sounds as the thermometer changes around the freezing point. The colder it gets, the louder the cracks. They have been known to make me jump as their favourite (active) times are from about midnight to 05:00. They also come when the roof is warming up in spring.

We had freezing rain, sleet and then snow during the day, but most of it melted during the late afternoon. Winter is here.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
The next category would probably start at 180MPH or grater wind speeds.


I love the last category. Is that what it does to your skin? (small joke)
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Quoting LargoFl:
TAMPA
5th Most Overdue City



Ninety years ago, the Tampa Bay metro area had a population of less than 150,000. Today approximately three million people live in the area, roughly 20 times more than in 1921. That is an historical year for Tampa, when on Oct. 25 a hurricane made landfall near Tarpon Springs, Fla., with an estimated Category 2 strength, producing storm surge of up to about 10 feet in Tampa Bay and causing extensive damage. What if a hurricane on a similar track struck now, and what if it was even stronger?



It was not a category 2 hurricane, NOAA says it was estimated to be major hurricane, I think I'll take their word for it.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Well, first of all you need to define what is upper limit of "normal" for hurricanes in each basin.

If Wilma was "normal" then 207mph sustained is normal, and we have only had one recorded landfall in the entire Atlantic basin within 20mph of that, and only a handful of storms that ever reached an intensity within 20mph of that.

Now Wilma was apparently 17mph stronger than Camille's landfall intensity, so maybe Wilma was the first "Black Swan".

How much stronger than the strongest theorized "normal" storm does a storm need to be before you would classify it as a "Black Swan" instead of saying that the previous theory was wrong?!


Here is a site you may want to check for Wilma. National Hurricane Center. According to them Wilma Max winds are 185mph
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Rotorua, NZ hit by tornado

Rotorua has been hit by a tornado.

The Fire Service told The Daily Post a small tornado went through Sunnex Rd at Kaharoa/Hamurana at 3.20pm today.

40 children understood to be from Mokoia Intermediate and 13 adults were at a horse riding class and were evacuated to a property on Sunnex Rd to make sure they were safe.

Some of the properties on Sunnex Rd were also evacuated.

Sunnex Rd is off Central Rd, which is off SH36.

One reader posted on our Facebook page: "We had a tornado in Hamurana - trampoline in the trees, trees down everywhere, part of the skylight ripped off."

A Rotorua man who lives on Tauranga Direct Rd said a tornado ripped through Hamurana, caused power outages, brought trees down threw a trampoline across the state highway.

The man, who didn't want to be identified, said they were left without power about 1.30pm and it only came back on shortly before 5pm.

He said the tornado hit "all over Hamurana".

"It's been hard out, it's only just stopped now," the man said.

He said trees had come down all along the area and the trampoline, which was in his backyard, had been lifted over a 2 metre hedge and "blown across a state highway".

It is also understood there is a car in a ditch at Hamurana.

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

Rare tornado hits New Zealand’s largest city, killing 3 and forcing 250 to evacuate homes

WELLINGTON, New Zealand — A rare tornado swept through neighborhoods around New Zealand’s largest city Thursday, killing three people and forcing 250 more to evacuate their homes.

The small tornado hit Hobsonville and Whenuapai, western suburbs of Auckland, during a midday storm that uprooted trees, damaged buildings and caused flooding that closed roads.

Authorities said that as well as those who died, seven people suffering a range of injuries were admitted to hospitals.

Auckland Council spokesman Glyn Walters said the storm made about 150 homes uninhabitable. He said some of those homes had roofs torn off or were severely damaged while others had more minor damage or had lost power. He said 250 residents were taken to an air force base at Whenuapai, where council staff and welfare workers were assisting them.

The worst weather appeared to have passed by midafternoon, Walters said. “It’s clearing up slightly but people need to be careful out there,” he said.

Auckland Fire Service Area Commander Larry Cocker told The Associated Press that three people had died in the storm.

Walters said one person was killed when hit by a tree and that some others who were killed or injured were workers who were building a school.

