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Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Why would you assume that "most" would agree with you?
Because as a climate and weather site, by definition most here would seem to be pro-science. But I didn't mean to offend by including any of you who are against science.

NBC just called the election for Obama after calling Ohio in his favor.
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At 132hrs, a low has developed and is closed by 1 isobar.
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Obama wins Oregon.
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Obama takes Iowa and New Mexico, waiting for FL and OH.
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Obama now 249 votes
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Why would you assume that "most" would agree with you?


I think he counts the pluses.
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Obama wins Iowa.
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00Z GFS
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Should begin to see development soon, 120hrs.
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Obama will likely win.
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476 PensacolaDoug: Ya'll want 20 trillion debt owed mostly to the Chicoms? There's a plan for the future.

Yep, I do. Ifn they ain't very very very nice to US, they ain't gonna get a cent back.
Owe the bank ten thousand dollars, and the bank owns you.
Owe the bank ten billion dollars, and you own the bank.
Besides:
1) China is less communist than BainsCapitalManagement.
2) Japan's USbond holdings are now once again greater than China's, with SaudiArabia's close behind.
In case you haven't noticed, Japan and China ain't ever been close friends exactly... still aren't.
And without US protection, SaudiArabia ain't a nation, it's fresh meat... which is why SaudiArabia broke the ArabOilEmbargo.
3) When the World economy is heading toward the drain, investment monies are poured into the USdollar and USbonds as safe-havens.
Right now 30year-USbond yields are so low, they're paying US to take their money.
4) And sovereign/governmental USbond holdings are dwarfed by those held by private investment funds, especially including US pension funds.

The bottom line being that right now there's no place for the majority of investment funds to go but down the tubes should the US cease selling its Treasury-bonds.
May not like it, but that's the way the way it is has been since the beginning of WWII. And it'll take at least that long to come up with a viable replacement... which takes us into the 22ndCentury.
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Results Presidential Race

Obama
243
48%/ 34,835,179
Romney
203
50%/ 36,378,883
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Romney wins North Carolina.
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243votes for Obama
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Obama Probably win now.
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According to CNN, Obama has 238 and Romney has 191.
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According to Fox News, Obama has 244 and Romney has 193.
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Results Presidential Race

Obama
238
48%/ 34,453,820

Romney
203
50%/ 36,010,520


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CA, HI, WI, and WA is going to Obama
ID, NC, and MT go to Romney

CNN projections.
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Quoting beell:


We might be a little better off, Neap. No doubt.

We utimately may be much better off if the majority of them could learn to balance a checkbook. There is some empirical evidence to support that as well.


I agree. I haven't met a single person, progressive or conservative, who thinks spending more than you take in is a viable long-term solution. I think the big disagreement between the parties right now is not WHETHER to balance the budget, but HOW to balance it.
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Quoting vanwx:
My weather report says 12 more days of elections.

I am with you. I see a long stormy period no matter who wins and I don't expect a quick victory for either side. In Texas our polls usually close at 7:00 pm but Galveston county is going until around 9:00 because they couldn't get the machines going for quite a while. Some where I read NJ residents have until Friday to get their absentee baliots in.
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wow...Obama 238
Romney 203
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Time to see what the GFS does tropical development wise. Right now we are at 84hrs but development shouldn't occur until 120+hrs.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:




Yup, that's the one. It's been looking good all day.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:




Nice blob. Though, it is highly unlikely to develop.
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MN goes to Obama
AZ goes to Romney

Projections from CNN.
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At 54hrs it is still slowly going NE. Good thing there isn't a lot of artic air or there would be some pretty big problems.
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543. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
At least most here would agree that it's good to see yet another anti-science politician like Todd Akin get the heave-ho. Everything else aside, this would be a much better nation and world if the entire slate of uneducated types would simply leave Washington in the hands of grown-ups who support empirical science.


We might be a little better off, Neap. No doubt.

We utimately may be much better off if the majority of them could learn to balance a checkbook. There is some empirical evidence to support that as well.
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I like the good 50/50 split of elections and weather right now.

Less tab changing.
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00Z GFS at 48 hours:

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Google's election page is pretty cool:

LINK HERE

It currently shows Obama with slim leads in Ohio, Florida, and Colorado. But there are still plenty of votes to count...
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GFS slowly moves it NE and slowly weakens it after 18hrs, here's 42hrs.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:
By the way, who's actually watching the tropics at the time? There's something raising a stink in the extreme southern Caribbean.


