98L may develop this weekend; 97L no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:57 AM GMT on October 11, 2012

A tropical wave located about 350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) is headed west-northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. The disturbance has a modest amount of spin and a large amount of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops and Barbados radar. The thunderstorms have shown more organization this morning, but there is no obvious surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. This morning's ASCAT pass showed top winds of 30 - 35 mph near 15°N, 55°W. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C. With wind shear expected to diminish on Saturday to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, 98L may be able to develop into a tropical cyclone this weekend. The disturbance has a high amount of support for development among the reliable computer models. The NOGAPS model predicts 98L will develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Sunday, about 400 hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. The GFS model predicts 98L will develop on Saturday, when the center will be very close to the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. The ECMWF model predicts a more westerly path for 98L into the southeast Bahama Islands, with development delayed until Monday. The models are unified in forecasting that 98L will turn to the north by Monday and be drawn into a trough of low pressure. It does not appear that 98L will be a threat to the U.S. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit 98L on Friday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Invest 97L east of the Bahamas
A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the central Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) is headed slowly southwards. The disturbance is well-organized, with a developing surface circulation and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 97L, and the shear has pushed all the storm's heavy thunderstorms to its east side. Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 76 Comments: 31499
Quoting VR46L:
97l RGB looks rather cute ...reminds me of michael forming except Michael was a definite fish..

There is no doubt in my mind that that is Patty.

Hey I made a blog enrty.Do you mind checking it out?.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

98L is now well to the West of 55W which is the initialization point from which the 8 am model runs take the system essentially on a NW track. In the absence of a pronounced move now to the NW 98L will enter the Caribbean much farther South and West than the models call for.


At 13 N and 59 W approx. a pass South of Barbados seems almost certain now.


Hello kman! I agree with you completely. I wish we had some recon to help with the model runs...
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
98L RGB ..Big and fat ..

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7184
97l RGB looks rather cute ...reminds me of michael forming except Michael was a definite fish..

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7184
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

98L is now well to the West of 55W which is the initialization point from which the 8 am model runs take the system essentially on a NW track. In the absence of a pronounced move now to the NW 98L will enter the Caribbean much farther South and West than the models call for.


At 13 N and 59 W approx. a pass South of Barbados seems almost certain now.


Good morning Kman. Do you see 98L being a TD/TS in the Eastern Caribbean,and how you see Puerto Rico being affected.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 16682
Quoting TomballTXPride:


My thinking exactly. Only this one won't have to be geo-engineered (seeded with silver iodine). :-]

Isaac was geo-engineered?
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


My thinking exactly. Only this one won't have to be geo-engineered (seeded with silver iodine). :-]


Having gone through it personally, I KNEW there was something odd about that storm. Now I know what it was. :)
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Time a flip a coin. I call heads it develops!

Yeah, I agree. I mean it's not the 1st time Dr Masters and the NHC disagreeing but both are 50%.
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JMA model..

120 hours


144 hours
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 109N, 579W, 30, 1008, LO


Good morning

98L is now well to the West of 55W which is the initialization point from which the 8 am model runs take the system essentially on a NW track. In the absence of a pronounced move now to the NW 98L will enter the Caribbean much farther South and West than the models call for.


At 13 N and 59 W approx. a pass South of Barbados seems almost certain now.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16683
ESL by LSU Hurricane Page



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Morning all... Today feels like the first day of fall here... I actually saw a couple people with jackets on... lol

I gotta say, it's a welcome relief from the unrelenting heat of the last few days. Yesterday afternoon was about as intolerable as it gets heatwise.

I'm watching 97L now to see if it will hold together long enough to bring any unsettled weather to the Bahamas this weekend. It's looking better than I expected.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Joneszin' for some Rainbow.



Whoa. That's a huge circle.



So Dr Masters says 97L won't develop and 98L will develop yet the NHC gives both 50%. What gives?????
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Indeed! T#'s just shot up, too. This could be a large system once she gets goin'.


like an Isaac...too big for itself ?
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7184
Quoting wxchaser97:

It all depends on the timing of everything whether we get a big or small event. I like these early blogs as I m still at home to read them.
Possibly depends more on what fires where in the next 48 hours. Already looks like moisture (therefore instability) may be exceeding expectations.

