About Jeff Masters
Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
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Lessons from 2012: Droughts, not Hurricanes, are the Greater Danger
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:34 PM GMT on November 16, 2012
The colossal devastation and loss of life wrought by Hurricane Sandy makes the storm one of the greatest disasters in U.S. history. The storm and its aftermath have rightfully dominated the weather headlines this year, and Sandy will undoubtedly be remembered as the most notable global weather event of 2012. But shockingly, Sandy is probably not even the deadliest or most expensive weather disaster this year in the United States--Sandy's damages of perhaps $50 billion will likely be overshadowed by the huge costs of the great drought of 2012. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since 1954 are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities this week. “If the U.S. were growing at 4 percent, it wouldn’t be as big an issue, but at 2 percent, it’s noticed,” said Joseph LaVorgna, the chief U.S. economist at Deutsche. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August. While Sandy's death toll of 113 in the U.S. is the second highest death toll from a U.S. hurricane since 1972, it is likely to be exceeded by the death toll from the heat waves that accompanied this year's drought. The heat waves associated with the U.S. droughts of 1980 and 1988 had death tolls of 10,000 and 7,500 respectively, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, and the heat wave associated with the $12 billion 2011 Texas drought killed 95 Americans. With July 2012 the hottest month in U.S. history, I expect the final heat death toll in the U.S. this year will be much higher than Sandy's death toll.
Figure 1. The top-ten list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) is dominated by hurricanes and droughts. Three of the top five disasters are droughts. The numbers for Hurricane Sandy and the 2012 drought are preliminary numbers from media sources, and are not from NCDC.
Drought: civilization's greatest natural enemy
People fear storms, and spectacular and devastating storms like Hurricane Sandy and Hurricane Katrina have stirred more debate in the U.S. about taking action against climate change than any other weather event. But I argue that this attention is misplaced. Drought is our greatest enemy. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. The history of civilization is filled with tales of great storms that have killed thousands and caused untold suffering and destruction. But cities impacted by great storms inevitably recover and rebuild, often stronger than before. I expect that New York City, the coast of New Jersey, and other areas battered by Sandy will do likewise. But drought can crash civilizations. Drought experts Justin Sheffield and Eric Wood of Princeton, in their 2011 book, Drought, list more than ten civilizations and cultures that probably collapsed because of drought. Among them: The Mayans of 800 - 1000 AD. The Anasazi culture in the Southwest U.S. in the 11th - 12th centuries. The ancient Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia. The Chinese Ming Dynasty of 1500 - 1730. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. 
Figure 2. Ruins of the Cliff Palace at Mesa Verde National Park in Colorado. Beginning in 1150 AD, North America experienced a 300-year drought called the Great Drought. This drought has often been cited as a primary cause of the collapse of the ancient Anasazi civilization in the Southwest U.S., and abandonment of places like the Cliff Palace.
The coming great droughts
We should not assume that the 21st century global civilization is immune from collapse due to drought. If we continue on our current path of ever-increasing emissions of carbon dioxide, the hotter planet that we will create will surely spawn droughts far more intense than any seen in recorded history, severely testing the ability of our highly interconnected global economy to cope. The coming great drought disasters will occur at a time when climate change is simultaneously creating record rainfall and flooding in areas that happen to be in the way of storms. Global warming puts more heat energy into the atmosphere. That means more more water will evaporate from the oceans to create heavier rains and make storms stronger, and there will be more heat energy to increase the intensity of heat waves and droughts. It all depends upon if you happen to lie on the prevailing storm track or not which extreme you'll experience. In the future, if you're not being cooked in a record drought, you're going to be washed away in a record flood. Just ask the residents of the Midwest. In 2011, residents of the Midwest endured the largest floods on record on their three great rivers--the Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio. In 2012, the same region endured their worst drought since 1954, and a top-ten warmest summer.
The nation's top scientific research group, the National Research Council, released an 18-month study on November 9, 2012, titled, "Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis". They stated: “It is prudent to expect that over the course of a decade some climate events--including single events, conjunctions of events occurring simultaneously or in sequence in particular locations, and events affecting globally integrated systems that provide for human well-being--will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global system to manage and that have global security implications serious enough to compel international response.” In other words, states will fail, millions will suffer famine, mass migrations and war will break out, and national and international agencies will be too overwhelmed to cope. We were very lucky that the 2012 U.S. drought did not occur the year following the great 2010 Russian drought. That drought drove up food prices to the highest levels since 1992, and helped trigger social unrest that led to the "Arab Spring" revolts that overthrew multiple governments. Severe droughts in back-to-back years in major world grain-producing areas could cause unprecedented global famine and unrest, and climate change is steadily increasing the odds of this happening.