Tropics, how did they vote?
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Results Presidential Race


Romney
184
50%/ 32,067,353


Obama
167
48%/ 30,647,936

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Nor'easter in the making in the amid of election.

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I know we have the election, but the nor'easter is also important. At 18hrs it is at 990mb and snow is falling close to the coast.

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Quoting Civicane49:
00Z GFS at 18 hours:


That's much weaker than the NAM. It was ~980 mb at the same point in its run.
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By the way, who's actually watching the tropics at the time? There's something raising a stink in the extreme southern Caribbean.
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New York, New York (Manhattan)
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
Statement as of 9:31 PM EST on November 06, 2012
Expires 6:00 AM EST on November 08, 2012

... Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect from 11 am Wednesday
to 6 am EST Thursday...

* locations... New York Harbor.

* Tidal departures... around 3.5 feet Wednesday afternoon and
around 3 ft late Wednesday night.

* Beach erosion... large breaking waves of 8 to 12 feet on top of
any surge could cause significant additional beach erosion and
overwash.

* Timing... around the times of high tide early Wednesday
afternoon and again after midnight Wednesday night.

* Impacts... moderate coastal flooding is expected mainly during
Wednesday afternoon. Minor coastal flooding to localized
moderate coastal flooding is expected late Wednesday afternoon
into early Thursday morning. Locally major flooding could
occur in places due to changes to underwater slopes and/or
loss of protective dunes both caused by Sandy. Widespread
flooding of vulnerable shore roads and/or basements will
hamper recovery efforts.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is expected or
occurring. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life
and property.

... NY Harbor water levels for Wednesday afternoon...

Coastal... ... ... ... time of... ... forecast total... ..Flood... ...
location... ... ... ..high Tide... ..Water level... ... .category...
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..(Mllw)... ... ... ... ... ... ...

The Battery NYC... ..137 PM... ... ... ..7.75-8.25... ..Moderate...
Bergen Point NY... ..128 PM... ... ... ..8.35-8.85... ..Moderate...

... NY Harbor water levels for late Wednesday night...

Coastal... ... ... ... time of... ... forecast total... ..Flood... ...
location... ... ... ..high Tide... ..Water level... ... .category...
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..(Mllw)... ... ... ... ... ... ...

The Battery NYC... ..241 am... ... ... ..6.5-7.6... ... .minor... ...
Bergen Point NY... ..230 am... ... ... ..7.2-8.3... ... .minor... ...

... Ocean water levels for Wednesday afternoon...

Coastal... ... ... ... time of... ... forecast total... ..Flood... ...
location... ... ... ..high Tide... ..Water level... ... .category...
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..(Mllw)... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Montauk Point NY... .311 PM... ... ... ..5.65-6.15... ..Moderate...

... Ocean water levels for late Wednesday night...

Coastal... ... ... ... time of... ... forecast total... ..Flood... ...
location... ... ... ..high Tide... ..Water level... ... .category...
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..(Mllw)... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Montauk Point NY... .352 am... ... ... ..4.0-5.1... ... .minor... ...





HIGH WIND WARNING
Statement as of 9:35 PM EST on November 06, 2012
Expires 4:00 AM EST on November 08, 2012

... High Wind Warning remains in effect from 2 PM Wednesday to
4 am EST Thursday...

* locations... New York City... Long Island... coastal
Connecticut... Hudson County... and southern Westchester County.

* Hazards... damaging winds.

* Winds... north 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. Isolated
gusts up to 70 mph possible.

* Timing... Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

* Impacts... winds of this magnitude will be capable of producing
downed trees and power lines... as well as minor property
damage.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.
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Quoting vanwx:
My weather report says 12 more days of elections.


I could not take another 12 hours!
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00Z GFS at 18 hours:

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529. vanwx
My weather report says 12 more days of elections.
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If Oboma wins we may not have elections in 2016. Presedent for life comrade? sound familair
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The 00Z GFS is now running, here is 12hrs.
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At least most here would agree that it's good to see yet another anti-science politician like Todd Akin get the heave-ho. Everything else aside, this would be a much better nation and world if the entire slate of uneducated types would simply leave Washington in the hands of grown-ups who support empirical science.
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525. MTWX
Quoting Grothar:
You all realize that tomorrow, one way or another, half the blog is going to hate the other half. Just remember, we all love our country.


Some of us are neutral, and don't care either way...
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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