Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 475 - 425

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Answer:

Romney

Source: New York Times


They did go bankrupt.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think NBC did WI too early it gave it too Obama but on cnn it shows Mitt Romney a head
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Agreed. Dems are picking up a few seats in the Senate though. Indiana and Massachusetts.


yep...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
If Obama win Florida, we don't have a race IMO.


Agreed. Dems are picking up a few seats in the Senate though. Indiana and Massachusetts.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Warren beats Brown in Mass.


whooops....something Republicans didn't count with
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
00Z NAM is just about done running right now.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Warren beats Brown in Mass.

That's big. That's probably the second biggest race in the county tonight, behind the Presidential of course.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race

Obama
157
49%/ 19,306,395

Romney
153
50%/ 19,996,505

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Warren beats Brown in Mass.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
PA goes to Obama per CNN.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



I don't think any one cares about that right now
I cares.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
464. MTWX
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
wow...what happened to this blog...I was out for some part time job...


Admin gave the go ahead on election banter...


Edit: Teaches me to post without refreshing the page first....
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Quite a negative trough right now. This is going to help the developing nor'easter.




I don't think any one cares about that right now
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race


Obama
157
48%/ 17,880,270

Romney
153
50%/ 18,566,134


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quite a negative trough right now. This is going to help the developing nor'easter.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
President (Florida totals)

President

4,644 of 6,153 (75 %) Precincts Reporting

Barack Obama

3,511,298

50 %

Mitt Romney

3,508,980

50 %
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race

Romney
153
50%/ 18,404,529


Obama
153
48%/ 17,718,416

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Obama now 157...Romney 153
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Both now tied...153 votes
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race

Romney
153
50%/ 17,743,191

Obama
143
49%/ 17,128,416

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Very very close in Florida right now, it is a close election.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
If Obama win Florida, we don't have a race IMO.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

California has been democrat since 1988. People can, and have, won without it.


is very significant nevertheless
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Things are really starting to get suspenseful tonight... plus there is the election. :P



weather and election night...nice
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
451. wxchaser97
2:28 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Answer:

Romney

Source: New York Times)

I live 4-5ish miles from the border of Detroit. My dad is happy that the auto industry got bailed out as it saved his job.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
450. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:27 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that would kill Romney

California has been democrat since 1988. People can, and have, won without it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
449. 1900hurricane
2:27 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Things are really starting to get suspenseful tonight... plus there is the election. :P

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448. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:27 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Actually, it's expected that CA will go for Obama. That's why pundits have been saying it is key for Romney to win the battleground states like Ohio and Florida.


Hout Ohio is leaning towards Obama though
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
447. GeoffreyWPB
2:27 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
I'll be fair...Give Hawaii to Obama and Alaska to Romney.
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446. whitewabit
2:26 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Admin allowed results of the election to be posted. After that it escalated quickly.


But only for tonight ..tomorrow back to weather !!
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445. Tazmanian
2:25 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
YAY next polls closeing in 24mins
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
444. Xyrus2000
2:25 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that would kill Romney


Actually, it's expected that CA will go for Obama. That's why pundits have been saying it is key for Romney to win the battleground states like Ohio and Florida.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
443. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:23 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Admin allowed results of the election to be posted. After that it escalated quickly.


ohhh..I see...thanks
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
442. wxchaser97
2:23 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
wow...what happened to this blog...I was out for some part time job...

Admin allowed results of the election to be posted. After that it escalated quickly.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
441. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:22 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Results Presidential Race

Romney
153
50%/ 16,000,011

Obama
143
48%/ 15,317,735

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
440. Neapolitan
2:22 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Question, who badmouthed the auto industry?
Answer:

Romney

Source: New York Times
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
439. nymore
2:22 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that would kill Romney
why California always goes Democrat
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438. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:19 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


California goes to Obama :)


that would kill Romney
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
437. Bluestorm5
2:19 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Again: I never said it wasn't expected. I'm merely pointing out the rejective aspects of Romney losing both of the states he's primarily called home, Michigan and Massachusetts.

Anyway, at the moment Obama is up 55-45 in Ohio. According to exit polls, badmouthing the auto industry in a state with a lot of automotive workers may not have been a particularly brilliant campaign strategy.
Question, who badmouthed the auto industry?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
436. Tazmanian
2:19 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


California goes to Obama :)



nic try
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435. GeoffreyWPB
2:18 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:



BOOO


California goes to Obama :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
434. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:17 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Results Presidential Race

Romney
153
51%/ 15,422,688

Obama
123
48%/ 14,670,603

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
433. Tazmanian
2:17 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yesss!!!



BOOO
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
432. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:17 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Pennsylvania goes to Obama.


yesss!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
431. MAweatherboy1
2:16 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting whitewabit:


NBC just said Romney is up 193 votes in Florida out of 6.7 million votes

I'd say that qualifies as slightly, lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
430. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:16 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
wow...what happened to this blog...I was out for some part time job...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
429. whitewabit
2:16 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Romney now slightly up in FL, also with a slight lead in NC, if he loses either of those he's done. I think he'll probably take both of them though.


NBC just said Romney is up 193 votes in Florida out of 6.7 million votes
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
428. GeoffreyWPB
2:16 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Pennsylvania goes to Obama.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
427. Neapolitan
2:15 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's expected though...
Again: I never said it wasn't expected. I'm merely pointing out the rejective aspects of Romney losing both of the states he's primarily called home, Michigan and Massachusetts.

Anyway, at the moment Obama is up 55-45 in Ohio. According to exit polls, badmouthing the auto industry in a state with a lot of automotive workers may not have been a particularly brilliant campaign strategy.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
426. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:13 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Results Presidential Race

Romney
153
51%/ 14,185,025


Obama
123
48%/ 13,458,856

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
425. MAweatherboy1
2:12 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Romney now slightly up in FL, also with a slight lead in NC, if he loses either of those he's done. I think he'll probably take both of them though.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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