Figure 3. Black Sunday: On April 14, 1935 a "Black Blizzard" hit Oklahoma and Texas with 60 mph winds, sweeping up topsoil loosened by the great Dust Bowl drought that began in the early 1930s.
Learning from the past: the great Dust Bowl of the 1930s
"The clouds appeared and went away, and in a while they did not try anymore."
- Nobel Prize-winning author John Steinbeck in his 1939 classic, The Grapes of Wrath, describing the weather in Oklahoma during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s.
No disaster in American history caused more suffering than the legendary Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s, as year after year of desperately dry conditions across the Great Plains dried out farmlands, forcing 2.5 million people to leave their homes and seek a better life elsewhere. At its peak in July 1934, drought conditions covered an astonishing 80% of the contiguous U.S., making it our largest drought ever recorded. The true cost of the drought is impossible to calculate, but the amount of government assistance paid out was $13 billion in today's dollars. The heat waves that accompanied the drought killed at least 5,000 people, making it one of the deadliest disasters in U.S. history. Fortunately, a repeat of the dust storms and hardships of the 1930s Dust Bowl are much less likely now, because we learned from our mistakes. In a 2009 paper titled, Amplification of the North American "Dust Bowl" drought through human-induced land degradation, a team of scientists led by Benjamin Cook of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory explained the situation that led up to the Dust Bowl:
During the 1920s, agriculture in the United States expanded into the central Great Plains. Much of the original, drought-resistant prairie grass was replaced with drought-sensitive wheat. With no drought plan and few erosion-control measures in place, this led to large-scale crop failures at the initiation of the drought, leaving fields devegetated and barren, exposing easily eroded soil to the winds. This was the source of the major dust storms and atmospheric dust loading of the period on a level unprecedented in the historical record.
Improved farming practices adopted after the great Dust Bowl allowed the Midwest to endure the great multi-year drought of 1951 - 1954 without the kind of damage the Dust Bowl caused. Those improved farming practices, in combination with the development of improved drought-resistant grains, have helped keep the damages from the 2012 drought down. But climate change has the potential to bring far more severe droughts to the U.S. than anything seen in American history. The great drought of 2012 is a harbinger of the future, and we have a significant challenge to meet if we are to continue feeding the world in the face of intensifying droughts during the coming decades. We need to stop the unsustainable pumping of our aquifers, move even more aggressively to develop improved drought-resistant grains, and practice better water conservation if we are to avoid future Dust Bowl-scale tragedies.
Renowned documentary film maker Ken Burns debuts his new film, "The Dust Bowl", on PBS this Sunday and Monday, November 18 and 19, 2012, from 8 - 10 pm EST. Catch the trailer at pbs.org. It promises to be a fascinating and highly relevant story, told by one of America's great story-tellers. PBS is also airing a show on Hurricane Sandy, Inside the Megastorm, on NOVA on Sunday night November 18, at 7 pm. I helped them out this week with fact checking and graphics for the show.
Jeff Masters
Drought (GaryVA)
Most of Texas has been under serious drought conditions for about a year and a half. Much of the state is under Extreme Drought conditions. The agricultural/ranching/rural areas of the county are most affected, as the drought has a direct and significant impact on the livelihood of those making their living in a way dependent on nature. The importance of rain to daily life is reflected in this sign at a church in rural George West, Texas, in Live Oak, County.
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876. VR46L
7:09 PM GMT on November 19, 2012Actually everyone has a right to their opinions and beliefs in my opinion ...
875. eyeofbetsy
4:57 PM GMT on November 19, 2012Some scientist suggest that "nothing" needs to be redefined, in that nothing might be something. My definition would be that nothing is the absence of everything except the nothing.
874. Neapolitan
4:53 PM GMT on November 19, 2012The thing is, I believe in that which empirical science explains. That's my right. Others choose to jettison part or all of that science, and instead go with that which is based on nothing more than ancient superstition, legend, and myth. That's their right. But answer me this: which of those sides deserves to be "taken seriously"?