Several New Zealand media outlets reported that two of those who died were in an accident involving a slab of concrete.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Earth at Night
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Quoting sunlinepr:
‘Black Swan’ storms: rising ocean temperatures could spawn birth of super-storms
Posted on December 5, 2012


December 5, 2012 – SAN FRANCISCO — A “black swan” cyclone may sound like the latest comic book hero, but this “extreme of the extremes” is the result of climate models that suggest global warming will make future hurricanes more intense. The rare monster tropical cyclones (the term for hurricanes, typhoons and other tropical storms) could inundate coastal areas with storm surges greater than 15 feet (4.6 meters), and could even surpass 30 feet (9 m) in some regions of the world. The research was described here yesterday (Dec. 3) at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union. By simulating thousands of possible future storms, researchers identified the outliers that could hit coastal areas in the future but that wouldn’t show up in predictions based solely on historical records, said Ning Lin, a professor at Princeton University. The scientists relied on the same model the National Weather Service uses to predict hurricane activity for a given season. Lin and colleague Kerry Emanuel of MIT looked at the possible storm surge from extreme storms in three locations: Tampa Bay, Fla., Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Darwin, Australia. Lin said more than 16 feet (5 m) of surge was possible in Tampa Bay. A Florida black swan hurricane would move northward, parallel to the west Florida coast. The probability of one of these storms hitting Tampa Bay is one in 10,000, Lin said. Even though Hurricane Sandy broke several records and generated tremendous storm surge, the superstorm was not a black swan, Lin said. The simulated storm surges calculated by the model for New York, at up to 16 feet, top the record set by Hurricane Sandy, at 14 feet (4.3 m) — part of which was the high tide at the time. Tropical cyclones are already extremely rare in the Arabian Sea, with its low humidity and high wind shear, which disrupts storm formation, but one made landfall in Oman and Iran in 2007. Extreme storm surges of 30 feet (9 m) in Abu Dhabi, UAE, and Doha, Qatar, and 23 feet (7 m) in Dubai are possible as a result of a black swan storm, the researchers report in their abstract for the meeting. Finally, in Darwin, which was immensely devastated by Cyclone Tracy in 1974, a black swan storm could generate surges above 33 feet (10 m), the researchers plan to report in a talk on their findings on Tuesday. The model Lin and Emanuel used to look at the effect of black swans takes into account the effects of climate change. Rising ocean temperatures have shifted the intensity of tropical cyclones, which include hurricanes and typhoons, to higher levels. In the past century, sea surface temperatures have risen 0.9 degree Fahrenheit (0.5 degree Celsius) globally. Scientists continue to debate whether this increase in temperature will boost the intensity or decrease the number of storms. Globally, about 90 tropical cyclones, on average, occur every year. –Yahoo News


Well, first of all you need to define what is upper limit of "normal" for hurricanes in each basin.

If Wilma was "normal" then 207mph sustained is normal, and we have only had one recorded landfall in the entire Atlantic basin within 20mph of that, and only a handful of storms that ever reached an intensity within 20mph of that.

Now Wilma was apparently 17mph stronger than Camille's landfall intensity, so maybe Wilma was the first "Black Swan".

How much stronger than the strongest theorized "normal" storm does a storm need to be before you would classify it as a "Black Swan" instead of saying that the previous theory was wrong?!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
New Bryan Norcross' Official Blog
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TSR released their first 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season forecast and they see an active season. CSU will release theirs on the 7th.

Link

I wouldn't be surprised at all if we had another active season.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My past track images for Beryl and Alberto. I do not think Beryl was a hurricane so I didn't do an upgrade. My TCR for Beryl will be finished tomorrow or Friday with Chris, and maybe Debby, over the weekend. I did use some help(wiki) for the invest track. These are both images that I solely created and can not be used without consent. With this I say goodnight to everyone, good day to Aussie.

Beryl:


Alberto:
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
via NYT

Michael Schlesinger, a climatologist at the University of Illinois, has been immersed in both climate science and policy analysis for decades. Lately he has been working with younger researchers on papers aiming to clarify some of the basic questions about the human contribution to recent warming and to find a way for established and emerging industrial powers to divvy up the task of cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

two new papers:

"Causes of the Global Warming Observed since the 19th Century"

Michael J. Ring, Daniela Lindner, Emily F. Cross, Michael E. Schlesinger
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences (DOI: 10.4236/acs.2012.24035)

"A Revised Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth's Climate"

Michael E. Schlesinger, Michael J. Ring, Emily F. Cross
Journal of Environmental Protection (DOI: 10.4236/jep.2012.310151)

Read the papers, which are both in open journals



Sad reality is that these plans violate two false principles upon which the USA was founded.