And to TA13, re: your comment comparing SPC and NHC forecasters. Can't do it. They are forecasting two different entities. SPC forecasts potential. NHC forecasts known entities. SPC deals with multiple unknowns and interactions that cannot be seen until they happen. They will always err on the side of caution. They have to.
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Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
today's date is

10-11-12..

too bad there isnt a pick 6..LOL
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12z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2012101112, , BEST, 0, 109N, 579W, 30, 1008, LO
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 16682
Quoting SLU:


I hope common sense prevails later this morning.


Seriously? Ok, they have to declare this thing at 11 am, else they look ridiculous.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


no, no.. that is the India people that do that at times.


Oh yea, they're pretty bad at declaring cyclones when they need to be one.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 67884
. the stalled out front dips all the way into the nw carib the next place of interest?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Try the Japanese Forecasting Agency, they don't declare cyclones until they're halfway to hurricane status, and that's the norm.


no, no.. that is the India people that do that at times.
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GFS at 96 hours,97 died out and 98 headed northward.......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 67884
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE, FORMER BOB01-2012
11:30 AM IST October 11 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The depression over Bangladesh and adjoining Tripura moved northeastwards and weakened into a well marked low pressure area over Tripura and adjoining Mizoram and Bangladesh.

The is the last bulletin for this system
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Reunion Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET October 11 2012
======================================

Convective activity is moderate to strong, but fluctuating, and concentrated between 65.0E and 85.0E
north of 12.0S. In this area, multispectral satellite imagery suggests a broad clockwise circulation whose the center can be localized very approximately near 6.7S 74.5E at 0900 AM UTC. The central pressure is estimated at 1007 hPa (observation Diego-Garcia at 0900 AM UTC). 0355 AM UTC ASCAT pass shows winds at about 10-15 knots, reaching 20-25 kt in the southern semi-circle.

The low is currently well supplied poleward. Equatorward low level inflow is weaker, but should
improve within the next days. Upper level vertical wind shear is moderate on the western edge of
high pressures located in the east. Within the next 72 hours, available numerical weather prediction models forecast that this low will keep a fast enough movement west southwestward, and should slowly deepen with fairly good environmental conditions. Saturday and especially Sunday, it is expected that vertical wind shear will decrease and so the low should more clearly deepen.

For the next 36 hours, development of a tropical depression is not expected. Beyond, potential becomes fair to good.
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Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #53
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 11 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 19.5N 128.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.1N 128.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 20.7N 128.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.6N 128.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
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Good morning folks, Fantastic weather here today!!....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 67884
Thanks Jeff...
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T# up to 3.0/3.0? This needs an upgrade.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Joneszin' for some Rainbow.



Whoa. That's a huge circle.



98L looks epic in rainbow LOL
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7184
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6124
30. DDR
Good morning
One can see the 98L's center here on the Barbados radarLink
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Possible location of 98L center to be just west of convection.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 16682
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hope so too.

That equates to a 50 mph tropical storm.

It has kept convection, since yesterday at noon, and has continously been firing it, the NHC has to realize she isnt going to be pretty storm... But she is a storm.
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97L has it's center exposed on the sw side, barely, but I still believe the NHC could declare it anytime, if they wanted to.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Relax. We'll get Patti one way or another. And I'm sure we'll all share our moments of glory with her. Patience is a virtue.


My impatience is a flaw in my character lol..


anyways 97L from RAMMB ..loop embedded

Link
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7184
Quoting SLU:
OMG

11/1145 UTC 11.4N 57.0W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic
11/1145 UTC 25.6N 72.6W T3.0/3.0 97L -- Atlantic

I hope so too.

That equates to a 50 mph tropical storm.
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Quoting SLU:


I hope common sense prevails later this morning.
97L is our Patty I know it will be dead soon but they need to declare it fast.
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97 is a persistant fighter. strong as ever this morning surprised 98 only has a 1.0
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Thank you Dr. Masters
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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