873. bohonkweatherman
4:51 PM GMT on November 19, 2012872. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:44 PM GMT on November 19, 2012871. SouthShoreLI
4:42 PM GMT on November 19, 2012I watched them both, as well another documentary on Ch. 13 by NOVA. IMO, they were all excellent. Discovery had more home video footage. History had more personal accounts. I'd watch both.
870. slinkyredfoot
4:41 PM GMT on November 19, 2012869. Grothar
4:38 PM GMT on November 19, 2012They are so few, we can actually name them.
867. RitaEvac
4:37 PM GMT on November 19, 2012866. Draefendscur
4:34 PM GMT on November 19, 2012Hmm.
I am a professional astronomer 'in training' and I can tell you that the overwhelming majority of astrophysicists 'believe' (I prefer to say we 'accept', because belief implies a lack of supporting evidence) the Big Bang theory, particularly the Lambda-CDM model of cosmology with a Hot Big Bang as its origin. The leading alternative was the Steady State theory, which was effectively discarded many decades ago. There is no other model for the universe's creation and evolution that even remotely agrees with observations.
The idea that the Big Bang started from nothing is an extremely common misconception. The Big Bang theory makes no such claim and in fact makes no claims about the nature of the exact moment of the event itself, let alone 'before' it. What it discusses is how the universe evolved since its formation, from the present day all the way back to less than a microsecond after the first instant (which is pretty dang impressive if you ask me). The reason we can't go back any further is because it would require an understanding of quantum gravity which we do not yet have. (Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity are by themselves extremely powerful theories, but they don't work well together). String Theory is one of the current lines of thought that may resolve the incompatibility of QM and GR, though I do not study String Theory specifically.
As for 'lack of evidence', I suggest you actually pick up an astronomy textbook or start reading some scholarly articles. Evidence for the Big Bang includes Hubble's Law, the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation, the observed evolution of structure in the universe, and the observed abundance of elements in the universe. These are all explained beautifully by the Big Bang theory, and thus far no other theory can.
We do not like to say 'proof' in science, but if you must insist on 'proof' then the CMBR alone would probably be satisfactory. It is the remnant radiation field from the era of Recombination, when the primordial plasma had finally cooled and expanded enough to form the first atoms and the universe turned transparent. This happened about 300,000 years after the Big Bang, or when the universe was about 0.002% of its present age. Look up some studies of the WMAP mission data if you are interested in learning more.
865. RitaEvac
4:31 PM GMT on November 19, 2012The global factors that produced the incredible 2011 drought remain in place and in many areas of the state, while the drought of 2011 was eased it was not ended with the past spring and summer wet weather and water supply lakes especially in west and central TX remain at dangerously low levels. The failure of ENSO warm conditions (El Nino) to fully develop and support weather pattern teleconnection changes into the southern plains thus far this fall are concerning. With the overall background pattern supportive of a dry southern plains climate and this not likely to change for the next several years, a continuation of the long term drought and increased severity of drought appears at least possible this winter into next spring. Expected above normal rainfall this winter and next spring looks less likely with the failure of El Nino development and in fact the current pattern of such little rainfall over the past 6 weeks is very similar to the fall of 2010 (or the start of the 2011 drought). Given already low lake storage levels and significantly low soil moisture values over much of the state, lack of winter rainfall in 2012-2013 will have significant impacts and there is potential for severe or even exceptional drought development by spring.
Additionally, with winter freezes upon the region and the curing of fine fuels, the threat for increased wildfire activity is likely without widespread wetting rainfall. KBDI values are already above 600 in several counties with values above 700 considered critical. Vegetation health already stressed from the 2011 drought will suffer if rainfall remains on the low side prior to the onset of warmer temperatures next spring. Critical fire weather days behind cold frontal passages will be increasing if widespread rains do not occur.
Lake Storage Conditions:
Lake Buchanan: -25.07 (43%)
Lake Conroe: -3.23 (85%)
Lake Houston: -.24 (97%)
Lake Livingston: -.62 (97%)
Lake Travis: -48.26 (40%)
Sam Rayburn: -4.41 (83%)
Lake Somerville: -2.21 (84%)
Lake Texana: -1.73 (90%)
Toledo Bend: -4.28 (84%)
Total state of Texas water storage supply is at 65.97% which is down from 68.10% a month ago and 77.68% 6 months ago.