1, The implicit notion that the majority is always right, and that whatever a 75% majority votes to do must be right.

2, The notion that capitalism and so-called "free markets" are a good thing.


Now ironically, the original founders weren't quite so blind, as they did make the constitution with a self-referential amendment system.


Under a "free market" the government can't actually enforce much of anything, even if its 100% verifiable to everyone's benefit, because the people get to do just about whatever they want anyway. People will still want to buy gas guzzling sports cars and watch NASCAR, and all advocates of "democracy" and "free markets" will vote against any attempt to change this, or will vote for representatives who will vote against said changes.

It works something like this:

1, We're a democracy.

2, Therefore democracy must be a good thing.

3, Anything that's not illegal is okay.

4, Even if it is illegal or harmful, we can change it's name and sell it again and that's okay! (Bath Salts, certain weight loss products, YAZ, etc.)

5, Therefore it's okay to do anything the majority believes is okay...

Such as:

a, gradually killing yourself and others by smoking cigarettes or drinking alcohol, and then blaming others when you or others get sick or killed.

b, polluting the environment to an irreparable level or to a level which probably won't be repaired for several centuries at least, forgetting all future generations.



Now of course all of those assumptions are wrong, but that's exactly how things are done in the USA, and in four of the five cases as a matter of policy!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting VaStormGuy:
Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order

World War 3, here we come...
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
NEW BATAAN, Philippines (UPDATE) - The death toll from a typhoon that ravaged the Philippines jumped to 325 on Thursday with hundreds more missing, as rescuers battled to reach areas cut off by floods and mudslides




Um, I think you have me on ignore. I posted that article this morning, almost 2hrs before you
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
‘Black Swan’ storms: rising ocean temperatures could spawn birth of super-storms
Posted on December 5, 2012


December 5, 2012 – SAN FRANCISCO — A “black swan” cyclone may sound like the latest comic book hero, but this “extreme of the extremes” is the result of climate models that suggest global warming will make future hurricanes more intense. The rare monster tropical cyclones (the term for hurricanes, typhoons and other tropical storms) could inundate coastal areas with storm surges greater than 15 feet (4.6 meters), and could even surpass 30 feet (9 m) in some regions of the world. The research was described here yesterday (Dec. 3) at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union. By simulating thousands of possible future storms, researchers identified the outliers that could hit coastal areas in the future but that wouldn’t show up in predictions based solely on historical records, said Ning Lin, a professor at Princeton University. The scientists relied on the same model the National Weather Service uses to predict hurricane activity for a given season. Lin and colleague Kerry Emanuel of MIT looked at the possible storm surge from extreme storms in three locations: Tampa Bay, Fla., Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Darwin, Australia. Lin said more than 16 feet (5 m) of surge was possible in Tampa Bay. A Florida black swan hurricane would move northward, parallel to the west Florida coast. The probability of one of these storms hitting Tampa Bay is one in 10,000, Lin said. Even though Hurricane Sandy broke several records and generated tremendous storm surge, the superstorm was not a black swan, Lin said. The simulated storm surges calculated by the model for New York, at up to 16 feet, top the record set by Hurricane Sandy, at 14 feet (4.3 m) — part of which was the high tide at the time. Tropical cyclones are already extremely rare in the Arabian Sea, with its low humidity and high wind shear, which disrupts storm formation, but one made landfall in Oman and Iran in 2007. Extreme storm surges of 30 feet (9 m) in Abu Dhabi, UAE, and Doha, Qatar, and 23 feet (7 m) in Dubai are possible as a result of a black swan storm, the researchers report in their abstract for the meeting. Finally, in Darwin, which was immensely devastated by Cyclone Tracy in 1974, a black swan storm could generate surges above 33 feet (10 m), the researchers plan to report in a talk on their findings on Tuesday. The model Lin and Emanuel used to look at the effect of black swans takes into account the effects of climate change. Rising ocean temperatures have shifted the intensity of tropical cyclones, which include hurricanes and typhoons, to higher levels. In the past century, sea surface temperatures have risen 0.9 degree Fahrenheit (0.5 degree Celsius) globally. Scientists continue to debate whether this increase in temperature will boost the intensity or decrease the number of storms. Globally, about 90 tropical cyclones, on average, occur every year. –Yahoo News
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171. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #16
TROPICAL STORM PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 AM PhST December 6 2012
==============================

"PABLO" has slowed down as it continues to move away from the country

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Pablo [978 hPa] located at 12.4°N 116.5°E or 380 km west of Coron, Palawan has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots gusting up to 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 4 knots.

