98L may develop early next week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on October 10, 2012

A tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 98L) is headed west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression early next week. The disturbance has a modest amount of spin and a large amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops, but there is no sign of a surface circulation. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 98L, the atmosphere is moist, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C. With wind shear expected to rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, Wednesday night though Friday, any development the next few days should be slow. The shear is due to an upper-level trough of low pressure centered a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Once 98L passes beyond the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, the shearing winds of the trough will diminish to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. Most of the models predict that 98L will show increasing development beginning on Saturday. The NOGAPS model has 98L developing into a tropical depression on Monday, a few hundred miles northeast of the southeastern Bahama Islands. The GFS model is much slower with the system, predicting it will develop into a tropical depression on Monday, a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Moisture from 98L should affect the Lesser Antilles Islands on Thursday and Friday, and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Friday and Saturday. It is uncertain if heavy rains from 98L will affect the Dominican Republic early next week; the storm may stay too far to the northeast. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Friday morning. The long range fate of 98L is uncertain; the ECMWF model shows 98L becoming absorbed by a cold front and bringing heavy rains to Canada and New England on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, while the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that 98L will stay out to sea for at least the next week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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365. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 AM PhST October 11 2012
========================================

SUBJECT: Typhoon "NINA" continues to move northwestward slowly

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina [967 hPa] located at 19.3°N 128.9°E or 790 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboard of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboards of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves caused by by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
This actually doesn't look like much more than a 20% atm...


Hi baha...Invest 97L, while having a well-defined circulation, has not had persistent deep convection near the center. It's possibly a 25-kt TD but a strong subtropical jet max is crossing S. FL, the Bahamas, and cntrl/nrn Cuba, which will decapitate the system soon.
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I don't see how 98L is going to miss the Caribbean. It's not gaining a lot of latitude, and I don't see any steering forces that could immediately turn it northwest.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
It looks broad enough to at least put you in the running.


00Z GFS will soon run... I hope for a slight west trend.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


I really hope for some weather my friend.. and while I'm 200miles east of PR I'm still not sure to get rain.
It looks broad enough to at least put you in the running.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Auroras over North America:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Very cool pics
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359. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


I really hope for some weather my friend.. and while I'm 200miles east of PR I'm still not sure to get rain.


fingers crossed
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Quoting SLU:


Well the angle of approach makes it very difficult to predict where it will hit and the impacts. Would be easier if it was a normal east-west approach.


I really hope for some weather my friend.. and while I'm 200miles east of PR I'm still not sure to get rain.
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00Z NAM

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356. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


Caribboy is well east of PR.. so maybe he will still get some rain. But more importantly, these mets don't seem to have a good handle on 98L for the time being. Yesterday night they said the same as tonight while this morning they looked more excited...


Well the angle of approach makes it very difficult to predict where it will hit and the impacts. Would be easier if it was a normal east-west approach.
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355. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION BOB01-2012
5:30 AM IST October 11 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Depression Close To Bangladesh

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over northeast Bay of Bengal moved northward and lays centered near 22.5N 91.0E, close to Hatia (Bangladesh). The system is likely to move northward and cross Bangladesh coast near Hatia within a few hours.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I just compiled another blog. Enjoy.
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Quoting kmanislander:
It's entirely possible that 98L's lack of motion today could allow the steering highs to bridge and close off any motion to the NW. Something to watch for.

I was wondering about this. It seems pretty likely that declared or not, there's a good chance it'll be headed back towards the west at some point.
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Quoting SLU:


I hope Carib boy is not on tonight .....