864. ILwthrfan
4:31 PM GMT on November 19, 2012The most pondering single question one can make with respect to religion. Use Occam's razor with respect to the big bang.
How can you have nothing before you have something? Some outside force would have to create that moment for it to exist. Even if everything is cyclical how does that something exist without never being created?
If its one thing we can deduce from what we know now it's that to create something you need an outside force or variable. You can not create with nothing. Therefor to me something or some outside or unknown force would have had to create the process to begin with, even if its cyclic. It has to have a starting point.
863. SteveDa1
4:30 PM GMT on November 19, 2012I am insane then. :) Thanks for confirming my doubts.
In all seriousness, I strongly believe that life was created by chance on this earth, just like it probably has millions of times in other places in the universe. I also believe that the Big Bang wasn't a unique event or the beginning of creation, for that matter. I also don't believe in time, to me it's just an illusion.
As you have probably guessed by now, I don't believe in anything.
Anyway, I don't think religious individuals are insane, neither should you perceive people like me as insane. ;)
862. Skyepony (Mod)
4:28 PM GMT on November 19, 2012861. hydrus
4:21 PM GMT on November 19, 2012860. Skyepony (Mod)
4:18 PM GMT on November 19, 2012859. Tropicsweatherpr
4:18 PM GMT on November 19, 2012857. Grothar
4:16 PM GMT on November 19, 2012"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy"
WS
P.S. Horatio is not on the blog.
856. slinkyredfoot
4:16 PM GMT on November 19, 2012love and cooperation is what gave humans an advantage and allowed them to do so well. weve gotten away from that ideal. we will become truly special when we unite once again. and when we do, that is the time we can truly take advantage of all ouknowledge and experience. we are nowhere near that yet. we exploit the erth and all forms of life including our own. to be human and a concious being is to be ashamed in this "modern" era. the future is bright though.
855. RTSplayer
4:13 PM GMT on November 19, 2012Wow guy.
You're so obsessed with defending yourself against "religion" that you go off on a tangent addressing something I never even said for two paragraphs, and then you want to mix up ontology with the tooth fairy.
Try to be a little less ridiculous if you want to be taken seriously.
The BB is self conflicted regardless of whatever else or whoever else is involved in the existence of our reality.
You opened your own post with a claim which is absolutely false.
The leading scientists absolutely do NOT have a consensus.
Even people who worked on aspects of the Standard Model of particle physics believe in God, for the same reason I do. It's obscenely profane, actually quite insane, to believe that the universe, and more particularly the life on Earth, exists by chance!
853. Skyepony (Mod)
4:12 PM GMT on November 19, 2012852. PalmBeachWeather
4:08 PM GMT on November 19, 2012851. hydrus
4:07 PM GMT on November 19, 2012850. Tazmanian
4:06 PM GMT on November 19, 2012he wil do it when he dam ready too
849. PalmBeachWeather
4:06 PM GMT on November 19, 2012848. PalmBeachWeather
4:03 PM GMT on November 19, 2012847. calkevin77
4:02 PM GMT on November 19, 2012Well said. I couldn't agree more. Everyone is entitled to their beliefs and to share them as long as they are civil. Def can see that there are all kinds of beliefs and they do come out on this board. Thats for sure. With that said and in lighter news. My fantasy football team did horrible this week. Have a great Monday y'all.
845. ncstorm
3:49 PM GMT on November 19, 2012Have a great day everyone! I can't do the blog with all the negativity about religion..
I hope everyone has an enjoyable thanksgiving with family and friends!
844. imipak
3:45 PM GMT on November 19, 2012https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=false%20a ut hority%20syndrome
843. HouGalv08
3:38 PM GMT on November 19, 2012842. AussieStorm
3:32 PM GMT on November 19, 2012Agreed. His character is very funny. It's a very funny show. We are a series behind you guys.
841. fireflymom
3:27 PM GMT on November 19, 2012840. Neapolitan
3:26 PM GMT on November 19, 2012Anyway, science is the province of scientists practicing empirical research; religion on the other hand, is the province of priests practicing faith. IOW, it's not science's job or goal to "disprove" any of the many elaborate religious creation myths that our species has devised. All science is tasked with doing is finding the truth of the what, where, when, and how via the well-established scientific method. Creation mythologies developed and retold over the course of centuries can often be beautiful and even comforting to those in need. But science they most definitely are not--and no one should make the mistake of confusing the two.I'm agnostic about god like I'm agnostic about the Easter Bunny or the Tooth Fairy: no one has yet proven that they don't exist, either. ;-)
839. AussieStorm
3:20 PM GMT on November 19, 2012It it true the actor is gay.