Additional Information
========================

All Public Storm Warning Signals are now lowered..

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-18 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon and the eastern seaboard of southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
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via NYT

Michael Schlesinger, a climatologist at the University of Illinois, has been immersed in both climate science and policy analysis for decades. Lately he has been working with younger researchers on papers aiming to clarify some of the basic questions about the human contribution to recent warming and to find a way for established and emerging industrial powers to divvy up the task of cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

two new papers:

"Causes of the Global Warming Observed since the 19th Century"

Michael J. Ring, Daniela Lindner, Emily F. Cross, Michael E. Schlesinger
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences (DOI: 10.4236/acs.2012.24035)

"A Revised Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth's Climate"

Michael E. Schlesinger, Michael J. Ring, Emily F. Cross
Journal of Environmental Protection (DOI: 10.4236/jep.2012.310151)

Read the papers, which are both in open journals
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I just turned 32 years old yesterday, and I only just now learned the formal definition of "Run".


Run
1, to go quickly by moving the legs more rapidly than at a walk and in such a manner that for an instant in each step all or both feet are off the ground.


I never would have known. I'm absolutely positive I was never taught that in English vocabulary.

To me, "Running" was always just a vague, abstract concept of moving faster than walking.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
NEW BATAAN, Philippines (UPDATE) - The death toll from a typhoon that ravaged the Philippines jumped to 325 on Thursday with hundreds more missing, as rescuers battled to reach areas cut off by floods and mudslides due to typhoon "Pablo" (international codename, Bopha).

"We have 325 dead and this is expected to rise because many more are missing," civil defense chief Benito Ramos told a news conference.

Ramos noted that figures on the fatalities and missing persons were "rising rapidly from single- to triple-digits" as rescuers reach more remote areas.

In a report released Thursday morning, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said 379 were missing and 411 were injured.

"Communications are bogged down, there is no electricity, roads and bridges have been destroyed," Ramos said.

"We're still on a search-and-rescue mode," he added.
...

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/12/06/1 2/325-dead-hundreds-still-missing-due-pablo


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Quoting AussieStorm:
Typhoon 'Pablo' strikes Mindanao Photo's(warning** Some of graphic nature)
Absolutely horrible...i do not have words except heartwrenching and sad
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Quoting VaStormGuy:
Syria loads chemical weapons into bombs; military awaits Assad's order


This is very unsettling news..
Insane..
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Quoting MTWX:


I know exactly what you are talking about! I looked into it... there is a small cluster of islands and atolls out there, but I still haven't figured out what's there to produce that much light!


Weird..I couldn't figure it out either..
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164. MTWX
Quoting pcola57:


Cool view MTWX..
Was looking at it and stopped at the last frame..
Just off the Yucatan penn. there are some intense lights out in the GOM..
I wonder what they are as I don't see any other oil rig lights in the gulf at all??


I know exactly what you are talking about! I looked into it a while back... there is a small cluster of islands and atolls out there, but I still haven't figured out what's there to produce that much light!
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To post 158:

Wow, im suprised... Did it go through downtown?
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Quoting MTWX:


Just noticed it too Pat! Low is looking pretty tropical to me. Tightened up nicely this afternoon, but looks to be diminishing a bit now...

Link


Cool view MTWX..
Was looking at it and stopped at the last frame..
Just off the Yucatan penn. there are some intense lights out in the GOM..
I wonder what they are as I don't see any other oil rig lights in the gulf at all??
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GMZ001-060915-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
425 PM EST WED DEC 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 1016 MB OFF
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W...ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TO
NEAR 25N96W. LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT NW AND INLAND FRI BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHILE FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PREVAIL E OF LOW
THROUGH THU. FRESH SE FLOW IS EXPECTED WESTERN GULF FRI AND SAT
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NE OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



It's occluded and weakening.


Yeah I was hoping for some rain but I guess we aren't getting it..maybe tomorrow if we are lucky..sure could use it at my house..
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159. MTWX
Quoting Patrap:
Northern Gulf of Mexico GOES Atmospheric Imagery
Below is the latest available imagery from GOES GVAR sensor depicting the low cloud conditions in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.

