September 2012: Earth's warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

September 2012 was tied with 2005 as the globe's warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperature records begin in 1880. NASA rated September 2012 the 4th warmest September on record. September 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average September global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2012 in his September 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2012, which tied 2005 as the warmest September on record. Parts of east central Russia observed record warmth, as did parts of Venezuela, French Guinea, and northern Brazil. Nearly all of South America was much warmer than average, as were western Australia and central to eastern Europe. Far eastern Russia, a few regions in southern Africa, and parts of China were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C above average as of October 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch, and gives a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place during the October - November - December period. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest measured, since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record in September
Arctic sea ice extent during September reached its lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of October 14, Arctic sea extent had set a new record low for the date every day since July 27. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my September 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

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GFS at 324 hours..something IS there alright...........
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Humidity is way up here now, gee outside is awful right now, guess the front is getting closer..hope it cools us down some.............................................. ......
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28. 7544
Quoting SFLWeatherman:



i see its bringing the holloween ghost storm back
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Quoting overwash12:
Is that a Hurricane for the East coast on one of the forecast models?
more models are putting something there, so far no one knows What it will be, I guess we can assume a tropical storm at least..but..Nothing Has formed yet..we'll see, still 9-10 days out and the models Have been wrong before huh
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Quoting luvtogolf:
The key is that September was the warmest "on record". It has surely been warmer before and will be colder again.
Certainly. Only we humans weren't around before, so that's a moot point. That's like saying that since the planet has been hit by giant comets in the past, one hitting now wouldn't be a big deal.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 65.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 16633
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

...PAUL HEADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...NEARING CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 114.4W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEST IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY AND THE
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...FOLLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 MPH...60 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 52
MPH...84 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 16633
20 luvtogolf The key is that September was the warmest "on record". It has surely been warmer before and will be colder again.

Yeah, and the Sun will burn out eventually. Your point?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
And a record Cryoshpere Today Sea Ice Area Anomaly today (Never since records began, has there been a larger anomaly from the 1979-2008 baseline, as calculated by the Polar Research Group at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01 7d3cba7bb3970c-pi
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Raf
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The key is that September was the warmest "on record". It has surely been warmer before and will be colder again.
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I'm on a mobile device atm so I can't post a picture, but the latest MW on Rafael shows a really defined eye.
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blog2260comment32 CybrTeddy: Well, the ATCF has yet to take back the upgrade.
AL, 17, 2012101512, , BEST, 0, 226N, 656W, 65, 983, HU

The ATCF reports "the conditions on ground" -- ie as of 15Oct12pmGMT Rafael had hurricane-force MaxSusWinds -- but it doesn't do status upgrades
The NHC makes the call on whether or not eg Rafael has had those MaxSusWinds over a long enough period of time to have earned Cat.1 hurricane-status.
Basicly what the NHC said by leaving the ATCF report unaltered is, "Unless something totally unexpected occurs, Raphael will be categorized as a Hurricane within the next 6hours."
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This whole business is akin to arguing over whether or not puppies are cute...except that the "puppies aren't cute" minority fringe has a really loud amplifier...
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Good afternoon all. thank you Dr. M. Nea, the explanations about the differences in the poles is real simple, because I understand what is being said and I am not a scientist. In fact, a lot of science to me is well...magic. To paraphrase the info that I have read and other people have explained, if the Antartic sea ice is expanding, then we are definitely in trouble because it means the glaciers on the continent of Antartica are melting and sliding into the ocean. The Artic sea ice disappearing means we are in trouble as well due to the heat absorption of the ocean without sea ice cover. Put in very simplistic language, the earth is burning the candle on both ends. And guess what folks! We are in the middle!
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I will monitor this wave

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Is that a Hurricane for the East coast on one of the forecast models?
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It seems that every time a storm is forecast to affect land, the NHC gets extremely quiet, contradictory, and conservative about its intensity. Maybe a degree is necessary so as to not cause panic, but Bermudians won't panic haha. They'll be sipping a Dark N' Stormy when it's.... dark and stormy.

A central pressure of 983 mb and a presentation of an intensifying category 1 hurricane does not a tropical storm make. I think it'll be 80 mph at the 5 pm.

And yes, I am talking about Rafael.
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5214
SFLWeatherman - I don't like that graphic... Looks like we are in for at least a down pour...
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.
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Quoting StormHype:
Interested in seeing a future objective blog post on this. Not saying it contradicts GW theories, just want to get some more understanding on it as to why and if this the earth trying to balance its climate or not.
Sea Ice at record high in Antarctic.
Here you go: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comm ent.html?entrynum=2237
Quoting originalLT:
Thanks Doc. But also to point out, The ice coverage in or at the South Pole has been increasing. Very interesting-- Is the Earth balancing things out?
Unfortunately, that's not how it works. The two polars are quite different, as are the dynamics driving their individual climates. (For starters, the Arctic is an ocean surrounded by land; Antarctica is land surrounded by oceans.) Many excellent explanatory pieces have been written on the subject by a wide array of knowledgeable scientists; I would be glad to provide you--or anyone else interested--with a list of links to those articles.
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I'm sort of weirdly hoping for another winter-without-a-winter for the U.S. Middle Atlantic states, like last year. I have to admit, that was really nice to be bike riding in short sleeves all through March.

But I doubt it will happen -- we're overdue for one of those long-duration jet stream blocks that bring extended cold blasts and major storms. We'll see.
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Thanks Doc. But also to point out, The ice coverage in or at the South Pole has been increasing. Very interesting-- Is the Earth balancing things out?
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Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5214
Interested in seeing a future objective blog post on this. Not saying it contradicts GW theories, just want to get some more understanding on it as to why and if this the earth trying to balance its climate or not.
Sea Ice at record high in Antarctic.
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sobering.. thank you Dr. M for this reminder, perhaps a subtle response to some pretty ridiculous news stories afloat
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Blogs moving fast today!
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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