Caribboy is well east of PR.. so maybe he will still get some rain. But more importantly, these mets don't seem to have a good handle on 98L for the time being. Yesterday night they said the same as tonight while this morning they looked more excited...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
20%? Maybe someone can shed some light on this, because I've seen far, far, far worse declared a tropical cyclone, we all have.
This actually doesn't look like much more than a 20% atm...
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BTW, what's happening in the BoH? It looks like they had a Twave or something in the area earlier today, but there's nothing analysed at the surface there...
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348. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 PM AST WED OCT 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW JUST WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS TOWARD PR OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS. TUTT WILL
THEN FILL SAT AND GET ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROF OVR THE WRN ATLC.
INVEST 98L MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTUALLY OVR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS KEEPING THE RISK OF DAILY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. TROPICAL
WAVE ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW
AROUND 15 MPH OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REACHING ST. LUCIA BY
FRI AFTERNOON. LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH WIND SHEAR
UPWARDS OF 20KT OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AFFECTING THIS WAVE WHICH
WILL LIKELY HINDER ANY SIG DEVELOPMENT. THE 00Z EARLY TRACK CYCLE
GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
GFS AND GFES RH AND WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM AND POTENTIALLY SUBTROPICAL WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AND VERY
LITTLE WEATHER ON ITS WRN SEMICIRCLE. THE 21Z SREF ARE THE ONLY
ONES SUGGESTING GOOD RAINS FOR ERN PR AND THE USVI WHILE THE MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF...GFS AND GFES MEAN KEEP THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO
THE EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. UNLESS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF PR
AND INTO THE DOM REPUBLIC SIGNIFICANT RAINS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM.


I hope Carib boy is not on tonight .....
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00z Surface analysis.

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Whoo hoo!!! Finally have blog access at home again!!!!

Evening all... I got so depressed to discover that I missed the invest that pretty much passed over my head that I finally got around to doing something about my internet access at home... so finally have a DSL hookup.

I'm still far too busy with work related things but I may get a bit of a break [finally] for the Discovery Day holiday this weekend... and it looks like 98L has come along to be the "October surprise" of the tropical wx blog...

lol
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98L continues to consolidate.

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343. etxwx
Good discussion about the potential severe weather outbreak this weekend. Let's hope it stays in the "potential" category, provides lots of interesting interaction to analyze, and then doesn't really develop.

I'm out for the night, but since it's slow, here are two links in case ya'll need something to read:

Awwww...disappointing news from CNET here:
Countless childhood dreams dissolved today upon the news that the calculated half-life of DNA figures out to around 521 years, all but invalidating the chances of a real-life "Jurassic Park."


I confess, I'm doing more than my part to help America with this:
From Reuters Health: The higher a country's chocolate consumption, the more Nobel laureates it spawns per capita, according to findings released today in the New England Journal of Medicine.

G'nite everyone...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Water vapor loop looks that way. On HPC 0121Z Surface analysis, though, looks like closed low well inland where CA, AZ and NV hold hands.

So what am I missing?
:)
Besides a brain.
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(modifeied)
NVMD. Surface, Mid, Upper.
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97L and 98L.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 PM AST WED OCT 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW JUST WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS TOWARD PR OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS. TUTT WILL
THEN FILL SAT AND GET ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROF OVR THE WRN ATLC.
INVEST 98L MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTUALLY OVR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS KEEPING THE RISK OF DAILY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. TROPICAL
WAVE ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW
AROUND 15 MPH OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REACHING ST. LUCIA BY
FRI AFTERNOON. LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH WIND SHEAR
UPWARDS OF 20KT OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AFFECTING THIS WAVE WHICH
WILL LIKELY HINDER ANY SIG DEVELOPMENT. THE 00Z EARLY TRACK CYCLE
GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
GFS AND GFES RH AND WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM AND POTENTIALLY SUBTROPICAL WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AND VERY
LITTLE WEATHER ON ITS WRN SEMICIRCLE. THE 21Z SREF ARE THE ONLY
ONES SUGGESTING GOOD RAINS FOR ERN PR AND THE USVI WHILE THE MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF...GFS AND GFES MEAN KEEP THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO
THE EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. UNLESS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF PR
AND INTO THE DOM REPUBLIC SIGNIFICANT RAINS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM.
Im sad now :(
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336. wxmod
Quoting luvtogolf:


Looking at that chart I have no idea what it means.