To view another area, visit the Atmospheric Imagery homepage.

Low Cloud Imagery







Just noticed it too Pat! Low is looking pretty tropical to me. Tightened up nicely this afternoon, but looks to be diminishing a bit now...

Link
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Deaths as tornado hits Auckland

THREE people have been killed after severe weather - including an apparent tornado - hit Auckland, New Zealand.

The storm hit the western suburbs of New Zealand's biggest city at 12.15pm local time (1015 AEDT).

NewstalkZB has reported that two people are dead and a third is missing after a tornado ripped through the west Auckland suburb of Hobsonville.

A Fire Service spokesman said two people were killed when a concrete slab landed on a truck at a building site where a new high school was being constructed.

There were reports of people trapped in buildings after damage and roofs lifting when the tornado hit.

The Fire Service was working through dozens of calls after the tornado hit .

An ambulance spokeswoman said it was dealing with five separate incidents involving seven people in Hobsonville.

A heavy thunderstorm swept through parts of west Auckland with downpours causing localised flooding in some areas.

Weatherwatch.co.nz says another band of thunderstorms and torrential downpours were moving back to the area.

"We are advising people to remain indoors until the torrential rain and possible thunder has passed, most likely over the next hour or two,'' head weather analyst Philip Duncan said.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
TSR released their first 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season forecast and they see an active season. CSU will release theirs on the 7th.

Link
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NDDRMC: We were more prepared for 'Pablo'

MANILA, Philippines – The national government and local officials were more prepared for typhoon “Pablo” compared to tropical storm “Sendong”, which claimed more than a thousand lives in December last year, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said Wednesday.

“There’s an improvement as of last [tropical storm] Sendong that was in December 16 last year. There is no point in comparison in so far as fatalities because it has its own system of devastation. If you say that Sendong is stronger than Pablo, you may have a point,” NDRRMC executive director Benito Ramos told reporters on Wednesday.

Ramos lauded the improvement in the preparation efforts, noting that the public is more cooperative this time around.

“There was an improvement in the preparation of local government, national government and our own people. When we said evacuate, they did,” said Ramos.

“It should have been triple the number of casualties if they did not heed our call,” he added.

Ramos also lauded weather bureau PAGASA for their accurate forecast.

“PAGASA did a splendid job. Eight days before it made landfall, PAGASA already informed us,” he said.

The NDRRMC’s official death toll due to typhoon “Pablo” is at 95. “Sendong”, which also hit Mindanao last year, left 1,268 people dead.

NDRRMC also said 61 people were injured due to strong winds and heavy rains brought by Pablo.

Most of the casualties were from Compostela Valley, where 66 people were confirmed killed in a flashflood.

Ramos, meanwhile, clarified that only one soldier, identified as staff Sgt. Maximo Olivares, drowned in the flood.

Evacuation centers

Ramos said that as of 1 p.m., there are 36,142 families or 169,907 individuals staying in evacuation centers in Visayas and Mindanao.

A state of calamity has already been declared in Surigao del Sur, where 63,635 people have been affected.

Ramos called on the public to donate food and clothing to the affected residents.

“In the spirit of kabayanihan, I appeal for their generosity so that we can assist our own people,” he said.

Pablo further weakened after making landfall in northern Palawan early Wednesday.

Northern Palawan and the Calamian group of islands remain under signal number 3.

Pablo is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Thursday evening.
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(Translated) PNoy: No blame game for now on Pablo

MANILA, Philippines - President Aquino on Wednesday said he intends to visit areas affected by typhoon Paul in Compostela Valley and Davao Oriental. He also appealed to local officials not to use the disaster for politicking ahead of the 2013 elections.
 
The date of Aquino's visit to disaster-hit areas has yet to be determined. For now, Aquino has sent the Department of the Interior and Local Government Secretary Mar Roxas to Mindanao to assess the damage caused by the typhoon.
 
The President is particularly interested to know the circumstances that led to the increase in the death toll. He mentioned the incident in Compostela Valley where a flash flood washed away an Army detachment, killing dozens.
 
Aquino has asked DOST Secretary Mario Montejo to find out if the site is located in an area already previously indentified as a danger zone.
 