838. PensacolaDoug
3:20 PM GMT on November 19, 2012Godboy?
Uncool.
837. goosegirl1
3:18 PM GMT on November 19, 2012Good morning, ancient venerable One.
836. Grothar
3:17 PM GMT on November 19, 2012835. goosegirl1
3:16 PM GMT on November 19, 2012On the other hand, for the BB you have nothing except the faulty assumption that space and time were always the same...but then use that faulty assumption to "post-dict" that they weren't always the same...and then you just ignore the self-contradiction.**
We can test the Big Bang theory in a super collider. The observations fit the theory rather well, too. We can see evidence supporting the big bang all over the universe. Link
There will always be something new to discover. Look at how our BB theory was developed- Einstein improved on Newton, and a group of Dutch researchers improved on Einstein's new theory and caused him to release his theory of Special Relativity. Quantum mechanics builds on what we already know via Einstein and Newton and takes a whole new twist on the way the universe runs. There will always be a young, new upstart to come along and poke a hole in your favorite theory.
I will agree- I have never been comfortable with the fudge factor of dark matter. Maybe further research will point where all this "matter" and gone. Maybe it will point us in whole new direction. Maybe the next Einstein is already conducting research with CERN, and a breakthrough discovery will be anounced next week. Who can know? That's the beauty of science- we will never know everything about the universe.
Modified to fix the link!
834. MontanaZephyr
3:16 PM GMT on November 19, 2012Grist.org's Philip Bump dug through NOAA's latest State of the Climate report and discovered this nugget, emphasis his:
The average temperature across land and ocean surfaces during October was 14.63°C (58.23°F). This is 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20th century average and ties with 2008 as the fifth warmest October on record. The record warmest October occurred in 2003 and the record coldest October occurred in 1912. This is the 332nd consecutive month with an above-average temperature. The last below-average month was February 1985. The last October with a below-average temperature was 1976....
Link
833. PalmBeachWeather
3:15 PM GMT on November 19, 2012832. PensacolaDoug
3:15 PM GMT on November 19, 2012pop in for a moment.
Sheldon Cooper is the best sitcom character on tv IMHO.
831. imipak
3:06 PM GMT on November 19, 2012Eh?
830. AussieStorm
3:05 PM GMT on November 19, 2012Your welcome
829. GeorgiaStormz
3:04 PM GMT on November 19, 2012828. Jedkins01
2:55 PM GMT on November 19, 2012While I cannot prove through theory that God exists, that goes for any theory regarding something coming before the Universe because that object exists outside the Universe, and is in essence "bigger" than us, I came to a conclusion God exists through rational analysis of existence, everything is "designed" with incredible complexity, upon which I don't see it happening on its own. I therefore found the biblical God, to my choice, because it makes the most rational sense than other religious forms to me in regards to human social behavior and historical tendencies of man. Furthermore, while many may mock me for saying this, I have experienced God powerfully, such that only lines up with a biblical perspective on God.
Some then may ask me why would I believe in the Bible if many of the writers said things which don't make sense when compared to scientific findings today? Well, look at it this why, if the Bible is true, and God is behind it, God isn't concerned with how scientifically accurate those writers were. They were ancient peoples who had only an archaic understanding of physics and biology, and like I said, that isn't the "goal" of God in the Bible.
There are also other reasons for why I stand where I do. However, I realize it is very offensive to some here, and so I want to keep peace with all as much as possible, if anyone has any questions about the conclusions I come to, you can always pop me a personal message, I'd be glad to hold some questions on philosophy and its relationship to science :)
I only mention all this, because I'm explaining what its like from the view of one who places trust in God but is also a very scientifically minded person who is going to school to be a scientist :)
Yes its a science blog of meteorology focus, but sometimes we do stray a bit off topic, I don't see a problem with that.
827. LargoFl
2:52 PM GMT on November 19, 2012826. LargoFl
2:51 PM GMT on November 19, 2012