The chart shows the difference between "normal" and present sea ice area between 2007 (the previous record sea ice low area) and today. It shows that the anomaly this year is lasting much longer than usual, which means that, though sea ice area is now increasing, it is not increasing as fast as it usually does at this time of year. More info is available at:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 PM AST WED OCT 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW JUST WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS TOWARD PR OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS. TUTT WILL
THEN FILL SAT AND GET ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROF OVR THE WRN ATLC.
INVEST 98L MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTUALLY OVR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS KEEPING THE RISK OF DAILY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. TROPICAL
WAVE ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW
AROUND 15 MPH OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REACHING ST. LUCIA BY
FRI AFTERNOON. LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH WIND SHEAR
UPWARDS OF 20KT OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AFFECTING THIS WAVE WHICH
WILL LIKELY HINDER ANY SIG DEVELOPMENT. THE 00Z EARLY TRACK CYCLE
GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
GFS AND GFES RH AND WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM AND POTENTIALLY SUBTROPICAL WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AND VERY
LITTLE WEATHER ON ITS WRN SEMICIRCLE. THE 21Z SREF ARE THE ONLY
ONES SUGGESTING GOOD RAINS FOR ERN PR AND THE USVI WHILE THE MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF...GFS AND GFES MEAN KEEP THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO
THE EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. UNLESS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF PR
AND INTO THE DOM REPUBLIC SIGNIFICANT RAINS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM.
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18z NOGAPS

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332. wxmod
Arctic sea ice anomaly still dismal. From "cryosphere today" website.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The mid- to upper-level disturbance that will be responsible for the two-day severe weather and tornado outbreak is currently moving ashore the coast of California.



Soon enough but not quite yet. It's been anchored off the coast for quite some time. But, it'll be off the races in the near future.


Link
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98L is slowly consolidating.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
That's it for me for tonight. Both systems doing little or nothing new tonight so back in the morning.

Good night all.
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great




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Quoting beell:


No, no, no. It's gonna sit right there in the low-level trough til Friday.

;-)


54 hours from 12Z today 97L is approaching the coast of Cuba ( CMC )

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The mid- to upper-level disturbance that will be responsible for the two-day severe weather and tornado outbreak is currently moving ashore the coast of California.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
98l looks to be sitting and spinning in this shortwave loop. Going nowhere at the moment

98L shortwave
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324. beell
Quoting Grothar:


You nailed it.


No, no, no. It's gonna sit right there in the low-level trough til Friday.

;-)
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Quoting MTWX:
Kori,
What is your opinion on the severe weather potential for this weekend?


The trough out west looks fairly solid. Right now I am thinking Friday will be the worst of the two days, as instability may decrease some on Saturday, at which point the magnitude of severe weather will be contingent on shear levels.
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Vury STRONG umbrella I have!

: )
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Ahem...

I resemble that remark.

: (


Do you own an umbrella ??
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Quoting kmanislander:


97L is being forced to the SE by a building high from the NW while ... forces 97L to the SW


Ahem...

I resemble that remark.

: (
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
319. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Err...Kansas.


Kinda thought so if it was a Friday forecast sounding of interest.

Thanks, again.

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318. MTWX
Quoting kmanislander:


97L is not connected to a front. The NHC looks for several characteristics before it will classify a system. These include a closed low, sufficient convection and persistence of organization. For them to go from 10% to TD would, IMO, require more than we have seen with this feature today although I was quite impressed with both the convection and the ASCAT pass. The last thing they are likely to do is classify this a TD and then be forced to downgrade tomorrow morning :-)


Thanks Kman! I realized that it wasn't, hence deleting my comment. ;)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

SAFB...?


Whoa, good catch. I meant SAB.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


That probably has something to do with it. But more importantly, SAFB came back with a 1.5 at 0z. Generally, classification does not result from T numbers less than 2.0.

SAFB...?

Oh, you mean SAB.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
315. MTWX
Kori,
What is your opinion on the severe weather potential for this weekend?
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