Speaking to reporters, Aquino said that this is not the time to blame those who may be held liable for the casualties. He said the priority now is search and rescue and to make sure that the needs of evacuees are addressed.
 
"Here on the storm e. So we prioritize first manigurado that there need to be rescued rescue Nare: working on 'our evacuation centers.Tapos those with ongoing assessment as to those who were previously seems less risky might turn water to inundate today and there was very risky, "Aquino said.
 
"So there are ongoing reassessment 'Nung areas (Which) has the potential to be a dangerous place. So also ongoing that. Several priorities and then maybe 'if those failed. "
 
While noting that the casualty count this time is relatively lower than the number of deaths caused by tropical storm Sendong last year, Aquino said that every casualty is a cause of distress and that he wants to strive for better performance on the part of government to avoid casualties.
 
"We will always try to seek better and better performances," he said.
 
He said the Philippine Coast Guard was "effective" in Preventing maritime disasters by not allowing vessels to sail sea.
 
He also said that flood sensors worked.

"So far we 'Sendong.' The size of inasenso. Operate 'those sensors nakabit of Project NOAH Iligan and Cagayan especially for. It's still an ongoing project. He also pretty intolerable 'those 18 river basins should monitor imo. But, again, any single casualty is a cause of distress, "he said.
 
Aquino also lauded the performance of PAGASA, saying its weather forecasts local authorities have given adequate time to prepare for the storm.
 
Aquino defended the weather agency from allegations that it failed to identify the exact path of the typhoon, saying that this is why the people have been advised to closely and regularly monitor weather bulletins, pointing out that storms can change course anytime.
 
"Let us not forget this storm, we are not driving. And therefore we do hourly advisories is because you could then turn. Far, far it's probably the difference when you start saying we here in Aurora, in the northern part of Luzon, Southern Tagalog embark done and then Metro Manila. Quite far the difference 'non. And "Nung I spoke to you the other day, I mentioned that there is no driver to monitor the storm so we and maybe change," Aquino said.
 
Sufficient funds
 
Aquino said there are enough funds available to cover expenses in the aftermath of the typhoon.
 
"Secretary (Butch) Abad informed me last night that there is at least P8-billion ready to take care of all of the expenses necessary here and also in the necessary emergency infrastructure," those that the roads were closed, etcetera, if there is damage . There is sufficient fund at this point in time, "he said.
 
The funds were augmented with revenues from the sale of the FTI complex in Taguig.
 
"These are revenues from unexpected sources. This is with the sale of the FTI, "Aquino said.

'Do not use disasters for politics'
 
In His speech before the League of Municipalities General Assembly held in Manila Hotel, Aquino asked local politicians not to use disasters as opportunities to promote themselves and urged them to ensure that the people's needs are met.
 
"I hope the cooperation of every municipality in the country: we had not we exploit opportunities like this for mamulitika, or magpapogi for the next election. Please life of our countrymen are at stake here, and as we proved again and again in the past storm, collaboration is key to exclude the risk of our fellow Filipinos, "he said.
 
He also renewed His appeal to concerned residents to heed the call of authorities for them to evacuate.
 
"I also beg our people: If you must evacuate, evacuate immediately to please us. Do not wait another four or five other guests of the rescue units before we leave. Taxes are the life-work of our rescue teams, so major help please if we stay disciplined, calm and cooperative while they isinasalba us, "Aquino said.

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325 dead, hundreds missing due to 'Pablo'

NEW BATAAN, Philippines (UPDATED) - The death toll from a typhoon that ravaged the Philippines jumped to 325 on Wednesday with hundreds more missing, as rescuers battled to reach areas cut off by floods and mudslides.

Typhoon Pablo (international codename, Bopha) slammed into the southern island of Mindanao Tuesday, toppling trees and blowing away thousands of homes with 210-kilometre (130-mile) per hour gusts before easing and heading towards the South China Sea.

Most of the deaths were in the gold-rush mountain towns of New Bataan and Monkayo due to typhoon-spawned landslides and flash floods there, civil defence chief Benito Ramos told reporters.

Twenty-one people were killed in other parts of the southern island of Mindanao and the central islands, he added.

Cabinet members Mar Roxas and Corazon Soliman, who flew to the south to inspect the damage, described scenes of utter devastation with thousands of houses ripped apart and corpses lying on the ground.

"These are whole families, six or seven names with the same surnames. It is saddening to think entire families have been washed away," Interior Secretary Roxas said.

"There is hardly any structure that is undamaged," he said in an interview over ABS-CBN television.

"We need to rush to these areas body bags, medicines, dry clothes and most importantly tents, because survivors are living out in the open," Social Welfare Secretary Soliman told AFP.

Bodies caked in mud were being transported on the back of army trucks and laid out in rows on tarpaulins where relatives searching for missing family members broke down as they identified the shrouded corpses of loved ones.

Shell-shocked survivors scrabbled through the rubble of their homes to find anything that could be recovered among a surrounding wasteland of flattened banana and coconut trees.

Ramos said over 250 other people were still missing, while 401 others were treated for injuries.

About 167,000 people remained huddled in evacuation centres, mostly crowded schoolhouses, gyms and other government buildings, officials said.

Meanwhile, rescue personnel still struggled to reach areas cut off by the storm where many more casualties might be found.

President Benigno Aquino said he hoped the country was learning from its frequent natural disasters, including the roughly 20 cyclones that hit each year.

"Any single casualty is a cause for distress. Our aim must always be about finding ways to lessen them," he told reporters in Manila, while pointing out the "big difference" in casualty counts compared with previous storms.

The more than 500 dead or missing in Pablo was still below the 1,200 deaths from tropical storm Sendong (Washi), which hit in December 2011, leaving hundreds of thousands homeless in Mindanao, he said.

Aquino said the government was investigating why an army patrol base in New Bataan, which was washed away in the flash floods, had been located in a flood-prone area.

Officials were also checking reports that an evacuation centre there was among the structures wiped out in the floods, the president added.


"According to (survivors), there is a small lake on the mountain that gave way so the waters flowed down, not just along the rivers... but all across, like a waterfall, bringing a slurry that covered the whole town," Roxas said.

One shelter there had caved in during the typhoon, forcing the people inside to flee to an even smaller building, he said.

Pablo was the most powerful of the 16 storms to pummel the Philippines this year, though Mindanao is not usually on the front line.

Regional military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Paniza said three soldiers taking part in rescue operations were killed in New Bataan, with eight others from the same unit among the missing.

"It is quite sad and tragic. They were actually there to be ready to help our countrymen who may be in trouble," Roxas said.
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‘Waters rose so suddenly’



NEW BATAAN, Compostela Valley—Juniper Serato scanned the bodies lined up at the public gymnasium in this farming town that bore the brunt of winds gusting up to 160 kilometers per hour when Typhoon “Pablo” made landfall in eastern Mindanao before dawn on Tuesday.
Serato was looking for his family of six, including his parents, who were still missing a day after they experienced the fury of the first typhoon to hit the area in memory.
“I have difficulty recognizing the faces because they’re bloated,” he told this reporter. As he walked carefully he stopped by a familiar face, a friend. “I know him,” he said.
Gov. Arthur Uy of Compostela Valley said raging waters and mud from the mountains swept through school buildings, covered courts, town halls and health centers where residents had taken shelter.
“The waters came so suddenly and unexpectedly, and the winds were so fierce, that compounded the loss of lives and livelihood,” Uy told Reuters in a telephone interview.
He said water catchment basins for farms on top of the mountains gave way due to the torrential rains, sending down heavy volumes of water to the flatlands.
Damage to agriculture and infrastructure in Compostela Valley province could reach at least P4 billion, with the typhoon destroying 70-80 percent of plantations, mostly bananas for export, Uy said.
Around 245 people were still missing in New Bataan alone, Uy said, adding the area was initially cut off by roadblocks. Communications were down and power had yet to be restored in the area.
“The last thing my mother said was ‘I love you,’” said Julius Rebucas, whose mother and brother were caught in flash floods in Compostela Valley. “It’s sad because I no longer have a family.”
As of noon Wednesday, 79 bodies had been recovered in New Bataan, including four soldiers of the 66th Infantry Division, whose encampment set up by two platoons was washed away in flash floods ignited by Pablo as it swept ashore from the Pacific, where it emerged as “Bopha,” the international designation. Another 21 people were killed in Moncayo, also in Compostela Valley.
Official death toll: 274(Now 325)
All told, 216 people died, according to a count as of 4:30 p.m. by Inquirer reporters at the scene and accounts by municipal, civil defense and military officials.
Aside from the fatalities in New Bataan and Moncayo, there were also 110 deaths in Davao Oriental, two in Misamis Oriental, two in Misamis Occidental, one in Bukidnon and one in Cebu.
In Manila, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) put the official death toll at 274 as of 7 p.m. The NDRRMC said another 279 people were missing and 339 injured.
The Philippine Army’s 10th Infantry Division said there were 224 reported dead in Compostela Valley and Davao Oriental as of 4 p.m. Wednesday.
The NDRRMC also said that 36,000 families—around 180,000 people—were in evacuation centers.
President Aquino on Wednesday sent Interior Secretary Manuel Roxas to the disaster zone to check on the extent of damage. He said P8 billion would be available for relief. Malacañang said Mr. Aquino himself was planning to visit the typhoon-hit provinces.
It was the second whammy to hit Mindanao, which Tropical Storm “Sendong” pummeled leaving 1,500 people dead last year.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration on Wednesday lifted storm signals in all but the provinces of Palawan, Oriental and Occidental Mindoro and Antique as the 16th typhoon of the season headed out into the West Philippine Sea.
Pablo weakened after it raked Central Mindanao and provinces in the southern section of the Visayas, sparing from damage beaches and dive resorts in northern Palawan Wednesday.
Col. Leopoldo Galon, spokesperson of the Eastern Mindanao Command, said soldiers from the 66th Infantry Division were in a temporary camp at Andap village, which was hit by flash floods on Tuesday morning. Two platoons, of about 40 soldiers, survived, Galon said.
Maj. Gen. Ariel Bernardo, commander of the 10th Infantry Division, said two dozen people had been pulled out under layers of mud and were being treated in local hospitals. Video showed dozens of bloodied survivors, their faces covered with thick cake of mud, at a shelter in the province.
Monster winds
In Davao Oriental, the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (PDRRMC) recorded as of 3:30 a.m. Wednesday 110 people killed, including 59 in Cateel, and 31 in Baganga, where Pablo made its landfall from the Pacific, 15 in Boston and one each in Tarragona and Manay towns.
Senior Supt. Rommil Mitra, police chief of Davao Oriental, said most of those killed in Cateel and Boston towns were crushed by fallen trees, collapsed homes and flying debris.
“The winds were really very strong,” Mitra said. “I was told the force of the wind could even lift an Army truck loaded with troops from the ground.”
The towns of Baganga, Cateel and Boston have remained inaccessible because the Mandulog Bridge in Caraga town collapsed at the height of the storm.
Cateel wiped out
“There’s still no electricity there. The communication lines are still down,” Galon said.
“There are very few structures left standing in the town of Cateel,” Social Welfare Secretary Corazon Soliman told Agence France-Presse.
“We need to rush to these areas body bags, medicines, dry clothes and most importantly tents, because survivors are living out in the open after the typhoon blew away homes and rooftops,” she said.
“The bodies are left lying on the ground in the open in New Bataan and we don’t want to risk the spread of disease,” Soliman said.
In Misamis Oriental, two men died when a tree fell on their houses in Salay and Lagonglong town, said Maricel Rivera, the provincial information officer.
Rivera also said 3,467 families moved to evacuation centers across the province’s 23 towns and two cities.
In Bukidnon, Valencia City Mayor Leandro Catarata said a child died after a coconut tree fell on him. Catarata also said two bridges were damaged by swollen rivers.
In Misamis Occidental, two persons died, according to Paul de Barras, PDRRMC officer. He said Jigger Ian Gamotin, 31, of Panaon town, and John Sumile Bonasil, 17, of Baliangao town, were hit by falling trees.
Search and rescue
Most of the affected areas remained isolated due to power outages, lack of communications and destroyed roads and bridges. Helicopters were ferrying troops in search and rescue operations.
Thousands of people remained in temporary shelter areas as local officials appealed for food, water and warm clothes for displaced families. Schools remained closed and dozens of domestic flights were suspended Wednesday.
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Interesting!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
This out the Mobile NWS regarding the system in the GOM.


SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DESPITE ITS FORMIDABLE
COMMA CLOUD APPEARANCE, A LOW OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA IS WEAKER THAN IT
LOOKS...MUCH WEAKER. IT IS PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND
MODEL CALCULATIONS SHOW THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL DISSIPATE AND GET
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES THROUGH THURSDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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